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So Round 3 is upon us and Derby 43 sees the winless Owen Dockers take on the Eagles after they copped another embarrassing pasting at the hands of Hawthorn at the MCG by exactly the same margin as our GF disappointment to end an otherwise successful 2015.
Wait wut...
Wrong preview *en
West Coast v Western Bulldogs : Elimination Final 2016
The qualification rounds are over and the real season begins on Thursday night when our Eagles play an elimination final against the curiously named Western Bulldogs who aren't even the westernmost team in their own eastern state. Anyway in a battle of the "West" teams lets hope the Bulldogs put up as much fight as the other WA based team did this year - lets not worry about 4 points, we'll just aim for 4 wins, bank the draft pick and a 5 year contract extension.
I digress. (Shupe - note the fullstop)
If you'd told me at the start of the season we'd be playing a week 1 home final with 16 wins I would have been doing cartwheels on the assumption we'd finished top 2 again (16 wins was good enough last year). Alas we finished 6th, the first side in history to do so with 16 wins, so instead we have a sudden death final first up against the Western Bulldogs who are entitled to be a little bemused that 15 wins rewards them with a week 1 trip interstate to face elimination.
The Form
West Coast - After a season that was harder to fire up than an 80 year old nun (Round 1 aside when we were 4th we were never inside the top 4 and just spent the season oscillating between 5th-8th) we have actually run into our best form of the season in recent weeks having defeated 3rd, 4th and 5th in consecutive weeks (2 of those wins on the road) as part of a longer stretch of 9 wins from our last 10 games culminating in a demolition of the highly fancied Crows on their own deck. Form is good.
Bulldogs - At the end of Round 17, the bulldogs were sitting a late season high of 3rd. Whilst the wheels haven't exactly fallen off since then they've definitely started to wobble - back to back losses to St Kilda and Geelong were followed by wins over North (14pts), Collingwood (3pts) and Essendon (40pts) before finishing the season with a disappointing albeit meaningless loss against the aforementioned Dockers at this very venue. Form is indifferent.
Head to Head
R11, 2016 - Eagles 75 v Bulldogs 83 (Etihad)
R21, 2015 - Eagles 162 v Bulldogs 85 (Subiaco)
R1, 2015 - Eagles 87 v Bulldogs 97 (Etihad)
R1, 2014 - Eagles 134 v Bulldogs 69 (Subiaco)
R18, 2013 - Eagles 89 v Bulldogs 111 (Etihad)
Recent results have gone the way of the home side. Significantly we've owned the Bulldogs at Subiaco, a trend that goes back further than just the last 2 games at the ground including a smashing in the 2006 semi final. Also, it's our turn in the LWLWL cycle.
The Teams / Injuries
West Coast - By and large the injury Gods were kind to us this year but in their infinite wisdom made us pay on the eve of the finals striking down our most structurally important player, the beast himself Nic Naitanui, with an ACL that rules him out of not just 2016 but most if not all of 2017. Our only other injury concern is the Robin to Nicnat's Batman, Scott (Slyce) Lycett with a painful PCL he has been carrying for the 2nd half of the season. So no injuries apart from the two players who gave us a clear advantage over every other side in the competition. *. We do have Giles though. And rucking beast Mitch Brown ready to fill the breach should Robin fail to emerge from the batcave. Nelson was held back from the royals elimination final on the weekend just in case there is an unexpected bout of Partingtons disease in one of our other players. Expect no change from the team that demolished Adelaide
Bulldogs - The injury Gods have been far from kind to Footscray who have battled with injuries ever since Bob Murphy went down with an ACL. Wallis and Redpath have also had their seasons ended by a broken leg and ACL respectively. Roughead is likely to recover from his calf injury and replace big Will Minson whilst key playmakers Wood (ankle), Liberatore (ankle) and Macrae (hamstring) are all in a race against time to prove their fitness. Adams I believe is also a non-starter. I don't know (or care) enough to ponder who might be the outs should any or all of those players be available and given that even the Bulldogs probably won't know for sure until the final team announcement 90mins before bouncedown then I've got more chance of rooting Caris Tiivel (google her - trust me) than predicting the 22 that will run out on Thursday. A handy chap named Jake Stringer is also a definite starter after a stint in the twos due to some indifferent form. So expect at least 3, maybe 4 or 5 or 6 changes to the side that played Freo with all the intensity of the AFL allstars on Friday night
Tactics / Matchups
For a side that has a reputation for playing fast attacking football, Bulldogs games are surprisingly low scoring - the average total match score in Bulldogs games is 158 points which is a league low. Only Sydney and Geelong have conceded fewer points than Footscray (73ppg) which is rather impressive since they've played 14 indoors at Etihad. On the flipside their points for average of 84 is comfortably the lowest of the top 8 teams underlining an inability to score. By comparison the Eagles rank 5th in both points for (99ppg) and against (76ppg).
Supply will be the determining factor in this game so the side that wins the midfield battle will most likely win the game - although given the Eagles superior scoring power if our midfield can at least break even we should still win
Expect a contested ball battle where 12 goals may well be a winning score even if past results don't support that assertion. DILLIGAF.
Rucks - What would have been a clear advantage withBatman and Robin Nic and Slyce is now likely to be a more of a nil all draw between rucking behemoths Giles and Roughead (I expect Lycett will play predominantly forward with only an occasional run on ball). That said if Giles can uncork whatever he drank before the Adelaide game again he could well be a factor as he was in that game. Does lightning strike twice? If it does I'm claiming Thunderbolt Giles.
Bontempelli v Someone (for the love of God please put someone on Bont) - Hutchings has been our go to tagger recently with impressive results but he just looks over matched physically to contain Bontempelli who looms as West Coasts biggest threat. Still only a relative youngster he is a proven match winner and is the Rolls Royce of an otherwise blue collar, yet very effective, midfield with an ability to push forward and score. He must be contained. I'd put Yeo on him. Physically he is a better match and I believe the focus a run with role would give him may snap him out of what has been a concerning form slump. He also has the ability to hurt Bontempelli the other way if we can win enough ball at the coalface
Shuey v Picken - Shuey is our most damaging midfielder and Picken their most reliable stopper (who also has the ability to win plenty of his own ball) so I expect to see this matchup. Picken may go to Gaff but with contested ball likely to decide this contest the bulldogs will need to contain shuey and prevent what is becoming his trade mark breakaways from congestion
Priddis v Liberatore - Pure inside mids who are as strong as bulls at the contest and experts at both getting hands on the ball first and providing a shutdown tackle if they don't. They'll be butting heads all night and with neither side having an advantage in the ruck their contest at ground level for first possession will be vital. Liberatore will be a massive out if he can't get up as he's a quality player.
Kennedy v the Bulldogs back 6 - Kennedy has monstered the Bulldogs at times and again looms large in this contest. They don't have a key defender that can match Kennedy for height and strength and if he's left one on one with decent supply the AA Hobo will be hard to stop. Expect the bulldogs to double, even triple team JK, and hope their mids can exert enough pressure to deny clean delivery. If they can't then it's likely to be game over. With Kennedy attracting so much attention it will be incumbent on the other forwards, in particular Jack, Lecca and the resting ruck to provide viable alternative targets
Cripps and Hill v the rebounders - many of the bulldogs attacks are setup from halfback through Johannisen, Woods and Biggs so it is vital these two exert forwardline pressure to deny them the clean rebound from D50 that is a cornerstone of the Bulldogs game plan. They also need to be at the feet of big Josh to provide a credible crumbing threat that will force their defenders to manup and not zone off - especially Wood who is an elite intercept marker.
The Governors of Sexual Barrassment v homoerotic overload - McGovern and Barass were a virtual forcefield against Adelaide causing a massive uncontained outbreak of man-love and a rising star nomination for #sexualbarrassment himself. If the Bulldogs can't bring the ball in quickly and cleanly, these two are the kings of the intercept mark and rarely lose an aerial contest - they can outmark and outfist the best of them. Alternatively, the bulldogs are very good at creating space in their forwardline and rely on their midfielders getting clean ball into an open F50 where their undersized forwards can create scoring chances. If the ball gets over the back of our two talls our defence can be exposed. Butler and Sheppingham will need to be wary of the Bullies smalls like Dalhaus, Daniel and Dickson who are damaging if they get off the chain
Wildcards
Bulldogs - Stringer looms large here. His form has certainly been indifferent which led to Beverage taking the bold step of dropping him to the twos for a couple of games to rediscover his mojo. From all accounts he was solid moreso than his spectacular self but this gamble could pay off massively if he comes out on Thursday wanting to prove a point. At his best he's a very damaging player that can turn a game with a 15min purple patch either with a clutch of goals or a burst through the midfield like he did in our R11 matchup earlier this year. Schofield or perhaps Hurn shapes as the likely defender assigned to stopping the "package" and curtailing his influence. Lets hope Australia Post are responsible for delivering him to Subiaco.
West Coast - I'm going to nominate Lewis Jetta. Sure our boom recruit, along with our other boom recruit, has been one of the major disappointments of 2016 but in the last two matches theres been flashes of the brilliance he can bring. Jetta provides a different dynamic to our side and his delivery into F50 is first class - if he can get off his own self imposed leash and fire up for 18-20 possessions (or more) he has the ability to turn the game with the quality of his disposal.
It's also the 200th game for our favourite man child and current captain, Shannon Hurn. Let's get him to 203 games by the end of 2016 and add premiership to the captain bit. He's been a great servant and a reliable defender with one of the best kicks in the competition and arguably the best in the business at kick ins from a behind.
Weather
Min 10
Max 19
Early shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 60%
Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of morning showers. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light during the morning
Fingers crossed it should be relatively fine. Winds should help the ground dry out and forecast rainfall is minimal. A dry deck suits us with our height advantage, wet not so much and if it rains ep2006 will go into an apoplectic fit. Scratch that, he'll do that anyway rain or not.
Prediction
West Coast are strong $1.20 favourites to win this with the line at 27.5 points which tbh seems about right. Geelong are the only side to have blown the Bulldogs out - the 57 point pasting being the only defeat by over 5 goals in 2016 for the Bulldogs. As for West Coast the fabled Subiaco flat track has largely been rolled up since the bye with our 78 point win over Essendon in Round 15 the only routine 10+ goal win that was usually de rigueur for these Eagles. So expect this game to be tight for at least three quarters.
I think the Bulldogs will understandably roll the dice with most, if not all, of their recovering stars which will probably tell in a tough uncompromising game on a large ground as the Eagles overcome a tiring Bulldogs
Eagles to defeat theDockers Bulldogs by 33 points : 92-59
And because you won't google it
There you go Biggie
All Done
Wait wut...
Wrong preview *en
West Coast v Western Bulldogs : Elimination Final 2016
The qualification rounds are over and the real season begins on Thursday night when our Eagles play an elimination final against the curiously named Western Bulldogs who aren't even the westernmost team in their own eastern state. Anyway in a battle of the "West" teams lets hope the Bulldogs put up as much fight as the other WA based team did this year - lets not worry about 4 points, we'll just aim for 4 wins, bank the draft pick and a 5 year contract extension.
I digress. (Shupe - note the fullstop)
If you'd told me at the start of the season we'd be playing a week 1 home final with 16 wins I would have been doing cartwheels on the assumption we'd finished top 2 again (16 wins was good enough last year). Alas we finished 6th, the first side in history to do so with 16 wins, so instead we have a sudden death final first up against the Western Bulldogs who are entitled to be a little bemused that 15 wins rewards them with a week 1 trip interstate to face elimination.
The Form
West Coast - After a season that was harder to fire up than an 80 year old nun (Round 1 aside when we were 4th we were never inside the top 4 and just spent the season oscillating between 5th-8th) we have actually run into our best form of the season in recent weeks having defeated 3rd, 4th and 5th in consecutive weeks (2 of those wins on the road) as part of a longer stretch of 9 wins from our last 10 games culminating in a demolition of the highly fancied Crows on their own deck. Form is good.
Bulldogs - At the end of Round 17, the bulldogs were sitting a late season high of 3rd. Whilst the wheels haven't exactly fallen off since then they've definitely started to wobble - back to back losses to St Kilda and Geelong were followed by wins over North (14pts), Collingwood (3pts) and Essendon (40pts) before finishing the season with a disappointing albeit meaningless loss against the aforementioned Dockers at this very venue. Form is indifferent.
Head to Head
R11, 2016 - Eagles 75 v Bulldogs 83 (Etihad)
R21, 2015 - Eagles 162 v Bulldogs 85 (Subiaco)
R1, 2015 - Eagles 87 v Bulldogs 97 (Etihad)
R1, 2014 - Eagles 134 v Bulldogs 69 (Subiaco)
R18, 2013 - Eagles 89 v Bulldogs 111 (Etihad)
Recent results have gone the way of the home side. Significantly we've owned the Bulldogs at Subiaco, a trend that goes back further than just the last 2 games at the ground including a smashing in the 2006 semi final. Also, it's our turn in the LWLWL cycle.
The Teams / Injuries
West Coast - By and large the injury Gods were kind to us this year but in their infinite wisdom made us pay on the eve of the finals striking down our most structurally important player, the beast himself Nic Naitanui, with an ACL that rules him out of not just 2016 but most if not all of 2017. Our only other injury concern is the Robin to Nicnat's Batman, Scott (Slyce) Lycett with a painful PCL he has been carrying for the 2nd half of the season. So no injuries apart from the two players who gave us a clear advantage over every other side in the competition. *. We do have Giles though. And rucking beast Mitch Brown ready to fill the breach should Robin fail to emerge from the batcave. Nelson was held back from the royals elimination final on the weekend just in case there is an unexpected bout of Partingtons disease in one of our other players. Expect no change from the team that demolished Adelaide
Bulldogs - The injury Gods have been far from kind to Footscray who have battled with injuries ever since Bob Murphy went down with an ACL. Wallis and Redpath have also had their seasons ended by a broken leg and ACL respectively. Roughead is likely to recover from his calf injury and replace big Will Minson whilst key playmakers Wood (ankle), Liberatore (ankle) and Macrae (hamstring) are all in a race against time to prove their fitness. Adams I believe is also a non-starter. I don't know (or care) enough to ponder who might be the outs should any or all of those players be available and given that even the Bulldogs probably won't know for sure until the final team announcement 90mins before bouncedown then I've got more chance of rooting Caris Tiivel (google her - trust me) than predicting the 22 that will run out on Thursday. A handy chap named Jake Stringer is also a definite starter after a stint in the twos due to some indifferent form. So expect at least 3, maybe 4 or 5 or 6 changes to the side that played Freo with all the intensity of the AFL allstars on Friday night
Tactics / Matchups
For a side that has a reputation for playing fast attacking football, Bulldogs games are surprisingly low scoring - the average total match score in Bulldogs games is 158 points which is a league low. Only Sydney and Geelong have conceded fewer points than Footscray (73ppg) which is rather impressive since they've played 14 indoors at Etihad. On the flipside their points for average of 84 is comfortably the lowest of the top 8 teams underlining an inability to score. By comparison the Eagles rank 5th in both points for (99ppg) and against (76ppg).
Supply will be the determining factor in this game so the side that wins the midfield battle will most likely win the game - although given the Eagles superior scoring power if our midfield can at least break even we should still win
Expect a contested ball battle where 12 goals may well be a winning score even if past results don't support that assertion. DILLIGAF.
Rucks - What would have been a clear advantage with
Bontempelli v Someone (for the love of God please put someone on Bont) - Hutchings has been our go to tagger recently with impressive results but he just looks over matched physically to contain Bontempelli who looms as West Coasts biggest threat. Still only a relative youngster he is a proven match winner and is the Rolls Royce of an otherwise blue collar, yet very effective, midfield with an ability to push forward and score. He must be contained. I'd put Yeo on him. Physically he is a better match and I believe the focus a run with role would give him may snap him out of what has been a concerning form slump. He also has the ability to hurt Bontempelli the other way if we can win enough ball at the coalface
Shuey v Picken - Shuey is our most damaging midfielder and Picken their most reliable stopper (who also has the ability to win plenty of his own ball) so I expect to see this matchup. Picken may go to Gaff but with contested ball likely to decide this contest the bulldogs will need to contain shuey and prevent what is becoming his trade mark breakaways from congestion
Priddis v Liberatore - Pure inside mids who are as strong as bulls at the contest and experts at both getting hands on the ball first and providing a shutdown tackle if they don't. They'll be butting heads all night and with neither side having an advantage in the ruck their contest at ground level for first possession will be vital. Liberatore will be a massive out if he can't get up as he's a quality player.
Kennedy v the Bulldogs back 6 - Kennedy has monstered the Bulldogs at times and again looms large in this contest. They don't have a key defender that can match Kennedy for height and strength and if he's left one on one with decent supply the AA Hobo will be hard to stop. Expect the bulldogs to double, even triple team JK, and hope their mids can exert enough pressure to deny clean delivery. If they can't then it's likely to be game over. With Kennedy attracting so much attention it will be incumbent on the other forwards, in particular Jack, Lecca and the resting ruck to provide viable alternative targets
Cripps and Hill v the rebounders - many of the bulldogs attacks are setup from halfback through Johannisen, Woods and Biggs so it is vital these two exert forwardline pressure to deny them the clean rebound from D50 that is a cornerstone of the Bulldogs game plan. They also need to be at the feet of big Josh to provide a credible crumbing threat that will force their defenders to manup and not zone off - especially Wood who is an elite intercept marker.
The Governors of Sexual Barrassment v homoerotic overload - McGovern and Barass were a virtual forcefield against Adelaide causing a massive uncontained outbreak of man-love and a rising star nomination for #sexualbarrassment himself. If the Bulldogs can't bring the ball in quickly and cleanly, these two are the kings of the intercept mark and rarely lose an aerial contest - they can outmark and outfist the best of them. Alternatively, the bulldogs are very good at creating space in their forwardline and rely on their midfielders getting clean ball into an open F50 where their undersized forwards can create scoring chances. If the ball gets over the back of our two talls our defence can be exposed. Butler and Sheppingham will need to be wary of the Bullies smalls like Dalhaus, Daniel and Dickson who are damaging if they get off the chain
Wildcards
Bulldogs - Stringer looms large here. His form has certainly been indifferent which led to Beverage taking the bold step of dropping him to the twos for a couple of games to rediscover his mojo. From all accounts he was solid moreso than his spectacular self but this gamble could pay off massively if he comes out on Thursday wanting to prove a point. At his best he's a very damaging player that can turn a game with a 15min purple patch either with a clutch of goals or a burst through the midfield like he did in our R11 matchup earlier this year. Schofield or perhaps Hurn shapes as the likely defender assigned to stopping the "package" and curtailing his influence. Lets hope Australia Post are responsible for delivering him to Subiaco.
West Coast - I'm going to nominate Lewis Jetta. Sure our boom recruit, along with our other boom recruit, has been one of the major disappointments of 2016 but in the last two matches theres been flashes of the brilliance he can bring. Jetta provides a different dynamic to our side and his delivery into F50 is first class - if he can get off his own self imposed leash and fire up for 18-20 possessions (or more) he has the ability to turn the game with the quality of his disposal.
It's also the 200th game for our favourite man child and current captain, Shannon Hurn. Let's get him to 203 games by the end of 2016 and add premiership to the captain bit. He's been a great servant and a reliable defender with one of the best kicks in the competition and arguably the best in the business at kick ins from a behind.
Weather
Min 10
Max 19
Early shower or two.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 1 mm
Chance of any rain: 60%
Partly cloudy. Medium (50%) chance of morning showers. Winds southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light during the morning
Fingers crossed it should be relatively fine. Winds should help the ground dry out and forecast rainfall is minimal. A dry deck suits us with our height advantage, wet not so much and if it rains ep2006 will go into an apoplectic fit. Scratch that, he'll do that anyway rain or not.
Prediction
West Coast are strong $1.20 favourites to win this with the line at 27.5 points which tbh seems about right. Geelong are the only side to have blown the Bulldogs out - the 57 point pasting being the only defeat by over 5 goals in 2016 for the Bulldogs. As for West Coast the fabled Subiaco flat track has largely been rolled up since the bye with our 78 point win over Essendon in Round 15 the only routine 10+ goal win that was usually de rigueur for these Eagles. So expect this game to be tight for at least three quarters.
I think the Bulldogs will understandably roll the dice with most, if not all, of their recovering stars which will probably tell in a tough uncompromising game on a large ground as the Eagles overcome a tiring Bulldogs
Eagles to defeat the
And because you won't google it
There you go Biggie
All Done
