Prediction Elusive Top 4 Now Gone Battle for 8

[Optimistic Dog]

The remaining games


Bombers Home Win
Cats A ?
bye
Hawks H ?
Saints A W Marvel
Tigers H W
Sydney A W
Nth A W Marvel
Crows H ?
Lions A L
Bombers A W Marvel
Giants H W
Dees A W
WCE H W
Dockers H W

Summary

Play, 5 other top 8 teams 3 at home 2 away
10 games at Marvel 3 these games away
We probably need 16 wins to make the top 4 so can afford ONLY 3 losses.
I have us losing to the lions and 3 games with a question mark, that does not include the swans game and they may have most of their troops back by then.
Nothing certain but with 10 marvel games we should be fairly certain to get 13 wins to play finals but we need a top 4 finish.
If Sam is back in 5 weeks he only misses another 4 with the bye and we get him back for the tigers game.

Over to you Bevo time to get us into the top 4.

 

[The Inbetweener]

We’ll know more after we have got through the next block of games with the Cats and Hawks. As you say, we can likely only afford 3 more losses, so those ones are crucial.

 

[RWnBluey]

The remaining games


Bombers Home Win
Cats A ?
bye
Hawks H ?
Saints A W Marvel
Tigers H W
Sydney A W
Nth A W Marvel
Crows H ?
Lions A L
Bombers A W Marvel
Giants H W
Dees A W
WCE H W
Dockers H W

Summary

Play, 5 other top 8 teams 3 at home 2 away
10 games at Marvel 3 these games away
We probably need 16 wins to make the top 4 so can other afford 3 losses.
I have us losing the lions game and 3 games with a question marks, that does not include the swans game and they may have most of their troops back by then.
Nothing certain but with 10 marvel games we should be fairly certain to get 13 wins to play finals but we need a top 4 finish.
If Sam is back in 5 weeks he only misses another 4 with the bye and we get back for the tigers game.

Over to you Bevo time to get us into the top 4.

15 wins and a healthy percentage is usually good enough for top 4 most years which means we need to win 10 from 14 coming home.
From the remaining matches the danger games are the cats, hawks, lions, crows, dockers. Win the ones we should and pinch one of these five then we’ve got a good shot at the top 4.

 

[BigFloppa]

If we want top four we need to start turning these honourable losses into wins. Brisbane, Collingwood and Gold Coast were games in which we were in winnable positions despite being up against strong opponents. Need to start pinching some of those wins against strong sides. Shouldn't have lost to Freo who are genuinely shite.

Still not sure if I believe in this team yet. No doubt we have performed admirably given our injuries but its another question entirely whether we are a top four quality side.

 

[The Inbetweener]

15 wins and a healthy percentage is usually good enough for top 4 most years which means we need to win 10 from 14 coming home.
From the remaining matches the danger games are the cats, hawks, lions, crows, dockers. Win the ones we should and pinch one of these five then we’ve got a good shot at the top 4.

15 wins was the usual standard pre gather round I reckon. With the extra game it’s gone up to 16.

 

[Angak]

We’ll know more after we have got through the next block of games with the Cats and Hawks. As you say, we can likely only afford 3 more losses, so those ones are crucial.

If we beat both the Cats and Hawks assuming we take care of Essendon I’d say our top four chances are > 80%. Win one and lose one, it’s a 50/50. Drop both, and we’re down to around 25%.
Season defining stretch of games.

 

[Dazb86]

I unfortunately just don't trust this side. We drop games when we should win way too often and have a knack of losing the close ones.

That being said I ****ing hope we do make top 4 and have done pretty bloody well so far given the travel and injuries.

 

[RWnBluey]

15 wins was the usual standard pre gather round I reckon. With the extra game it’s gone up to 16.

In the two years since gather round was introduced 15 wins was enough for top 4. In fact 14 wins would’ve been good enough in 2023.

 

[X_box_X]

What about the elusive seven game win streak?

 

[Optimistic Dog]

In the two years since gather round was introduced 15 wins was enough for top 4. In fact 14 wins would’ve been good enough in 2023.

Yes, maybe hard to see the lions, pies and suns losing more than 6 games so that leaves 1 spot for either hawks, crows, dogs, cats or giants. I suspect one of those teams will get 16 wins. Our games against them will be like 8 point games.

 

[RWnBluey]

Yes, maybe hard to see the lions, pies and suns losing more than 6 games so that leaves 1 spot for either hawks, crows, dogs, cats or giants. I suspect one of those teams will get 16 wins. Our games against them will be like 8 point games.

I’m still not completely sold on GC just yet. They’re a very good side no doubt but have had a soft draw and beaten two top 8 teams in favourable conditions. Just skimming through the rest of the fixture now I think they’ll end up with around 15 wins albeit with a healthy percentage.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

I’m still not completely sold on GC just yet. They’re a very good side no doubt but have had a soft draw and beaten two top 8 teams in favourable conditions. Just skimming through the rest of the fixture now I think they’ll end up with around 15 wins albeit with a healthy percentage.

They had to play HOK, on a five day turn around after playing us, that was what was most impressive. Hawthorn threw everything at them.

 

[RWnBluey]

They had to play HOK, on a five day turn around after playing us, that was what was most impressive. Hawthorn threw everything at them.

Sure I take your point, was a good win and they could very well be the real deal but the counter argument could also be made that they didn’t need to travel this week and were more acclimatised to the conditions.

The Hawks formline is also one that’s hard to get a read on, they’ve had a few easy kills in recent weeks against WC, Rich, and the dees. I’m just holding fire on them for the time being. The only two teams I have as locks for top 4 are lions and pies.

 

[hutchy31]

My guess is top four isn’t going to happen, losing four by this point puts you behind the eight ball.

Routes would be either winning the next three and taking care of the games we should win after that, or going something like 1-2 in the next few but rattling off a massive win streak in the second half of the year.

I’m not sure we’ve got enough injury luck to do that, even if our flakiness is a thing of the past. Best guess is we’re in a race for 5th/6th and try and replicate what the lions did last year with a comfortable home EF win then rattle through the next three.

 

[RWnBluey]

Did a quick predictor this morning. May very well be ruing that loss last night come end of the year.

Hawks don’t look to have a very favourable draw after the byes. Our biggest threats to top 4 the way I see it will be GC and the Lions. Going to be tight, could come down to percentage.

The run home:
Pies 10/13 = 18 wins
Geelong 9/12 =16 wins
Brisbane 8/13 =15.5 wins
GC 8/13 =15 wins
Dogs 9/12 =15 wins
Hawks 7/13 =14 wins
Crows 8/13 =14 wins

 

[Libba39]

We've lost to 5 out of the 6 teams above us (with Hawks to come). Our ladder position is spot on. We're not a top four side currently.

 

[charcoalchicken]

We’re playing well enough this season to make top 4 imo.

Dropping a few winnable games isn’t helping matters though.

 

[RWnBluey]

We've lost to 5 out of the 6 teams above us (with Hawks to come). Our ladder position is spot on. We're not a top four side currently.

Losses to teams around us
Pies by 6 points
Lions by after leading by 6 goals
GC by 10 points
Cats by 14

So we’ve already played the top 4 best teams this year and although we’re 0-4 none of them have blown us out of the water. We’ve been in every game. Were level with GC late in the game and should’ve beaten the pies and cats. We’re not far away.

 

[Golden_6]

I’d say that we will start favourites in every remaining game other than the Hawks and Lions games.

I still see the possibility of something like 9-3 to finish the year which puts us within reach of the top 4 with a good %.

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

i think we have 9 marvel games, so if then must win at least 8/9 of them to give us a shot

 

[Angak]

Lose to Hawthorn and you can almost write us off for top 4 win it and we’re definitely back in the hunt. That’s how important this game is.

The players obviously need their break, but we’ve got to treat the game like a mini grand final. Our prep has to be spot on. Season on the line stuff
.

 

[maddog37]

Lose to Hawthorn and you can almost write us off for top 4 win it and we’re definitely back in the hunt. That’s how important this game is.

The players obviously need their break, but we’ve got to treat the game like a mini grand final. Our prep has to be spot on. Season on the line stuff
.

Exciting times.

 

[Ash1337]

Lose to Hawthorn and you can almost write us off for top 4 win it and we’re definitely back in the hunt. That’s how important this game is.

The players obviously need their break, but we’ve got to treat the game like a mini grand final. Our prep has to be spot on. Season on the line stuff
.

I don't think it's a must win. Dogs have some obvious issues with Darcy out and no replacement while also carrying Naughton who seems to be struggling still. The Forward depth is just not there atm. I think dogs can still make top 4. It's a more even comp compared to last season where I think it'll be all on percentage to get top 4.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

We need Sam back soon. It would be great if it was against the hawks. I think Naughton, Sam and Buku is a possibility but I prefer Sam, Astro and medium tall that can apply more ground ball pressure. The perfect player for this is Davidson and if ADZ gets back Freijah can play the wing role of Sam.

Bit hard on Buku he has been playing well but he can play down back.

A forward line of the 2 Sams, Astro, Westy, the improved VDM and one other maybe McNeil. looks really top class and can take us to the top 4.

 

[dogsuperfan]

We need Sam back soon. It would be great if it was against the hawks. I think Naughton, Sam and Buku is a possibility but I prefer Sam, Astro and medium tall that can apply more ground ball pressure. The perfect player for this is Davidson and if ADZ gets back Freijah can play the wing role of Sam.

Bit hard on Buku he has been playing well but he can play down back.

A forward line of the 2 Sams, Astro, Westy, the improved VDM and one other maybe McNeil. looks really top class and can take us to the top 4.

McNeil does everything right it’s just so unfortunate he can’t finish through the goals. Hopefully he can get a hang of that in the coming weeks. Although maybe crumbing goals might something that comes from a natural goal sense.