Essendon 2017

[Lance Uppercut]

This thread...

 

[Milanista28]

We can lose to freo.

 

[LeverPuller]

Ummm no. Go through pre season ladder predictions and the bulk of peoole had us 12th or lower for some stupid reason.

Honestly craff, it was damn near impossible to pick coming off last year. I generally had you around that mark, but anywhere from 6th to 17th was the Dons' range.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Has any team before gone from wooden spoon to premiership the next season?

 

[Laverde2Smack]

Heard a few weeks ago on SEN someone (Chris Connolly ?) giving Pyke, Hardwick and Worsfold "a big tick" for 2017. I don't see it that way with Essendon at all. Ten losses for the year as the older team spells trouble (Hawthorn and West Coast also have 10).

Goddard will be the only one of those old guys who finish top 10 in our b&f this, season. We really rely on them don't we? Lol

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[Laverde2Smack]

Fringes of the 8, about where most people expected them to be with the suspended players back.

Pass mark. Nothing more, nothing less.

Not according to the bigfooty ladder predictor thread. The majority of people had us finishing bottom 6.

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[Donakebab]

Has any team before gone from wooden spoon to premiership the next season?

Nope. Essendon took the spoon in 1921 and then won the premiership in 1923, they also won the following year as well. Fitzroy went one better in 1919 and did it in the same season.

 

[demondavey]

Eh, finding an elite mid isn't necessarily easy. Francis could be that medium forward option if he ever gets on the park though.

They should offer Kelly the money

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

On the brink of finals footy, thoughts? Unprecedented performance?

Unprecedented??


You don't recall Demetriou and McLachlan both publicly stating several times that the AFL would do everything to get Essendon back to being a powerhouse as quickly as possible??

Where's the shock? We were told the AFL would do it.

 

[Shadeeq]

Heard a few weeks ago on SEN someone (Chris Connolly ?) giving Pyke, Hardwick and Worsfold "a big tick" for 2017. I don't see it that way with Essendon at all. Ten losses for the year as the older team spells trouble (Hawthorn and West Coast also have 10).

I have seen you mention this a few times.
If you do the averages that does show that Essendon have one of the oldest lists. But is the age profile of our list in a bad spot? Our best players this year include:
Merrett(21) Daniher(23) Hurley(27) Fantasia(22) Mcgrath(19) Zaharakis(27) Heppell(25) Tippa(24) Hooker(29) Goddard(32). Only one player over 30 and one close to 30. Six of them 25 or under.
Other young players in our best 22 include Parish(20) Mckenna(21) Gleeson(22) Stewart(23).

The only other old players in our best 22 would be Kelly and Baguley. They aren't the type of players that are hard to replace. Young players like Begley, Langford, Laverde, Francis, Ridley, Mutch etc. could break into the team next year too.

I think the age profile of our list is in a great spot.

 

[AcuteWhistle]

Has any team before gone from wooden spoon to premiership the next season?

It would be...Unprecedented!

 

[ezard15]

Unprecedented??


You don't recall Demetriou and McLachlan both publicly stating several times that the AFL would do everything to get Essendon back to being a powerhouse as quickly as possible??

Where's the shock? We were told the AFL would do it.

I don't recall that.

When did they say it?

And what have they done to get us back to being a powerhouse?

Apart from the massive hanger Demetriou took last night

 

[ezard15]

On the brink of finals footy, thoughts? Unprecedented performance?

If we win a final it will be unprecedented for the last 15 years or so.

Still gotta beat Freo yet though mate!!!

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Unprecedented??


You don't recall Demetriou and McLachlan both publicly stating several times that the AFL would do everything to get Essendon back to being a powerhouse as quickly as possible??

Where's the shock? We were told the AFL would do it.

Whoosh

 

[kiwicrow]

Just imagine what you might have achieved the last five years if it wasn't for *

 

[Ambrosia]

Heard a few weeks ago on SEN someone (Chris Connolly ?) giving Pyke, Hardwick and Worsfold "a big tick" for 2017. I don't see it that way with Essendon at all. Ten losses for the year as the older team spells trouble (Hawthorn and West Coast also have 10).

I agree the year hasn't been great but I think this season was more about just getting back to focusing footy after years of turmoil. There are a lot of Essendon supporters who are happy that the only to worry about is if we are playing enough kids.

 

[Ari]

Just imagine what you might have achieved the last five years if it wasn't for *

Meanwhile, none of us supporters had anything to do with that. But we did show up to see our team smashed and turned inside out as things changed from guilty to innocent and back in the blink of an eye over the past years.

Anyway, most of us are trying to move on and just enjoy the footy after so many years of shit. If you really want to stoke the fire, Bay13 seems as good a place as any.


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[Ron The Bear]

We're we the older team in all 10 losses? Genuinely interesting stat. Older by much or the sort of thing that switching 32yo Watson for 20yo Langford would make all the difference?

Rd|Opp|Age diff
\3|Ca|+1.29
\4|Ad|+0.78
\6|Me|+0.48
\7|Fr|+0.73
\10|Ri|+0.91
\11|GWS|+1.48
\14|Sy|+0.66
\15|Br|+2.04
\19|WB|+0.71
\21|Ad|+0.46

Older teams have won 63% of games this year, equal to the average over the last decade.

Obviously there are some quality players coming through so it's not all doom and gloom. But factoring in Essendon's draw, I think their 2017 has been disappointing.

 

[Ron The Bear]

I have seen you mention this a few times.
If you do the averages that does show that Essendon have one of the oldest lists. But is the age profile of our list in a bad spot? Our best players this year include:
Merrett(21) Daniher(23) Hurley(27) Fantasia(22) Mcgrath(19) Zaharakis(27) Heppell(25) Tippa(24) Hooker(29) Goddard(32). Only one player over 30 and one close to 30. Six of them 25 or under.
Other young players in our best 22 include Parish(20) Mckenna(21) Gleeson(22) Stewart(23).

The only other old players in our best 22 would be Kelly and Baguley. They aren't the type of players that are hard to replace. Young players like Begley, Langford, Laverde, Francis, Ridley, Mutch etc. could break into the team next year too.

I think the age profile of our list is in a great spot.

I don't do lists, only the senior 22's. It may well be that the latent talent is there to replace the outgoings. But generally speaking, it's a red flag - other recent teams to have recorded 10 losses as the older team are North & Freo (2016), Carlton (2014-15), Freo (2008), Melbourne & Essendon (2007). Generally it's a signal that a team requires a rebuild of some sort, although I'll concede I view the current Essendon team slightly differently to the others listed.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

I don't recall that.

When did they say it?

And what have they done to get us back to being a powerhouse?

Apart from the massive hanger Demetriou took last night

Are you for real?

 

[carnthedons]

Rd|Opp|Age diff
\3|Ca|+1.29
\4|Ad|+0.78
\6|Me|+0.48
\7|Fr|+0.73
\10|Ri|+0.91
\11|GWS|+1.48
\14|Sy|+0.66
\15|Br|+2.04
\19|WB|+0.71
\21|Ad|+0.46

Older teams have won 63% of games this year, equal to the average over the last decade.

Obviously there are some quality players coming through so it's not all doom and gloom. But factoring in Essendon's draw, I think their 2017 has been disappointing.

Thanks. A few of those will be much closer next season when we lose Watson/Kelly (65 combined age) and replace them with Langford/Ridley types (40). Did we win games where we were the younger team? I presume so given we wouldn't have been the oldest team in every game, although may've been for most.

I think it's been around the mark of where we should finish up given the combined factors of draw, lack of game time together as a team, few key injuries etc. the future looks reasonably promising though given other than Goddard, all our most important players are sub 30, most of them are 25 or under.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Thanks. A few of those will be much closer next season when we lose Watson/Kelly (65 combined age) and replace them with Langford/Ridley types (40). Did we win games where we were the younger team? I presume so given we wouldn't have been the oldest team in every game, although may've been for most.

I think it's been around the mark of where we should finish up given the combined factors of draw, lack of game time together as a team, few key injuries etc. the future looks reasonably promising though given other than Goddard, all our most important players are sub 30, most of them are 25 or under.

Wins as the younger team were Hawthorn (-1.59), Geelong (-0.25) and West Coast (-0.74). But I think two of those teams are in trouble.

Certainly, if Essendon is able to win 12+ games next year while refreshing the 22, I'll revise my opinion.

 

[Shadeeq]

I don't do lists, only the senior 22's. It may well be that the latent talent is there to replace the outgoings. But generally speaking, it's a red flag - other recent teams to have recorded 10 losses as the older team are North & Freo (2016), Carlton (2014-15), Freo (2008), Melbourne & Essendon (2007). Generally it's a signal that a team requires a rebuild of some sort, although I'll concede I view the current Essendon team slightly differently to the others listed.

I don't really care if you think it is a red flag generally speaking. There are obvious extenuating circumstances for Essendon in 2017.
I don't see how anyone could look at our list/best 22 and think the age profile is worrying. I think it is a really poor assessment from someone who just looks at stats without a greater understanding.
Older best 22 players are Watson(been poor + retiring) Kelly(good roleplayer. Retiring) Goddard (good roleplyer) Baguley(inconsistent back pocket) Hooker(important but could have a few years left).
Our list of young to mid aged players looks above average and I am pretty confident in our future.

 

[juss]

Essendon are right where they always are. Mid-table 7th-12th. Capable of beating good teams on their day, also have a tendancy to lose critical games though. I think they'll make the finals, and probably get beaten by the 5th or 6th side in the EF.

 

[freddy mercury]

Perfect world scenario for shits and gigs and for a bigfooty explosion.

Richmond finish 5th Essendon 8. Game sold out we knock em off. Bigfooty would melt down.