Essendon 29k?

[al ain pie]

Why do you think I've gone back to 1998 and 1999? Because those were the last two years Essendon played their home games at the MCG, that's why.

Duh!

Any reasonable anayysis of the crowd figures in thise years suggests Essendon's figure would have been at least around 60,000 less in both years, give or take if they played at the Dome.

Unless you think that getting 69,000 versus the Kangaroos in 1999 would somehow fit in Etihad? You'd probably argue that too.

You've also got to remember that the revamped MCG is attracting far bigger crowds now than it did 12 years ago. It's averaging almsot 60,000 this year so far.

Any reasonable apples vs apples comapriosn between Essendon and Collingwood suggests they have almsot identical support. To argue otherwise is a slap in the face to all the data, surveys and relevant attendnaces that suggest this is the case.

breathe..............in......out............take your shoes off..........pour youself a nice drink..............lie down.......go to a happy place..............


but what about the euro and greece.

 

[Dan26]

Where do you get this 100K figure from Dan??

Essendon's 7 2001 Colonial Stadium Home Games

Rd 2 - Fri night v Port - 34,918......no diff

Rd 6 - Sun v WC - 33,829.....WC were a rabble that year, pies got 36K to the Colonial Stadium game that year......no diff

Rd 9 - Sat night v Haw - 50,701....I guess this is your big game that you reckon would have grabbed an extra 50K!

Rd 12 - Fri night v Ade - 38,816.....no diff

Rd 13 - Sat v Freo - 29,528.....no diff

Rd 15 - Sun v Geel - 48,152....in 99 you blokes got 61K to Friday night game, that was a 2nd v 8th clash....the 01 game was Sunday and a 1st v 9th clash....so most likely would have only got low 50s at the G.

Rd 19 - Sun Ess v Syd - 45,057...in 99 you blokes got 50K to Satday game....few less for Sunday game so no diff again.

There are the 7 Essendon TD home games and crowds from 2001.....two games where the crowd may have been bigger.

Geelong may have cracked low 50s instead of 48K....so add on a bonus 5K

Ess v Haw games at the G as Ess home games in 96 and 97 drew crowds of 60K and 46K

Haw v Ess game at the G in 2000 as Haw home game drew 46K

So fact that it was a top of the table clash, may have pushed it up to 65-70K at the G...an extra 20K.

My maths is that the Dons may have snaffled an extra 25K if they played all their home games at the G in 2001........big deal.

In rnd 11 this Collingwood play a home game against the dogs at Etihad....the last time we played a home game against the dogs at the G the crowd was 67K. So the pies will miss out on at least 20K this year by having to play home games at Etihad too.

That's a reasonable analysis about 2001, bu I'll disagre with a couple of games.

I would argue the Hawthorn game would have got 80,000 easily. There was huge debate about moving it to the MCG for weeks beforehand. Hawthorn was 8-0 entering the match, Essendon was 7-1. It was THE match of the year to that point.

The Geelong game would have got mid 60,000's too. The 1999 game you are talking about which drew 61,000 had Geelong coming off 5 consecutive losses.

In 2001, Essendon was 12-2. Geelong 7-7, 9th and fighting for a spot in the eight.

Even the game against Sydney would have pushed 60,000. Sydney were fighting for a spot in the 8. Ess vs Syd games drew 62,000 and 69,000 in 1998 and 1996. Yes, it drew 50,000 in round 3 1999, but that was an early season game. The game in late 2001 had finals ramifications.

Collingwood's total 2001 attendance was 1,082,203. Yes, you were middle-of-the-road, but so was Essendon in 1998. Middle-of-the-road means playing important games with finals ramifications every week. Your 2002 total when you finished top-4 was 1,109,747 - not much different.

You are having seasons similar to 2002 in 2006-7-8, and getting around 1.2 million.

I think the revamped MCG is helping that (and evey club by the way)

I don't think a 2-4 Essendon and a 2-4 Hawthorn would have drawn 61,000, ten years ago to the MCG for a round 7 match.

 

[doppleganger]

That's a reasonable analysis about 2001, bu I'll disagre with a couple of games.

Thought you would!

I would argue the Hawthorn game would have got 80,000 easily. There was huge debate about moving it to the MCG for weeks beforehand. Hawthorn was 8-0 entering the match, Essendon was 7-1. It was THE match of the year to that point.

You say down the bottom that the revamped MCG is helping to boost attendances.

The rnd 22 game last year, Ess home game, which was basically a final drew 77K. Yet you reckon 80K+ easily back in 01!!

No chance, 70K is being generous.....the Hawthorn bandwagon wasn't about like it is now either. As I said, that game prob cost 20K supporters.....just as the Pies v Dogs game in rnd 11 this year will cost 20K supporters.

The Geelong game would have got mid 60,000's too. The 1999 game you are talking about which drew 61,000 had Geelong coming off 5 consecutive losses.

In 2001, Essendon was 12-2. Geelong 7-7, 9th and fighting for a spot in the eight.

I gave the positions in my post.....99 it was 2v8 and in 01 it was 1v9

In 99 it was a Fri night game....always draw bigger crowds
In 01 it was a Sunday.....always draw lower crowds

Yet you think a 1v9 game on a sunday would draw more than 2v8 on a friday night just two years ago??

As I said the 01 Sunday game at the G would have drawn low 50s

Even the game against Sydney would have pushed 60,000. Sydney were fighting for a spot in the 8. Ess vs Syd games drew 62,000 and 69,000 in 1998 and 1996. Yes, it drew 50,000 in round 3 1999, but that was an early season game. The game in late 2001 had finals ramifications.

98 - Sydney when they played Ess in rnd 10 Sydney were sitting 2nd on the ladder, and it was a Friday night

96 - Sydney when they played Ess in rnd 21 it was Syd sitting in 1st on the ladder, and it was Satday

You use two seasons where the swans were flying....and games were in fan friendly time slots of Friday and Sat night

In 01 Sydney were middle of the road team, and the game was on a Sunday....as I said a crowd of 50K top in that scenario.

You talk apples v apples, and then use Sydney top of the ladder on a Friday night as a guide to a Sunday when middle of the road!!

I think the revamped MCG is helping that (and evey club by the way)

I don't think a 2-4 Essendon and a 2-4 Hawthorn would have drawn 61,000, ten years ago to the MCG for a round 7 match.

As I said, you think the revamp has boosted crowds.....yet think Ess v Hawks in 01 would have had a crowd of 80K.....pity last year rnd 22 couldn't even get 80!

 

[Dan26]

As I said, you think the revamp has boosted crowds.....yet think Ess v Hawks in 01 would have had a crowd of 80K.....pity last year rnd 22 couldn't even get 80!

That game in 2001 had a huge build up. Even bigger than the round 22 atch last year. I don't now how much you remember about it, but there was massive debate about moving it.

Hawthorn was unbeaten entering round 9, Essendon was 7-1. It was 1st v 2nd. There would have been a huge neutral interest, similar to the Geelong-St.Kilda clash last year. Hawthorn fell away after that match in 2001 to finish 13-9, but at the time they were flying.

It would have given 80,000 a nudge. You underestimate the big neutal interst there was in this game at the time.

The Swans game was only a couple of weeks out from the finals. The 1998 game when they were 2nd (we were 5-5) drew 62,000, but in 2001 ESSENDON were the ones on top, and obviouly Essendon produce most of the fans at that game. It had ramifications for the finals, unlike the 1998 match which was mid-season. Definately a 60,000-er.

To use an "apples vs apples" comparison, Collingwood drew 54,000 versus Sydney in round 21 last year with the Swans essentially out of finals calculations. It would have got 60,000, maybe a bit more if Sydney was, say, 7th.

I don't know what all this debate is about anyway. All I have suggested is that Essendon and Collingwood are equal in support which every survey (DT, SC figures) and Morgan polls and TV ratings suggest.

I didn't even suggest Essendon was bigger, only that both were virtually identical! Hardly a radical suggestion.

And upon showing that they're identical, Chaz has a hissy fit, and seems unable to comprehend that anything other than Collingwood being a clear number one is something totally unnacceptable, that leads to him crying and carrying on like a pork chop.

It's like his childhood dream has been taken away Jesus, get over it Chaz! They're equal. Just accept it.

He should know better. He'll do his head in arguing with me on this, because I do know my stuff, doppleganger. As you wel know.

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

I didn't even suggest Essendon was bigger, only that both were virtually identical! Hardly a radical suggestion.

And upon showing that they're identical, Chaz has a hissy fit, and seems unable to comprehend that anything other than Collingwood being a clear number one is something totally unnacceptable, that leads to him crying and carrying on like a pork chop.

It's like his childhood dream has been taken away Jesus, get over it Chaz! They're equal. Just accept it.

He should know better. He'll do his head in arguing with me on this, because I do know my stuff, doppleganger. As you wel know.

Haha, statistically, adjusting for form Collingwood draw 3,200 more to games. proven beyond all doubt in my earlier post with an r-squared value of 0.9. Factoring out other teams supporters and the games we play against eachother you are looking at between 10 and 15 % more support (or less support as it concerns you )

Essendon being equal to Collingwood's draw power categorically dismissed using 16 years of data factoring performance.

The horse you are flogging now is so dead it doesn't even stink any more. It's just embarrassing to watch

and hissy fits and pork chops? do you ever re-read your posts after you post them?

 

[Dan26]

Haha, statistically, adjusting for form Collingwood draw 3,200 more to games. proven beyond all doubt in my earlier post with an r-squared value of 0.9. Factoring out other teams supporters and the games we play against eachother you are looking at between 10 and 15 % more support (or less support as it concerns you )

Essendon being equal to Collingwood's draw power categorically dismissed using 16 years of data factoring performance.

The horse you are flogging now is so dead it doesn't even stink any more. It's just embarrassing to watch

and hissy fits and pork chops? do you ever re-read your posts after you post them?

Chaz you're jsut going to have to get over it.

It'd almsot as if, having proved my point that the two clubs have virtually equal support, you've then acted like you've found out that Santa isn't real. You've gone off the deep end and appear to be unable to cope.

If I'd known it would have had this profound an affect on you, I wouldn't have bothered to show you the figures.

But the relaity is that the SC and DT figures, the Morgan survey over several years, the attendances in bad years for both clubs, the attendance in good years (taking into account the Dome to make it apples vs apples), the TV ratings...

... they all suggest the two clubs have the same supporter base.

To come to any other conclusion mean you are ignoring everything presented to you, and are just choosing to believe what you want to based on:

- your own apples vs oranges comparisons
- your own prior convictions that you may have been conditioned to believe from when you were small.

Get over it stop crying, and just accept that the two clubs have the same supporter base. I've never known such a bloody sook in all my life.

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

Chaz you're jsut going to have to get over it.

It'd almsot as if, having proved my point that the two clubs have virtually equal support, you've then acted like you've found out that Santa isn't real. You've gone off the deep end and appear to be unable to cope.

Haha wow, compelling stuff

If I'd known it would have had this profound an affect on you, I wouldn't have bothered to show you the figures.

Yes, yes, you're a good man

But the relaity is that the SC and DT figures, the Morgan survey over several years,

You've lost a quarter of your supporter base in the last 6 or so years according to Morgan. Ya shouldn't be wasting your time here, you should be door knocking pleading with bombers fans to stick with the dons!

the attendances in bad years for both clubs, the attendance in good years (taking into account the Dome to make it apples vs apples),

Nah, pies by 10 to 15% as demonstrated

still haven't responded to that yet.

real statistics rather than your nonsense

the TV ratings...

tell that to 7 and 10 who play 5 more of our games a year

... they all suggest the two clubs have the same supporter base.

Naaah

To come to any other conclusion mean you are ignoring everything presented to you, and are just choosing to believe what you want to based on:

- your own apples vs oranges comparisons
- your own prior convictions that you may have been conditioned to believe from when you were small.

Get over it stop crying, and just accept that the two clubs have the same supporter base. I've never known such a bloody sook in all my life.

Wow

 

[doppleganger]

That game in 2001 had a huge build up. Even bigger than the round 22 atch last year. I don't now how much you remember about it, but there was massive debate about moving it.

Hawthorn was unbeaten entering round 9, Essendon was 7-1. It was 1st v 2nd. There would have been a huge neutral interest, similar to the Geelong-St.Kilda clash last year. Hawthorn fell away after that match in 2001 to finish 13-9, but at the time they were flying.

It would have given 80,000 a nudge. You underestimate the big neutal interst there was in this game at the time.

There was plenty of build-up......but plenty of the build up actually was caused by the drama of the potential move.

What is the record H&A crowd between Ess & Haw??

You say that the redeveloped stand attracts more supporters, yet what was effectively a final couldn't even get 80K last year.

The Swans game was only a couple of weeks out from the finals. The 1998 game when they were 2nd (we were 5-5) drew 62,000, but in 2001 ESSENDON were the ones on top, and obviouly Essendon produce most of the fans at that game. It had ramifications for the finals, unlike the 1998 match which was mid-season. Definately a 60,000-er.

To use an "apples vs apples" comparison, Collingwood drew 54,000 versus Sydney in round 21 last year with the Swans essentially out of finals calculations. It would have got 60,000, maybe a bit more if Sydney was, say, 7th.

You have to realise that the different days draw different numbers of fans.

The Essendon games in the 90s that you keep referring to were Friday or Satday night games...the 2001 game was a sunday..Sunday simply do not draw as much as other games.

2007 Coll v Syd rd 21 on a satday got 63,400
2009 Coll v Syd rd 21 on a sunday got 54,400

Ess v Syd on a Sunday simply wont get 60+ low 50s at best

I don't know what all this debate is about anyway. All I have suggested is that Essendon and Collingwood are equal in support which every survey (DT, SC figures) and Morgan polls and TV ratings suggest.

Those polls are crap....Roy Morgan isn't an accurate measure of fans or drawing power.....it measures popularity, ie when a team is going well a few more nuffies who have little interest will allocate themselves to a team doing well....early 00s this team was Essendon...since they have dropped away Essendon has supposedly lost more than 200K 'supporters' according to Roy!!

TV Ratings....Chaz summed it up....of course two Vic based teams will rate higher than a vic based team against a non-vic......and when you take out the non-vic games (apples v apples) the pies are much further ahead.

DT, who cares about that.....a good guide to junior support perhaps, but not overall support!

I didn't even suggest Essendon was bigger, only that both were virtually identical! Hardly a radical suggestion.

Not radical, but wrong....Chaz showed that pies have better crowds when you factor in performance, that more people want to watch them on TV. You suggesting the Dons are identical is wrong.

He should know better. He'll do his head in arguing with me on this, because I do know my stuff, doppleganger. As you wel know.

You have some Roy Morgan polls, and a misguided belief that playing some home games at TD supposedly cost the dons 100K supporters a year. That is crap.

The pies had been the biggest club since the 20s. Essendon got their ship in order and turned professional first.....and as a result in the late 90s they jumped ahead, during the time when Collingwood was being run into the ground and still playing at VicPark.

Once the pies became professional off-field, ie when McGuire took over, they have since shot back to the front in terms of crowds and interest. No shame in being second dons, just no need to try and falsely claim that the numbers are identical when they clearly show the pies being ahead.

Chaz' figures dont lie...and dont make misguided assumptions about lost crowd opportunities....or use Fri night and sunday arvo as part of 'Apples v Apples' comparisons.

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

Collingwood Crowds at the docklands in finals years that would have got a gazillion more assuming we would have got our highest ever MCG crowds against the same teams....

2002
Bris 46,279
Syd 45,269
Nth 48,288

2003
Saints 46,096
Kangas 53,312
Geel 45,887
Adel 45,367

2006
Nth 48,721
Saints 48,564

2007
Dogs 46,990
Hawks 50,248
Adel 47,915

2008
Saints 48,417
Dogs 44,885
Nth 46,610
Syd 45,570

2009
Saints 46,880
Dogs 51,382
Dogs 48,888

2010
Dogs 49,000
Saints 49,669

These would have all got between 10,000 and 30,000 more, assuming our highest ever crowds against those teams would have shown up if we played at the G

Also, while we are here

Collingwood's averages against the SA /WA sides in 04/05

At the docklands 36,809
At the MCG 28,472

But of course you don't draw more at the dome in winter when your team is shyte!

 

[pazza]

The numbers aren't so important. It's what happens in amongst the crowd at the match that is.

Crowd seemed flat all match for mine. In a tight match, you'd expect better.

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

breathe..............in......out............take your shoes off..........pour youself a nice drink..............lie down.......go to a happy place..............


but what about the euro and greece.

They should have applied far more stringent fiscal conditions on greece, and others, before entry into the euro

or not let them in

Common currency increases efficiency at the micro level, but you lose the ability to use monetary policy locally

Souvlaki's shouldn't be ruined with chilli sauce

 

[gaelictiogar]

Now while I'm at it I might as well deal with the other Prince of Delusion, Gullible Toiger

Applying the same win diff / ave attendance diff between Collingwood and the Toigs gives

Y = 662 + 9275x

So, in an equal year, the Toigs would draw 9275 less per game than the pies on average

So the gap between richmond and essendon is double that of essendon and Collingwood

Maybe 30 years ago GullibleToiger, maybe 30 years ago

You are completely incapable of listening.

Last time you came off a basement season - when you drew to you homers roughly what essendon or Richmond did to theirs - you sold 29,000 memberships. Last time we came off a basement season we are selling 41,000.

Richmond have been significantly behind for the very reason Carlton were til 2008. MISERABLE EXTENDED FORM. Years of it. With form that would nad will change.

Here is a fact Chaz which with you usual ignorance you will ignroe. Throughout history therea re numerous numerous occasions in which Essendon, Carlton and Richmond have outdrawwn Collingwood. If you hadn't finalled recently both Carlton and Essendon would be ahead.

 

[doppleganger]

Here is a fact Chaz which with you usual ignorance you will ignroe. Throughout history therea re numerous numerous occasions in which Essendon, Carlton and Richmond have outdrawwn Collingwood. If you hadn't finalled recently both Carlton and Essendon would be ahead.

Be interesting if you could list them

According to

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/attendances?year=1989&t=R&h=A&s=T

87 - Carl
96 - Ess
98 - 01 - Ess
04 - Ess

They are the only seasons since 1987 when Collingwood didn't have the largest average attendance. In all of those seasons Collingwood were ranked second.

Pies predominantly 1st, but never lower than 2nd.

Carlton big in the 80s, but very up and down since...some seasons drop down to around 6-7th and have taken back 2nd in recent times.

Essendon all over the shop in 80s and early 90s, dropping as low as 5th best....got their ship together off-filed first and took over in the late 90s, carried it through to strong early performances in the early 00s. Slowly drifting away, and falling back behind Carlton now.

Richmond....pfft not even close, late 80s were wallowing down the bottom drawing less north in many seasons. Best they have ever done is 3rd for a couple of years in mid 90s....

Pies the big ONE...Ess and Carl fighting out for who is the next biggest, they fluctuate depending on who is performing better......Richmond for the last 25 years have been an average drawing team...alongside the saints.

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

GullibleToiger, never thought i'd say this about anyone but you are possibly both more deluded and more petulant than Rainman26

I apologise if tearing down your flimsy "basement year" theory translates to you as "not listening"

Carlton last year to draw above Collingwood 1987 (11 more wins)
Richmond 1982 (14 more wins)

Even way back then when moses was a lad, Richmond only ever did because they were playing at the G. 1982 was the only year ever where Richmond had higher average away crowds (by 300 mind you)

Carlton have done that more often as recently as 2000, but not that often at all. Carlton may have out drawn us a couple more times (95, 2000) if they weren't playing at princess park

Essendon have outdrawn us 7 times
1982.....marginally in 96 and 04....and then 4 times between 98 and 01, in the age of rainman26

Richmond were the fourth of the "big four" even back 30 years ago. Melbourne had one of the bigger home averages well into the late 70's - despite being 15 years out of the 8, because the away support at the MCG was always enormous. You could go there, get a seat, and not get spit on!

Y = 662x + 9,275

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

They are the only seasons since 1987 when Collingwood didn't have the largest average attendance. In all of those seasons Collingwood were ranked second.

Pies predominantly 1st, but never lower than 2nd.

Doppleganger, we should for efficiencies sake take it in turns. Lot of double lifting going on! Unless of course you are my doppleganger and then we shouldn't interact at all.....

In 1982 we had the 4th highest averages...

http://www.stats.rleague.com/afl/crowds/1982.html

that year Richmond, Carlton and essendon occupied 3 of the top 4 spots and we won 4 games

it is the only year as far back as i could be arsed going that we weren't 1st or 2nd. Nearly always 1st though carlton pipped us a couple of times and richmond purely off the back of much higher home attendances (though significantly lower away attendances)

interstingly, back in the day everyone played eachother twice, we almost never had less away averages

 

[dave10]

Have to giggle at how Dan uses Telstra Dome as a negative influence on crowds....check out the scheduling of the MCG/TD split from 2000-2002

Early in the season - March/April, dons play majority of games at the G

Once the weather turns ugly - Dons play their games in doors, in 2001 the dons played 6 of their 9 Colonial stadium games between rnd 9 and 16...or from May 26 to July 16......avoid any option of cold wet rainy game at the G.

Then as move into late July/August and weather improves, surprise surprise the Dons play more MCG games.

And also Essendon's late 90s period....they played 16 games at the G, more than the pies 14 that we play their now. Plus in 98-99 the pies were playing games at VicPark for fecks sake and were an absolute rabble.

Ok, and during the same period when Coll played 14 matches at the G and Essendon 16, did Essendon play the Swans at the SCG which has far smaller crowds than those that watch the Pies at Homebush? Or did the Dons play the Lions at a Gabba ground with much smaller capacity?? Need to consider both sides...

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

Ok, and during the same period when Coll played 14 matches at the G and Essendon 16, did Essendon play the Swans at the SCG which has far smaller crowds than those that watch the Pies at Homebush? Or did the Dons play the Lions at a Gabba ground with much smaller capacity?? Need to consider both sides...

In 98 Essendon played 2 games outside of Vic - one against adelaide and the other against freo. They played one game at princess park - all the rest were at the MCG or waverly....hope that helps

 

[dave10]

As Dan suggests a club's drawing potential is best looked at when the club is down in the basement. At those times restrictions on capacity are less important and in recent years most big games for all clubs are MCG anyway so wea re getting a reasonably apples for apples comparison.

Let's look at the home average in the latest season in which the big clubs have finished in the bottom two....in the basement.

Essendon in 2006: 42,333
Collingwood in 2005: 41,759
Carlton in 2007: 41,583
Richmond in 2009: 40,782.
The Rest: Nowhere


Barely 1,500 between the Big 4 at home when all of them in the basement and consequently not faced with capacity problems when playing smaller clubs at the Dome. Any real differences between the 4 are more apparent than real and are based on form and expectation variations. Like for like they are similar. Surveys while important have to be treated with a pinch of salt. Morgan tell us Essendon have lost a quater of a million fans since 2002 !!!! Have they? No they haven't. What has happened is that thatt percentage have stopped namechecking the then successful Essendon and started namechecking currently successful Geelong or Hawthorn.

With Morgan surveys, they are misleading to some extent due to the small sample size. But the Dreamteam and Supercoach stats tell exactly the same story and are a massive cross section of the communicty. Unlike Morgan, these stats dont swing with team performance. Put aside any club biases, the Dream Team and Supercoach stats draw from such a large pool of footy fans that they are in all honestly the best form of club support breakdown (300,000 people surveyed).

 

[dave10]

It's like you're deliberately not listening to anything I say even though I have posted facts to prove it. If you're not going to listen to facts and just "assume" that what you say is right, then why am I bothering???? Why? And what does that say about you as a person, and your comprehension skills?

It's like you're totally convinced, and nothing will sway you, even though I have shown you dozens of exmaples of the drawing power being equal. But you ignore all of those facts. Why? Pride? Ego? Why, Chaz? is it that hard to ackowledge that the drawng power is the same.

a.) The crowds for BOTH clubs in poor years versus Port/Freo/WCE/Adel are essentially the same

b.) The dreamteam and Supercoach "club supported" are virtually identical

c.) The morgan survey is always about even (it tends to fluctuate by 100,000 either way, but both clubs are always around that 750,000 mark

d.) TV ratings for both club are about the same. Essendon LED the TV averages in 2009 despite losing more than they won. When Essendon was a top team, ratings were through to roof. The two highest rating games in Melbourne in history were 892,000 Ess vs Carl in 2000 and 776,000 Ess vs Dogs in 2000. Ess routinely breaks the 500,000 mark in Melbourne especially when they are winning. As Collingwood do. Look at the figures (apples vs apples)... there is no difference.

e.) The attendances when both clubs are strong is about the same. Does anyone doubt that Essendon's 2000 and 2001 seasons would have drawn 1.2 million (which is about what Collingwood have drawn the last 3 years) if Essendon had played at the MCG in those years? Of course they would have.

Look at 1998 as an example, of how the Dome would affect attendances. Essendon snuck into 8th with a 12-10 record and took until round 17 to have more wins than losses. Despite this, Essendon's total attendance was 1,169,000 people. That's pretty phenomenal, especially for 12 years ago, when memberships were smaller.

How much would Telstra Dome have affetcted those crowds if it was being used? Lets have a look:

Essendon's 11 home games in 1998 were:
vs St.Kilda 53,905 MCG ..............(Ess was 0-1 entering match)
vs Fremantle 26,242 Waverley......(Ess was 2-1 entering match)
vs Geelong 56,063 MCG...............(Ess was 2-4 entering match)
vs Brisbane 35,384 MCG..............(Ess was 2-5 enteirng match)
vs Sydney 62,866 MCG...............(Ess was 5-5 entering match)
vs West Coast 45,277 MCG..........(Ess was 6-6 entering match)
vs Port Adel 37,685 MCG.............(Ess was 6-8 entering mach)
vs Richmond 83,773 MCG............ (Ess was 7-8 entering mach)
vs Carlton 70,969 MCG............... (Ess was 9-8 entering match)
vs Collingwood 64,480 MCG..........(Ess was 11-8 entering match)
vs Bulldogs 67,157 MCG.............. (Ess was 12-8 entering match)

The four games in bold are the four home games that would have been scheduled for the MCG if The Dome was Essendon's home ground.

That means the Bulldogs game would been at the the Dome with about 47,000 costing 20,000 fans. The Sydney game would have been at the Dome with about 45,000 people costing about 15,000 fans. The St.Kilda game would have been at the Dome with about 45,000 people.

There was also a Geelong home game at the MCG in round 22 that drew 61,089. That almost certainly would have been at the Dome too, with Geelong's Dome agreement, so that would have got 45-47,000 at the Dome.

So, conservatively, if Essendon was based at the Dome in 1998, the attendances would have been about 60,000 less.

Which makes about 1.1M which is basically what the Dons drew in 2009 in a year they made the finals by default with just 10 wins. Essendons is a sleeping giant when you think about it.

 

[dave10]

Still don't think playing home games at the Dome affects crowds? Here are Essendon's 1999 home games.

vs Carlton 71,501 MCG
vs Sydney 50,324 MCG
vs Collingwood 73,118 MCG
vs St.Kilda 62,928 MCG
vs Geelong 61,783 MCG
vs Bulldogs 55,230 MCG
vs Fremantle 35,273 MCG
vs Kangaroos 68,831 MCG
vs West Coast 55,096 MCG
vs Richmond 48,835 MCG
vs Melbourne 47,480 MCG

The bold games are the games that would have been the 4 MCG home games if the Dome was Essendon's home ground. ALL OTHERS WOULD HAVE BEEN AT THE DOME. Based on the previous years fixture, the St.Kilda game probably would have been the "4th" MCG home game along with the usual games versus the Pies, Blues and Tigers.

The Sydney game would have got 5,000 less at the Dome
The Geelong game would have got 13-14,000 less at the Dome
The Bulldogs game would have got 7-8,000 less at the Dome
The Kangaroos game would have got 20,000 less at the Dome
The West Coast game would have got 8-10,000 less at the Dome
Even the Melbourne game would have got 5-7,000 less. with the whole Dees/MCC members thing

So, that's another 55-60,000 less at the Dome than at the MCG.

I reckon in 2000 and 2001, if my crowd estimates are correct (and they always are ) the total attendance by playing at the Dome instead of the MCG with Essendon at the height of their powers, would have been at least 60,000 less and maybe as much as 100,000 less, particularly in 2001.

I remember then Richmond Jim Malone at the time labelled this attendance as the most significant attendance he had seen. I think it still stands as West Coasts biggest crowd to a home and away game in Melb. I reckon in 2007 our crowd of 49,000 against them at the Dome would have gone close to the 1999 figure if it was at the MCG with MCC members added into the figure.

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

y=843x + 3216

 

[doppleganger]

Ok, and during the same period when Coll played 14 matches at the G and Essendon 16, did Essendon play the Swans at the SCG which has far smaller crowds than those that watch the Pies at Homebush? Or did the Dons play the Lions at a Gabba ground with much smaller capacity?? Need to consider both sides...

As Chaz mentioned, in 98 the Dons left Victoria TWICE......half as many times as the pies these days!!

Kudos to the Dons for becoming professional before the pies, it resulted in them getting the jump on us in the late 90s.

But now normality has been restored, and the pies are dominating the professional national game just like they did in the suburban amateur league.

 

[dave10]

Thought you would!


You say down the bottom that the revamped MCG is helping to boost attendances.

The rnd 22 game last year, Ess home game, which was basically a final drew 77K. Yet you reckon 80K+ easily back in 01!!

No chance, 70K is being generous.....the Hawthorn bandwagon wasn't about like it is now either. As I said, that game prob cost 20K supporters.....just as the Pies v Dogs game in rnd 11 this year will cost 20K supporters.


I gave the positions in my post.....99 it was 2v8 and in 01 it was 1v9

In 99 it was a Fri night game....always draw bigger crowds
In 01 it was a Sunday.....always draw lower crowds

Yet you think a 1v9 game on a sunday would draw more than 2v8 on a friday night just two years ago??

As I said the 01 Sunday game at the G would have drawn low 50s


98 - Sydney when they played Ess in rnd 10 Sydney were sitting 2nd on the ladder, and it was a Friday night

96 - Sydney when they played Ess in rnd 21 it was Syd sitting in 1st on the ladder, and it was Satday

You use two seasons where the swans were flying....and games were in fan friendly time slots of Friday and Sat night

In 01 Sydney were middle of the road team, and the game was on a Sunday....as I said a crowd of 50K top in that scenario.

You talk apples v apples, and then use Sydney top of the ladder on a Friday night as a guide to a Sunday when middle of the road!!



As I said, you think the revamp has boosted crowds.....yet think Ess v Hawks in 01 would have had a crowd of 80K.....pity last year rnd 22 couldn't even get 80!

I dont think you need to down play 62,000 and 69,000 respectively against the Swans under any circumstances.. How often have Collingwood ever drawn these crowds Vs Sydney at any home match at the G? The Haw game was a huge build up (like Gee V Stk last year) - 80,000 would have been at the MCG without a doubt.

 

[dave10]

Thought you would!


You say down the bottom that the revamped MCG is helping to boost attendances.

The rnd 22 game last year, Ess home game, which was basically a final drew 77K. Yet you reckon 80K+ easily back in 01!!

No chance, 70K is being generous.....the Hawthorn bandwagon wasn't about like it is now either. As I said, that game prob cost 20K supporters.....just as the Pies v Dogs game in rnd 11 this year will cost 20K supporters.


I gave the positions in my post.....99 it was 2v8 and in 01 it was 1v9

In 99 it was a Fri night game....always draw bigger crowds
In 01 it was a Sunday.....always draw lower crowds

Yet you think a 1v9 game on a sunday would draw more than 2v8 on a friday night just two years ago??

As I said the 01 Sunday game at the G would have drawn low 50s


98 - Sydney when they played Ess in rnd 10 Sydney were sitting 2nd on the ladder, and it was a Friday night

96 - Sydney when they played Ess in rnd 21 it was Syd sitting in 1st on the ladder, and it was Satday

You use two seasons where the swans were flying....and games were in fan friendly time slots of Friday and Sat night

In 01 Sydney were middle of the road team, and the game was on a Sunday....as I said a crowd of 50K top in that scenario.

You talk apples v apples, and then use Sydney top of the ladder on a Friday night as a guide to a Sunday when middle of the road!!



As I said, you think the revamp has boosted crowds.....yet think Ess v Hawks in 01 would have had a crowd of 80K.....pity last year rnd 22 couldn't even get 80![/QUOTE]

When was the last time Collingwood drew nearly 78,000 to a home and away match Vs Hawthorn?? (I think a while ago)

 

[dave10]

There was plenty of build-up......but plenty of the build up actually was caused by the drama of the potential move.

What is the record H&A crowd between Ess & Haw??

You say that the redeveloped stand attracts more supporters, yet what was effectively a final couldn't even get 80K last year.

You have to realise that the different days draw different numbers of fans.

The Essendon games in the 90s that you keep referring to were Friday or Satday night games...the 2001 game was a sunday..Sunday simply do not draw as much as other games.

2007 Coll v Syd rd 21 on a satday got 63,400
2009 Coll v Syd rd 21 on a sunday got 54,400

Ess v Syd on a Sunday simply wont get 60+ low 50s at best



Those polls are crap....Roy Morgan isn't an accurate measure of fans or drawing power.....it measures popularity, ie when a team is going well a few more nuffies who have little interest will allocate themselves to a team doing well....early 00s this team was Essendon...since they have dropped away Essendon has supposedly lost more than 200K 'supporters' according to Roy!!

TV Ratings....Chaz summed it up....of course two Vic based teams will rate higher than a vic based team against a non-vic......and when you take out the non-vic games (apples v apples) the pies are much further ahead.

DT, who cares about that.....a good guide to junior support perhaps, but not overall support!


Not radical, but wrong....Chaz showed that pies have better crowds when you factor in performance, that more people want to watch them on TV. You suggesting the Dons are identical is wrong.


You have some Roy Morgan polls, and a misguided belief that playing some home games at TD supposedly cost the dons 100K supporters a year. That is crap.

The pies had been the biggest club since the 20s. Essendon got their ship in order and turned professional first.....and as a result in the late 90s they jumped ahead, during the time when Collingwood was being run into the ground and still playing at VicPark.

Once the pies became professional off-field, ie when McGuire took over, they have since shot back to the front in terms of crowds and interest. No shame in being second dons, just no need to try and falsely claim that the numbers are identical when they clearly show the pies being ahead.

Chaz' figures dont lie...and dont make misguided assumptions about lost crowd opportunities....or use Fri night and sunday arvo as part of 'Apples v Apples' comparisons.

If the 2001 game was at the MCG that game would still stand as the record today (bigger than 2009 round 22).