Essendon 29k?

[Chaz Pendlebury]

I have to disagree Chaz. The Dreamteam and Supercoach comps are such a large pool of footy fans that you cant dismiss it. It is over 200,000 people. The fact that both indicate club breakdowns adds even more weight. Bums on seats and on sets are not as good an indicator because these dont take into account fluctuations in on field form or where teams play (eg Ess at the Dome for 4-5 big Vic club matches).

I am not argueing that Essendon is better supported than Collingwood however I would argue that Essendons support is closer to Collingwoods than you think and if Essendon were performing as well as Collingwood on field and playing all home games at the MCG I think you would find there would be very little difference between the two teams attendances or memberships for that matter.

BTW - I think Essendon rated better than Collingwood on free to air TV in 2009;

I'm not dismissing the DT / SC completely just saying there are a lot of demographic / socioeconomic / computer literacy factors that make it unsound in terms of statistical validity.

Collingwood rates higher consistently over the years when comparing night vs night etc. Our average is pulled down because we have more televised day games and more games against non-vics. Last year Essendon had 2 less games saturday arvo games and four less games against interstate clubs. Overall you had 13 games telecast to our 18 and Carlton's 16. So 8 of your 13 were against your biggest rivals Collingwood, Carlton, Hawthorn, Richmond. That evidently drives up your averages. In 08 we played 20 to essendon's 15. We play more games on fta for a reason. The networks know their stuff

 

[doppleganger]

Have to giggle at how Dan uses Telstra Dome as a negative influence on crowds....check out the scheduling of the MCG/TD split from 2000-2002

Early in the season - March/April, dons play majority of games at the G

Once the weather turns ugly - Dons play their games in doors, in 2001 the dons played 6 of their 9 Colonial stadium games between rnd 9 and 16...or from May 26 to July 16......avoid any option of cold wet rainy game at the G.

Then as move into late July/August and weather improves, surprise surprise the Dons play more MCG games.

And also Essendon's late 90s period....they played 16 games at the G, more than the pies 14 that we play their now. Plus in 98-99 the pies were playing games at VicPark for fecks sake and were an absolute rabble.

 

[Dan26]

Our average is pulled down because we have more televised day games and more games against non-vics.

Essendon's average if you only count games against Victorian oponents is higher than Collingwood's (444,630 444,160 to. Kinda destroys all your credibility right there, Chaz

One thing that always annoys me is when someone leads a particular stat, a poster (you) isn't happy about that so that person, break down the stats excluding, or including the games that YOU want, to invent a new stat that sees Collingwood in front.

Facts are Essendon's free-to-to air average out-rated Collingwood's in 2009 (despite Essendon winning 5 less games)

Facts are Essendon free-to-air games versus Vic opponents was higher than Collingwood, despite winning 5 less games.

So, what do you do? you decided to break the numbers down again and again, excluding all days games and bingo... Collingwood win!! LOL!

If you keep breaking down the numbers more and more, you will eventually find something that suits your "argument."

 

[El_Scorcho]

You guys are basically missing the point. 29k against a low drawing opponent is a good crowd and you should be happy with it. Every other football code in the country would kill for 29k to be a low crowd.

The point is, we constantly cop shit for having horrible crowds when we average ~25,000. Our average would be much, much higher if we got to play our home games against an opponent with 90% of it's supporters in the city the game is being played like the Victorian clubs do.

I'm not going to whinge about it, we still need to improve our crowds, but they are nowhere near as woeful as some would have you believe. Against interstate sides, we do just as well as the average Victorian club.

 

[gaelictiogar]

As Dan suggests a club's drawing potential is best looked at when the club is down in the basement. At those times restrictions on capacity are less important and in recent years most big games for all clubs are MCG anyway so wea re getting a reasonably apples for apples comparison.

Let's look at the home average in the latest season in which the big clubs have finished in the bottom two....in the basement.

Essendon in 2006: 42,333
Collingwood in 2005: 41,759
Carlton in 2007: 41,583
Richmond in 2009: 40,782.
The Rest: Nowhere


Barely 1,500 between the Big 4 at home when all of them in the basement and consequently not faced with capacity problems when playing smaller clubs at the Dome. Any real differences between the 4 are more apparent than real and are based on form and expectation variations. Like for like they are similar. Surveys while important have to be treated with a pinch of salt. Morgan tell us Essendon have lost a quater of a million fans since 2002 !!!! Have they? No they haven't. What has happened is that thatt percentage have stopped namechecking the then successful Essendon and started namechecking currently successful Geelong or Hawthorn.

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

Essendon's average if you only count games against Victorian oponents is higher than Collingwood's (444,630 444,160 to. Kinda destroys all your credibility right there, Chaz

One thing that always annoys me is when someone leads a particular stat, a poster (you) isn't happy about that so that person, break down the stats excluding, or including the games that YOU want, to invent a new stat that sees Collingwood in front.

Facts are Essendon's free-to-to air average out-rated Collingwood's in 2009 (despite Essendon winning 5 less games)

Facts are Essendon free-to-air games versus Vic opponents was higher than Collingwood, despite winning 5 less games.

So, what do you do? you decided to break the numbers down again and again, excluding all days games and bingo... Collingwood win!! LOL!

If you keep breaking down the numbers more and more, you will eventually find something that suits your "argument."

ha ha you're such a fool. you go through the most painful looking mental contortions to try and explain Collingwood's significantly higher crowds but then a perfectly reasonable qualifying of tv ratings are "breaking down the numbers more and more" untli it suits my argument.

would anyone argue with any of these statements?

-games against big melbourne clubs on average will rate higher
-games on friday nights and then saturday nights on average will rate higher
-games on saturday afternoons tend to have the lowest ratings

No one can ever win with you because you are a know-all fool. You have a complete lack of reason and logic, and an uncanny ability to delude yourself

Here's an unbroken down stat for you

Collingwood had 5 more games on FTA in both 09 and 08 than essendon. maybe rainman26 should get a job at the networks. they are clearly not putting enough "analysis" into their selections give the hundreds of millions on the line

 

[gaelictiogar]

Chaz Dan is far from being a fool. He has shown you a raft of stats showing Essendon more or less level with Collingwood. I showed you that Essendon's basement team in 2006 outdrew your 2005 basement team of 2005 in home attendance. I have shown you Richmond's spooners draw more at home than Collingwood's spooners.

OF COURSE you are drawing significantly more in recent years. You are finalling every year but the reality is that you are marginally ahead of essendon and no more. Impressive and all as your 56,000 membership is you are coming off a PF year (your 2nd in 3 years) and you have finalled 4 years in a row and are fancied for top 4 this year. There are a few other clubs in Melbourne who would be 50,000 plus in memberships in those circumstances. I mean last year poor old Richmond sold more memberships than you did on 3 finals in a row - don't talke to me about non ticketeds because we all know they could easily have been made ticketed by the club.

Collingwood are a great club Chaz but don't try to dismiss evidence that their lead is not a great as you want to believe. Dan is right. Essendon's support is for all intents and purposes as big as Collingwoods.

 

[Lensen]

I got bored about halfway through another "Dan26 is never wrong ever" thread but has anyone pointed out that about a bajillion more people go to games this decade just past compared to the 90s?

 

[gaelictiogar]

I got bored about halfway through another "Dan26 is never wrong ever" thread but has anyone pointed out that about a bajillion more people go to games this decade just past compared to the 90s?

Numbers are greater recently. This is the main reason why Collingwood's record attendances in recent years, whilst impressive, are not as impressive as they first appear relative to previous years.

 

[Dan26]

ha ha you're such a fool. you go through the most painful looking mental contortions to try and explain Collingwood's significantly higher crowds but then a perfectly reasonable qualifying of tv ratings are "breaking down the numbers more and more" untli it suits my argument.

would anyone argue with any of these statements?

-games against big melbourne clubs on average will rate higher
-games on friday nights and then saturday nights on average will rate higher
-games on saturday afternoons tend to have the lowest ratings

No one can ever win with you because you are a know-all fool. You have a complete lack of reason and logic, and an uncanny ability to delude yourself

Here's an unbroken down stat for you

Collingwood had 5 more games on FTA in both 09 and 08 than essendon. maybe rainman26 should get a job at the networks. they are clearly not putting enough "analysis" into their selections give the hundreds of millions on the line

It's like you're deliberately not listening to anything I say even though I have posted facts to prove it. If you're not going to listen to facts and just "assume" that what you say is right, then why am I bothering???? Why? And what does that say about you as a person, and your comprehension skills?

It's like you're totally convinced, and nothing will sway you, even though I have shown you dozens of exmaples of the drawing power being equal. But you ignore all of those facts. Why? Pride? Ego? Why, Chaz? is it that hard to ackowledge that the drawng power is the same.

a.) The crowds for BOTH clubs in poor years versus Port/Freo/WCE/Adel are essentially the same

b.) The dreamteam and Supercoach "club supported" are virtually identical

c.) The morgan survey is always about even (it tends to fluctuate by 100,000 either way, but both clubs are always around that 750,000 mark

d.) TV ratings for both club are about the same. Essendon LED the TV averages in 2009 despite losing more than they won. When Essendon was a top team, ratings were through to roof. The two highest rating games in Melbourne in history were 892,000 Ess vs Carl in 2000 and 776,000 Ess vs Dogs in 2000. Ess routinely breaks the 500,000 mark in Melbourne especially when they are winning. As Collingwood do. Look at the figures (apples vs apples)... there is no difference.

e.) The attendances when both clubs are strong is about the same. Does anyone doubt that Essendon's 2000 and 2001 seasons would have drawn 1.2 million (which is about what Collingwood have drawn the last 3 years) if Essendon had played at the MCG in those years? Of course they would have.

Look at 1998 as an example, of how the Dome would affect attendances. Essendon snuck into 8th with a 12-10 record and took until round 17 to have more wins than losses. Despite this, Essendon's total attendance was 1,169,000 people. That's pretty phenomenal, especially for 12 years ago, when memberships were smaller.

How much would Telstra Dome have affetcted those crowds if it was being used? Lets have a look:

Essendon's 11 home games in 1998 were:
vs St.Kilda 53,905 MCG ..............(Ess was 0-1 entering match)
vs Fremantle 26,242 Waverley......(Ess was 2-1 entering match)
vs Geelong 56,063 MCG...............(Ess was 2-4 entering match)
vs Brisbane 35,384 MCG..............(Ess was 2-5 enteirng match)
vs Sydney 62,866 MCG...............(Ess was 5-5 entering match)
vs West Coast 45,277 MCG..........(Ess was 6-6 entering match)
vs Port Adel 37,685 MCG.............(Ess was 6-8 entering mach)
vs Richmond 83,773 MCG............ (Ess was 7-8 entering mach)
vs Carlton 70,969 MCG............... (Ess was 9-8 entering match)
vs Collingwood 64,480 MCG..........(Ess was 11-8 entering match)
vs Bulldogs 67,157 MCG.............. (Ess was 12-8 entering match)

The four games in bold are the four home games that would have been scheduled for the MCG if The Dome was Essendon's home ground.

That means the Bulldogs game would been at the the Dome with about 47,000 costing 20,000 fans. The Sydney game would have been at the Dome with about 45,000 people costing about 15,000 fans. The St.Kilda game would have been at the Dome with about 45,000 people.

There was also a Geelong home game at the MCG in round 22 that drew 61,089. That almost certainly would have been at the Dome too, with Geelong's Dome agreement, so that would have got 45-47,000 at the Dome.

So, conservatively, if Essendon was based at the Dome in 1998, the attendances would have been about 60,000 less.

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

Chaz Dan is far from being a fool. He has shown you a raft of stats showing Essendon more or less level with Collingwood. I showed you that Essendon's basement team in 2006 outdrew your 2005 basement team of 2005 in home attendance. I have shown you Richmond's spooners draw more at home than Collingwood's spooners.

OF COURSE you are drawing significantly more in recent years. You are finalling every year but the reality is that you are marginally ahead of essendon and no more. Impressive and all as your 56,000 membership is you are coming off a PF year (your 2nd in 3 years) and you have finalled 4 years in a row and are fancied for top 4 this year. There are a few other clubs in Melbourne who would be 50,000 plus in memberships in those circumstances. I mean last year poor old Richmond sold more memberships than you did on 3 finals in a row - don't talke to me about non ticketeds because we all know they could easily have been made ticketed by the club.

Collingwood are a great club Chaz but don't try to dismiss evidence that their lead is not a great as you want to believe. Dan is right. Essendon's support is for all intents and purposes as big as Collingwoods.

Wrong on both counts Gaelic, Dan is a fool and so are you. Your selective twist stats to make the spurious case that your clubs are equal to Collingwood

Plot Collingwood and Essendon's performance differential on one access and the attendance differential on the other and you will find that Collingwood's crowds are a few thousand greater than Essendon's. The only times Essendon has drawn more than Collingwood is when they have won at least 4 more games.

In the last 4 years we have averaged almost 10,000 more when significantly ahead 06/08 and in 07/09, when well into the second half of the season 1 or 2 games has separated us, we averaged around 5,000 more. In round 14 last year we were one game ahead and they were ahead of us on the ladder for many rounds earlier in the season. In 07 we one win separated us going into round 18.

It is statistically undeniable.

And your "last year in the basement" analysis is as bad as any nonsense Rainman26 spews out.

Last year Richmond came second last in a year that 6 victorian teams made the finals including all of the big 3 melbourne clubs. Matches against these

In 2007 Carlton came second last when only Collingwood made the finals out of the biggest melbourne teams and only 4 vic teams all up.

In 2006 essendon were similar to carlton in 07 with 4 vics and only collingwood from the big clubs

In 2005, Collingwood shared the bottom 5 rungs with the next big 4 victorian clubs. Mind you that year:

-we averaged 1,600 more than essendon (who had 3 more wins than us)
-we averaged 9,000 more than richmond who had 5 more wins than us
-carlton averaged more than richmond despite 5.5 less wins
-we played in a redeveloping MCG that meant only 70,000 went on Anzac day
-the only three crowds over 60,000 that year involved collingwood where we were they away side
-we still had 6 of the top 8 crowds overall

When you are consistently getting smashed in attendances by teams who finish below you, there is a good chance its because they draw significantly better than you

Richmond are a distant fourth at best. If Essendon is ahead of Carlton it is marginal at best

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

2 up ^^^

Another ranting rainman26 post with no new points...just an emotional rant accusing others of everything he does worst than anyone

-In the early part of the decade he was showing average crowds since the mid 90's as proof that essendon has gone passed Collingwood.

-Now he wants to account for performance, which obviously wasn't afforded back in the day when the bombers were coming off a 3and a half year period where the lost a dozen games.

-I clearly demonstrate that, when accounting for performance, the pies are thousands ahead, with essendon needing at least 4 wins more to break even

-he makes ridiculous comparisons and calls them an "apples with apples" comparison. If anyone looks under his patently self serving comparisons than they are playing around with statistics to suit them

-he posts in an emotional ranting style which is almost begging for a diagnosis

-he repeats himself ad nauseum, cutting and pasting everything he has written on the subject, hoping he can drown everyone out with boredom

well i am bored rainman26. More boredom levels are almost as great as the distance between Collingwood and essendon's draw power. Almost

 

[Dan26]

Still don't think playing home games at the Dome affects crowds? Here are Essendon's 1999 home games.

vs Carlton 71,501 MCG
vs Sydney 50,324 MCG
vs Collingwood 73,118 MCG
vs St.Kilda 62,928 MCG
vs Geelong 61,783 MCG
vs Bulldogs 55,230 MCG
vs Fremantle 35,273 MCG
vs Kangaroos 68,831 MCG
vs West Coast 55,096 MCG
vs Richmond 48,835 MCG
vs Melbourne 47,480 MCG

The bold games are the games that would have been the 4 MCG home games if the Dome was Essendon's home ground. ALL OTHERS WOULD HAVE BEEN AT THE DOME. Based on the previous years fixture, the St.Kilda game probably would have been the "4th" MCG home game along with the usual games versus the Pies, Blues and Tigers.

The Sydney game would have got 5,000 less at the Dome
The Geelong game would have got 13-14,000 less at the Dome
The Bulldogs game would have got 7-8,000 less at the Dome
The Kangaroos game would have got 20,000 less at the Dome
The West Coast game would have got 8-10,000 less at the Dome
Even the Melbourne game would have got 5-7,000 less. with the whole Dees/MCC members thing

So, that's another 55-60,000 less at the Dome than at the MCG.

I reckon in 2000 and 2001, if my crowd estimates are correct (and they always are ) the total attendance by playing at the Dome instead of the MCG with Essendon at the height of their powers, would have been at least 60,000 less and maybe as much as 100,000 less, particularly in 2001.

 

[Dan26]

-Now he wants to account for performance, which obviously wasn't afforded back in the day when the bombers were coming off a 3and a half year period where the lost a dozen games.

God you're full of shit, Chaz. You kow as well as I do, that Essendon's 1998 season (which I posted the home game crowds for above) was 1,169,000 and this was BEFORE Essendon's three years on top of the ladder.

But you are so stubborn and so unable to listen to any of the facts being presented that it is pointless arguing with you.

You just regurgiate the same selective stats, purely aimed at driving up your own argument.

I've showed you that Dome games affect attendances beyong dispute, unless you think getting 69,000 versus the Kangaroos in 1999 would have fitted in the Dome! You'd probably argue that too!

And I have shown you that there is no difference on any apples vs apples comparison betwen the two teams.

BOTH clubs bottom out at about 30,000 when they are poor versus Port/Freo/WCE/Adel. You can't dispute that.

You can play around with your selective stats showing Collingwoods crowds are currently higher despite playing your home games at the MCG (which Essendon don't) AND being a better performed team on the field than Essendon. If you think that is apples vs apples... well, you're an idiot if you think that.

 

[Scrooge]

Whenever there is a thread about crowds, you are sure to find Gaelictiogor throwing his 2 cents worth in order to beef up and justify Richmond's attendance figures. His comments generally revolve around "Big 4", "historical stats", "basement", "What if's" and "If onlys".

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

^^^^

Wow

Go back a decade to a season you lost 4 games and won the minor premiership and assume an attendance of 45,000 at a stadium that holds over 50,000 and you would have had 55,000 more all up?

Not taking into account that we played 4 home games a year at the dome for most of the decade and have played home games in the last three years against the dogs, stkilda, hawthorn and sydney at etihad

Wow

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

So below is the win differential (collingwood wins less bombers wins) against average crowd differential since 1994

What it demonstrates is if you put a plot line through it you get

y=843x + 3216:

which means

1. In an equal year Collingwood average 3,200 more per game
2. One extra win difference is, on average, worth an extra 843 to the averages
2. Essendon need to win 4 more games to equal Collingwoods crowds
3. Assuming that a third of our games are opposition supporters and subtracting out the games we play eachother, Collingwood draws 10 to 15 % more to its games than essendon

The R squared is 0.9 i.e. the statistical relationship is extremely high

There haven't been enough years since carlton moved from Visy, but you'll find they are very similar to essendon if you did the same exercise

that's statistics right there Rainman26, suck it up

win differential average attendance differential
1 4,600
-6 600
-5.5 -2100
1 3,200
-5 -4800
-14 -10,700
-14.5 -7100
-6 -1,900
0.5 4,900
2 7,400
-4 -700
-3 1,100
10.5 10,400
3 6,300
4 9,300
4.5 4,400

 

[doppleganger]

I reckon in 2000 and 2001, if my crowd estimates are correct (and they always are ) the total attendance by playing at the Dome instead of the MCG with Essendon at the height of their powers, would have been at least 60,000 less and maybe as much as 100,000 less, particularly in 2001.

Where do you get this 100K figure from Dan??

Essendon's 7 2001 Colonial Stadium Home Games

Rd 2 - Fri night v Port - 34,918......no diff

Rd 6 - Sun v WC - 33,829.....WC were a rabble that year, pies got 36K to the Colonial Stadium game that year......no diff

Rd 9 - Sat night v Haw - 50,701....I guess this is your big game that you reckon would have grabbed an extra 50K!

Rd 12 - Fri night v Ade - 38,816.....no diff

Rd 13 - Sat v Freo - 29,528.....no diff

Rd 15 - Sun v Geel - 48,152....in 99 you blokes got 61K to Friday night game, that was a 2nd v 8th clash....the 01 game was Sunday and a 1st v 9th clash....so most likely would have only got low 50s at the G.

Rd 19 - Sun Ess v Syd - 45,057...in 99 you blokes got 50K to Satday game....few less for Sunday game so no diff again.

There are the 7 Essendon TD home games and crowds from 2001.....two games where the crowd may have been bigger.

Geelong may have cracked low 50s instead of 48K....so add on a bonus 5K

Ess v Haw games at the G as Ess home games in 96 and 97 drew crowds of 60K and 46K

Haw v Ess game at the G in 2000 as Haw home game drew 46K

So fact that it was a top of the table clash, may have pushed it up to 65-70K at the G...an extra 20K.

My maths is that the Dons may have snaffled an extra 25K if they played all their home games at the G in 2001........big deal.

In rnd 11 this Collingwood play a home game against the dogs at Etihad....the last time we played a home game against the dogs at the G the crowd was 67K. So the pies will miss out on at least 20K this year by having to play home games at Etihad too.

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

Now while I'm at it I might as well deal with the other Prince of Delusion, Gullible Toiger

Applying the same win diff / ave attendance diff between Collingwood and the Toigs gives

Y = 662 + 9275x

So, in an equal year, the Toigs would draw 9275 less per game than the pies on average

So the gap between richmond and essendon is double that of essendon and Collingwood

Maybe 30 years ago GullibleToiger, maybe 30 years ago

 

[windyhill]

Chaz, you didn`t know what you were getting yourself into with these two did you ?

 

[Riggy1]

The crows supporters flat out refuse to attend our games because the hatred runs so deep, so count them out.

Funny story.
This weekend my parents are getting tickets to go to AAMI on Sunday,
only to watch North Adelaide in the under16s grand final
they're planning to leave in the 55minutes between that game and the Port game.

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

Chaz, you didn`t know what you were getting yourself into with these two did you ?

Haha, I did but someone had to do it

Doppleganger, I shot him down first, rainman's mounted head goes into my pool room (when i get one, you can keep it on loan in the meanwhile)

 

[al ain pie]

Chaz, Dan...............any chance you can explain the differing views on the introduction of the euro to greece?

 

[Chaz Pendlebury]

Chaz, Dan...............any chance you can explain the differing views on the introduction of the euro to greece?

Haha, I'm sure I could, but I'll need to see what rainman's position is first and that would determine whether I could be arsed

 

[Dan26]

^^^^

Wow

Go back a decade to a season you lost 4 games and won the minor premiership and assume an attendance of 45,000 at a stadium that holds over 50,000 and you would have had 55,000 more all up?

Why do you think I've gone back to 1998 and 1999? Because those were the last two years Essendon played their home games at the MCG, that's why.

Duh!

Any reasonable anayysis of the crowd figures in thise years suggests Essendon's figure would have been at least around 60,000 less in both years, give or take if they played at the Dome.

Unless you think that getting 69,000 versus the Kangaroos in 1999 would somehow fit in Etihad? You'd probably argue that too.

You've also got to remember that the revamped MCG is attracting far bigger crowds now than it did 12 years ago. It's averaging almsot 60,000 this year so far.

Any reasonable apples vs apples comapriosn between Essendon and Collingwood suggests they have almsot identical support. To argue otherwise is a slap in the face to all the data, surveys and relevant attendnaces that suggest this is the case.