News & Events Non-Football COVID-19 Discussions

[jmoo wan]

Say you catch covid and are vaccinated and it doesn't do much to you, but then next year you get it again (you have had you're booster shot) but are perhaps a bit more sick from a variant that stronger, then the following year you get a mild case...and so on. What happens after we have had it 10 times. We will be allowing it to come, and allowing us to get it multiple times. Will there be some sort of damage to our bodies that will eventually catch up with us and make really sick.

No. The immune system doesn't work like that. Think of it like memories. For example - imagine yesterday you ate a really tasty looking jelly bean that was flavoured like a piece of dog s**t and you ate it and thought, "this is really gross I am never doing that again". But then next year you see a piece of dog s**t that looks delicious but that smells really similar to that jelly bean, and you take a really big sniff of it and it makes you a little woozy, but you remember that jelly bean flavoured dog s**t that you ate last year, and decide not to eat it because it was nasty. And then the year after that, you come across another similar piece of dog s**t that looks really tasty, but maybe this one is a different consistency, and so you have a little nibble, but then before you can go any further it triggers the memory of that dogshit flavoured jelly bean that you really didn't like, and you remember that it is a bad idea so you run away from that particular strain of dogshit.

its just like that.

The jelly bean is the vaccine, and covid is the dogshit.

 

[Old Campaigner]

Numbers don’t suggest that.

View attachment 955467View attachment 955468View attachment 955469View attachment 955470View attachment 955471
View attachment 955480

Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, the US deep south? Probably need to add some controls to the data for lockdowns and other social distancing efforts too.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, the US deep south? Probably need to add some controls to the data for lockdowns and other social distancing efforts too.

Brazil are an interesting case. A year round 45% vitamin d insufficiency despite having good sun exposure and UV levels

Epidemiology of vitamin D insufficiency and deficiency in a population in a sunny country: Geospatial meta-analysis in Brazil - PubMed

Studies conducted among populations of tropical countries have reported high prevalences of vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency. Information resulting from meta-analyses on the spatial distribution of vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency in tropical countries is still rare. The aim of this...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

High dark skinned population and Dietry reason suspected.

Pretty consistent numbers but maybe there should be more exponential growth.

 

[DERO]

I'm okay with 5 cases per day for proper re-opening, since 5 per day with a 14 day illness means that you'd have a cumulative effect of 70-odd infectious people in the state at any one time. Doesn't take much for one of those to go to a restaurant, cough a few times and spread it to a bunch more people and then your R number goes through the roof again.

I do question how they're counting them though. If they start letting returned travellers back into Melbourne then overseas-acquired cases in quarantine shouldn't count towards that number. At least assuming that quarantine is properly secured. Community transmission and mystery cases are far more relevant.

View attachment 955452

And for whatever it's worth, we haven't averaged 5 cases per day over a 14 day window since the 29th of April.

I don't want to sound like a dick but I would imagine it would be much easier to be ok with the numbers if you have a livelihood that is not severely impacted i.e can work from home or have employment that is not impacted.

I am certainly not ok with it.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, the US deep south? Probably need to add some controls to the data for lockdowns and other social distancing efforts too.

Vitamin D Deficiency in the Southern United States

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

“Several studies have revealed that there is also an alarmingly high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in a lower latitude of the United States.”

“The reasons for which living in lower latitudes does not protect against vitamin D deficiency is likely due to the fact that Americans are spending less time outdoors and/or are using more sunscreen for skin cancer protection.”

Fair enough that the weather doesn’t matter if you don’t go out in it. Which is why I think the correlation should be communicated.

 

[Lore]

I don't want to sound like a dick but I would imagine it would be much easier to be ok with the numbers if you have a livelihood that is not severely impacted i.e can work from home or have employment that is not impacted.

I am certainly not ok with it.

What I meant was that (in an abstract way) I am okay with 5 cases as a goal. It's cold logic if we don't want a third wave, and I can't think of much worse than a third wave in the middle of summer and over Christmas. I would anticipate blackouts on top of everything else.

That doesn't mean extending lockdown isn't quite literally ******* depressing. It's better not to assume.

 

[Old Campaigner]

Vitamin D Deficiency in the Southern United States

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

“Several studies have revealed that there is also an alarmingly high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in a lower latitude of the United States.”

“The reasons for which living in lower latitudes does not protect against vitamin D deficiency is likely due to the fact that Americans are spending less time outdoors and/or are using more sunscreen for skin cancer protection.”

Fair enough that the weather doesn’t matter if you don’t go out in it. Which is why I think the correlation should be communicated.

Correlation doesn't equate to causation.

Maybe there's something to it, but until it's been well studied it's just speculation. There's been similar correlations between smoking and covid survival (which led to some research into nicotine blocking ACE2 receptors), BCG vaccine and covid severity and probably others.

Nothing wrong with taking vitamin D as a precaution but with all the other crap/fake medical advice going around in relation to covid (HCQ for example) it'd be a shame if people took it believing it would help protect them from covid when it potentially does nothing. And of course if health authorities recommend it before it's proven it really undermines their credibility at a time when that is all important.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Correlation doesn't equate to causation.

Maybe there's something to it, but until it's been well studied it's just speculation. There's been similar correlations between smoking and covid survival (which led to some research into nicotine blocking ACE2 receptors), BCG vaccine and covid severity and probably others.

Nothing wrong with taking vitamin D as a precaution but with all the other crap/fake medical advice going around in relation to covid (HCQ for example) it'd be a shame if people took it believing it would help protect them from covid when it potentially does nothing. And of course if health authorities recommend it before it's proven it really undermines their credibility at a time when that is all important.

HCQ isn’t even fake advice. The study that decried its viablity has been retracted. The trials have recommenced.

here’s an article about it

Retracted Lancet study ‘a wake-up call’

It is not the first time a journal has retracted a paper. But with such glaring discrepancies, will it affect how people view the peer-review process?

www1.racgp.org.au

Here’s the study:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

here’s an article that the abc did on it.

'The Lancet's got a bit of form, here': How did a retracted study on hydroxychloroquine get through peer review?

Influential medical journal The Lancet has retracted its heavily-criticised study into hydroxychloroquine, a drug touted by Donald Trump as a "game changer" in the fight against coronavirus. So how did the paper slip through the cracks?

www.google.com

The retraction certainly wasn’t as publicised as the initial rebuttal for some reason.

 

[Old Campaigner]

HCQ isn’t even fake advice. The study that decried its viablity has been retracted. The trials have recommenced.

here’s an article about it

Retracted Lancet study ‘a wake-up call’

It is not the first time a journal has retracted a paper. But with such glaring discrepancies, will it affect how people view the peer-review process?

www1.racgp.org.au

Here’s the study:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

here’s an article that the abc did on it.

'The Lancet's got a bit of form, here': How did a retracted study on hydroxychloroquine get through peer review?

Influential medical journal The Lancet has retracted its heavily-criticised study into hydroxychloroquine, a drug touted by Donald Trump as a "game changer" in the fight against coronavirus. So how did the paper slip through the cracks?

www.google.com

The retraction certainly wasn’t as publicised as the initial rebuttal for some reason.

And the RECOVERY trials that found it had no beneficial effects?

 

[Red Black and Blue]

And the RECOVERY trials that found it had no beneficial effects?

An Italian study showed a 30% difference in mortality rates and a Belgium one had reported 10%
difference both published in the last two weeks.

Use of hydroxychloroquine in hospitalised COVID-19 patients is associated with reduced mortality: Findings from the observational multicentre Italian CORIST study

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) was proposed as potential treatment for COVID-19.

www.ejinme.com

 

[DERO]

Do you think Dan Andrews might let me reopen my business a bit earlier if I can demonstrate that I have been taking my vitamin D?

 

[Lore]

Do you think Dan Andrews might let me reopen my business a bit earlier if I can demonstrate that I have been taking my vitamin D?

I heard that you get a much worse case of COVID-19 if you're balding or have otherwise high levels of testosterone. They have medication for that too

 

[Old Campaigner]

An Italian study showed a 30% difference in mortality rates and a Belgium one had reported 10%
difference both published in the last two weeks.

Use of hydroxychloroquine in hospitalised COVID-19 patients is associated with reduced mortality: Findings from the observational multicentre Italian CORIST study

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) was proposed as potential treatment for COVID-19.

www.ejinme.com

However, the observed associations should be considered with caution, as the observational design of our study does not allow to fully excluding the possibility of residual confounders. Large randomized clinical trials in well-defined geographical and socio-economic conditions and in well-characterized COVID-19 patients, should evaluate the role of HCQ before any firm conclusion can be reached regarding a potential benefit of this drug in patients with COVID-19.

There's more rigorous studies that don't show much effect, if any. They mention a few in the study you linked. Obviously it is still something to be resolved through further research but the point stands that right now it's unproven as a treatment. Certainly if it was some sort of miracle cure there would be none of the ambiguity around it's use because there would be strong effects noticed from the trials undertaken so far..

It's interesting how this particular drug has become almost a totem for certain political ideologies, while there's at least one steroid that has been shown to be safe and effective in multiple studies and it has got very little attention outside of medical settings.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

There's more rigorous studies that don't show much effect, if any. They mention a few in the study you linked. Obviously it is still something to be resolved through further research but the point stands that right now it's unproven as a treatment. Certainly if it was some sort of miracle cure there would be none of the ambiguity around it's use because there would be strong effects noticed from the trials undertaken so far..

It's interesting how this particular drug has become almost a totem for certain political ideologies, while there's at least one steroid that has been shown to be safe and effective in multiple studies and it has got very little attention outside of medical settings.

No doubt there is significant political championing of the drug with a lot of premature celebrations at every development. Every deep dive I’ve done the topic has me sliding between pessimistic and optimistic. Combination trials, different stages and dosages.

The randomised recovery trials apparently used high loading dose (2400mg) in the first 24 hours. The Uk recommended maximum is 500mg per day.

For the sake of the Melbourne trials going on currently I hope their is truth to the combination outcomes with zinc and azithromycin.

I doubt there will be a miracle cure. As is so common with cancer what works for some won’t work with someone else’s biology. Just try to get to the best case of probability.

 

[DERO]

Some of you might be interested regarding where commercial operations are at a s a result of Covid19. The following has come from Justin Rodski:

.... As a consequence we have made a number of incredibly difficult decisions, but these decisions ultimately have been made in the best interests of protecting our club through these challenging times, while also best positioning us for a future in what will be a changed sporting landscape. It is important to note that before reaching this process, the club exhausted a wide range of measures, including (but not limited to): reduced hours / stand down actions, removal of executive bonuses, accessing Government support measures (e.g. Job Keeper), cost freezing, voluntary redundancy, reduction in services and deferral of capital works where possible.

Even with these measures, the scale of the financial challenge for the club (and industry) is significant, and therefore all costs have been forensically reviewed, including staff. Through this process the club has completed a broad ranging restructure of its administration which will take effect from 1 November, which in summary, will see a reduction of c.35% of total workforce. For those remaining with the club, there will be a skeleton workforce in operation from November 2020 - February 2021 to further manage our costs during this time. With that in mind, we will need to be smarter about our strategic priorities moving forward, with a razor sharp and efficient focus on our core priorities, partners and stakeholders.

 

[pepsi]

will see a reduction of c.35% of total workforce.

Wow. A third of the workforce, it is quite upsetting not just for those at the club, but you would think that will be industry wide.

 

[Lore]

It’s hard. And we’re one of the better off clubs atm, quite a few had to sign up to the AFL for help and the meddling that comes with that.

 

[DERO]

Wow. A third of the workforce, it is quite upsetting not just for those at the club, but you would think that will be industry wide.

Bloody scary isn't it?

 

[jmoo wan]

Bloody scary isn't it?

very, but also masterfully hidden within 2 paragraphs of bullshit.

 

[boncer34]

Mikakos resigned. Good riddance to a terrible politician.

 

[Mr Bultitude]

Mikakos resigned. Good riddance to a terrible politician.

Agreed, although someone has to take the hit for Dan I guess.

 

[DERO]

Agreed, although someone has to take the hit for Dan I guess.

Whilst I don't necessarily agree or disagree, I don't think he will be far behind.

 

[DERO]

Is she knows what is good for her she will flee the state.

 

[boncer34]

Agreed, although someone has to take the hit for Dan I guess.

She's more to blame then Dan. Though she should've been sacked from holding any ministry after her bright idea to move Juvenile defenders into adult prisons, instead she pivoted into health at the worst possible time.

I'd also say she should've been blacklisted after using tax payers funds inappropriately multiple times. But then we'd have nobody representing us.

 

[Mr Bultitude]

Whilst I don't necessarily agree or disagree, I don't think he will be far behind.

Fair. I won't try and hide my bias (I've been a Dan critic since before it was cool). But I get where you're coming from, it makes sense for the health minister to take the heat over the Premier. It's all a bit unfortunate really, as I think we'll start seeing what politicians do best soon...

 

[DERO]

Fair. I won't try and hide my bias (I've been a Dan critic since before it was cool). But I get where you're coming from, it makes sense for the health minister to take the heat over the Premier. It's all a bit unfortunate really, as I think we'll start seeing what politicians do best soon...

I don't want to turn this into a political debate but I may or may not be with you.