Essendon Football Club vs Brisbane Lions – Sunday 02/07/17, 1:10pm at Ethiad Stadium (Ess @ $1.10 and Bris @ $7.00)
Summary
For the second week in a row, Brisbane will be playing a team that in the previous week lost by one point. Essendon had victory snatched from their grasp with seconds to go by a one armed contested mark in the goal square by Gary Rohan of all people. This will mean Essendon will be raring for a win after having hit some good form over their last five games and only having two wins to show for it. While Brisbane’s single win from its previous five games might suggest the team has struggled, the statistic is not reflective of the gradual improvement that has been on display by individuals in this young team. This week’s match shapes as one teams chance at a confidence building win and another teams chance at showing the competition what the future can hold for a once powerful club.
The answer is 16 out of 57
Another week and another injury to one of our star midfielders. It goes off almost like clockwork these injuries to our three established “star” players. Perhaps in some parallel universe there is a Brisbane Lions team frustrated at the fact Beams, Rockliff and Zorko only average 85 disposals, 3 goals and 20 tackles a game in their 57 games together so far (one can dream)… meanwhile in our reality we have enjoyed 16 full games out of a possible 57 with those three together.
Key Matchups
Essendon Tall Forwards vs Brisbane Tall Defenders:
Joe Daniher vs Harris Andrews
Joe Daniher has established himself as one of the dominant power forwards this year. The 23 year old at 200cm and 95kg (he must be heavier than that!) is pulling some very impressive numbers – he averages 16 disposals, 7 marks and almost 3 goals a game (he is 3rd in the coleman medal). He is now locked in as Essendon’s number one target in the forward line and has deservedly earned that right.
Harris Andrews is slowly establishing himself as one of the better key defenders in the game. His long reach and generally good positioning regularly enables him to get his fist in the way of the forwards marking attempt or when the opportunity arises, take the intercept mark. The 20 year old at 202cm and 100kg probably has the size to match it with Daniher in contested situations but may struggle against the stronger Hooker. One of Andrews’ admitted weaknesses is his pace, this is something he will need to be warry of with Daniher, as the moment Joe gets a clear run and jump at the ball he is unlikely to be stopped from taking the mark.
Cale Hooker vs Daniel McStay
Cale Hooker missed last week’s loss to Sydney due to a finger injury, but he appears to be a likely in for this week’s game. The 28 year old at 197cm and 101kg, is fast becoming the “Robin” of the Essendon dynamic duo. But don’t let that fool you into thinking he can’t be a match winner this weekend. The 2014 All Australian defender showed in his last match that he too can be the main man in the forward line kicking 5.3 against Port Adelaide in what was arguably close to a best on ground performance. He too is averaging some impressive numbers as that second key forward target – 13 disposals, 6 marks and 2 goals a game (he is ranked 4th in the competition for contested marks).
Daniel McStay has been showing fantastic signs this year as another reliable key defender for years to come for the Lions. While he probably has more work to do in developing his defensive game than Andrews, he has the tools to be effective in nullifying both Daniher and Hooker. Due to him (195cm and 94kg) being slightly undersized against the bigger key forwards of Essendon, the 22 year old will need to be smart with his positioning and body contact while being very sure when going for his intercept marks.
Essendon Small Forwards vs Brisbane Small Defenders:
Orazio Fantasia vs Nicholas Robertson
At 21 years old, Fantasia has proven to be an extremely damaging player in attack. The creative forward not only kicks goals but creates them too. He is one that will need to be closely watched by our smaller defenders as he can break the game open. He is having an impressive season for a small forward averaging – 14 disposals, 4 marks and 2 goals per game (he is also 4th in the league for goal assists).
Robertson is a relentless and ardent defender who is fast becoming an enforcer of the Lions backline. At 22 years of age, he has shown this year to be able to play his role for the team and not take a backward step. The 190cm and 87kg defender, he is one of a few Lions players who weekly face more fancied and often smaller opponents and yet is important to the Lions chances for success. I fancy him up matching up well against Fantasia, where he will have the tank and defensive discipline to cover him the whole game.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti vs Darcy Gardiner
At 171cm and 76kg Tipungwuti has proven to be a real highlight package this year, who also applies good forward half pressure. The 24 year old has been a consistent contributor in Essendon’s wins. He may not have huge pace, but he is quick enough and can really hurt with the ball and hunt it when he doesn’t have it. He is one Brisbane will need to not give an opportunity to, otherwise he will get better the more he gets it. For a small forward, he too is having a good season – 14 disposals, 3 marks and 1.5 goals a game (a feature of his game is the pressure he can apply without the ball)
Darcy is developing his game to become a versatile defender, capable of playing on medium to small forwards. He will be an important part in nullifying those dangerous medium to small range forwards Essendon have. Don’t be surprised to see the 192cm defender standing on Tipungwuiti at some point during the game. He may not have the agility, but he can make that up in aggression and tenacity. While probably not in the greatest form for parts of this year, in my opinion he is an important cog in shutting down the oppositions most dangerous medium to small forwards.
Essendon Tall Defenders vs Brisbane Tall Forwards:
Michael Hurley vs Eric Hipwood
The 2015 All Australian defender was played in the forward line against Sydney last week (at least for a period of time), but has looked to be on top of his game as Essendon’s main key defender. The 193cm 92kg (it's hard to believe he is only 92kg) defender, not only has been effective at shutting down the oppositions main key forward, but his ability to add to Essendon’s defensive rebound is very impressive for a big man. Whichever forward he marks this week, that forward will need to ensure they keep him accountable. He is averaging a remarkable – 24 disposals and 7 marks a game (he is also 1st in the league for rebound 50s per game).
This 202cm 92kg key forward has been beacon of hope in a two-win season (so far) for Brisbane, but the 19 year old will have his work cut out this week against Hurley. Clearly having a height advantage, he will need to be consistently on the move to gather his possessions, otherwise he will be next to no chance of out marking Hurley. Unfortunately, even in the best-case scenario it would be very doubtful Hipwood has the tank to play out a full game on Hurley and still be very effective (hopefully this is where Brisbane’s 2nd tall can play his role and match up on Hurley). The best-case scenario for Brisbane here is Hipwood kicking 2 or 3 goals from 10 odd disposals and keeping Hurley below 20 disposals (which has only happened once this season). A very tough ask.
Essendon Small Defenders vs Brisbane Small Forwards:
Mark Baguley vs Lewis Taylor
He will be a bit of a no name for most Lions fans, but I believe he usually matches up on the most dangerous small forwards of the opposition and therefore his performance becomes important. At 178cm and 81kg, the 30 year old defender could likely line up on our most dangerous small forward in Lewis Taylor.
Coming into his fourth season, Taylor appears to finally have enough confidence in his game to back himself. The 22 year old is having his best season to date, with him showing off his fantastic agility, pace and skills. He will be an important playmaker kicking into the forward 50m arc. Lewis is averaging 19 disposals, 4 marks and 1 goal a game (he is Brisbane’s leading goal assist provider)
Essendon Midfielders/Flankers vs Brisbane Midfielders/Flankers
I have bunched up the midfielders and flankers, as I think in this day and age they all roll through the midfield at some stage (whether that is as a winger, a centreman or a follower etc.). I have listed what I believe is each team’s top six.
Dyson Heppell, Jobe Watson, Zachary Merrett, David Zaharakis, Brendon Goddard and James Kelly
vs
Tom Rockliff, Dayne Zorko, Daniel Rich, Rhys Mathieson, Sam Mayes and Tom Cutler
With the loss of Dayne Beams, Essendon have a clear advantage in midfield depth and Brisbane will need to be on their game to combat this. Hopefully Daniel Rich can spend a bit more time in the midfield to make up for part of the minutes lost by Beams’ absence and Mathieson can continue on from his impressive game last week (32 disposals, 16 contested). Otherwise, if not Rich, it may be Ryan Bastinac who is called to play Beams’ midfield minutes. While Zorko will likely be a tagging target by Essendon after a quite week against GWS where he was tagged.
Heppell, Watson, Merrett and Goddard are key cogs in the Essendon midfield and all get high disposal numbers. If Rockliff, Zorko, Mathieson and Rich (or Bastinac) can get enough ball to match it with those four Essendon players, the midfield could be an entertaining battle to watch.
Essendon Ruckman vs Brisbane Ruckman
Tom Bellchambers and Shaun McKernan vs Stefan Martin and Archie Smith
While it is hard to guarantee McKernan and Smith’s selections, Bellchambers and Martin are the likely main attraction here.
Tom Bellchambers is more of a traditional ruckman who is capable of hitting the scoreboard. Martin will need to ensure he gets the spoil in when Bellchambers drags him into the Brisbane defensive 50 trying to impact the scoreboard. Due to the loss of Beams and Bellchambers not a big disposal getter, it will be important Martin takes full advantage of his abilities in the midfield and is that link man in the middle for the rest of Brisbane’s midfield.
Final Word
As in all games these days, the midfield that applies the best pressure without the ball and the team that uses the football best will have a much greater chance of winning. Essendon are one of the higher disposal teams in the competition and are in fact second in the league for marks per game. Keeping Essendon’s uncontested marks as low as possible should be a priority for Brisbane. Essendon’s more mature bodies are something Brisbane will struggle to keep up with for a full game, which will mean avoiding as much defensive running from turnovers will be vital to Brisbane staying in the match.
Not confident, Essendon by 32 points.
Summary
For the second week in a row, Brisbane will be playing a team that in the previous week lost by one point. Essendon had victory snatched from their grasp with seconds to go by a one armed contested mark in the goal square by Gary Rohan of all people. This will mean Essendon will be raring for a win after having hit some good form over their last five games and only having two wins to show for it. While Brisbane’s single win from its previous five games might suggest the team has struggled, the statistic is not reflective of the gradual improvement that has been on display by individuals in this young team. This week’s match shapes as one teams chance at a confidence building win and another teams chance at showing the competition what the future can hold for a once powerful club.
The answer is 16 out of 57
Another week and another injury to one of our star midfielders. It goes off almost like clockwork these injuries to our three established “star” players. Perhaps in some parallel universe there is a Brisbane Lions team frustrated at the fact Beams, Rockliff and Zorko only average 85 disposals, 3 goals and 20 tackles a game in their 57 games together so far (one can dream)… meanwhile in our reality we have enjoyed 16 full games out of a possible 57 with those three together.
Key Matchups
Essendon Tall Forwards vs Brisbane Tall Defenders:
Joe Daniher vs Harris Andrews
Joe Daniher has established himself as one of the dominant power forwards this year. The 23 year old at 200cm and 95kg (he must be heavier than that!) is pulling some very impressive numbers – he averages 16 disposals, 7 marks and almost 3 goals a game (he is 3rd in the coleman medal). He is now locked in as Essendon’s number one target in the forward line and has deservedly earned that right.
Harris Andrews is slowly establishing himself as one of the better key defenders in the game. His long reach and generally good positioning regularly enables him to get his fist in the way of the forwards marking attempt or when the opportunity arises, take the intercept mark. The 20 year old at 202cm and 100kg probably has the size to match it with Daniher in contested situations but may struggle against the stronger Hooker. One of Andrews’ admitted weaknesses is his pace, this is something he will need to be warry of with Daniher, as the moment Joe gets a clear run and jump at the ball he is unlikely to be stopped from taking the mark.
Cale Hooker vs Daniel McStay
Cale Hooker missed last week’s loss to Sydney due to a finger injury, but he appears to be a likely in for this week’s game. The 28 year old at 197cm and 101kg, is fast becoming the “Robin” of the Essendon dynamic duo. But don’t let that fool you into thinking he can’t be a match winner this weekend. The 2014 All Australian defender showed in his last match that he too can be the main man in the forward line kicking 5.3 against Port Adelaide in what was arguably close to a best on ground performance. He too is averaging some impressive numbers as that second key forward target – 13 disposals, 6 marks and 2 goals a game (he is ranked 4th in the competition for contested marks).
Daniel McStay has been showing fantastic signs this year as another reliable key defender for years to come for the Lions. While he probably has more work to do in developing his defensive game than Andrews, he has the tools to be effective in nullifying both Daniher and Hooker. Due to him (195cm and 94kg) being slightly undersized against the bigger key forwards of Essendon, the 22 year old will need to be smart with his positioning and body contact while being very sure when going for his intercept marks.
Essendon Small Forwards vs Brisbane Small Defenders:
Orazio Fantasia vs Nicholas Robertson
At 21 years old, Fantasia has proven to be an extremely damaging player in attack. The creative forward not only kicks goals but creates them too. He is one that will need to be closely watched by our smaller defenders as he can break the game open. He is having an impressive season for a small forward averaging – 14 disposals, 4 marks and 2 goals per game (he is also 4th in the league for goal assists).
Robertson is a relentless and ardent defender who is fast becoming an enforcer of the Lions backline. At 22 years of age, he has shown this year to be able to play his role for the team and not take a backward step. The 190cm and 87kg defender, he is one of a few Lions players who weekly face more fancied and often smaller opponents and yet is important to the Lions chances for success. I fancy him up matching up well against Fantasia, where he will have the tank and defensive discipline to cover him the whole game.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti vs Darcy Gardiner
At 171cm and 76kg Tipungwuti has proven to be a real highlight package this year, who also applies good forward half pressure. The 24 year old has been a consistent contributor in Essendon’s wins. He may not have huge pace, but he is quick enough and can really hurt with the ball and hunt it when he doesn’t have it. He is one Brisbane will need to not give an opportunity to, otherwise he will get better the more he gets it. For a small forward, he too is having a good season – 14 disposals, 3 marks and 1.5 goals a game (a feature of his game is the pressure he can apply without the ball)
Darcy is developing his game to become a versatile defender, capable of playing on medium to small forwards. He will be an important part in nullifying those dangerous medium to small range forwards Essendon have. Don’t be surprised to see the 192cm defender standing on Tipungwuiti at some point during the game. He may not have the agility, but he can make that up in aggression and tenacity. While probably not in the greatest form for parts of this year, in my opinion he is an important cog in shutting down the oppositions most dangerous medium to small forwards.
Essendon Tall Defenders vs Brisbane Tall Forwards:
Michael Hurley vs Eric Hipwood
The 2015 All Australian defender was played in the forward line against Sydney last week (at least for a period of time), but has looked to be on top of his game as Essendon’s main key defender. The 193cm 92kg (it's hard to believe he is only 92kg) defender, not only has been effective at shutting down the oppositions main key forward, but his ability to add to Essendon’s defensive rebound is very impressive for a big man. Whichever forward he marks this week, that forward will need to ensure they keep him accountable. He is averaging a remarkable – 24 disposals and 7 marks a game (he is also 1st in the league for rebound 50s per game).
This 202cm 92kg key forward has been beacon of hope in a two-win season (so far) for Brisbane, but the 19 year old will have his work cut out this week against Hurley. Clearly having a height advantage, he will need to be consistently on the move to gather his possessions, otherwise he will be next to no chance of out marking Hurley. Unfortunately, even in the best-case scenario it would be very doubtful Hipwood has the tank to play out a full game on Hurley and still be very effective (hopefully this is where Brisbane’s 2nd tall can play his role and match up on Hurley). The best-case scenario for Brisbane here is Hipwood kicking 2 or 3 goals from 10 odd disposals and keeping Hurley below 20 disposals (which has only happened once this season). A very tough ask.
Essendon Small Defenders vs Brisbane Small Forwards:
Mark Baguley vs Lewis Taylor
He will be a bit of a no name for most Lions fans, but I believe he usually matches up on the most dangerous small forwards of the opposition and therefore his performance becomes important. At 178cm and 81kg, the 30 year old defender could likely line up on our most dangerous small forward in Lewis Taylor.
Coming into his fourth season, Taylor appears to finally have enough confidence in his game to back himself. The 22 year old is having his best season to date, with him showing off his fantastic agility, pace and skills. He will be an important playmaker kicking into the forward 50m arc. Lewis is averaging 19 disposals, 4 marks and 1 goal a game (he is Brisbane’s leading goal assist provider)
Essendon Midfielders/Flankers vs Brisbane Midfielders/Flankers
I have bunched up the midfielders and flankers, as I think in this day and age they all roll through the midfield at some stage (whether that is as a winger, a centreman or a follower etc.). I have listed what I believe is each team’s top six.
Dyson Heppell, Jobe Watson, Zachary Merrett, David Zaharakis, Brendon Goddard and James Kelly
vs
Tom Rockliff, Dayne Zorko, Daniel Rich, Rhys Mathieson, Sam Mayes and Tom Cutler
With the loss of Dayne Beams, Essendon have a clear advantage in midfield depth and Brisbane will need to be on their game to combat this. Hopefully Daniel Rich can spend a bit more time in the midfield to make up for part of the minutes lost by Beams’ absence and Mathieson can continue on from his impressive game last week (32 disposals, 16 contested). Otherwise, if not Rich, it may be Ryan Bastinac who is called to play Beams’ midfield minutes. While Zorko will likely be a tagging target by Essendon after a quite week against GWS where he was tagged.
Heppell, Watson, Merrett and Goddard are key cogs in the Essendon midfield and all get high disposal numbers. If Rockliff, Zorko, Mathieson and Rich (or Bastinac) can get enough ball to match it with those four Essendon players, the midfield could be an entertaining battle to watch.
Essendon Ruckman vs Brisbane Ruckman
Tom Bellchambers and Shaun McKernan vs Stefan Martin and Archie Smith
While it is hard to guarantee McKernan and Smith’s selections, Bellchambers and Martin are the likely main attraction here.
Tom Bellchambers is more of a traditional ruckman who is capable of hitting the scoreboard. Martin will need to ensure he gets the spoil in when Bellchambers drags him into the Brisbane defensive 50 trying to impact the scoreboard. Due to the loss of Beams and Bellchambers not a big disposal getter, it will be important Martin takes full advantage of his abilities in the midfield and is that link man in the middle for the rest of Brisbane’s midfield.
Final Word
As in all games these days, the midfield that applies the best pressure without the ball and the team that uses the football best will have a much greater chance of winning. Essendon are one of the higher disposal teams in the competition and are in fact second in the league for marks per game. Keeping Essendon’s uncontested marks as low as possible should be a priority for Brisbane. Essendon’s more mature bodies are something Brisbane will struggle to keep up with for a full game, which will mean avoiding as much defensive running from turnovers will be vital to Brisbane staying in the match.
Not confident, Essendon by 32 points.
