Preview Essendon vs GWS, Docklands, Thursday 27/06/19, 7:20 PM

Does Eth mean goals or points in the margin?


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eth-dog

Premium Gold
Jan 11, 2007
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Essendon
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Observations

Essendon: Lost to the reigning premiers by 6 goals, and were lucky it wasn't more with 14.22 by the Eagles. Cale Hooker was fantastic again, having 28 disposals and 15 marks playing in defence. Josh Begley was excellent too with 3 goals playing forward, whilst Zach Merrett and Dyson Heppell had 30 touches apiece in the middle.

GWS: The Giants had the bye but before it they defeated North Melbourne by 23 points, it was an even first half before they broke away with a 7 goal to 3 second half. Toby Greene was the pick of the forwards with 3 goals, whilst Josh Kelly had 35 disposals running through the middle, Tim Taranto also having 30.


Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 1-4 GWS


Form Guide

Essendon: 3W 2L
GWS: 4W 1L


Sportsbet odds

Essendon: $2.53
GWS: $1.48
Line: 10.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Essendon vs GWS

B: Michael Hurley - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Jeremy Finlayson - Harrison Himmelberg - Sam Reid
HB: Conor McKenna - Patrick Ambrose - Mason Redman
HF: Brent Daniels - Jeremy Cameron - Toby Greene
C: Andrew McGrath - Dylan Clarke - Zach Merrett
C: Brett Deledio - Tim Taranto - Harry Perryman
HF: Josh Begley - Mitchell Brown - Orazio Fantasia
HB: Adam Kennedy - Sam Taylor - Jake Stein
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Shaun McKernan - Jayden Laverde
B: Zachary Williams - Phil Davis - Heath Shaw
R: Tom Bellchambers - Dylan Shiel - Dyson Heppell
R: Shane Mumford - Josh Kelly - Stephen Coniglio
I: Darcy Parish - Martin Gleeson - Kyle Langford - David Zaharakis
I: Jacob Hopper - Adam Tomlinson - Matthew Buntine - Isaac Cumming

Essendon in: Martin Gleeson; Out: Matthew Guelfi (inj)
GWS in: Isaac Cumming; Out: Matt De Boer (inj)


GWS defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.6% of the time it enters the 50. GWS are very strong at this end as well, conceding a goal 21.1% of the time it enters defensive 50, ranked 6th in this area. The Giants addition of Jake Stein into their defence will be important, his most likely match up is Shaun McKernan, who has only kicked 1 goal since returning from injury, which will allow captain Phil Davis to go to the dangerous Jake Stringer. Adam Kennedy has enjoyed a strong season, and will have a challenge with small forward Orazio Fantasia, who is arguably Essendon's most important player.


Midfield/rucks battle

Not a lot seperates the two teams in terms of clearance differential or contested possession differential, which indicates it will probably be a close game in tight, but the advantage for the Giants is that they're much stronger on the outside with the likes of Brett Deledio, Harry Perryman and Adam Tomlinson being classy outside midfielders compared to the out of form David Zaharakis and young gun Andrew McGrath. Dylan Clarke has quelled a couple of players this season, and will have a big job against Stephen Coniglio who has been stellar this season for the Giants, whilst Josh Kelly and Zach Merrett probably go head-to-head now that the Giants have lost tagger Matt de Boer for the next 8 weeks. In terms of the ruck battle, Shane Mumford has been solid this season, averaging 39 hit outs and 3 clearances a game, whilst Tom Bellchambers has the best hit out to advantage percentage of the regular rucks this year.


GWS forward line vs Essendon defence

The Giants are the second best side going inside 50 this season, kicking a goal 26.7% of the time it enters their forward 50. Essendon conced a goal 19.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. The Giants have found a player forward of centre with the addition of Jeremy Finlayson, the 196 cm former defender has 25 goals this season but will have a tough match up in Cale Hooker, whilst Jeremy Cameron has hit a form slump with only 2 goals in his past 2 games, and will be playing against the in-form Patrick Ambrose who has been excellent at shutting down the best opposition forward this season, whilst Adam Saad against Toby Greene promises to be a tantalising prospect.


X-Factor Player

Brent Daniels has snuck under the radar this season, but as a half forward he's had 15 goal assists this season, top 4 in the AFL so far, and will be key against Mason Redman this week.


Key stat

Essendon: Inside 50 conversion. GWS are great at choking teams, need to take their chances unlike in the first quarter in round 1.

GWS: Clearances. Must be strong around the ball, when they win the clearances they win most of the time.


Tip

GWS are much better, so the Giants by 33
 
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JayJ20

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 28, 2016
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In: Stringer, Gleeson, Z Clarke (shudder) if TBC is suspended
Out: Brown, Guelfi, TBC

Langford was really bad. Went back to his old ways. Lucky not to be dropped if he stays in.
 

Bombers36

Club Legend
Jul 15, 2008
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Essendon
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Essendon
Not sure GWS are anywhere near as good as the Eagles, that said we had a lot of players down so need a better all round performance here. They say a week in football is a long time and we are capable of turning things around at Marvel stadium - a ground we play well. Stringer back in will definitely help, and I'd like to see Marty Gleeson get a run also. No need for mass changes - maybe something like;-

OUT: Redman, Guelfi
IN: Gleeson, Stringer

Ambrose Hurley Saad
Gleeson Hooker McKenna
Merrett Parish McGrath
Brown Laverde Begley
McKernan Stringer Fantasia

Bellcho Heppell Shiel

Zakka D.Clarke Tippa Langford


Comon Bombers...!!!
 

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JayJ20

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 28, 2016
9,859
13,607
AFL Club
Essendon
Not sure GWS are anywhere near as good as the Eagles, that said we had a lot of players down so need a better all round performance here. They say a week in football is a long time and we are capable of turning things around at Marvel stadium - a ground we play well. Stringer back in will definitely help, and I'd like to see Marty Gleeson get a run also. No need for mass changes - maybe something like;-

OUT: Redman, Guelfi
IN: Gleeson, Stringer

Ambrose Hurley Saad
Gleeson Hooker McKenna
Merrett Parish McGrath
Brown Laverde Begley
McKernan Stringer Fantasia

Bellcho Heppell Shiel

Zakka D.Clarke Tippa Langford


Comon Bombers...!!!
I think GWS are better than the Eagles this year.
 

Bombers36

Club Legend
Jul 15, 2008
2,622
899
Essendon
AFL Club
Essendon
We did that last year when they won the flag. GWS is better this year.
GWS better than how - us? - yes. GWS better than the Eagles? - totally disagree.
The Eagles had their best team in all year and are much more chance of going back to back than GWS are even of making the grand final....!!!
 

eth-dog

Premium Gold
Jan 11, 2007
75,730
34,858
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
GWS better than how - us? - yes. GWS better than the Eagles? - totally disagree.
The Eagles had their best team in all year and are much more chance of going back to back than GWS are even of making the grand final....!!!
Apart from the fact that they're currently second on the ladder? Let's compare statistically:

Forward line:

Goals/inside 50: GWS 2nd, West Coast 3rd
Scores/inside 50: GWS 1st, West Coast 5th
Tackles inside 50: GWS 6th, West Coast 15th

Midfield:

Contested Possession differential: GWS 2nd, West Coast 15th
Clearance differential: GWS 5th, West Coast 8th

Defence:

Goals/inside 50: GWS 7th, West Coast 6th
Scores/inside 50: GWS 3rd, West Coast 7th

GWS are a better side so far this year. West Coast have been below the standard they were at last year and GWS have been above the standard they were last year. You're either severely overrating West Coast's year so far or severely underrating GWS's
 
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