eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: Lost to the reigning premiers by 6 goals, and were lucky it wasn't more with 14.22 by the Eagles. Cale Hooker was fantastic again, having 28 disposals and 15 marks playing in defence. Josh Begley was excellent too with 3 goals playing forward, whilst Zach Merrett and Dyson Heppell had 30 touches apiece in the middle.
GWS: The Giants had the bye but before it they defeated North Melbourne by 23 points, it was an even first half before they broke away with a 7 goal to 3 second half. Toby Greene was the pick of the forwards with 3 goals, whilst Josh Kelly had 35 disposals running through the middle, Tim Taranto also having 30.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 1-4 GWS
Form Guide
Essendon: 3W 2L
GWS: 4W 1L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $2.53
GWS: $1.48
Line: 10.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs GWS
B: Michael Hurley - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Jeremy Finlayson - Harrison Himmelberg - Sam Reid
HB: Conor McKenna - Patrick Ambrose - Mason Redman
HF: Brent Daniels - Jeremy Cameron - Toby Greene
C: Andrew McGrath - Dylan Clarke - Zach Merrett
C: Brett Deledio - Tim Taranto - Harry Perryman
HF: Josh Begley - Mitchell Brown - Orazio Fantasia
HB: Adam Kennedy - Sam Taylor - Jake Stein
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Shaun McKernan - Jayden Laverde
B: Zachary Williams - Phil Davis - Heath Shaw
R: Tom Bellchambers - Dylan Shiel - Dyson Heppell
R: Shane Mumford - Josh Kelly - Stephen Coniglio
I: Darcy Parish - Martin Gleeson - Kyle Langford - David Zaharakis
I: Jacob Hopper - Adam Tomlinson - Matthew Buntine - Isaac Cumming
Essendon in: Martin Gleeson; Out: Matthew Guelfi (inj)
GWS in: Isaac Cumming; Out: Matt De Boer (inj)
GWS defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.6% of the time it enters the 50. GWS are very strong at this end as well, conceding a goal 21.1% of the time it enters defensive 50, ranked 6th in this area. The Giants addition of Jake Stein into their defence will be important, his most likely match up is Shaun McKernan, who has only kicked 1 goal since returning from injury, which will allow captain Phil Davis to go to the dangerous Jake Stringer. Adam Kennedy has enjoyed a strong season, and will have a challenge with small forward Orazio Fantasia, who is arguably Essendon's most important player.
Midfield/rucks battle
Not a lot seperates the two teams in terms of clearance differential or contested possession differential, which indicates it will probably be a close game in tight, but the advantage for the Giants is that they're much stronger on the outside with the likes of Brett Deledio, Harry Perryman and Adam Tomlinson being classy outside midfielders compared to the out of form David Zaharakis and young gun Andrew McGrath. Dylan Clarke has quelled a couple of players this season, and will have a big job against Stephen Coniglio who has been stellar this season for the Giants, whilst Josh Kelly and Zach Merrett probably go head-to-head now that the Giants have lost tagger Matt de Boer for the next 8 weeks. In terms of the ruck battle, Shane Mumford has been solid this season, averaging 39 hit outs and 3 clearances a game, whilst Tom Bellchambers has the best hit out to advantage percentage of the regular rucks this year.
GWS forward line vs Essendon defence
The Giants are the second best side going inside 50 this season, kicking a goal 26.7% of the time it enters their forward 50. Essendon conced a goal 19.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. The Giants have found a player forward of centre with the addition of Jeremy Finlayson, the 196 cm former defender has 25 goals this season but will have a tough match up in Cale Hooker, whilst Jeremy Cameron has hit a form slump with only 2 goals in his past 2 games, and will be playing against the in-form Patrick Ambrose who has been excellent at shutting down the best opposition forward this season, whilst Adam Saad against Toby Greene promises to be a tantalising prospect.
X-Factor Player
Brent Daniels has snuck under the radar this season, but as a half forward he's had 15 goal assists this season, top 4 in the AFL so far, and will be key against Mason Redman this week.
Key stat
Essendon: Inside 50 conversion. GWS are great at choking teams, need to take their chances unlike in the first quarter in round 1.
GWS: Clearances. Must be strong around the ball, when they win the clearances they win most of the time.
Tip
GWS are much better, so the Giants by 33
Essendon: Lost to the reigning premiers by 6 goals, and were lucky it wasn't more with 14.22 by the Eagles. Cale Hooker was fantastic again, having 28 disposals and 15 marks playing in defence. Josh Begley was excellent too with 3 goals playing forward, whilst Zach Merrett and Dyson Heppell had 30 touches apiece in the middle.
GWS: The Giants had the bye but before it they defeated North Melbourne by 23 points, it was an even first half before they broke away with a 7 goal to 3 second half. Toby Greene was the pick of the forwards with 3 goals, whilst Josh Kelly had 35 disposals running through the middle, Tim Taranto also having 30.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 1-4 GWS
Form Guide
Essendon: 3W 2L
GWS: 4W 1L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $2.53
GWS: $1.48
Line: 10.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs GWS
B: Michael Hurley - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Jeremy Finlayson - Harrison Himmelberg - Sam Reid
HB: Conor McKenna - Patrick Ambrose - Mason Redman
HF: Brent Daniels - Jeremy Cameron - Toby Greene
C: Andrew McGrath - Dylan Clarke - Zach Merrett
C: Brett Deledio - Tim Taranto - Harry Perryman
HF: Josh Begley - Mitchell Brown - Orazio Fantasia
HB: Adam Kennedy - Sam Taylor - Jake Stein
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Shaun McKernan - Jayden Laverde
B: Zachary Williams - Phil Davis - Heath Shaw
R: Tom Bellchambers - Dylan Shiel - Dyson Heppell
R: Shane Mumford - Josh Kelly - Stephen Coniglio
I: Darcy Parish - Martin Gleeson - Kyle Langford - David Zaharakis
I: Jacob Hopper - Adam Tomlinson - Matthew Buntine - Isaac Cumming
Essendon in: Martin Gleeson; Out: Matthew Guelfi (inj)
GWS in: Isaac Cumming; Out: Matt De Boer (inj)
GWS defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.6% of the time it enters the 50. GWS are very strong at this end as well, conceding a goal 21.1% of the time it enters defensive 50, ranked 6th in this area. The Giants addition of Jake Stein into their defence will be important, his most likely match up is Shaun McKernan, who has only kicked 1 goal since returning from injury, which will allow captain Phil Davis to go to the dangerous Jake Stringer. Adam Kennedy has enjoyed a strong season, and will have a challenge with small forward Orazio Fantasia, who is arguably Essendon's most important player.
Midfield/rucks battle
Not a lot seperates the two teams in terms of clearance differential or contested possession differential, which indicates it will probably be a close game in tight, but the advantage for the Giants is that they're much stronger on the outside with the likes of Brett Deledio, Harry Perryman and Adam Tomlinson being classy outside midfielders compared to the out of form David Zaharakis and young gun Andrew McGrath. Dylan Clarke has quelled a couple of players this season, and will have a big job against Stephen Coniglio who has been stellar this season for the Giants, whilst Josh Kelly and Zach Merrett probably go head-to-head now that the Giants have lost tagger Matt de Boer for the next 8 weeks. In terms of the ruck battle, Shane Mumford has been solid this season, averaging 39 hit outs and 3 clearances a game, whilst Tom Bellchambers has the best hit out to advantage percentage of the regular rucks this year.
GWS forward line vs Essendon defence
The Giants are the second best side going inside 50 this season, kicking a goal 26.7% of the time it enters their forward 50. Essendon conced a goal 19.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. The Giants have found a player forward of centre with the addition of Jeremy Finlayson, the 196 cm former defender has 25 goals this season but will have a tough match up in Cale Hooker, whilst Jeremy Cameron has hit a form slump with only 2 goals in his past 2 games, and will be playing against the in-form Patrick Ambrose who has been excellent at shutting down the best opposition forward this season, whilst Adam Saad against Toby Greene promises to be a tantalising prospect.
X-Factor Player
Brent Daniels has snuck under the radar this season, but as a half forward he's had 15 goal assists this season, top 4 in the AFL so far, and will be key against Mason Redman this week.
Key stat
Essendon: Inside 50 conversion. GWS are great at choking teams, need to take their chances unlike in the first quarter in round 1.
GWS: Clearances. Must be strong around the ball, when they win the clearances they win most of the time.
Tip
GWS are much better, so the Giants by 33
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