Preview Essendon vs Hawthorne, Docklands, Friday 14/06/19, 7:50 PM

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eth-dog

Premium Gold
Jan 11, 2007
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Observations

Essendon: Essendon seemed to arrest a form slump against arch-rival Carlton, winning a game in the wet for the first time in a long time it seemed for the Bomber faithful. Dyson Heppell and Darcy Parish were excellent in the midfield, having 67 disposals and 17 clearances between them whilst second gamer Dylan Clarke had 23 disposals whilst keeping superstar Patrick Cripps to just 11.

Hawthorne: Hawthorne kicked 5 goals to none in the first quarter, but from then on it was all Brisbane, kicking 12 goals to 5 for the rest of the game. James Worpel was good in the middle for the Hawkes, collecting 25 disposals whilst Mitchell Lewis was the only multiple goal scorer for Hawthorne with 2.

Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 1-4 Hawthorne

Form Guide

Essendon: 2W 3L
Hawthorne: 2W 3L

Sportsbet odds

Essendon: $1.80
Hawthorne: $2.00
Line: 2.5 ($1.90)

Possible sides

Essendon vs Hawthorne

B: Ambrose - Hooker - Saad
F: Gunston - Ceglar - Breust
HB: McKenna - Hurley- Redman
HF: Impey - Lewis - Puopolo
C: McGrath - D Clarke - Z Merrett
C: Scully - Shiels - Henderson
HF: Begley - Stringer - Laverde
HB: Burgoyne - O'Brien - Hardwick
F: McDonald-Tipungwuti - McKernan - Fantasia
B: Stratton - Frawley - Mirra
R: Bellchambers - Shiel - Heppell
R: Pittonet - Worpel - O'Meara
I: Parish - Guelfi - Langford - Zaharakis
I: Glass - Smith - Cousins - Morrison

Essendon in: Fantasia, Shiel, Stringer; Out: Baguley, McNiece, Francis
Hawthorne in: Mirra, Morrison; Out: Wingard (inj), Sicily (inj)


Hawthorne defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.0% of the time it enters the 50. Hawthorne concede a goal 20.9% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranked at 7th for this particular statistic so far this season. The main battle at this end of the ground will be between Shaun McKernan and James Frawley, Essendon's only tall forward hasn't kicked a goal since returning and will be keen to fix that here. Essendon will be welcoming back Orazio Fantasia to the mix, who will enjoy Blake Hardwick for company this particular game, and enjoys playing Hawthorne with 5 goals in his past two games against them (as well as 27 disposals in the other game), whilst Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will try to get on top of Irishman Conor Glass.

Midfield/rucks battle

This is the big area of the ground for each side respectively. Essendon are ranked second in clarance differential so far this season whilst Hawthorne are ranked dead last, and Essendon are much stronger in contested situations around the ground too, ranked 7th in contested possession differential, Hawthorne only 16th in this particular statistic. The big battle will come between Jaeger O'Meara, who is comfortably Hawthorne's best midfielder, and Dylan Clarke, who has been brought in as a tagger that shut down Patrick Cripps on the weekend. Essendon will be hoping their "big 3" mids of Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and Dylan Shiel are able to get on top of the other Hawke midfielders, the three all averagin upwards of 4.5 clearances a game. Rucks wise, Tom Bellchambers looks to be the strongest of the rucks but Marc Pittonet and Jonathon Ceglar will be hoping to take advantage when Shaun McKernan is in there instead.

Hawthorne forward line vs Essendon defence

Hawthorne average a goal 22.4% of the time it enters their forward 50, which has them ranked at 8th in terms of overall goals/inside 50. Essendon conced a goal 19.6% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. The Hawkes have struggled inside 50 apart from Luke Breust and Jack Gunston, with no other player hitting double figures heading into their bye, the pair likely to be marked by Adam Saad and Paddy Ambrose, two players having good seasons themselves, likely to be top 5 in the BnF so far this season. Mitchell Lewis is a young talent, but he'll have a tough job against gun key defender Michael Hurley deep inside 50.

X-Factor Player

Jayden Laverde has enjoyed his return to football the past 2 weeks, and has kicked 3 goals in his games so far, look for him to go head to head with Tim O'Brien and try to beat him.

Key stat

Essendon: Clearances. Hawthorne suck at these, so the Dons need to take advantage and start dominating them.

Hawthorne: Inside 50 conversion. Gunston and Breust have been excellent this year but Ambrose and Saad will be very tough opponents, the others need to step up.

Tip

**** Hawthorne, Dons by 22
 
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calyam

Norm Smith Medallist
May 9, 2011
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14th June - I believe.

Really important game. Not just a hated rival but also a team that is in a similar position on the ladder.

We haven't been good this year but we are still only a game outside the eight and there are some teams in that eight that I don't rate particularly highly. The break comes at a good time with the likes of Shiel and Stringer injured and hopefully gives them a chance to get back in time. Nice if Fantasia could make it back too!

Ins: Stringer, Shiel, Fantasia
Outs: Begley, Baguley, McNiece
 

Macca18

EFC
Jul 6, 2009
4,491
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This will be a very big game. They all seem to be lately but this one is a special.

Home game on a Friday night at Marvel against a hated rival... both teams on the same win/loss, similar percentage (we are ahead by 1%), both a bit hot & cold and both coming off a week off.

Genuine toss of a coin game (particularly with the Clarkson factor and Hawks coming off a loss) but I think the game being at Marvel *slightly* suits us.

3 of the last 4 Friday Night games at “Docklands” against the Hawks we’ve lost by margins of 108, 56 & 94 ... hardly inspiring much confidence. The other one was Cyril Rioli snatching the game off us in the last thirty seconds (2014). We owe them.
 

Gabe251

Debutant
Mar 18, 2019
106
80
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Essendon
Hawks are completely up and down at the moment. Who knows what type of football they will produce? I'd love to swap coaches though.
 

JDavey

Premiership Player
Feb 2, 2011
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14th June - I believe.

Really important game. Not just a hated rival but also a team that is in a similar position on the ladder.

We haven't been good this year but we are still only a game outside the eight and there are some teams in that eight that I don't rate particularly highly. The break comes at a good time with the likes of Shiel and Stringer injured and hopefully gives them a chance to get back in time. Nice if Fantasia could make it back too!

Ins: Stringer, Shiel, Fantasia
Outs: Begley, Baguley, McNiece
These are my preferred changes too!
 

eDPS

Devon Goods
Nov 4, 2010
17,401
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Woosha expects all 3 of Shiel, Fanta and Stringer to be back so my changes are

Ins Shiel, Stringer, Fanta
Out Zaharakis, Begley, Baguley

What I expect the outs to be
Francis, Begley, Baguley/Laverde
 

_Swoon

Premium Platinum
Oct 12, 2015
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live at the Greek
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Francis was quiet and Begley was a bit sloppy but they both did their roles just fine today, I'd be leaving the forward line exactly as it is so hopefully it starts to gel. I don't understand why Mozzie is in the conversation at all tbh (or why Woosha was acting like he was a chance to Ch. 7), from what I've seen of him this year he's still very green.
 

TheWeapon

Club Legend
May 20, 2012
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If fully fit
Fantasia in for Baguley
Stringer in for McKernan
Shiel in for no idea, maybe Langford or Zaharakis
Think McNeice stays in as Hawthorn has lots of quick small forwards
 
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