eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: Essendon seemed to arrest a form slump against arch-rival Carlton, winning a game in the wet for the first time in a long time it seemed for the Bomber faithful. Dyson Heppell and Darcy Parish were excellent in the midfield, having 67 disposals and 17 clearances between them whilst second gamer Dylan Clarke had 23 disposals whilst keeping superstar Patrick Cripps to just 11.
Hawthorne: Hawthorne kicked 5 goals to none in the first quarter, but from then on it was all Brisbane, kicking 12 goals to 5 for the rest of the game. James Worpel was good in the middle for the Hawkes, collecting 25 disposals whilst Mitchell Lewis was the only multiple goal scorer for Hawthorne with 2.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 1-4 Hawthorne
Form Guide
Essendon: 2W 3L
Hawthorne: 2W 3L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $1.80
Hawthorne: $2.00
Line: 2.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Hawthorne
B: Ambrose - Hooker - Saad
F: Gunston - Ceglar - Breust
HB: McKenna - Hurley- Redman
HF: Impey - Lewis - Puopolo
C: McGrath - D Clarke - Z Merrett
C: Scully - Shiels - Henderson
HF: Begley - Stringer - Laverde
HB: Burgoyne - O'Brien - Hardwick
F: McDonald-Tipungwuti - McKernan - Fantasia
B: Stratton - Frawley - Mirra
R: Bellchambers - Shiel - Heppell
R: Pittonet - Worpel - O'Meara
I: Parish - Guelfi - Langford - Zaharakis
I: Glass - Smith - Cousins - Morrison
Essendon in: Fantasia, Shiel, Stringer; Out: Baguley, McNiece, Francis
Hawthorne in: Mirra, Morrison; Out: Wingard (inj), Sicily (inj)
Hawthorne defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.0% of the time it enters the 50. Hawthorne concede a goal 20.9% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranked at 7th for this particular statistic so far this season. The main battle at this end of the ground will be between Shaun McKernan and James Frawley, Essendon's only tall forward hasn't kicked a goal since returning and will be keen to fix that here. Essendon will be welcoming back Orazio Fantasia to the mix, who will enjoy Blake Hardwick for company this particular game, and enjoys playing Hawthorne with 5 goals in his past two games against them (as well as 27 disposals in the other game), whilst Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will try to get on top of Irishman Conor Glass.
Midfield/rucks battle
This is the big area of the ground for each side respectively. Essendon are ranked second in clarance differential so far this season whilst Hawthorne are ranked dead last, and Essendon are much stronger in contested situations around the ground too, ranked 7th in contested possession differential, Hawthorne only 16th in this particular statistic. The big battle will come between Jaeger O'Meara, who is comfortably Hawthorne's best midfielder, and Dylan Clarke, who has been brought in as a tagger that shut down Patrick Cripps on the weekend. Essendon will be hoping their "big 3" mids of Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and Dylan Shiel are able to get on top of the other Hawke midfielders, the three all averagin upwards of 4.5 clearances a game. Rucks wise, Tom Bellchambers looks to be the strongest of the rucks but Marc Pittonet and Jonathon Ceglar will be hoping to take advantage when Shaun McKernan is in there instead.
Hawthorne forward line vs Essendon defence
Hawthorne average a goal 22.4% of the time it enters their forward 50, which has them ranked at 8th in terms of overall goals/inside 50. Essendon conced a goal 19.6% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. The Hawkes have struggled inside 50 apart from Luke Breust and Jack Gunston, with no other player hitting double figures heading into their bye, the pair likely to be marked by Adam Saad and Paddy Ambrose, two players having good seasons themselves, likely to be top 5 in the BnF so far this season. Mitchell Lewis is a young talent, but he'll have a tough job against gun key defender Michael Hurley deep inside 50.
X-Factor Player
Jayden Laverde has enjoyed his return to football the past 2 weeks, and has kicked 3 goals in his games so far, look for him to go head to head with Tim O'Brien and try to beat him.
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. Hawthorne suck at these, so the Dons need to take advantage and start dominating them.
Hawthorne: Inside 50 conversion. Gunston and Breust have been excellent this year but Ambrose and Saad will be very tough opponents, the others need to step up.
Tip
* Hawthorne, Dons by 22
Essendon: Essendon seemed to arrest a form slump against arch-rival Carlton, winning a game in the wet for the first time in a long time it seemed for the Bomber faithful. Dyson Heppell and Darcy Parish were excellent in the midfield, having 67 disposals and 17 clearances between them whilst second gamer Dylan Clarke had 23 disposals whilst keeping superstar Patrick Cripps to just 11.
Hawthorne: Hawthorne kicked 5 goals to none in the first quarter, but from then on it was all Brisbane, kicking 12 goals to 5 for the rest of the game. James Worpel was good in the middle for the Hawkes, collecting 25 disposals whilst Mitchell Lewis was the only multiple goal scorer for Hawthorne with 2.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 1-4 Hawthorne
Form Guide
Essendon: 2W 3L
Hawthorne: 2W 3L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $1.80
Hawthorne: $2.00
Line: 2.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Hawthorne
B: Ambrose - Hooker - Saad
F: Gunston - Ceglar - Breust
HB: McKenna - Hurley- Redman
HF: Impey - Lewis - Puopolo
C: McGrath - D Clarke - Z Merrett
C: Scully - Shiels - Henderson
HF: Begley - Stringer - Laverde
HB: Burgoyne - O'Brien - Hardwick
F: McDonald-Tipungwuti - McKernan - Fantasia
B: Stratton - Frawley - Mirra
R: Bellchambers - Shiel - Heppell
R: Pittonet - Worpel - O'Meara
I: Parish - Guelfi - Langford - Zaharakis
I: Glass - Smith - Cousins - Morrison
Essendon in: Fantasia, Shiel, Stringer; Out: Baguley, McNiece, Francis
Hawthorne in: Mirra, Morrison; Out: Wingard (inj), Sicily (inj)
Hawthorne defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.0% of the time it enters the 50. Hawthorne concede a goal 20.9% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranked at 7th for this particular statistic so far this season. The main battle at this end of the ground will be between Shaun McKernan and James Frawley, Essendon's only tall forward hasn't kicked a goal since returning and will be keen to fix that here. Essendon will be welcoming back Orazio Fantasia to the mix, who will enjoy Blake Hardwick for company this particular game, and enjoys playing Hawthorne with 5 goals in his past two games against them (as well as 27 disposals in the other game), whilst Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will try to get on top of Irishman Conor Glass.
Midfield/rucks battle
This is the big area of the ground for each side respectively. Essendon are ranked second in clarance differential so far this season whilst Hawthorne are ranked dead last, and Essendon are much stronger in contested situations around the ground too, ranked 7th in contested possession differential, Hawthorne only 16th in this particular statistic. The big battle will come between Jaeger O'Meara, who is comfortably Hawthorne's best midfielder, and Dylan Clarke, who has been brought in as a tagger that shut down Patrick Cripps on the weekend. Essendon will be hoping their "big 3" mids of Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and Dylan Shiel are able to get on top of the other Hawke midfielders, the three all averagin upwards of 4.5 clearances a game. Rucks wise, Tom Bellchambers looks to be the strongest of the rucks but Marc Pittonet and Jonathon Ceglar will be hoping to take advantage when Shaun McKernan is in there instead.
Hawthorne forward line vs Essendon defence
Hawthorne average a goal 22.4% of the time it enters their forward 50, which has them ranked at 8th in terms of overall goals/inside 50. Essendon conced a goal 19.6% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. The Hawkes have struggled inside 50 apart from Luke Breust and Jack Gunston, with no other player hitting double figures heading into their bye, the pair likely to be marked by Adam Saad and Paddy Ambrose, two players having good seasons themselves, likely to be top 5 in the BnF so far this season. Mitchell Lewis is a young talent, but he'll have a tough job against gun key defender Michael Hurley deep inside 50.
X-Factor Player
Jayden Laverde has enjoyed his return to football the past 2 weeks, and has kicked 3 goals in his games so far, look for him to go head to head with Tim O'Brien and try to beat him.
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. Hawthorne suck at these, so the Dons need to take advantage and start dominating them.
Hawthorne: Inside 50 conversion. Gunston and Breust have been excellent this year but Ambrose and Saad will be very tough opponents, the others need to step up.
Tip
* Hawthorne, Dons by 22
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