Preview Essendon vs Melbourne

[Donakebab]

Meh, 2>3>1 anyway.

 

[yaco55]

Doubt that Scully will play after half a game for Casey.

 

[bing181]

Doubt that Scully will play after half a game for Casey.

We'll take whatever we can get at the moment.

Conjecture that Gawn will come in to help out in the ruck.

As you were ...

 

[Slattery_20]

If we are at all serious, this must be a 6 goal win. Anything else = we're havin a larf.
All the danger signs are for the Dees - rested opponent, injuries, key players down on form, lots of guys debuting before they'd like.

 

[Vass38]

If we are at all serious, this must be a 6 goal win. Anything else = we're havin a larf.
All the danger signs are for the Dees - rested opponent, injuries, key players down on form, lots of guys debuting before they'd like.

Agree with this. What Im interested in is how we will line up.
Ive had a go at a team Id like to see with 8 on the bench - hopefully Hurley & Watson are right as they are both super important to us;-


Fletch Hooker H.Slat

Hardingham Myers McVeigh

Heppell Lonergan Melksham

Zaka Hille Jetta

Monfries Hurley Crameri


T.Bell Watson Howlett


Bench from: NLM Ryder Stanton Hibberd
Davey Reimers Colyer Prismall

Im going to this one and hope we smash them by 10 goals....

 

[Slattery_20]

Watson had a 3-4 week hammie. Maybe right for Freo.

Melksham needs to spark up. Hurley huge in.

 

[daffo]

Needs Watson and Hocking back.

 

[fishardansin]

It will be the battle of the medical rooms. Perhaps Essendon, Melbourne and Freo should merge, just for this year. That way they'll be able to make a full list.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Just crunch the bejesus out of them and they'll fold.

Anything less than total and utter destruction will be unacceptable. I need to drink the Dees' tears of sorrow first-hand.

I'm actually hoping that Watson doesn't come back this week... it's essential that the team know how to win, and win well, without him. Let him return against the severely under-manned Dockers.

The players have been craving the rest, so here's hoping that we're at the time of year where the bye hoodoo goes out the door.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Good week for a debutante.

In: Browne, Prismall
Out: Davey, Reimers

 

[Demon 86]

Melbourne have poor form coming in, their forwards being non-existant, Jurrah and Watts disappointing, even though one Melbourne supporter once told me they were "Sure fire superstars". Their midfield have done nothing since the loss of Jamar, as shown by the demolishment by Judd, Murphy and Gibbs last week with their #1 midfielder Brent Moloney having no effect. Admittedly the loss of Trengove, Scully and Bartram are three crucial players to their rotations out of the side. Their defence has been hopeless, one Frawley injury would mean that their defence, quite frankly, would fall apart. They've had no drive, no stability and no support. They have young talent, but the problem is that it's young.

Essendon have been solid all over the park. Hooker, Myers and Fletcher have all been great in defence. Fletcher lost to Vickery last week; but has been solid every other week. Hardingham, Heppell, Hibberd and Slattery have all rotated through their defence and been great. Their midfield has been great, Lonergan, Howlett, Watson and McVeigh have all been prominent in the clearances. Bellchambers has been a real dominant ruckman, and the outside work of Melksham, Jetta, Heppell and Stanton has been solid to component the inside work. The forward line has played solidly, without being spectacular, and the leading goal scorer a surprise Stewart Crameri, rookie-listed this year. Zaharakis, Hurley and Jetta have all improved this season and been prominent.

Key Match-Ups:

James Frawley vs Michael Hurley:
Frawley is their best defender. He has to keep Hurley to less than 2 goals for Melbourne to even compete IMO. Anything more and we could see a cricket score. Hurley just needs to take Frawley out of the game, allow to release Crameri, Hille and co. because their defence won't stand a chance otherwise.

Stefan Martin vs Tom Bellchambers:
Bellchambers has been dominant for a couple games this season, Martin is really only a part-time ruckman, mostly a forward. Bellchambers has been improving around the ground, so I really can't see them beating him, I have a feeling that this'll be another game where Bellchambers gets more hit outs than Melbourne by himself.

Brent Moloney vs Jobe Watson:
Watson and Moloney are the best midfielders for each side. Watson is arguably the best clearance mid, whereas Moloney has no support, like Watson 2 years ago. Moloney will have to be awesome for Melbourne to be competitive.

Overall I see Essendon being too good all over the park. Frawley, Moloney and Green are all quality players, but their talent is spread thin, and their best footy has been few and far between, with their best and worst miles apart. I honestly can't see them making a serious challenge with a team that has their talent well spread across the park. I'm going to say Essendon by 60 points

Not a bad summation mate, I'll just put a little Melbourne perspective to it if you don't mind.

Forwards
Watts was not amazing on Friday night in tough conditions for big guys, but he was far from our worst with 20 touches. His last 5 games he's avaeraged about 20 touches, 5 marks and a goal which isn't too bad. Jurrah was disapointing however- showing some lazy traits atm and rumours of him carrying a knock don't excuse his lack of chase & hard work.

Frawley v Hurley
Probably spot on with Frawley v Hurley, though I wouldn't be surprised to see us try someone else intially and hope that Hurley can be held whilst Frawley provides run out of defence.


Rucks
Martin may be a part time ruckman, but he has been one of our few shining lights this season. Since Jamar went down he has had 21, 36 & 40 hitouts each game (albeit against Goldstein, Kosi & Hampson), whilst averaging about 17 touches. This will be his biggest test this week, as your ruck division (when Ryder is in form) is arguably the best in the comp behind maybe West Coast only. Expect to see Max Gawn debut this week to help out, exciting fella who this Saturday beat Ben Hudson all over the ground in the VFL. I expect Essendon to beat us in the ruck due to more overall quality, but it might be a little closer than you think.

Moloney v Watson
Beamer has suffered without Jamar. He has been shouldering the load of the clearances for the most part, and can't keep doing it. A few in's this week should help him a little, but Jobe (if he is right to play) is in Brownlow medal form and won't be stopped no matter what Melbourne try. All we can do is hope he's a little rusty after a couple of weeks off!

Melbourne should welcome back a couple of players which is handy, but it won't be enough, Bombers by 37 for me.

IN: Trengove, Scully, Dunn, Gawn (debut), Mcdonald (debut)

OUT: Newton, Warnock, Morton, Bennell, Bate

 

[Eleven 38]

Away games we play at Etihad are not fully ticketed by default. They may be upgraded to a premium reserve or fully ticketed match if demand says so. Essendon home games are fully ticketed regardless. This really annoys me as people are forced to sit on level 3 to find many empty seats on level 1.

Would love to be able to just scan my membership and sit anywhere.

i read somewhere the MCG games arent ticketed except for Anzac day so this week isnt ticketed nor will the Carlton or Richmond games...

 

[fishardansin]

Thanks for you insight Demon 86. However, you and eth-dog shouldn't be so sure that they'll be the match ups. There is massive doubt that Hurley or Watson will play. What will be the key match ups then? Also in this day and age there is only every a few match ups on the ground. Perhaps 3 at each and the ruckmen seeing who can influence the stoppages the most. The ruck contests usually even out though and any other work around the ground isn't one on one.

I expect Melbourne to try to match it with Essendon at the clearances. If they can match it with Watson out they could very well win this game because the quality of our clearances will be down, without Watson. That said if Essendon can improve their efficiency from their last game, Richmond, they should win anyhow. Melbourne can make this difficult if they pressure the ball carrier. Also Essendon needs to close down that hole in the zone around CHF. Melbourne have plenty of guys who can move the ball quickly and if Jurrah gets the ball over the back with room to move he'll kill anyone from Essendon who is tall enough to go with him. It is a pity that Fletch has the sore knee as he'd normally kill Jurrah but I'm guessing wont be able to go with him if he is as restricted as he's been over the last few games.

In summary. The game is there to win for Essendon. If they improve efficiency, especially forward of center, and our forwards start marking the ball it will be a decisive victory no matter what Melbourne does.

If Essendon is sloppy with the ball and static up forward Melbourne is good enough to take advantage of that and get an unlikely victory.

I'm guessing that Essendon will get the job done. With the game against Freo coming after this one I'm sure our super coaches have told the boys that a loss tonight will see us probably come out of 4 weeks of football with 3 losses and the bye. That could stall all momentum the bombers built up early in the season. Expect the boys to be fired up and ready to give it their all.

If Melbourne sag back against the bombers, like they did against Carlton, it will be suicide and Bailey should be sacked in the change rooms after the game. We will just lock it in and happily play the whole game in our F50 even if we're only scoring once out of 4 F50 entries. They have to roll the dice by attacking the ball and man, playing on at every opportunity, kicking long and locking it into their F50.

Essendon by 30+

 

[Demon 86]

Interesting fishardansin- I knew there was doubt on Watson but though Hurley was a lock to play...

Our clearance rate has been ok even with Jamar down, but as you mentioned the quality of the clearances are crucial and that's where Jamars loss hurts the most. There's very few quality clearances by the red and blue without him.

Melbourne can currently be exploited by small-medium forwards due to the losses of Garland, Bartram and Tapscott, so for me the key matchups are the ones eth-dog mentioned (should they eventuate), and Crameri, Monfries and Zaharakis (though I think he's been up the ground a bit) v Bennell, MacDonald and Nicholson/Morton.

Should one of those match-ups occur, I see trouble for the Dees. For punters, I would get on one of those three for most goals.

 

[fishardansin]

Interesting you should say that as for the last month or so our goals have mainly come from Zaka, Monfries, Reimers and Crameri.

Do you have enough tall defenders that could man up on our rucks when they play forward? The reason I ask is that our forward line has been pretty ordinary around half forward the last two weeks as Crameri has been well held (despite a few goals in junk time against Brisbane). Frawley would be a great much up against him and extra tall guys would free him up for this.

 

[Demon 86]

It will be a stretch. We have Frawley, Rivers and Warnock/McDonald (Warnock is a big chance to be dropped after a disasterous performance Friday night, and McDonald is a big back/fwd in line for debut according to Bailey).

If Gawn comes in then Stef Martin could also push back to help out at times. I would be much more comfortable if Garland was in seeing as he can play tall, medium or small, but I think we have enough to do a job on the resting ruckman.

From a Melbourne pov the form of Zaka and co is very concerning, and will be crucial to you kicking a winning score.

 

[coleman10]

I'm not so sure it will be the whitewash most are expecting. There are some major factors at play here:

1) The bye. Teams coming off the bye have generally struggled the next week.

2) Melbourne's poor form of late. Isn't everyone a little worried by the fact that over recent years, it seems as if all of the "strugglers" have lifted and got seasons back on track against us? We seem to be the side that can give those struggling teams a bit of confidence.

3) IT'S OUTDOORS!!!!!!!!! We just seem to have become a basketball team. And until we can win without a roof over our heads, we will find it hard to be a top 4 side. For some reason, we just don't play well at the Home of Football (or any outdoor venue for that matter).

Thankfully, Melbourne's injury list is of far greater consequence than ours and that we have a little more depth than they do.

I am tipping us to win a close one, but as Port Adelaide proved on Saturday, anything is possible. I am by no means confident.

 

[Kong]

Not confident with our injury list, just as I wasn't against Richmond.

We're better team and should win comfortably all things being equal, but it was the same case with Richmond.

 

[Demon 86]

Not confident with our injury list, just as I wasn't against Richmond.

We're better team and should win comfortably all things being equal, but it was the same case with Richmond.

Disagree with this.

Best 22 vs best 22 would be an extremely close match.

We beat you pretty easily last year with both sides being close(ish) to full strength, albeit with your side hampered by terrible coaching and a lack of confidence.

I think our best 22's are a lot closer than a lot of you guys might think...

 

[richskee]

Hi guys, what's the go with Prismall? Surprised he has only played the 1 game. Could he get the call up this week and if so do you think he'll be the sub?

Always rated the guy and looking at his recent form in the magoo's I'm a little puzzled when players like Alwyn Davey get the call up.

 

[Slattery_20]

Disagree with this.

Best 22 vs best 22 would be an extremely close match.

We beat you pretty easily last year with both sides being close(ish) to full strength, albeit with your side hampered by terrible coaching and a lack of confidence.

I think our best 22's are a lot closer than a lot of you guys might think...

Last time we played you, no Gumbie, Pears, Fletch, Slatts, Hille and (arguable) Melksham. Half a spine down.

Side-track rant - "Best 22" is probably second only to "youngest" in the hotly contested competition for 'most popular, least relevant thread topics'
There is, on average, going to be 3-4 missing every week for every side, so why is so much effort taken on arguing who exactly makes it in vs who is 23rd man, compared to the the real-world scenario: depth through every position?

 

[Kong]

Disagree with this.

Best 22 vs best 22 would be an extremely close match.

We beat you pretty easily last year with both sides being close(ish) to full strength, albeit with your side hampered by terrible coaching and a lack of confidence.

I think our best 22's are a lot closer than a lot of you guys might think...

Perhaps you're right; I wouldn't judge us on last year due to various reasons, so perhaps it's unfair to judge you guys for pretty similar reasons this year.

 

[Demon 86]

Last time we played you, no Gumbie, Pears, Fletch, Slatts, Hille and (arguable) Melksham. Half a spine down.

Side-track rant - "Best 22" is probably second only to "youngest" in the hotly contested competition for 'most popular, least relevant thread topics'
There is, on average, going to be 3-4 missing every week for every side, so why is so much effort taken on arguing who exactly makes it in vs who is 23rd man, compared to the the real-world scenario: depth through every position?

Mate - as I said both teams were only close(ish) to full strength last encounter (though we were closer)- Fletcher was a big loss for you. Scoreboard flattered the Dons however.

Best 22 is a figure of speech in many ways. You don't take as much out of a win when you beat a team that is severely depleted. If Freo were full strength (or close too) and lost to the Saints like they did on the weekend many more alarm bells would sound. However you don't panic as much when you know there's a plethora of quality players to return.

Of course no team will ever be full strength, but there's a difference between missing 2-3 of your normal starters to 10-15 of them.

Perhaps you're right; I wouldn't judge us on last year due to various reasons, so perhaps it's unfair to judge you guys for pretty similar reasons this year.

Absolutely right- I think the truth between as to where both sides are really at head to head lies somewhere in between last years form and this years. By that I mean you guys were well down on what you were capable of last year, and I think we are in the same boat this year. Hope that makes sense?

In any case 2010 was an abberration for Essendon, the fools who wrote them off will be eating their words come seasons end. I'm just hoping that Melbourne are in the same boat, and that we become the 'Essendon' of 2012. Only time will tell...

 

[Slattery_20]

In any case 2010 was an abberration for Essendon, the fools who wrote them off will be eating their words come seasons end.

Judging from your 'AFL predictions thread', which had us 13th....
http://bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=791322
Eat up, fool


Not to mention this gold:
http://bigfooty.com/forum/showpost.php?p=20257877&postcount=3
When it was actually Melbourne who were a) scheduled to wear their away strip since b) there is no home/away in NAB semi-finals and c) they couldn't manage to get it printed right, hence the late change of plans.
Obviously Essendon's fault for merely doing as they were asked & not pre-empting Melbourne's incompetence.

When you assume...

 

[efcboy]

i'd say melbourne might be interviewing for a new coach within a fortnight