Preview Essendon vs Port Adelaide, Docklands, Saturday 10/06/17 @ 7:25 PM

[eth-dog]

Observations

Essendon:

Port Adelaide: Had a very good win against Hawthorn, winning the game by 51 points in the end with a very impressive display of football. Brad Ebert was prominent with 34 disposals and a whopping 12 tackles in the midfield whilst Charlie Dixon kicked 4 goals in an utterly dominant display of contested marking, clunking 5 of them.

Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 3-2 Port Adelaide

Form Guide

Essendon: 2W, 2L
Port Adelaide: 3W, 2L

Sportsbet odds

Essendon: $2.80
Port Adelaide: $1.44
Line: 14.5 ($1.92)

Possible sides

Essendon vs Port Adelaide

B: Baguley - Hartley - Gleeson
F: S Gray - Dixon - Trengove
HB: McKenna- Hurley - McGrath
HF: Impey - Westhoff - R Gray
C: Zaharakis - Myers - Z Merrett
C: Ebert - Wines - Polec
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Langford
HB: Pittard - Jonas - Hartlett
F: Fantasia - Stewart - Hooker
B: Hombsch - Clurey - Byrne-Jones
R: Bellchambers - Goddard - Heppell
R: Ryder - Powell-Pepper - Boak
I: Colyer - Watson - Howlett - Green
I: Broadbent - Young - Monfries - Ah Chee

Port Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon's forward line has been pretty good this year, kicking a goal 29% of the time it enters forward 50. Port have had the second best defence in the league so far this season, conceding a goal only 22% of the time it enters their defensive zone. Joe Daniher has been in great form so far this season averaging 3 goals a game so far this year and he'll be the main man for the Power to stop, with young Tom Clurey likely to get the job on the big man, who has had a quietly impressive so far this season. The other important match-up for the Power will be how they cover impressive small forward trio, Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Josh Green, Darcy Byrne-Jones likely to take the other hyphen, Jasper Pittard, Hamish Hartlett and Matthew Broadbent will rotate on those players as well. Look for the dangerous deep marking Cale Hooker to take Jack Hombsch out of the game.

Midfield/rucks battle

Essendon's midfield struggles have been well documented on this website but they're improving on the inside, they were bottom 4 contested possession differential earlier this season but now they're up to 12th, but are still struggling at the stoppage, being 17th overall in that measure. Port have been excellent through the midfield so far, being 4th and 6th in those statistical measures so far this season. This has been lead by Ollie Wines and Brad Ebert, the pair averaging 25 contested possessions and 11 clearances between them, with former Don Paddy Ryder, Sam Powell-Pepper, Brendan Ah Chee and Travis Boak all being able support crew in this regard. For the Dons, Dyson Heppell, Jobe Watson, Brendan Goddard and Zach Merrett have really been the main men on the inside, whilst Merrett and Zaharakis have been great on the outside of recent weeks as well. Paddy Ryder and Tom Bellchambers were great friends whilst the latter was at Essendon and now they will play against each other for the first time and it'll be interesting to see how Bellchambers plays it, as Ryder has been in excellent form this season

Port Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence

Essendon's defence started off the season excellently, but it's slipped to mid table recently, conceding a goal 24% of the time it enters defensive 50. Port have been bang on the AFL average so far this season, kicking a goal 25% of the time it enters their forward zone. Port's forward line really have been a 1-2 punch with Robbie Gray and Charlie Dixon having nearly 50 goals between them, but it really falls away from there. Michael Hartley will probably take the latter, who he broke even with last year but has been disappointing so far this season, but he's started to turn things around recently. Gray will likely be manned by Mark Baguley who started slowly but has warmed well into the season, and will come up against arguably his toughest opponent since Eddie Betts a few weeks ago. Look for Michael Hurley to take a resting ruck and zone off them to help those two out as much as possible.

X-Factor Player

Angus Monfries is the only player banned over the supplements saga who hasn't played a senior game yet, but who better to come back against than your old side? Monfries has a habit of stepping up in games like these as well, let's see how he goes.

Key stat

Essendon: Clearances. Port are so good at scoring from the stoppage that they nee to be defensively accountable this match at the stoppage.

Port Adelaide: Defensive conversion. Essendon's forward line has been fantastic and a real test for the Power who need to win this area.

Tip

Port have been playing high quality football all year, especially in the middle. I can't see Essendon locking that down to stop them, Port by 25

 

[sin411]

Fist....uh...Flirts....hmmm First?

 

[Bombers36]

Its going to be tough to stop the likes of Robbie Gray, Dixon, Wingard & our old fave Paddy Ryder. but at least its in Melbourne and we are in decent enough form to be an outside chance in this game. It would be great to get a win, but I think we need to make 3 or 4 changes. I'd have;-

OUT: Myers, Howlett, Stanton, Stewart
IN: Kelly, Bird, Parish, Langford

Goddard Hurley Baguley
Gleeson Hartley McKenna
Zakka Watson McGrath
Parish Hooker Fantasia
Green Daniher Walla

Bellcho Heppell Z.Merrett

Bench from: Kelly Bird Langford Colyer

 

[ant555]

Doubt Parish will be back. Calf injury.

 

[BomberTime]

Baguley Hartley Gleeson
McKenna Hurley McGrath
Zaharakis Heppell Goddard
Fantasia Daniher Langford
Stewart Hooker Walla
T- Bell Z Merrett Watson
Kelly Colyer Myers Green

 

[ScrappyCoCo]

Ebert is one that we need to pin down. Been in ripping form.

 

[blitzer]

I think Port are a pretty good team this year and I'm predicting a close game.
Their defense is really solid. It doesn't have any massive names back there but as a unit I think its really good and we will need good service in order to break through.

The midfield battle should be interesting. I'd say they have better inside midfielders but I reckon we might be better on the outside.

In terms of our defensive matchups I think we should be able to handle Dixon OK with Hartley going well on Patton yesterday but Robbie Gray is a tricky matchup. I think he's too good in the air to play Baguley on him personally. I would go with Gleeson or Dea. I like Gleeson out of the matchups the most because Gray is excellent at engaging in wrestling at just the right moment and pushing off - but I feel like Gleeson won't get sucked in as much and will just focus on the ball and he really is an excellent overhead mark.
If Wingard is back from his injury then I'd be happy to play McGrath on him. Hurley will play on Westhoff and look to run off at every opportunity.

 

[RearNaked]

In bird, langford, mcniece out stanton, Stewart, myers
Give McGrath midfield time

 

[Capt Hindsight]

OUT: Stanton, Howlett
IN: Kelly (If fit), Langford

B McGrath Hurley Baguley
HB Gleeson Hartley McKenna
C Colyer Watson Zaharakis
HF Stewart Hooker Fantasia
F Green Daniher McDonald-Tipungwuti

FOL Bellchambers Heppell Merrett

I/C Kelly Goddard Langford Myers

 

[pazza]

I'm not sure the players who came out for this week will be back in next week.

I'm looking at:

Out: Stanton, Howlett
In: Langford, Bird

 

[BomberTime]

I worry with Dixon, Westhoff and Trengrove. Hurley and Hartley will match up on two clearly. Leaving Gleeson to take the third?

 

[JayJ20]

Port are a good side. They were super impressive against Hawthorn in the first half. They weren't great in the second half, but that's probably because they put the foot off the pedal.

One thing I've noticed with Port however is that they bomb the ball inside 50s quite often instead of lowering the eyes with precision kicking, so a lot of their inside 50s go to waste because of it. Many of their behinds were bombs in hope. If they do that against us, our defence will give their talls a hard time. West Coast did the same thing. Port dominated the inside 50s stat, but West Coast were more efficient up forward.

Port average 60+ inside 50s for the year, so best believe that the inside 50s stat will look something close to how it did vs Richmond.

Call me crazy, but I think we are a chance. We won't match their midfield, but we can minimise its impact by forcing the turnover through pressure.
Basically, we need to watch the Essendon vs Geelong game and emulate the pressure that we put on the ball carriers. Geelong dominated us on the inside, but we forced them to lose it by keeping them closely checked.

I think that level of pressure is more possible and more amplified with the dimensions of Etihad. Port won't have the space that they do at Adelaide Oval.

Like GWS, we match up well against Port, winning 5 of our last 7 games against them (5/6 if we don't include that write off year).

I think it'll be a high scoring and entertaining game, but Port will probably get the 4 points in the end.

Changes:

Ins: Langford, Kelly (If he is ready), McNiece
Out: Stanton, Howlett, Colyer

Tempted to put Francis or McKernan in for Stewart, but I'll hold off.

I've put Langford in as a midfielder and not a third tall.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

In: Kelly, Langford,
Out: Colyer, Stewart

McKenna to move on wing in Colyer role.

 

[efcboy]

I'm assuming Kelly and parish will not be available this week - with the bye coming up would be silly to take a risk.

In: Bird, Langford
Out: Howlett, Stewart

B: Baguley, Hartley, McGrath
HB: Gleeson, Hurley, McKenna
C: Tippa, Heppell, Goddard
HF: Colyer, Hooker, Myers
F: Green, Daniher, Fantasia
Foll: Bellchambers, Zerrett, Zaharakis
Int: Watson, Bird, Langford, Stanton

Myers is ordinary in defence and hasn't hit his straps in midfield - perhaps he could take Stewart's role in the forwardline. His kicking for goal is good - he dobbed a ripping banana goal yesterday.

Bird deserves a game - he's been consistently good in the VFL for weeks. Langford could use another chance also.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

In: Mutch, Langford
Outs: Stanton, Stewart

 

[Mercurial89]

Id trial running with two rucks.

Leuey for Stewart
Langford in for Howlett
Kelly for stants, if kelly isnt fit maybe Dea

 

[westking]

Out: Stanton, Howlett, Colyer
In: Langford, McNeice, another debutant - whoever

Hope we can hold them in the first, they are very fast starters. If it's close at 3qtr time we need a plan to contain Ryder - otherwise he will dominate us. (He will prob be the difference sad to say)

 

[rumply]

Form hasn't been too bad the last 2 weeks against solid sides so think we are a good chance to pinch this one, that a few players might be looking for the break my biggest concern. Stewart a frustrating player so do we persist or bring in Leuey, seems a waste for him not to be in if he's fit but guess that throws the balance off.

 

[JayJ20]

Out: Stanton, Howlett, Colyer
In: Langford, McNeice, another debutant - whoever

Hope we can hold them in the first, they are very fast starters. If it's close at 3qtr time we need a plan to contain Ryder - otherwise he will dominate us. (He will prob be the difference sad to say)

Pfft. They need to hold us in the first

No team has started better than us. We're 9-2 in first quarters and they are 7-3. 2 games clear!

 

[King_Tredrea]

Port are a good side. They were super impressive against Hawthorn in the first half. They weren't great in the second half, but that's probably because they put the foot off the pedal.

One thing I've noticed with Port however is that they bomb the ball inside 50s quite often instead of lowering the eyes with precision kicking, so a lot of their inside 50s go to waste because of it. Many of their behinds were bombs in hope. If they do that against us, our defence will give their talls a hard time. West Coast did the same thing. Port dominated the inside 50s stat, but West Coast were more efficient up forward.

Port average 60+ inside 50s for the year, so best believe that the inside 50s stat will look something close to how it did vs Richmond.

Call me crazy, but I think we are a chance. We won't match their midfield, but we can minimise its impact by forcing the turnover through pressure.
Basically, we need to watch the Essendon vs Geelong game and emulate the pressure that we put on the ball carriers. Geelong dominated us on the inside, but we forced them to lose it by keeping them closely checked.

I think that level of pressure is more possible and more amplified with the dimensions of Etihad. Port won't have the space that they do at Adelaide Oval.

Like GWS, we match up well against Port, winning 5 of our last 7 games against them (5/6 if we don't include that write off year).

I think it'll be a high scoring and entertaining game, but Port will probably get the 4 points in the end.

Changes:

Ins: Langford, Kelly (If he is ready), McNiece
Out: Stanton, Howlett, Colyer

Tempted to put Francis or McKernan in for Stewart, but I'll hold off.

I've put Langford in as a midfielder and not a third tall.

Very good analysis. The last kick inside 50 has been an Achilles heal for a long time (I remember seeing some stats saying we've been one of the worst at it for a while). Hasn't changed much in 2017. We are scoring more through weight of entries then anything. If we don't lower the eyes at Etihad you guys will blitz the ball Coast to coast

 

[JayJ20]

Very good analysis. The last kick inside 50 has been an Achilles heal for a long time (I remember seeing some stats saying we've been one of the worst at it for a while). Hasn't changed much in 2017. We are scoring more through weight of entries then anything. If we don't lower the eyes at Etihad you guys will blitz the ball Coast to coast

Clearly I was going for Port on Thursday
And against Geelong too.

But Port set up really well once the ball goes in, which forces repeat entries. The game will probably be played in Port's half as ball movement from defence is our achilles heel. If that happens for a big part of the game like it did against Richmond, we won't win. If it is a contested low scoring game, again, Port will probably win. If it is more free flowing with a lot of uncontested mark, then we're a chance.

Our midfield simply must pressure the ball carrier or the game will leave our grasp very quickly.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Hoping we win but I don't see it our next win will be against Brisbane.

 

[windyhill]

We're home, get on.

 

[Vindicater]

Out: Howlett, Colyer and Stanton.

In: Bird, Langford and Dea

 

[Dons4days]

Ins - McNiece, Langford, Kelly & Bird/Hocking
Outs - Stanton, Howlett, Stewart & Colyer

- Steward seems very indecisive at times and doesn't have enough influence throughout entire games
- McNiece in the player McGrath role with McGrath moving up the ground to play Colyers Role
- Langford to rotate with Jobe through the midfield and forward as the medium marking option
- Bird or Hocking in to add some toughness to the midfield against a pretty tough port midfield
- The coaches also need to find a way to get Walla involved when he's quiet. He's far to damaging & important to us for him to missing in patches like he has the past few weeks. A few kickouts maybe??