eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: Had a tough game up north against Gold Coast, but fought bravely to only go down by 2 points with impressive games from Shaun McKernan who kicked 3 goals, as well as Brent Stanton leading from the front again with 27 disposals.
Richmond: Completely dominated Collingwood with a 91 point win, Dustin Martin collecting 32 disposals in a dominant midfield display and Tyrone Vickery having a career high 6 goals were among the best for Richmond.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 2-3 Richmond
Sportsbet odds
Essendon $5.75
Richmond $1.14
Line $1.92 +/-35.5 points.
Possible sides
Essendon vs Richmond
B: Baguley - Carlisle - Gleeson
F: Edward - Riewoldt - Cotchin
HB: Browne - Hurley - Hibberd
HF: Lennon - Vickery - Martin
C: J Merrett - Hocking - Stanton
C: Ellis - Deledio - Hunt
HF: Laverde - McKernan - Goddard
HB: Vlaustin - Rance - Houli
F: Edwards - Daniher - Hooker
B: Morris - Chaplin - Batchelor
R: Giles - Kavanagh - Heppell
R: Maric - Grigg - Lambert
I: Fantasia - Melksham - Dempsey
I: Miles - McIntosh - Lloyd
S: Zaharakis
S: Newman
Essendon defence vs Richmond forward line
Richmond have been excellent in this area, averaging nearly 25% in terms of goals/inside 50, above the AFL average and 25% in terms of marks/inside 50, well above the league average in that category. Essendon conversely have struggled in this area, conceding 26% of the time when the opponent goes inside 50, and 22% in terms of marks/inside 50, which is on the league average. Essendon have been poor in this area since Michael Hurley has been missing, but with him back it'll be hopefully better for Essendon, he'll be on Jack Riewoldt in all likelihood, a potential All Australian CHF vs CHB match-up with both having elite seasons. Tyrone Vickery is coming off a 6 goal performance and will want to repeat the dose against Jake Carlisle, who looks disinterested out there at the moment. Richmond's structure will rely upon Dustin Martin or Brett Deledio kicking goals rotating through there, with the latter arguably the most important player for the Tigers, likely to be played against someone like Mark Baguley.
Midfield/rucks battle
This is the area that Richmond will really be confident in getting ahold of, Essendon are one of the worst contested possession and clearance sides in the AFL, ranked 17th for clearance differential and 16th for contested possession differential. Richmond are ranked 10th and 4th in each respectively, which is unsurprising considering the years captain Trent Cotchin, Anthony Miles, Martin and Deledio are having, the four of them averaging over 16 clearances a game between them. Essendon have struggled due to the absence of at least two of David Myers, Heath Hocking and Jobe Watson for the vast majority of the season, which has put pressure on Dyson Heppell, who has stood up fairly well but they need to release some of that pressure, having tried Nick O'Brien but needs to change to someone like Elliott Kavanagh. The outside brigade is pretty good with Brent Stanton and David Zaharakis, although players like Brandon Ellis will be able to match them in that regard. In terms of the ruck, Ivan Maric isn't the most dominant hitout ruckman and as such Essendon will be hopeful in that regard, but Jonathon Giles and Shaun McKernan will try to beat him around the ground.
Essendon forward line vs Richmond defence
This is probably the weakest area for both sides. Essendon average a tad under 21% goals/inside 50, below the AFL average, and 20% in terms of marks/inside 50, also under the AFL average. Conversely Richmond average 22% for each, which is below the AFL average for the former and on the average for the latter. Essendon's main hopes will be on Joe Daniher and Cale Hooker, but McKernan could bob up and kick a few after arguably the best game of his career. Alex Rance looks likely to have back to back All Australians, and will likely play on Joe Daniher. Troy Chaplin will likely to play on Hooker, which leaves undersized Jake Batchelor on the resting ruck, which will be tough on him. Jayden Laverde has been exciting across half forward for Essendon and will want to continue against a top 8 side this season, up against rebounder Bachar Houli who can be a bit suspect defensively.
X-Factor Player
Shaun Edwards has shown many tricks in his time in the seniors of Essendon after coming across from GWS, but has struggled for consistency. Hopefully bomber fans can get excited by him again this game.
Key stat
Essendon: Opposition rebound 50's. Essendon can struggle to keep the ball inside 50 at times and their forward pressure needs to be top notch this game.
Richmond: Contested possessions. The vast majority of the time, they win this stat, they win the game.
Tip
Richmond are building impressively, and Essendon have had a season to forget. Richmond by 52
Essendon: Had a tough game up north against Gold Coast, but fought bravely to only go down by 2 points with impressive games from Shaun McKernan who kicked 3 goals, as well as Brent Stanton leading from the front again with 27 disposals.
Richmond: Completely dominated Collingwood with a 91 point win, Dustin Martin collecting 32 disposals in a dominant midfield display and Tyrone Vickery having a career high 6 goals were among the best for Richmond.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 2-3 Richmond
Sportsbet odds
Essendon $5.75
Richmond $1.14
Line $1.92 +/-35.5 points.
Possible sides
Essendon vs Richmond
B: Baguley - Carlisle - Gleeson
F: Edward - Riewoldt - Cotchin
HB: Browne - Hurley - Hibberd
HF: Lennon - Vickery - Martin
C: J Merrett - Hocking - Stanton
C: Ellis - Deledio - Hunt
HF: Laverde - McKernan - Goddard
HB: Vlaustin - Rance - Houli
F: Edwards - Daniher - Hooker
B: Morris - Chaplin - Batchelor
R: Giles - Kavanagh - Heppell
R: Maric - Grigg - Lambert
I: Fantasia - Melksham - Dempsey
I: Miles - McIntosh - Lloyd
S: Zaharakis
S: Newman
Essendon defence vs Richmond forward line
Richmond have been excellent in this area, averaging nearly 25% in terms of goals/inside 50, above the AFL average and 25% in terms of marks/inside 50, well above the league average in that category. Essendon conversely have struggled in this area, conceding 26% of the time when the opponent goes inside 50, and 22% in terms of marks/inside 50, which is on the league average. Essendon have been poor in this area since Michael Hurley has been missing, but with him back it'll be hopefully better for Essendon, he'll be on Jack Riewoldt in all likelihood, a potential All Australian CHF vs CHB match-up with both having elite seasons. Tyrone Vickery is coming off a 6 goal performance and will want to repeat the dose against Jake Carlisle, who looks disinterested out there at the moment. Richmond's structure will rely upon Dustin Martin or Brett Deledio kicking goals rotating through there, with the latter arguably the most important player for the Tigers, likely to be played against someone like Mark Baguley.
Midfield/rucks battle
This is the area that Richmond will really be confident in getting ahold of, Essendon are one of the worst contested possession and clearance sides in the AFL, ranked 17th for clearance differential and 16th for contested possession differential. Richmond are ranked 10th and 4th in each respectively, which is unsurprising considering the years captain Trent Cotchin, Anthony Miles, Martin and Deledio are having, the four of them averaging over 16 clearances a game between them. Essendon have struggled due to the absence of at least two of David Myers, Heath Hocking and Jobe Watson for the vast majority of the season, which has put pressure on Dyson Heppell, who has stood up fairly well but they need to release some of that pressure, having tried Nick O'Brien but needs to change to someone like Elliott Kavanagh. The outside brigade is pretty good with Brent Stanton and David Zaharakis, although players like Brandon Ellis will be able to match them in that regard. In terms of the ruck, Ivan Maric isn't the most dominant hitout ruckman and as such Essendon will be hopeful in that regard, but Jonathon Giles and Shaun McKernan will try to beat him around the ground.
Essendon forward line vs Richmond defence
This is probably the weakest area for both sides. Essendon average a tad under 21% goals/inside 50, below the AFL average, and 20% in terms of marks/inside 50, also under the AFL average. Conversely Richmond average 22% for each, which is below the AFL average for the former and on the average for the latter. Essendon's main hopes will be on Joe Daniher and Cale Hooker, but McKernan could bob up and kick a few after arguably the best game of his career. Alex Rance looks likely to have back to back All Australians, and will likely play on Joe Daniher. Troy Chaplin will likely to play on Hooker, which leaves undersized Jake Batchelor on the resting ruck, which will be tough on him. Jayden Laverde has been exciting across half forward for Essendon and will want to continue against a top 8 side this season, up against rebounder Bachar Houli who can be a bit suspect defensively.
X-Factor Player
Shaun Edwards has shown many tricks in his time in the seniors of Essendon after coming across from GWS, but has struggled for consistency. Hopefully bomber fans can get excited by him again this game.
Key stat
Essendon: Opposition rebound 50's. Essendon can struggle to keep the ball inside 50 at times and their forward pressure needs to be top notch this game.
Richmond: Contested possessions. The vast majority of the time, they win this stat, they win the game.
Tip
Richmond are building impressively, and Essendon have had a season to forget. Richmond by 52
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