eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: Had a nailbiting win against top 4 opponent GWS, kicking 4 of the last 5 goals to get over the line by 6 points. Zach Merrett was the most prolific midfielder with 28 disposals and 7 clearances whilst Cale Hooker's move forward in the last quarter proved a match winner, kicking 2 goals including the winner along with Shaun McKernan and Jayden Laverde
Sydney: The Swans were fairly evenly matched with Gold Coast for the first half before pulling away in the second half, kicking 8 goals to 2 after half time to win by 7 goals. Luke Parker and Jordan Dawson were very good in the midfield with 31 and 28 disposals apiece whilst Sam Reid and Isaac Heeney kicked 2 apiece inside 50.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 1-4 Sydney
Form Guide
Essendon: 3W 2L
Sydney: 2W 2L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $1.53
Sydney: $2.40
Line: 10.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Sydney
B: Aaron Francis - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Tom McCartin - Sam Reid - Tom Papley
HB: Conor McKenna - Michael Hurley - Mason Redman
HF: Jordan Dawson - Nick Blakey - Ben Ronke
C: Andrew McGrath - Dylan Clarke - Zach Merrett
C: George Hewett - Luke Parker - Zak Jones
HF: Matthew Guelfi - Jake Stringer - Orazio Fantasia
HB: Callum Mills - Aliir Aliir - Jake Lloyd
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Shaun McKernan - Jayden Laverde
B: Colin O'Riordan - Dane Rampe - Lewis Melican
R: Zach Clarke - Dylan Shiel - Dyson Heppell
R: Callum Sinclair - Josh Kennedy - Oliver Florent
I: Darcy Parish - Martin Gleeson - Kyle Langford - David Zaharakis
I: Isaac Heeney - James Rowbottom - Will Hayward - James Rose
Essendon in: Jake Stringer, Zach Clarke, Matthew Guelfi; Out: Tom Bellchambers (inj), Mitchell Brown (omit), Josh Begley (omit)
Sydney in: Michael Knoll; Out: Callum Sinclair (inj)
Sydney defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.6% of the time it enters the 50. Sydney are also quite strong, conceding a goal 20.5% of the time it enters their defensive 50. There are three match ups to focus upon up here, the first being Lewis Melican against Cale Hooker and Shaun McKernan, who will be rotating between ruck and forward, given that Melican is a big strong lad and would be troubled by the more athletic players, he needs to shut them down well to allow Aliir Aliir to cover the dangerous Jake Stringer. The last one I want to focus on is Dane Rampe on Orazio Fantasia, who is a bit quicker than most of the opponents he takes, but always send your best defender to the opposition best forward if they're capable of shutting them down.
Midfield/rucks battle
As it stands, Essendon have been much stronger at the contest this season, being 5th and 10th in clearance and contested possession differential so far this season, whilst Sydney are languishing at 16th and 17th for those particular areas. Sydney really only have 3 players averaging over 4 clearances a game in Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy and their tagger in George Hewett, whilst Isaac Heeney and Zak Jones join them in 8 or more contested possessions a game. Essendon have a more even spread with Dylan Shiel, Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell and Dylan Clarke all averaging 4 or more clearances, Darcy Parish also getting 8 or more contested possessions a game. I expect Hewett to go to Merrett and Clarke to go to Kennedy, the two taggers will play an important role this week against each other. In terms of rucks, Callum Sinclair is averaging 26.7 hit outs a game and will be looking to dominate this against Shaun McKernan, who gets clumsy when he's rucking sometimes, but will try to beat Sinclair on the spread.
Sydney forward line vs Essendon defence
Sydney are pretty strong in this area, they kick goals 23.8% of the time it enters their forward 50. Essendon conced a goal 19.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. The Swans are without Lance Franklin, and as such it's players like Nick Blakey, Tom McCartin and Sam Reid brunting the load inside 50, who will have a stern test against the likes of Michael Hurley, Aaron Francis and Michael Hartley respectively, but it's the small forwards I want to focus on. Tom Papley is having a career best year, having kicked 23 goals and having 12 assists so far, but will be up against Adam Saad, who is also having an excellent year, and kept Papley to 8 disposals and a goal earlier in the season, whilst Ben Ronke is having a poorer season after bursting onto the scene last year and will be on returning defender Martin Gleeson.
X-Factor Player
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti is having a poor season so far and has an average record against the Swans so far, but if Essendon are to stay in the hunt for finals they need him to fire, which he usually does
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. The Dons are strong around the ball compared to Sydney and need to win this stat.
Sydney: Inside 50 differential. Their forward line and back line are both pretty efficient but only Gold Coast have a bigger difference between the two.
Tip
* it. Essendon by 27
Essendon: Had a nailbiting win against top 4 opponent GWS, kicking 4 of the last 5 goals to get over the line by 6 points. Zach Merrett was the most prolific midfielder with 28 disposals and 7 clearances whilst Cale Hooker's move forward in the last quarter proved a match winner, kicking 2 goals including the winner along with Shaun McKernan and Jayden Laverde
Sydney: The Swans were fairly evenly matched with Gold Coast for the first half before pulling away in the second half, kicking 8 goals to 2 after half time to win by 7 goals. Luke Parker and Jordan Dawson were very good in the midfield with 31 and 28 disposals apiece whilst Sam Reid and Isaac Heeney kicked 2 apiece inside 50.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 1-4 Sydney
Form Guide
Essendon: 3W 2L
Sydney: 2W 2L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $1.53
Sydney: $2.40
Line: 10.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Sydney
B: Aaron Francis - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Tom McCartin - Sam Reid - Tom Papley
HB: Conor McKenna - Michael Hurley - Mason Redman
HF: Jordan Dawson - Nick Blakey - Ben Ronke
C: Andrew McGrath - Dylan Clarke - Zach Merrett
C: George Hewett - Luke Parker - Zak Jones
HF: Matthew Guelfi - Jake Stringer - Orazio Fantasia
HB: Callum Mills - Aliir Aliir - Jake Lloyd
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Shaun McKernan - Jayden Laverde
B: Colin O'Riordan - Dane Rampe - Lewis Melican
R: Zach Clarke - Dylan Shiel - Dyson Heppell
R: Callum Sinclair - Josh Kennedy - Oliver Florent
I: Darcy Parish - Martin Gleeson - Kyle Langford - David Zaharakis
I: Isaac Heeney - James Rowbottom - Will Hayward - James Rose
Essendon in: Jake Stringer, Zach Clarke, Matthew Guelfi; Out: Tom Bellchambers (inj), Mitchell Brown (omit), Josh Begley (omit)
Sydney in: Michael Knoll; Out: Callum Sinclair (inj)
Sydney defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.6% of the time it enters the 50. Sydney are also quite strong, conceding a goal 20.5% of the time it enters their defensive 50. There are three match ups to focus upon up here, the first being Lewis Melican against Cale Hooker and Shaun McKernan, who will be rotating between ruck and forward, given that Melican is a big strong lad and would be troubled by the more athletic players, he needs to shut them down well to allow Aliir Aliir to cover the dangerous Jake Stringer. The last one I want to focus on is Dane Rampe on Orazio Fantasia, who is a bit quicker than most of the opponents he takes, but always send your best defender to the opposition best forward if they're capable of shutting them down.
Midfield/rucks battle
As it stands, Essendon have been much stronger at the contest this season, being 5th and 10th in clearance and contested possession differential so far this season, whilst Sydney are languishing at 16th and 17th for those particular areas. Sydney really only have 3 players averaging over 4 clearances a game in Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy and their tagger in George Hewett, whilst Isaac Heeney and Zak Jones join them in 8 or more contested possessions a game. Essendon have a more even spread with Dylan Shiel, Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell and Dylan Clarke all averaging 4 or more clearances, Darcy Parish also getting 8 or more contested possessions a game. I expect Hewett to go to Merrett and Clarke to go to Kennedy, the two taggers will play an important role this week against each other. In terms of rucks, Callum Sinclair is averaging 26.7 hit outs a game and will be looking to dominate this against Shaun McKernan, who gets clumsy when he's rucking sometimes, but will try to beat Sinclair on the spread.
Sydney forward line vs Essendon defence
Sydney are pretty strong in this area, they kick goals 23.8% of the time it enters their forward 50. Essendon conced a goal 19.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. The Swans are without Lance Franklin, and as such it's players like Nick Blakey, Tom McCartin and Sam Reid brunting the load inside 50, who will have a stern test against the likes of Michael Hurley, Aaron Francis and Michael Hartley respectively, but it's the small forwards I want to focus on. Tom Papley is having a career best year, having kicked 23 goals and having 12 assists so far, but will be up against Adam Saad, who is also having an excellent year, and kept Papley to 8 disposals and a goal earlier in the season, whilst Ben Ronke is having a poorer season after bursting onto the scene last year and will be on returning defender Martin Gleeson.
X-Factor Player
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti is having a poor season so far and has an average record against the Swans so far, but if Essendon are to stay in the hunt for finals they need him to fire, which he usually does
Key stat
Essendon: Clearances. The Dons are strong around the ball compared to Sydney and need to win this stat.
Sydney: Inside 50 differential. Their forward line and back line are both pretty efficient but only Gold Coast have a bigger difference between the two.
Tip
* it. Essendon by 27
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