Essendon, where are they now?

citizen-erased

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 11, 2007
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I like that you're putting titles on your posts now. A little self deprecating, but fairly accurate.

I'll try to keep this as simple as possible. The AFL creates the draw by making sure lower ranked teams from the previous year are more likely to play each other, and higher ranked teams are more likely to play each other. This means teams in the bottom half of the ladder have an easier draw than teams in the top half (on average of course - clearly teams move about and sometimes the AFLs target of easier draws for lower ranked teams doesn't work out). An easier draw makes it easier to win games, which makes it easier to make finals. Essendon were in the bottom half of the ladder last year. They performed poorly against other top 8 sides, but still manage to make finals.

This is apparently what the AFL wants. According to the AFL on their "fixture explained' page on the AFL web site, "On-field equity is a key component of the AFL’s philosophy. As such, providing all clubs with the opportunity to be successful and contest the Toyota AFL Finals Series is a crucial element of the AFL fixture.". So letting teams that are not really good enough to play finals otherwise, actually play finals is apparently a key goal of the fixture, and Essendon have benefited from this policy in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Mission accomplished AFL.
Correct
Enjoy your 2020 fixture as such :)
 

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TheGreatBarryB

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Mar 20, 2007
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I like that you're putting titles on your posts now. A little self deprecating, but fairly accurate.

I'll try to keep this as simple as possible. The AFL creates the draw by making sure lower ranked teams from the previous year are more likely to play each other, and higher ranked teams are more likely to play each other. This means teams in the bottom half of the ladder have an easier draw than teams in the top half (on average of course - clearly teams move about and sometimes the AFLs target of easier draws for lower ranked teams doesn't work out). An easier draw makes it easier to win games, which makes it easier to make finals. Essendon were in the bottom half of the ladder last year. They performed poorly against other top 8 sides, but still manage to make finals.

This is apparently what the AFL wants. According to the AFL on their "fixture explained' page on the AFL web site, "On-field equity is a key component of the AFL’s philosophy. As such, providing all clubs with the opportunity to be successful and contest the Toyota AFL Finals Series is a crucial element of the AFL fixture.". So letting teams that are not really good enough to play finals otherwise, actually play finals is apparently a key goal of the fixture, and Essendon have benefited from this policy in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Mission accomplished AFL.
Stop whinging. You were 4-7 against top 8 teams, we were 3-6 and had more injuries. If you’d beaten us you’d be above us, but you didn’t.

You’ve lost your last 4 finals last 3 years, we’ve lost last 4 finals over last 10 years.

If you ignore your last 3 premierships it’s been close.
 

Ambrosia

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 11, 2010
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Stop whinging. You were 4-7 against top 8 teams, we were 3-6 and had more injuries. If you’d beaten us you’d be above us, but you didn’t.

You’ve lost your last 4 finals last 3 years, we’ve lost last 4 finals over last 10 years.

If you ignore your last 3 premierships it’s been close.
Nah man you don’t understand because the Bulldogs and Port pumped us and ruined our percentage we don’t deserve to play finals :drunk: Hawthorn should take our place because despite winning less games then us they did better against the top 4 teams and only lost coz they kicked points instead of goals.
 

hk89

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 12, 2009
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If you ignore your last 3 premierships it’s been close.
Lol. Such Essendon logic.

Goes well with, "If you ignore the 34 drug convictions, Hird was a good bloke and a fine coach".

You were 4-7 against top 8 teams, we were 3-6
As for our performance against the top 8, using the current top 8:
Hawthorn's percentage against top 8: 96%
Essendon's percentage against top 8: 70%

You mention your 3-6 record against the top 8, who were these 3 wins against? I can see GWS and Brisbane (both in Melbourne), which one am I missing? Have you penciled in Pies as a win? Seems to me you won half has many games against current top 8 sides compared to Hawthorn, and never beat any of them outside of Melbourne, and also had a massively worse percentage against them than we did.

In any case, this isn't about Hawthorn, it is about teams not belonging in the top 8 , but finishing there because the AFL believes the fixture is a tool to help implement equalisation. Essendon were rubbish early in the year without their extensive injury list, some of their injuries are to players that are now looking somewhat injury prone, so are no certainty to play a significant chunk of next year, and the team appears to be lacking in on field leadership, hence the 20+ unanswered goals against bulldogs. I don't see any reason to be optimistic about next year for them, unless some fairly significant trades happen (which will be difficult with your first rounder already gone). I'm sure the media will be pumping up their tires leading into the 2020 season though, but who knows, perhaps they've finally learnt their lesson.
 

TheGreatBarryB

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Mar 20, 2007
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Lol. Such Essendon logic.

Goes well with, "If you ignore the 34 drug convictions, Hird was a good bloke and a fine coach".



As for our performance against the top 8, using the current top 8:
Hawthorn's percentage against top 8: 96%
Essendon's percentage against top 8: 70%

You mention your 3-6 record against the top 8, who were these 3 wins against? I can see GWS and Brisbane (both in Melbourne), which one am I missing? Have you penciled in Pies as a win? Seems to me you won half has many games against current top 8 sides compared to Hawthorn, and never beat any of them outside of Melbourne, and also had a massively worse percentage against them than we did.

In any case, this isn't about Hawthorn, it is about teams not belonging in the top 8 , but finishing there because the AFL believes the fixture is a tool to help implement equalisation. Essendon were rubbish early in the year without their extensive injury list, some of their injuries are to players that are now looking somewhat injury prone, so are no certainty to play a significant chunk of next year, and the team appears to be lacking in on field leadership, hence the 20+ unanswered goals against bulldogs. I don't see any reason to be optimistic about next year for them, unless some fairly significant trades happen (which will be difficult with your first rounder already gone). I'm sure the media will be pumping up their tires leading into the 2020 season though, but who knows, perhaps they've finally learnt their lesson.
Well obviously I can't include Ess in top 8 when comparing our record so I took 9th placed Hawks.

Take out Dogs game and our percentage is close to teams outside. You're making a whole argument over one game. No reason to be optimistic? I'd be looking in your own yard and all your own 30+ players.
 

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Xavier Menzies

Team Captain
Aug 9, 2012
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Overall I reckon the AFL should stop trying to equalise through the draw. Fans deserve to to see the best teams play finals, and while that mostly happens, it is not uncommon for the teams to make 7th or 8th off the back of an easier draw. I think it is reasonable to say Essendon has done it twice in the last 3 years. The other argument against doing it is that it actually disturbs the other equalisation policies. If your easy draws gives you a couple of extra places up on the ladder compared to where your list is at due to the draw deliberately preferring you to play lower rated teams, then that is a couple of extra places you are bumped down the pecking order in the draft. This year is a little different due to Essendon's injuries, but I think Essendon were more needy of picks than some that finished below them in 2017, especially when you looked at the elimination final result.
Hawks are a quality top 4 side amirite?
Hawthorne are nothing short of overachievers who literally got a armchair ride week in week out.
Coniglio ain't dumb, enjoy the re build champ.

On topic our best is good enough. The best sides have hunger, I'm not sure we do.
 

OneEyedHawk

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 13, 2004
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Hawks are a quality top 4 side amirite?
Hawthorne are nothing short of overachievers who literally got a armchair ride week in week out.
Coniglio ain't dumb, enjoy the re build champ.

On topic our best is good enough. The best sides have hunger, I'm not sure we do.
Have one of your carers explain to you what literally means.
 

zucchini

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Jan 13, 2016
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Don't know if Essendon can play Collingwood 2 weeks in a row but if it happens it will be great to watch them lose another final....
*
 

Ari

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Hate to be a wet blanket but finals cannon fodder yes we won but got smashed on contested possession the teams we will play in finals won't have s**tehouse foot skills like Freo

Unless we fix this we wont win a final
May be true, but also true is that we won't have Clarke rucking against the tallest man in Australia. Belcho will be back and will help us to a 50/50 clearance percentage. With that, we're more likely to collect the ball first up and not give up as many contested possessions.
 

Ari

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Farcical is how the AFL could construct a draw that allows a team with a percentage of 95% to play finals. If you get hammered by pies, then it is possible there will only be 4 teams in the competition with a worse percentage.
Meh. Injuries and etc etc whatever.

You get 0 Premiership points for losing by 1pt or 100 pts.

And you get 4 Premiership points for winning by 1pt or 100pts.

Who cares, game on. Unless you need percentage to play finals, the win column is the only one that matters. And yes, there are teams which are vying for a finals spot this week and hoping their percentage will help them. We're a win ahead of those mobs.
 

Vindicater

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 16, 2013
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A slight improvement on last season.

Positives:

Alot more games into Redman.
Alot more midfield minutes into Parish.
McKenna still learning the ropes but now his best is more often than his worst.
Saad has been brilliant.

Negatives:

Injuries
Another s**t start to the season.
Forcing McGrath into an outside midfield role which is not his game.

I give the season a C. We improved but not by as much as we should have if we are serious about taking this group to a premiership.
 

hk89

Norm Smith Medallist
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Well obviously I can't include Ess in top 8 when comparing our record so I took 9th placed Hawks.
So you told us you were 3-6 against top 8 sides, but actually you were 2-5, and decided to include a game against 9th just to make the numbers look a bit more respectable? 9th is not in the 8 unless you're Carlton in a year Essendon has been caught drug cheating.

Take out Dogs game and our percentage is close to teams outside. You're making a whole argument over one game.
Take the dogs game out of it, and your percentage is still worse than the 4 next teams sitting below you on the ladder. Every team on the ladder would have a better percentage if they were allowed to exclude their worst game.
 

carnthedons

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Sep 12, 2006
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So you told us you were 3-6 against top 8 sides, but actually you were 2-5, and decided to include a game against 9th just to make the numbers look a bit more respectable? 9th is not in the 8 unless you're Carlton in a year Essendon has been caught drug cheating.



Take the dogs game out of it, and your percentage is still worse than the 4 next teams sitting below you on the ladder. Every team on the ladder would have a better percentage if they were allowed to exclude their worst game.
Why look so heavily at percentages, why not the teams around us and head to head matchups? We’re sitting 7th and have beaten 9th, 10th, 12th twice and 13th twice. Why should any of those teams be above us when they’ve lost H2H to us? We lost to 8th and 11th badly and 13th way back in round 2, but every team has bad performances.

I agree we’ve had some s**tty games, dogs the worst of them but if you’re arguing about which of the mid table teams is better and one of those mid table teams has beaten 4 of the next 5 teams on the ladder outside the 8, they’re probably better. I understand it doesn’t fit with your narrative about Hawks are da best but it is what it is.
 

JayJ20

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Aug 28, 2016
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So you told us you were 3-6 against top 8 sides, but actually you were 2-5, and decided to include a game against 9th just to make the numbers look a bit more respectable? 9th is not in the 8 unless you're Carlton in a year Essendon has been caught drug cheating.



Take the dogs game out of it, and your percentage is still worse than the 4 next teams sitting below you on the ladder. Every team on the ladder would have a better percentage if they were allowed to exclude their worst game.
Collingwood were 1-7 against top 8 sides last year. Melbourne were 2-6

Collingwood made the grand final. Melbourne made a prelim.

Hawthorn were 5-4 against the top 8 sides. Hawthorn went out in straight sets.

Yeah we may get thrashed first week, but we may not. What’s your point?
 

hk89

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 12, 2009
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Why look so heavily at percentages, why not the teams around us and head to head matchups? We’re sitting 7th and have beaten 9th, 10th, 12th twice and 13th twice. Why should any of those teams be above us when they’ve lost H2H to us? We lost to 8th and 11th badly and 13th way back in round 2, but every team has bad performances.
Percentage is usually but not always a better indication of form over the year than win/loss is. This is because falling over the line in a bunch of games boosts your win loss but not your percentage, and massive losses don't look any worse than small losses in win loss, but they are reflected in your percentage, i.e a team that loses by 100 to team A is on average going to be a lot worse than a team that loses to team A by a few goals, percentage captures that difference, whereas win/loss doesn't. For example Hawthorn were top of the ladder in 2016 with only a few rounds to go, but had a very s**t percentage compared to their premiership years, and their percentage told a much more accurate story than their ladder position. This is often the case.
 

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