Opinion Essendon's 2013 List: Will/Won't Make It

[Kong]

OK so this is just something to pass the time, and somewhat of a measuring contest for the future, I guess.

Most posters on here have their personal favourite players, who they have and do stand by, even through the tough times.

This isn't so much aimed at declarations of blind faith, but to really, honestly, put yourself on record and say which players you think will or won't "make it".

"Making it" is obviously pretty subjective, so for the interest of consistency, I'd suggest "making it" would be either playing somewhere around 10 years of consistently being in the senior side (someone like McVeigh or Welsh), or made a significant impact on the club (John Barnes' reasonably short career helped us win the 2000 premiership).

Now's the chance to show which players you think will make it, and which won't.

We'll go through every single listed player, leaving no stone unturned, and revisit this each year hereafter, or at the end of each player's careers.

A simple "Will" or "Won't" ought to do it, considering how many players we're covering, and removes the ability to apply "get out" clauses to cover your tracks later

Of course, Watson, Hille, Lovett-Murray would already be "Will".

I'll let you decide on Goddard, as you may think he "won't" achieve that at Essendon.

Winderlich has been around 10 years, but hasn't consistently played (granted, due to injury) so you can still make your own call on that.

 

[Kong]

1 Michael Hibberd
2 Tom Bellchambers
3 Scott Gumbleton
4 Jobe Watson
5 Brent Stanton
6 Joe Daniher
7 Leroy Jetta
8 Jason Winderlich
9 Brendon Goddard
10 Nick O'Brien
11 David Zaharakis
12 Stewart Crameri
14 Jason Ashby
15 Courtenay Dempsey
16 Tayte Pears
17 Jake Melksham
18 Michael Hurley
19 David Hille
20 Jackson Merrett
21 Dyson Heppell
22 Jake Carlisle
23 David Myers
24 Alex Browne
26 Cale Hooker
27 Luke Davis
28 Elliott Kavanagh
29 Alwyn Davey
30 Paddy Ryder
31 Dustin Fletcher
32 Travis Colyer
33 Dylan Van Unen
34 Kyle Hardingham
35 Martin Gleeson
37 Sean Gregory
38 Nicholas Kommer
39 Heath Hocking
40 Ben Howlett
41 Will Hams
42 Nathan Lovett-Murray
46 Mark Baguley

25 Ariel Steinberg
36 Lauchlan Dalgleish
45 Hal Hunter
47 Cory Dell'Olio

 

[Kong]

I'll kick things off.

1 Michael Hibberd Will
2 Tom Bellchambers Will
3 Scott Gumbleton Won't
4 Jobe Watson Will
5 Brent Stanton Will
6 Joe Daniher Will
7 Leroy Jetta Won't
8 Jason Winderlich Won't
9 Brendon Goddard Will
10 Nick O'Brien Won't
11 David Zaharakis Will
12 Stewart Crameri Will
14 Jason Ashby Won't
15 Courtenay Dempsey Will
16 Tayte Pears Will
17 Jake Melksham Will
18 Michael Hurley Will
19 David Hille Will
20 Jackson Merrett Will
21 Dyson Heppell Will
22 Jake Carlisle Will
23 David Myers Will
24 Alex Browne Won't
26 Cale Hooker Will
27 Luke Davis Won't
28 Elliott Kavanagh Won't
29 Alwyn Davey Will
30 Paddy Ryder Will
31 Dustin Fletcher Will
32 Travis Colyer Won't
33 Dylan Van Unen Won't
34 Kyle Hardingham Will
35 Martin Gleeson Will
37 Sean Gregory Won't
38 Nicholas Kommer Won't
39 Heath Hocking Will
40 Ben Howlett Will
41 Will Hams Won't
42 Nathan Lovett-Murray Will
46 Mark Baguley Won't

25 Ariel Steinberg Won't
36 Lauchlan Dalgleish Won't
45 Hal Hunter Won't
47 Cory Dell'Olio Will

 

[Towno78]

So, essentially long career and/or achieving success?
2014-5 back-to-back premierships should hold most of the list in good stead there

I'm def not going to have myself judged on an assessment of 1st year players who haven't even completed their first preseason with us though... Leaving them blank.

1 Michael Hibberd Will
2 Tom Bellchambers Will
3 Scott Gumbleton Won't
4 Jobe Watson
5 Brent Stanton Will
6 Joe Daniher Will
7 Leroy Jetta Won't
8 Jason Winderlich Won't
9 Brendon Goddard Will
10 Nick O'Brien Will
11 David Zaharakis Will
12 Stewart Crameri Will
14 Jason Ashby
15 Courtenay Dempsey Will
16 Tayte Pears Will
17 Jake Melksham Will
18 Michael Hurley Will
19 David Hille
20 Jackson Merrett Will
21 Dyson Heppell Will
22 Jake Carlisle Will
23 David Myers Will
24 Alex Browne Won't
26 Cale Hooker Will
27 Luke Davis Won't
28 Elliott Kavanagh Will
29 Alwyn Davey Won't
30 Paddy Ryder Will
31 Dustin Fletcher
32 Travis Colyer Won't
33 Dylan Van Unen
34 Kyle Hardingham Won't
35 Martin Gleeson
37 Sean Gregory
38 Nicholas Kommer
39 Heath Hocking Won't
40 Ben Howlett Will
41 Will Hams
42 Nathan Lovett-Murray
46 Mark Baguley Won't

25 Ariel Steinberg Won't
36 Lauchlan Dalgleish Won't
45 Hal Hunter Won't
47 Cory Dell'Olio Won't

 

[lamaros]

1 Michael Hibberd Will
2 Tom Bellchambers Will
3 Scott Gumbleton Will
4 Jobe Watson Has
5 Brent Stanton Has
6 Joe Daniher Will
7 Leroy Jetta Will
8 Jason Winderlich Has
9 Brendon Goddard Will
10 Nick O'Brien Will
11 David Zaharakis Will
12 Stewart Crameri Will
14 Jason Ashby NFI
15 Courtenay Dempsey Will
16 Tayte Pears Will
17 Jake Melksham Will
18 Michael Hurley Will
19 David Hille Has
20 Jackson Merrett Won't
21 Dyson Heppell Will
22 Jake Carlisle Will
23 David Myers Will
24 Alex Browne Will
26 Cale Hooker Will
27 Luke Davis NFI
28 Elliott Kavanagh Will
29 Alwyn Davey Will
30 Paddy Ryder Has
31 Dustin Fletcher Has
32 Travis Colyer Won't
33 Dylan Van Unen NFI
34 Kyle Hardingham Won't
35 Martin Gleeson Will
37 Sean Gregory NFI
38 Nicholas Kommer Won't
39 Heath Hocking Will
40 Ben Howlett Will
41 Will Hams Will
42 Nathan Lovett-Murray Has
46 Mark Baguley Won't

25 Ariel Steinberg Won't (Sadly - I hope to be very wrong)
36 Lauchlan Dalgleish Won't
45 Hal Hunter Won't
47 Cory Dell'Olio Won't

 

[Rack Watts]

Any player with above 100 games has made it already, surely?

 

[lamaros]

"Making it" is obviously pretty subjective, so for the interest of consistency, I'd suggest "making it" would be either playing somewhere around 10 years of consistently being in the senior side (someone like McVeigh or Welsh), or made a significant impact on the club (John Barnes' reasonably short career helped us win the 2000 premiership).

For a lot of players this comes down to - do we win a premiership in the next few years?

Does Hocking have 6 more years of best 22 footy in him? No way. But if he's in the team for the next 4 years and we win a flag, does he make it? What if we only go close?

You say Welsh "made it" but he only played 20+ games for the side in 4 seasons. Hocking is ahead of him at their respective stages of their careers for sure. He's probably already ahead over all. Welsh ended his career scratching out 10 game seasons.

My measurement is simple - they play 100 games of footy for the club, and/or at least 4+ clear best 22 seasons.

 

[Loonerty]

1 Michael HibberdWill
2 Tom Bellchambers Will
3 Scott Gumbleton Won't
4 Jobe Watson Will
5 Brent Stanton Will
6 Joe Daniher Will
7 Leroy Jetta Won't
8 Jason Winderlich Won't
9 Brendon Goddard Will
10 Nick O'Brien Will
11 David Zaharakis Will
12 Stewart Crameri Will
14 Jason Ashby Won't
15 Courtenay Dempsey Will
16 Tayte Pears Won't
17 Jake Melksham Won't
18 Michael Hurley Will
19 David Hille Will
20 Jackson Merrett Will
21 Dyson Heppell Will
22 Jake Carlisle Will
23 David Myers Will
24 Alex Browne Will
26 Cale Hooker Will
27 Luke Davis Will
28 Elliott Kavanagh Will
29 Alwyn Davey Will
30 Paddy Ryder Will
31 Dustin Fletcher Will
32 Travis Colyer Won't
33 Dylan Van Unen Won't
34 Kyle Hardingham Will
35 Martin Gleeson Will
37 Sean Gregory Will
38 Nicholas Kommer Won't
39 Heath Hocking Will
40 Ben Howlett Will
41 Will Hams Won't
42 Nathan Lovett-Murray Will
46 Mark Baguley Won't

25 Ariel Steinberg Won't
36 Lauchlan Dalgleish Won't
45 Hal Hunter Won't
47 Cory Dell'Olio Will

 

[vast]

1 Michael HibberdWill
2 Tom Bellchambers Will
3 Scott Gumbleton Won't
4 Jobe Watson Will
5 Brent Stanton Will
6 Joe Daniher Will
7 Leroy Jetta Won't
8 Jason Winderlich Won't
9 Brendon Goddard Will
10 Nick O'Brien Will
11 David Zaharakis Will
12 Stewart Crameri Will
14 Jason Ashby Won't
15 Courtenay Dempsey Will
16 Tayte Pears Will
17 Jake Melksham Will
18 Michael Hurley Will
19 David Hille Will
20 Jackson Merrett Will
21 Dyson Heppell Will
22 Jake Carlisle Will
23 David Myers Wont
24 Alex Browne Will
26 Cale Hooker Wont
27 Luke Davis Will
28 Elliott Kavanagh Will
29 Alwyn Davey Will
30 Paddy Ryder Will
31 Dustin Fletcher Will
32 Travis Colyer Won't
33 Dylan Van Unen Won't
34 Kyle Hardingham Will
35 Martin Gleeson Will
37 Sean Gregory Wont
38 Nicholas Kommer Won't
39 Heath Hocking Will
40 Ben Howlett Will
41 Will Hams Won't
42 Nathan Lovett-Murray Will
46 Mark Baguley Won't

25 Ariel Steinberg Won't
36 Lauchlan Dalgleish Will
45 Hal Hunter Won't
47 Cory Dell'Olio Wont

 

[zackah]

10 Nick O'Brien Won't
45 Hal Hunter Won't

 

[Yoda_]

thanks for the template Kong

Few people will be hanging on my assesment and will hang me out to dry if I'm wrong on ANY prediction.

Here goes though

1 Michael Hibberd YES
2 Tom Bellchambers YES
3 Scott Gumbleton NO
4 Jobe Watson YES
5 Brent Stanton YES
7 Leroy Jetta YES
8 Jason Winderlich YES
9 Brendon Goddard YES
10 Nick O'Brien YES
11 David Zaharakis YES
12 Stewart Crameri YES
15 Courtenay Dempsey YES
16 Tayte Pears NO
17 Jake Melksham NO
18 Michael Hurley YES
19 David Hille YES
20 Jackson Merrett NO
21 Dyson Heppell YES
22 Jake Carlisle YES
23 David Myers NO
24 Alex Browne YES
26 Cale Hooker YES
27 Luke Davis NO
28 Elliott Kavanagh YES
29 Alwyn Davey YES
30 Paddy Ryder YES
31 Dustin Fletcher YES
32 Travis Colyer NO
34 Kyle Hardingham NO
39 Heath Hocking NO
40 Ben Howlett YES
42 Nathan Lovett-Murray YES
46 Mark Baugley NO

25 Ariel Steinberg NO
36 Lauchlan Dalgleish NO
45 Hal Hunter NO
47 Cory Dell'Olio NO

No grey area on my list, have given a definite Yes/No on all players who have been on our list for at least 12 months.

 

[lamaros]

26 Cale Hooker YES

You missed a scapegoat Yoda_!

 

[doug85]

You for real with the Heath Hocking won't make it?

 

[monty1104]

1 Michael Hibberd Will
2 Tom Bellchambers Will
3 Scott Gumbleton Wont
4 Jobe Watson Will
5 Brent Stanton Will
6 Joe Daniher Will
7 Leroy Jetta Wont
8 Jason Winderlich Wont
9 Brendon Goddard Will
10 Nick O'Brien Will
11 David Zaharakis Will
12 Stewart Crameri Will
14 Jason Ashby Wont
15 Courtenay Dempsey Wont
16 Tayte Pears Will
17 Jake Melksham Will
18 Michael Hurley Will
19 David Hille Will
20 Jackson Merrett Wont
21 Dyson Heppell Will
22 Jake Carlisle Will
23 David Myers Wont
24 Alex Browne Will
26 Cale Hooker Wont
27 Luke Davis Will
28 Elliott Kavanagh Wont
29 Alwyn Davey Wont
30 Paddy Ryder Will
31 Dustin Fletcher Will
32 Travis Colyer Wont
33 Dylan Van Unen Wont
34 Kyle Hardingham Wont
35 Martin Gleeson Will
37 Sean Gregory Wont
38 Nicholas Kommer Will
39 Heath Hocking Wont
40 Ben Howlett Will
41 Will Hams Wont
42 Nathan Lovett-Murray Will
46 Mark Baguley Wont

25 Ariel Steinberg Wont
36 Lauchlan Dalgleish Wont
45 Hal Hunter Wont
47 Cory Dell'Olio Wont

I think for me, Hocking was the toughest call. He is in a similar boat to NLM I feel in that they are average players, making the most of their ability. NLM has just been around that little bit longer to make the most of it, whereas I think Hocking will be pushed out by year's end, and will be remembered as a guy who tried his hardest but never quite made it. Gumby, Winderlich and Myers will all have their careers cut short by injury IMO. All have the talent, but none have the body.

 

[Yoda_]

You for real with the Heath Hocking won't make it?

To play 80 games already, your probably right there doug85..

 

[Yoda_]

You missed a scapegoat Yoda_!

Guess i should have realised

Essendon 2013 Scapegoat changes

Out: Henry Slattery

In: Cale Hooker

 

[yaco55]

1 Michael Hibberd - Yes
2 Tom Bellchambers - Yes
3 Scott Gumbleton - No
4 Jobe Watson - Yes
5 Brent Stanton - yes
6 Joe Daniher - Yes
7 Leroy Jetta - Yes
8 Jason Winderlich Yes
9 Brendon Goddard - Yes
10 Nick O'Brien - Yes
11 David Zaharakis - Yes
12 Stewart Crameri - Yes
14 Jason Ashby - No
15 Courtenay Dempsey Yes
16 Tayte Pears - Yes
17 Jake Melksham - No
18 Michael Hurley - Yes
19 David Hille - Yes
20 Jackson Merrett - Yes
21 Dyson Heppell - Yes
22 Jake Carlisle - Yes
23 David Myers - No
24 Alex Browne - Yes
26 Cale Hooker - Yes
27 Luke Davis - No
28 Elliott Kavanagh - Yes
29 Alwyn Davey - Yes
30 Paddy Ryder - Yes
31 Dustin Fletcher - Yes
32 Travis Colyer - No
33 Dylan Van Unen - No
34 Kyle Hardingham - Yes
35 Martin Gleeson - Yes
37 Sean Gregory - Yes
38 Nicholas Kommer - No
39 Heath Hocking - Yes
40 Ben Howlett - Yes
41 Will Hams - Yes
42 Nathan Lovett-Murray - Yes
46 Mark Baguley - Yes

25 Ariel Steinberg - No
36 Lauchlan Dalgleish - No
45 Hal Hunter No
47 Cory Dell'Olio No

Hard to assess players that I haven't seen play, but I did my best.

 

[Yoda_]

Hard to assess players that I haven't seen play, but I did my best.

I left off first year rookies from the list! Would be merely guessing with our later picks (Gregory, Gleeson etc.)

 

[Rack Watts]

1 Michael Hibberd
2 Tom Bellchambers
3 Scott Gumbleton
4 Jobe Watson
5 Brent Stanton
6 Joe Daniher
7 Leroy Jetta
8 Jason Winderlich
9 Brendon Goddard
10 Nick O'Brien
11 David Zaharakis
12 Stewart Crameri
14 Jason Ashby
15 Courtenay Dempsey
16 Tayte Pears
17 Jake Melksham
18 Michael Hurley
19 David Hille
20 Jackson Merrett
21 Dyson Heppell
22 Jake Carlisle
23 David Myers
24 Alex Browne
26 Cale Hooker
27 Luke Davis
28 Elliott Kavanagh
29 Alwyn Davey
30 Paddy Ryder
31 Dustin Fletcher
32 Travis Colyer
33 Dylan Van Unen
34 Kyle Hardingham
35 Martin Gleeson
37 Sean Gregory
38 Nicholas Kommer
39 Heath Hocking
40 Ben Howlett
41 Will Hams
42 Nathan Lovett-Murray
46 Mark Baguley

25 Ariel Steinberg
36 Lauchlan Dalgleish
45 Hal Hunter
47 Cory Dell'Olio

Green is future AA.
Gold is 200 gamers.
Red is 100 gamers and those that have already made it.
Black won't make it.
Pink is Brownlow.

 

[Yoda_]

4 Jobe Watson Will

Green is future AA.
Gold is 200 gamers.
Red is 100 gamers and those that have already made it.
Black won't make it.
Pink is Brownlow.

Jobe better gtfo then

#peptidegate #cheat #ifcarltoncancheatsocanwe









(edit: he won the Chaos last year BpB - unusual for you to slip up on that )

 

[lamaros]

I bet you $200000000000000000000 Cory Dell'Olio won't play 200 AFL games. He won't even play 50.

 

[lamaros]

Green is future AA.
Gold is 200 gamers.
Red is 100 gamers and those that have already made it.
Black won't make it.
Pink is Brownlow.

Fletch has been AA already.

Howlett is 24 and has played 57 games. He would need to play 20 games a season until he is 31-32 to play 200 games. Quite unlikely...

 

[The Bomb]

RED WILL
BLACK WONT
1 Michael Hibberd
2 Tom Bellchambers
3 Scott Gumbleton
4 Jobe Watson
5 Brent Stanton
6 Joe Daniher
7 Leroy Jetta
9 Brendon Goddard
10 Nick O'Brien
11 David Zaharakis
12 Stewart Crameri
14 Jason Ashby
15 Courtenay Dempsey
16 Tayte Pears
17 Jake Melksham
18 Michael Hurley
20 Jackson Merrett
21 Dyson Heppell
22 Jake Carlisle
23 David Myers
24 Alex Browne
26 Cale Hooker
27 Luke Davis
28 Elliott Kavanagh
29 Alwyn Davey
30 Paddy Ryder
32 Travis Colyer
33 Dylan Van Unen
34 Kyle Hardingham
35 Martin Gleeson
37 Sean Gregory
38 Nicholas Kommer
39 Heath Hocking
40 Ben Howlett 41 Will Hams (his name decided for me)
46 Mark Baguley

25 Ariel Steinberg
36 Lauchlan Dalgleish
45 Hal Hunter
47 Cory Dell'Olio

At the End
8 Jason Winderlich
19 David Hille
31 Dustin Fletcher
42 Nathan Lovett-Murray

 

[Rack Watts]

You're all bad people! You especially Yoda
This is what happens when I make a half arsed post.
I don't even like this career predicting thread stuff, Del could be the next Stevie Milne.

 

[Yoda_]

You're all bad people! You especially Yoda
This is what happens when I make a half arsed post.
I don't even like this career predicting thread stuff, Del could be the next Stevie Milne.

T'was all tongue in cheek on my behalf
Guess BigFooty is all about howling someone down to make ones self feel better