Exotic Punting to a market HELP

Oaksnaf

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Thread starter #1
The Harville method can calculate the expected Exacta dividend based on your market.

For example:

a)$2.83 = 35.37%
b)$4.31 = 23.20%
c)$6.57 = 15.22%

a*b(1-a) = 12.70%


Is the correct formula for finding a trifecta dividend:

a*b*c(1-a-b) ??

And since my math fails me: can someone interpret the information from this page:

Type into google: Harville Method and select the TOP link. There is a little bit of reading, but the math in the example is beyond my comprehension.

Thankyou!
 

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Jan Juc

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#2
I've always thought it to be too tricky/unreliable to try to estimate quinella/exacta/trifecta dividends using win prices due to both coming from completely separate, and unrelated pools.

What bearing does a runner's win price have on it's chances to run second or third in a trifecta?

Do exactas pay double what quinellas pay? And when they do/don't, why/why not?
 

Oaksnaf

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I've always thought it to be too tricky/unreliable to try to estimate quinella/exacta/trifecta dividends using win prices due to both coming from completely separate, and unrelated pools.

What bearing does a runner's win price have on it's chances to run second or third in a trifecta?

Do exactas pay double what quinellas pay? And when they do/don't, why/why not?
The market is based on the performance of the animal and the situation that they are in. We are not chosing the BEST animal. Nor are we putting them in order from BEST to WORST to try and find OVERS. We are handicapping the event.

To know that we are accurately handicapping we should select the most winners from our top rater.

Something like this:

Top selection maybe 30% winners.
2nd selection maybe 20%
3rd 16%
4th 12%
5th 10%
6th 6%
7th 4%
8th 2%


Realistically we are predicting the way the event will unfold.

#1 will finish 1 length in front of #2. And that is worked into the market. #3 will finish 4 lengths behind #2...... so that means that the #1 will shorten because #3 is going to finish further behind #2.


If we have an accurate market and we have a strong S/R. Then there is no reason why we can't have a strong S/R in exacta's for our leading combinations.


How we bet our exacta's should depend on our market. Because we don't want to have the SAME amount of $$ on combination #1-2 each race especially since the markets will be different.

The only way to work out how much we should place on each exacta, is by calculating an expected dividend based on our markets. Welll that is what I think.



----------------------

As for exacta's paying double the quinella and what reasons are behind this. This something that I have been looking at over 1000s of races. The data has shown that the exacta does pay more than double quinella. Although that is not of any use to you unless you are betting on those races and those outcomes.

What we need to realise. Is that we need to bet according to our market and the only way we are going to win. Is if we find OVERS in our market. We are not trying to PREDICT starting prices of exacta prices. We are working out the likelyhood of an outcome based on our market. We need to return more than $100 per race based on our markets to indicate that we are good at handicapping for WIN bets. But there is no reason to suggest that we cannot aim to return $100 or more based on our exacta handicapping.

I've got a market for tonight:

Code:
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--2[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]12.70%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--3[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]8.33%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--4[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5.47%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--5[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3.59%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--6[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2.35%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.54%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.39%[/SIZE][/FONT]
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2--1[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]10.69%[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2---3[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4.60%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2---4[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3.02%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2--5[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.98%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2--6[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.30%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.85%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2---8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.77%[/SIZE][/FONT]
 
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--1[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6.35%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3---2[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4.17%[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--4[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.79%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--5[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.18%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--6[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.77%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.51%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.46%[/SIZE][/FONT]
 
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--1[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3.92%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--2[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2.58%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--3[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.69%[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--5[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.73%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--6[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.48%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.31%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.28%[/SIZE][/FONT]
 
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--1[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2.48%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--2[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.63%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--3[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.07%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--4[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.70%[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--6[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.30%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.20%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.18%[/SIZE][/FONT]
 
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--1[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.59%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--2[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.04%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--3[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.68%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--4[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.45%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--5[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.29%[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.13%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.11%[/SIZE][/FONT]
Our % = $ punting on that combination.

After 5000 races our S/R should be the same as the S/R we have it assessed at. But our prices should be higher. If we are good at handicapping that is.

There are a lot of things that I have to think about when it comes to punting to a market. And lets be honest, tipping and punting on tips is a lot easier.


I've gotten to the stage where I can trust my markets to be relatively accurate. We are returning $96 per race based on a 100% market. So we are we doing well. Over time that will improve. I hope.

Then the $$$ will start rolling in > ONLY IF we know how to accurately punt the market. Which is what I am trying to work out!!
 

Jan Juc

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#4
Four horse race - A, B, C and D.

Win prices (tote) as follows:

A - 1.40
B - 6.00
C - 8.00
D - 16.00

Any formula in the world can give you the "expected odds" or payout for the twelve exacta combinations, or you can use your own ratings to come up with "your" true odds.

But until you know exactly how the exacta pool is made up (30% of all monies on CD, 25% of all monies on DC etc. and relatively little on the AB combo as the win pool would suggest), you're just betting blindly into the pool.

What your ratings say it should pay / what the win pool says it might pay / what a formula says it could pay / what it does pay are four very separate things.


The only way to work out how much we should place on each exacta, is by calculating an expected dividend based on our markets. Welll that is what I think.

Your ratings for two similar races spit out the top two exactly the same, let's say 2.0 and 3.5 with the rest of the field filling a similar %age etc. One exacta pool is $500 (Kalgoorlie) and the other $20k (Flemington).

Do you bet the same exacta combinations for both races as your ratings suggest? Do you expect both dividends to be the same? Will there be overs/unders on each outcome?
 

Oaksnaf

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Interesting.

I don't understand the impact the size of the pool will have on my reasoning to have a bet on that race. I figuered that if I returned more than $100 per race on average in my exacta betting then I am beating the tote and most other punters. It's a simple answer, but probably not the right one when you break it down.... like you have even though just scratching the surface.

I don't have the ability to understand/know what the payout of a dividend is going to be. Nor do I have access to all these different permutations that apparantly others have access to, and hence how they can lock in an edge in jackpot races where the payout is more than the pool.


So where do I start? Pain-staking data recording based on my markets to see whether I am good at handicapping in not only the WIN department but the EXACTA department.

Or do I need to start somewhere else. Explore and understand what is and what can be a profitable betting race. Normally those races are where my handicapping provides OVERS. And only then can we bet.


Most of this is confusing to me as there are so many things that I have 0 understanding of. I hope to slowly learn these things from the right people.
 
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#6
If you're punting in a TAB outlet, SKYtext screen 623 shows the next race to jump prices for the top 20(?) quin and exacta payouts. and each meeting has their own as well. Melbourne's normal screen is 601 and the exoctic screen is 651 so whatever number the meeting screen is on add 50 and it will show the quin/exacta approx's and the running double/daily double/quad approx for the meeting.
 

Oaksnaf

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Thread starter #7
If you're punting in a TAB outlet, SKYtext screen 623 shows the next race to jump prices for the top 20(?) quin and exacta payouts. and each meeting has their own as well. Melbourne's normal screen is 601 and the exoctic screen is 651 so whatever number the meeting screen is on add 50 and it will show the quin/exacta approx's and the running double/daily double/quad approx for the meeting.
Yes that is correct. Although they are severly behind and the odds change incredibly after the race has jumped. Predicting or assuming that the final price of the dividend is that of when the race closes isn't a viable punting option.
 

Jan Juc

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#9
FYI - The above link is taken directly from one of Don Scott's books - if my memory serves me correctly it's the one with the green cover, Winning in the 90's (??)
 

Oaksnaf

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Thread starter #10
http://74.125.153.132/search?q=cach...ating+trifecta+odds&cd=16&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

Not sure if this what youre looking for,like all the maths theories it takes a few reads

seth
I couldn't follow how they got from :::3 X 11 X 10 = 81.5-1

Does this represent something similar to trifecta dividends?

=SUMPRODUCT(C16*C17*C18/(1-C16-C17))


C16 = 1st selection % of winning
C17 = 2nd selection % of winning
C18 = 3rd selection % of winning

So if:::
C16 = 40% ($2.50)
C17 = 20% ($5.00)
C18 = 10% ($10.00)


Does this mean we can expect a dividend of $50??



Thanks for the link seth!
 
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