I've always thought it to be too tricky/unreliable to try to estimate quinella/exacta/trifecta dividends using win prices due to both coming from completely separate, and unrelated pools.
What bearing does a runner's win price have on it's chances to run second or third in a trifecta?
Do exactas pay double what quinellas pay? And when they do/don't, why/why not?
The market is based on the performance of the animal and the situation that they are in. We are not chosing the BEST animal. Nor are we putting them in order from BEST to WORST to try and find OVERS. We are handicapping the event.
To know that we are accurately handicapping we should select the most winners from our top rater.
Something like this:
Top selection maybe 30% winners.
2nd selection maybe 20%
3rd 16%
4th 12%
5th 10%
6th 6%
7th 4%
8th 2%
Realistically we are predicting the way the event will unfold.
#1 will finish 1 length in front of #2. And that is worked into the market. #3 will finish 4 lengths behind #2...... so that means that the #1 will shorten because #3 is going to finish further behind #2.
If we have an accurate market and we have a strong S/R. Then there is no reason why we can't have a strong S/R in exacta's for our leading combinations.
How we bet our exacta's should depend on our market. Because we don't want to have the SAME amount of $$ on combination #1-2 each race especially since the markets will be different.
The only way to work out how much we should place on each exacta, is by calculating an expected dividend based on our markets. Welll that is what I think.
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As for exacta's paying double the quinella and what reasons are behind this. This something that I have been looking at over 1000s of races. The data has shown that the exacta does pay more than double quinella. Although that is not of any use to you unless you are betting on those races and those outcomes.
What we need to realise. Is that we need to bet according to our market and the only way we are going to win. Is if we find OVERS in our market. We are not trying to PREDICT starting prices of exacta prices. We are working out the likelyhood of an outcome based on our market. We need to return more than $100 per race based on our markets to indicate that we are good at handicapping for WIN bets. But there is no reason to suggest that we cannot aim to return $100 or more based on our exacta handicapping.
I've got a market for tonight:
Code:
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--2[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]12.70%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--3[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]8.33%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--4[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5.47%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--5[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3.59%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--6[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2.35%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.54%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1--8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.39%[/SIZE][/FONT]
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2--1[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]10.69%[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2---3[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4.60%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2---4[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3.02%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2--5[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.98%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2--6[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.30%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.85%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2---8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.77%[/SIZE][/FONT]
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--1[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6.35%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3---2[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4.17%[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--4[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.79%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--5[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.18%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--6[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.77%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.51%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3--8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.46%[/SIZE][/FONT]
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--1[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]3.92%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--2[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2.58%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--3[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.69%[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--5[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.73%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--6[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.48%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.31%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]4--8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.28%[/SIZE][/FONT]
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--1[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]2.48%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--2[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.63%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--3[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.07%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--4[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.70%[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--6[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.30%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.20%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]5--8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.18%[/SIZE][/FONT]
[B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--1[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.59%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--2[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]1.04%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--3[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.68%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--4[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.45%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--5[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.29%[/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2][/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--7[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.13%[/SIZE][/FONT][B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]6--8[/SIZE][/FONT][/B][FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]0.11%[/SIZE][/FONT]
Our % = $ punting on that combination.
After 5000 races our S/R should be the same as the S/R we have it assessed at. But our prices should be higher. If we are good at handicapping that is.
There are a lot of things that I have to think about when it comes to punting to a market. And lets be honest, tipping and punting on tips is a lot easier.
I've gotten to the stage where I can trust my markets to be relatively accurate. We are returning $96 per race based on a 100% market. So we are we doing well. Over time that will improve. I hope.
Then the $$$ will start rolling in > ONLY IF we know how to accurately punt the market. Which is what I am trying to work out!!