Expectations and predictions for 2018

[freoextra]

An experienced team? Are you thinking no Logue or Darcy? Cox, Ryan no chance? Blakely going to have to earn his stripes in the wafl?

I think because of the number of new players we have seen that we have become a bit blinkered about how many new players we have running around. I agree with you that Brayshaw looms as the only potential debutant, but prefer him to be held back for 5 or so games.

Plus the fact that we will also have significant personnel changes in Wilson and Matera.

I mean a relatively experienced team based on what we have left after 22 changes in two years. Touch wood we will have basically everyone available for round one (can only think of Bennell as no chance of being available).

So, Blakely and Ryan play round one, but Darcy (Sandi) Cox (Tabs, Kersten, McCarthy) and Logue (Johnson, Spurr, Wilson) are no certainties.

 

[M_rash]

Absolutely.

Height: Barely 2 foot 6.
Skills: Can't kick 10m.
Vertical leap: Virtually no-existent.
2km time trial: Has to have a two hour nap midway through.
Other: Cries out for his mummy everytime Sandi pulls a face.

Hasn’t even got a ball drop yet! Shits himself in the contest, and on the bench, and whilst sleeping, and well, just all the time in general.

 

[theGav56]

Hasn’t even got a ball drop yet! Shits himself in the contest, and on the bench, and whilst sleeping, and well, just all the time in general.

He sucks.

 

[FreoMonocle]

Sure , Louge could be an excellent player for us but any comparisons you want to make with Cox should factor in how hard it is to play CHF in the AFL

Not sure I agree with the whole defence is easy but it's hard to play key positions up forward thing.

Do something wrong in defence and you'll pay for it, if you weren't assisted by the team (team defence) you'll also pay for it. As a forward, do something right twice in 2 hours and it's 2 goals and your on the way to being in the top 12 of 2017's coleman medal list.

 

[blue shark]

I mean a relatively experienced team based on what we have left after 22 changes in two years. Touch wood we will have basically everyone available for round one (can only think of Bennell as no chance of being available).

So, Blakely and Ryan play round one, but Darcy (Sandi) Cox (Tabs, Kersten, McCarthy) and Logue (Johnson, Spurr, Wilson) are no certainties.

I think most of us on here would be happy to see Ross change up the teams when warranted.
But another year like 2015, watching us peak too early, and then hoping we can hang on in the end
is just death by a thousands cuts.
Certain players out of form, others needing a rest then injury, thinking we had an ace to play.
Ross really needs to work on building a greater depth of player available, the quality of the bottom
six, and the perception of him being predictable.
If he can learn or make subtle changes most of our deficiencies will improve, maybe not this year, but
like the Bulldogs, Tigers, a rapid rise could occur.

 

[Rion]

Reckon we’ll end up 11th/12th. Midfield will hopefully convert their on-paper strength to more actual dominance and the defence with Wilson/Logue/Ryan might be able to actually exit our 50 without forcing a stoppage or turning it over.

Ultimately though our forward line is just trash. Reckon McCarthy will improve to about 40 goals but the rest...

 

[blue shark]

Reckon we’ll end up 11th/12th. Midfield will hopefully convert their on-paper strength to more actual dominance and the defence with Wilson/Logue/Ryan might be able to actually exit our 50 without forcing a stoppage or turning it over.

Ultimately though our forward line is just trash. Reckon McCarthy will improve to about 40 goals but the rest...

For me Matera is the key, could kick 40 a season, our 2013 was built around Balla, Walters, Mayne, with cameos
from the Talls.
But they all brought pressure, kept the ball inside 50, and they took their chances to goal.
Our strength is in this area with the young recruits able to be introduced slowly forward, surrounded by the Mundy's,
Fyfes of the team.

 

[Rion]

For me Matera is the key, could kick 40 a season, our 2013 was built around Balla, Walters, Mayne, with cameos
from the Talls.
But they all brought pressure, kept the ball inside 50, and they took their chances to goal.
Our strength is in this area with the young recruits able to be introduced slowly forward, surrounded by the Mundy's,
Fyfes of the team.

Yeah I do like the look of Matera. Don’t know how he is defensively but does have a good goal sense.

Gonna be interesting to see how the youngsters that pushed into the defensive half forward role go. Don’t think they will be anywhere near the output we got from those 3 in 2013.

 

[Joao]

Yeah I do like the look of Matera. Don’t know how he is defensively but does have a good goal sense.

Gonna be interesting to see how the youngsters that pushed into the defensive half forward role go. Don’t think they will be anywhere near the output we got from those 3 in 2013.

Pressure is Switto's strength isnt it? I think he will find his way in at some stage. Especially with Sonny in the mids more.

Ballas - Matera - Switto could work.

 

[Quazar]

In reality it's hard to know what to expect isn't it? We were so poor in 2016 - and yet so crippled with injuries, that it seems aeons ago. Banished to the cobwebbed archives of forgettable memory!

I thought last year, considering some more injuries at critical times - we did better than I expected, especially once the 'kids' started getting games. Logue, Cox, Darce, Nyhuis, Ryan (etc etc) - all impressed at some point - especially Darcy on debut. Nyhuis' debut was also a beaut. We played in some white knuckle games, the Geelong game was especially thrilling and one we should have won. Although the Tigers whopped us in Round 22, for the first quarter we dominated and had the ball about 90% in their half for the first 10 or so mins......plus Bennell DID return! He wasn't supposed to play ever again according to Sheehan and a few other miserable souls. It was sporadic, but there were better moments in season 2017 than the previous year by a country mile.

I hope we continue this trend of getting game time into young guns and seeing what they've got. If you don't play them, we don't have a chance to see.

I think if we finished anywhere above 12th, the season can be considered successful [to a degree]. I'm not convinced we'll play Finals, but I'm always optimistic. Everyone starts on 0 points come Round 1...tough fixture up first, but as good a time to play Port when no teams have prior form. If we can catch 'em cold on the day - we have a chance. They may have a few injury concerns, but all clubs carry that baggage.

I hope we see more attacking flair, goals - and if we're going to lose, of course less 'thumpings'. No 100 point losses etc.....

Of course, I hope for these things every year irregardless. I am quietly confident we can rise a fair bit this year, but circumstances are going to have to favour us and a bit of good fortune with the squad/injuries is critical. If we can get some form of cohesion happening early, who knows....if we make to to Finals but get eliminated straight up, I'll take that...I'd be stoked to get into Finals, as it would show massive improvement/progression, but the downside is do we want another 'high' First Round pick in the draft? Personally I want Ladder Ascension above and beyond all else. Good luck the boys - I'll be rooting or you as per the norm!

 

[Docker82]

Can’t see us going in with Walters, Ballantyne, Matera and another sub-180cm small forward tbh. We could do with a mid-sized forward or two. Harley Bennell should be that man but unfortunately isn’t at this stage. Mundy and Fyfe can play up there too.

Matera, Switkowski and Giro have clearly been recruited with Ballantyne’s retirement in mind but Ballantyne isn’t finished yet. With Walters in the middle and Crozier out the door they may be room for two of these guys post Ballantyne but only three if there’s big midfield minutes being contributed by one of them.

 

[Purpletown]

Charlie Dixon to win the Coleman. I thought he was one of the most impressive players during the finals and showed some real urgency and drive from start to finish. For a guy who has had to carry the tag of having all the skills but lacking in the application side of his game he could be about to get it all together at last.

Freo to finish 9th to 12th range but limit the number of 100 point floggings. Bad games can happen to any team so there will be games where we will look and play ordinary.

 

[Joao]

Can’t see us going in with Walters, Ballantyne, Matera and another sub-180cm small forward tbh. We could do with a mid-sized forward or two. Harley Bennell should be that man but unfortunately isn’t at this stage. Mundy and Fyfe can play up there too.

Matera, Switkowski and Giro have clearly been recruited with Ballantyne’s retirement in mind but Ballantyne isn’t finished yet. With Walters in the middle and Crozier out the door they may be room for two of these guys post Ballantyne but only three if there’s big midfield minutes being contributed by one of them.

Giro is a midfielder. He may play a bit of forward but he is definitely a midfielder. Racks the ball up.

Switto is definitely Ballas ideal replacement. His VFL pressure was elite.

 

[Docker82]

Giro is a midfielder. He may play a bit of forward but he is definitely a midfielder. Racks the ball up.

Switto is definitely Ballas ideal replacement. His VFL pressure was elite.

Hence the last sentence of the post you quoted. I certainly wasn’t talking about Switkowski or Matera playing big midfield minutes. Problem is he’ll probably be up against Bennell, Walters, Brayshaw, Cerra, Crowden, North etc for that role. If we can still find a spot for him he’s done really well.

 

[Joao]

Hence the last sentence of the post you quoted. I certainly wasn’t talking about Switkowski or Matera playing big midfield minutes. Problem is he’ll probably be up against Bennell, Walters, Brayshaw, Cerra, Crowden, North etc for that role. If we can still find a spot for him he’s done really well.

Ah ok, must have misunderstood. Seems we fundamentally agree.

The way I see it is:
Matera is really Sonny's forward replacement for now (Sonny is now more mid than forward)
Switto is Ballas for the future

Giro is part of the recruiting depth for the midfield and I think he and Crowden may get forward minutes during their development.

 

[theGav56]

Ah ok, must have misunderstood. Seems we fundamentally agree.

The way I see it is:
Matera is really Sonny's forward replacement for now (Sonny is now more mid than forward)
Switto is Ballas for the future

Giro is part of the recruiting depth for the midfield and I think he and Crowden may get forward minutes during their development.

I don't think it is useful to pigeon hole young players too much. Purely in terms of Ballas replacement either one of those players could step up, and my suspicion is that Crowden could be the better, but who knows. For sure he will struggle to get into the midfield.

 

[Joao]

I don't think it is useful to pigeon hole young players too much. Purely in terms of Ballas replacement either one of those players could step up, and my suspicion is that Crowden could be the better, but who knows. For sure he will struggle to get into the midfield.

Generally I guess that is true but I'll be very surprised if Switto is anything more than a small forward who maybe pinch hits.

The two small SA boys probably have more scope for development in other positions but I'll be surprised if they don't both end up as midfielders if they make the grade.

 

[freoextra]

In reality it's hard to know what to expect isn't it? We were so poor in 2016 - and yet so crippled with injuries, that it seems aeons ago. Banished to the cobwebbed archives of forgettable memory!

I thought last year, considering some more injuries at critical times - we did better than I expected, especially once the 'kids' started getting games. Logue, Cox, Darce, Nyhuis, Ryan (etc etc) - all impressed at some point - especially Darcy on debut. Nyhuis' debut was also a beaut. We played in some white knuckle games, the Geelong game was especially thrilling and one we should have won. Although the Tigers whopped us in Round 22, for the first quarter we dominated and had the ball about 90% in their half for the first 10 or so mins......plus Bennell DID return! He wasn't supposed to play ever again according to Sheehan and a few other miserable souls. It was sporadic, but there were better moments in season 2017 than the previous year by a country mile.

I hope we continue this trend of getting game time into young guns and seeing what they've got. If you don't play them, we don't have a chance to see.

I think if we finished anywhere above 12th, the season can be considered successful [to a degree]. I'm not convinced we'll play Finals, but I'm always optimistic. Everyone starts on 0 points come Round 1...tough fixture up first, but as good a time to play Port when no teams have prior form. If we can catch 'em cold on the day - we have a chance. They may have a few injury concerns, but all clubs carry that baggage.

I hope we see more attacking flair, goals - and if we're going to lose, of course less 'thumpings'. No 100 point losses etc.....

Of course, I hope for these things every year irregardless. I am quietly confident we can rise a fair bit this year, but circumstances are going to have to favour us and a bit of good fortune with the squad/injuries is critical. If we can get some form of cohesion happening early, who knows....if we make to to Finals but get eliminated straight up, I'll take that...I'd be stoked to get into Finals, as it would show massive improvement/progression, but the downside is do we want another 'high' First Round pick in the draft? Personally I want Ladder Ascension above and beyond all else. Good luck the boys - I'll be rooting or you as per the norm!

Great post, agree with your points and I am also an eternal optimist and you should contribute more often!!

Whatever the result, I think it is important that I point out that I got into the supporters club and therefore will be drinking full strength beers at the new Stadium restaurants and will be comfortably numb come game time.

 

[Quazar]

Great post, agree with your points and I am also an eternal optimist and you should contribute more often!!

Whatever the result, I think it is important that I point out that I got into the supporters club and therefore will be drinking full strength beers at the new Stadium restaurants and will be comfortably numb come game time.

Yeah thanks mate - there's probably 2 main reasons why I haven't 'contributed' much since joining

1) I'm really lazy as a general rule. I don't mind reading the odd thing, but signing in and having to type?! Well, that requires effort and some form of mental inducement....

2) I actually, in more serious tones, haven't been in a great head space until about late Jan/Feb of this year. Lots of residue from previous 'things' and personal issues, which have since been resolved and ironed out - leaving me feeling a lot like my old self and a bit more 'community-minded' I suppose.

Which is why I can empathize so heavily with Harley Bennell and how difficult it must be going through what he has - not to excuse the dickheadness of certain incidents; but at least to understand that everyone carries baggage and problems and sometimes we just flat out hit a wall. And we need help, from time to time....

I feel rejuvenated and hopefully, so does this football club. And looking 'forward' now - not backwards or stuck in 2013/2015 etc.....but ready to embrace 2018 and see it shape and fashion into something, hopefully the platform for an exciting future for the Club

Enjoy your beers, just don't miss the important moments

 

[yyou]

Johnson, Ballas, Sandi, Mundy, Spurr, D Pearce, Johnson will show there age and will provide a lesser output this year.

Sheriden, Sutcliffe, Grey are not good enough to be best 22 and will dominate WAFL but disappoint when they play AFL. (Yes I know other people rate Grey, but his Skills are not good enough).

Bennell, Apeness will injured for most of the year and won't play 5 games of AFL between them.

At least 8 of the 11 players above will be delisted at the end of the year.

We will miss finals, but we will play finals in 2019.



Dixon will finish the year as our number 1 target, after Taberner plays the first 6 games for 6 goals (5 against Brisbane in 1 game).

If Tabs kicks 5 against Brisbane that will be a good effort as I reckon their young key defender (Andrews I think) is an. Absolute ripper

 

[Freomaniac]

In reality it's hard to know what to expect isn't it? We were so poor in 2016 - and yet so crippled with injuries, that it seems aeons ago. Banished to the cobwebbed archives of forgettable memory!

I thought last year, considering some more injuries at critical times - we did better than I expected, especially once the 'kids' started getting games. Logue, Cox, Darce, Nyhuis, Ryan (etc etc) - all impressed at some point - especially Darcy on debut. Nyhuis' debut was also a beaut. We played in some white knuckle games, the Geelong game was especially thrilling and one we should have won. Although the Tigers whopped us in Round 22, for the first quarter we dominated and had the ball about 90% in their half for the first 10 or so mins......plus Bennell DID return! He wasn't supposed to play ever again according to Sheehan and a few other miserable souls. It was sporadic, but there were better moments in season 2017 than the previous year by a country mile.

I hope we continue this trend of getting game time into young guns and seeing what they've got. If you don't play them, we don't have a chance to see.

I think if we finished anywhere above 12th, the season can be considered successful [to a degree]. I'm not convinced we'll play Finals, but I'm always optimistic. Everyone starts on 0 points come Round 1...tough fixture up first, but as good a time to play Port when no teams have prior form. If we can catch 'em cold on the day - we have a chance. They may have a few injury concerns, but all clubs carry that baggage.

I hope we see more attacking flair, goals - and if we're going to lose, of course less 'thumpings'. No 100 point losses etc.....

Of course, I hope for these things every year irregardless. I am quietly confident we can rise a fair bit this year, but circumstances are going to have to favour us and a bit of good fortune with the squad/injuries is critical. If we can get some form of cohesion happening early, who knows....if we make to to Finals but get eliminated straight up, I'll take that...I'd be stoked to get into Finals, as it would show massive improvement/progression, but the downside is do we want another 'high' First Round pick in the draft? Personally I want Ladder Ascension above and beyond all else. Good luck the boys - I'll be rooting or you as per the norm!

Good Post overall...

I look back at that Horror 2016 season, It was a fluke. It was murphy's law: All the possibilities of things going wrong did go all wrong. I look at our2016 squad and We all knew Freo were better than the 4 wins and 18 losses record we posted.

At the start of 2017, I predicted a 7 win season with 6 wins at home vs the likes of North, Carlton and Suns and 1 win away vs Brisbane. We ended up with 5 home wins. We got 3 away wins all under a goal too.

Its Weird what has been done in the last 2 years. In 2016, freo were averaging 73 points for and 96 Against and we got 4 wins. In 2017, Stats wise we were worse with 72 points for and 98 against. Yet we got 8 wins.

Yes we were averaging 10.12.72 a game. It was deceiving on how good or bad we really are in a way. Yes we kicked 6 goals vs the crows and lose by 100 points one week. Then we kick 13 goals against carlton at home and win by 6 goals the next week.

People didn't like freo losing by 100 points or more then that's fair enough. But here was the trade off.... Yes we lost to Port by 89 points, Crows by 100 points, Swans by 104 and Tigers by 104. On the other hand we grinded out 4 wins by under a goal vs Demons, Tigers and North twice.

In essence, Freos 2017 season was better than Freos 2016 Season on wins alone. Also Freo were more competitive in 2017 than 2016 just on all those matches Freo had last season.

 

[Freomaniac]

My Expectations for 2018: Freo to improve on the for and against when it comes to scoring. in 2016 we averaged 73 for and 96 against. In 2017 we averaged 72 for and 98 against. I am hoping in 2018 we improve slightly to 11.12.78 for and 13.12.90 against.

I expect an even spread of goal kickers. If Freo are going average 11 goals a game, 7 has to come from the forward line, 4 from the midfield.

7 goals times 22 equals 154. I can see a good spread of goals from 5 blokes.
Walters: 36 goals
McCarthy: 35 goals
Matera: 31 goals
Tabs: 30 goals
Kersten: 22 goals

That is achievable with our current forward line with the 6th forward as a rotating mid. Sadly I see Ballatyne being phased out as Matera takes his spot. I see Sandi being Managed like Pav. Sandi to play All 13 games in WA while Darcy to play 10-12 games. I see Guys like Apeness and Scott Jones fight for that spot as a ruck forward in the 2nd half of the season.

There will be debuts to 5-6 blokes getting 1-5 games each. I don't mind sticking to a Starting 21 and use that 22nd spot to rotate a 1st year player.

4 goals times 22 equals 88. As for the 88 goals, I see A good spread on that front too.

Fyfe:16 goals
Neale: 14 goals
Langdon: 14 goals

That's 44 goals from 3 goal scoring mids

Mundy: 10 goals
Brad Hill: 10 goals
Stephen Hill: 10 goals
Darcy: 5 goals
Sandi: 5 goals
Cox: 4 goals.

the last 44 goals can come from anyone. Cox can move up forward and kick a couple, so can nyhuis, Logue, Grey. This is without mentioning the guys who can get a debut game in 2018.

Brutally Honest. Sadly I will see Freo get 15-16th with 7 wins and 15 defeats or get 14th again with 8 wins and 14 defeats. Sandi, Johnson, Ballantyne and Even Mundy to get Slowly phased out. Danyle Pearce to retire the end of the season.

We have a brutal 1st 9 rounds. Sadly I see freo having 3 wins by round 9. Round 10 onwards opens up with a few winnable games especially at home. As we have North at home at round 10 and other winnable home games like Brisbane, Carlton and Collingwood.

I expect freo to pinch an away win or 2.

 

[theGav56]

Really interesting thread going on the main board, that focuses on home ground advantage. It is a good year for us, but we know that. Partly driven by the GCSs game.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/fixture-analysis-2018-home-ground-advantage.1187491/

 

[scon]

Expectation,prediction and selection:

 

[M_rash]

Write S.Hill off for the year. Proven he can’t play through injury. We’ll rush him back and whatever ails him will linger and we’ll head into 2019 hoping that maybe “this will be his year! The year he pulls it all together, consistently”. Hope I’m wrong, but I rarely am.