Expectations for 2026

[THE_GUN]

Deciding to post this was a bold choice

Better than some of the crap that gets posted and talked about. Sometimes you just have to put it up there for some feedback and see what others opinions are in relation to where the cap would sit

 

[Shogun]

Where do we finish on the Ladder :14th
How many wins are you expecting :7
How many wins would be the pass mark :6
Who will be our most improved player that has been there prior to this draft : MRJ
Who will be our leading goal kicker : Jonty
Which of the new kids drafted in 2025 will be the best performed : Grlj
How many games will Smillie play :9
Will LOTW get a perm ban: No, you all crave drama so he stays
Will Groupie give up his KFC addiction and go on a diet : Diet does f*** all. Need to change the lifestyle. Big commitment. Will it start? Probably. Will it stick? No

 

[captain cotch 9]

Where do we finish on the Ladder : 11th is the new 9th. 11thMond
How many wins are you expecting : 5-8
How many wins would be the pass mark : 6
Who will be our most improved player that has been there prior to this draft : Gibcus
Who will be our leading goal kicker : Hopefully Jonty or Harry
Which of the new kids drafted in 2025 will be the best performed : Gilj just because i think he will get a gig off the HBF
How many games will smillie play : 15 in the AFL and the rest in the 2's

 

[Rubber Hips]

Where do we finish on the Ladder : 10th

How many wins are you expecting : 8-9 *if low/ no injuries

How many wins would be the pass mark : 5

Who will be our most improved player that has been there prior to this draft : Tom Brown

Who will be our leading goal kicker : Tom Lunch…Will be back to near his best

Which of the new kids drafted in 2025 will be the best performed : Zane

How many games will smillie play : 4

Will LOTW get a perm ban : he shouldnt - LOTW shares his opinions…don’t always agree but I have no issue

Will Groupie give up his KFC addiction and go on a diet : Gropie has got everyone fooled…he is an Adonis
that lives by the motto, my body is my temple and only eats wholesome…satiating proper foods…a carnivore diet….lean meats ( cooked with precision for nutritional value) eggs, butter etc, drinks coconut water, trains daily…is absolutely ripped

 

[cairo tiger]

hoosiers!

 

[The Vaucluse]

Where do we finish on the Ladder : 14th

How many wins are you expecting : 6-8

How many wins would be the pass mark : 6

Who will be our most improved player that has been there prior to this draft : Seth Campbell

Who will be our leading goal kicker : Tom Lynch

Which of the new kids drafted in 2025 will be the best performed : Sam Cumming

How many games will smillie play : 10

Will LOTW get a perm ban : he shouldnt - LOTW shares his opinions…don’t always agree but I have no issue

Will Groupie give up his KFC addiction and go on a diet : Mike Moore & Groupie team up and do a documentary on the impact of eating KFC every day for 12 months has on someone’s health. Unfortunately, at the end of the documentary Groupie has not lost his addiction and to Mike Moore’s shock, Groupie is healthier than when he started the trial and has moved to Somerville to start working at Ingham’s on the Back Landing.

 

[ShereKhan]

We go into 2026 16th for age and 17th for experience. 9 x players with 100+ games and 29 x players under 50-games. Assuming Prestia, Broad and potentially Lynch finish up end of 2026, then in 2027 we will remain bottom-3 for age and experience.

It is from 2028 onwards where we will very quickly move up the age and experience ladder into a contending list profile - but until then we've got to be realistic and look at history, where super young and experienced lists generally finish bottom-4.

This is how I see the breakdown of the list:

2026: 9 x players 100+. 29 x players under 50-games. 16th for age and 16th for experience.

2027: 7 x players 100+. 28 under-50. 16th and 16th
(Ross gets to 100+...Lynch, Prestia and Broad out)

2028: 9 x players 100+. 27 under-50. 12th and 14th.
(Mansell & Miller added)

2029: 11 x players 100+. 22 under-50. 8th and 10th

It is 2029 where I see most of our elite youngsters starting with 50+ games under their belts, as they will hit that milestone in 2028. So I expect us to be highly competitive in 2028 and hopefully in the finals mix. I expect us to be contending from 2029 onwards when our list is mid-range for age and experience.

It's hard to defy history, so here is the bottom-4 each year over the last 5-years when looking at combined age and experience (ie. if 18th for age and 15th for experience, get a 'score' of 33), and their corresponding ladder position end of H&A:

2025:
Ess (31) 15th (6 wins)
Rich (33) 17th (5)
North (34) 16th (5)
WC (34) 18th (1)

2024:
WC (30) 16th (5)
Freo (32) 10th (12)
Hawks (33) 7th (14)
North (36) 17th (3)

2023:
Freo (30) 14th (10)
Adel (31) 10th (11)
Ess (32) 11th (11)
Hawks (36) 16th (7)

2022:
Ess (31) 15th (7)
North (31) 18th (2)
Hawks (31) 13th (8)
Adel (36) 14th (8)

2021:
North (31) 18th (4)
Ess (32) 8th (11)
GC (34) 16th (7)
Adel (34) 15th (7)


So the teams who were bottom-4 for age and experience:

Finish bottom-6: 15 of 20 = 75%
Middle-6: 5 of 20 = 25%
Top-6: 0 of 20 = 0%

And average number of wins for those 20 x teams = 7.2 wins / season

We will be bottom-4 for age and experience in 2026 and 2027 (and maybe 2028). It's nice to dream of finals and flags sooner rather than later, but reality is we likely won't be in finals contention until 2028, and flag contention from 2029 onwards at best.

 

[cairo tiger]

Where do we finish on the Ladder : last
How many wins are you expecting : 3
How many wins would be the pass mark : 6
Who will be our most improved player that has been there prior to this draft : mcaullfie
Who will be our leading goal kicker : armstrong
Which of the new kids drafted in 2025 will be the best performed : cumming
How many games will smillie play : 0
Will LOTW get a perm ban: maybe
Will Groupie give up his KFC addiction and go on a diet : no

 

[Morro]

Prove it

Bro why you wanna make more work for _RT_

 

[THE_GUN]

Bro why you wanna make more work for _RT_

Doesnt he also have access to the minions ?

 

[Coach_Required]

Where do we finish on the Ladder : 18th
How many wins are you expecting : 4 wins
How many wins would be the pass mark : 5 wins
Who will be our most improved player that has been there prior to this draft : Rioli
Who will be our leading goal kicker : Campbell
Which of the new kids drafted in 2025 will be the best performed : Cumming
How many games will Smillie play : 2

 

[4tune8]

We go into 2026 16th for age and 17th for experience. 9 x players with 100+ games and 29 x players under 50-games. Assuming Prestia, Broad and potentially Lynch finish up end of 2026, then in 2027 we will remain bottom-3 for age and experience.

It is from 2028 onwards where we will very quickly move up the age and experience ladder into a contending list profile - but until then we've got to be realistic and look at history, where super young and experienced lists generally finish bottom-4.

This is how I see the breakdown of the list:

2026: 9 x players 100+. 29 x players under 50-games. 16th for age and 16th for experience.

2027: 7 x players 100+. 28 under-50. 16th and 16th
(Ross gets to 100+...Lynch, Prestia and Broad out)

2028: 9 x players 100+. 27 under-50. 12th and 14th.
(Mansell & Miller added)

2029: 11 x players 100+. 22 under-50. 8th and 10th

It is 2029 where I see most of our elite youngsters starting with 50+ games under their belts, as they will hit that milestone in 2028. So I expect us to be highly competitive in 2028 and hopefully in the finals mix. I expect us to be contending from 2029 onwards when our list is mid-range for age and experience.

It's hard to defy history, so here is the bottom-4 each year over the last 5-years when looking at combined age and experience (ie. if 18th for age and 15th for experience, get a 'score' of 33), and their corresponding ladder position end of H&A:

2025:
Ess (31) 15th (6 wins)
Rich (33) 17th (5)
North (34) 16th (5)
WC (34) 18th (1)

2024:
WC (30) 16th (5)
Freo (32) 10th (12)
Hawks (33) 7th (14)
North (36) 17th (3)

2023:
Freo (30) 14th (10)
Adel (31) 10th (11)
Ess (32) 11th (11)
Hawks (36) 16th (7)

2022:
Ess (31) 15th (7)
North (31) 18th (2)
Hawks (31) 13th (8)
Adel (36) 14th (8)

2021:
North (31) 18th (4)
Ess (32) 8th (11)
GC (34) 16th (7)
Adel (34) 15th (7)


So the teams who were bottom-4 for age and experience:

Finish bottom-6: 15 of 20 = 75%
Middle-6: 5 of 20 = 25%
Top-6: 0 of 20 = 0%

And average number of wins for those 20 x teams = 7.2 wins / season

We will be bottom-4 for age and experience in 2026 and 2027 (and maybe 2028). It's nice to dream of finals and flags sooner rather than later, but reality is we likely won't be in finals contention until 2028, and flag contention from 2029 onwards at best.

It's an interesting way of looking at how things relate to teams in their prospective premiership windows, but with some notable outliers, in particular, Hawthorn in 2024 with a score of 33 finishing 7th. Freo was another the same year finishing 10th with a score of 32 and really should have played finals. GCS would be another outlier next year where they'll be 4th last with a score of 30 and I would suggest that most would have them finishing in the top 6.

 

[Coach_Required]

RICHMOND

Pass mark: Win eight games

The Tigers outperformed external expectations in Adem Yze’s second season, winning five games after some audaciously claimed they’d go winless.

It’s time to see if they can take the step with natural progression from their plethora of promising youngsters, with Sam Lalor, Jonty Faull and Taj Hotton at the forefront.

Josh Smillie’s development is crucial after a tough rookie season, while Luke Trainor, Harry Armstrong and Tom Sims will also be expected to take another step.

Key premiership veterans Toby Nankervis, Nick Vlastuin, Nathan Broad, Tom Lynch and Dion Prestia remain to guide those youngsters along, while coach Adem Yze has added two more years to his Tigers tenure.

And it’s not as if Richmond lost much this off-season, with Tylar Young’s trade departure arguably leaving the biggest hole — and a tolerable one at that. Adding a few more wins to this year’s tally is a reasonable target.

From GF-or-bust to starved finals contenders: Every AFL club’s early pass mark for 2026

GF-or-bust to starved finals contenders: Every AFL club’s early pass mark for 2026

www.foxsports.com.au

What a load of rubbish, 8 wins LOL

Good to see the media trying to pump up our tyres so when we don't meet their unrealistic expectations they can write a story on us.

 

[_RT_]

Bro why you wanna make more work for _RT_

 

[Dr Tigris]

Where do we finish on the Ladder : 14-16
How many wins are you expecting : 4 - 10
How many wins would be the pass mark : 5
Who will be our most improved player that has been there prior to this draft : Lalor/Hotton (Smillie is a cheap as he starts form effectively zero)
Who will be our leading goal kicker : Big Sexy
Which of the new kids drafted in 2025 will be the best performed : Grilj - he will get games and use his speed outside. (Cumming much harder to get a spot and succeed)
How many games will smillie play : 10
Will LOTW get a perm ban: Many ignores, but he is a bit like an insult comic version of Monty Python
Will Groupie give up his KFC addiction and go on a diet :

 

[DickieKnee]

What a load of rubbish, 8 wins LOL

Good to see the media trying to pump up our tyres so when we don't meet their unrealistic expectations they can write a story on us.

Bombers pass mark is win 10 games.

 

[Coach_Required]

Bombers pass mark is win 10 games.

Whoever wrote that article must have missed 2025 season.

 

[Wrenny]

4-6 wins.
Smillie debut.
Gibcus & McAuliffe 15+ games.
A second string ruck to step up.
Natural transition from starting Prestia, Short, Ralphsmith types by end of season.
2 locked in wingers for 2027 by the end of the season.
Plenty of games piled into our young talent.

 

[partycorolla]

Nothing left to read so lets look at something going into next year.
What are peoples expectation for the coming season 2026

Where do we finish on the Ladder : 13-17
How many wins are you expecting : 4-8
How many wins would be the pass mark : 3-6 (more interested in % though)
Who will be our most improved player that has been there prior to this draft: McAuliffe,
Who will be our leading goal kicker : Lynch but want Faull to be in our top 4 with Harry not too far behind
Which of the new kids drafted in 2025 will be the best performed : Cumming
How many games will smillie play : 16-18 (between VFL and AFL)
Will LOTW get a perm ban: Who cares. He's a welcher.
Will Groupie give up his KFC addiction and go on a diet : Please no... we need him just the way he is.

 

[Mr Unbelievable]

Where do we finish on the Ladder : 14
How many wins are you expecting : 8
How many wins would be the pass mark :6
Who will be our most improved player that has been there prior to this draft : Brown
Who will be our leading goal kicker : Lynchy
Which of the new kids drafted in 2025 will be the best performed : Cummings
How many games will smillie play : 11
Will LOTW get a perm ban No, he will be very funny in 2026
Will Groupie give up his KFC addiction and go on a diet : Groupie knows he can eat anything because a week in the dungeon will bring him back to good health.