Expectations for September

[MC Extra Dollop]

A dose of history says we will find it hard to win 4 straight finals - and win the Premiership.

Of course it has been done once before (Adelaide I believe has done this). So the possibility lingers.

It's not too dissimilar from the path that Brisbane (2003) and West Coast (2006) travelled to win the flag. Brisbane lost to Collingwood (MCG), then beat Adelaide (Gabba), Sydney (Homebush) and Collingwood (MCG); while West Coast lost to Sydney (Subiaco), then beat the Bulldogs (Subiaco), Adelaide (AAMI) and Sydney (MCG). Brisbane travelled three times and West Coast travelled twice and still got it done.

As much as anything, I'd say it's simply a case of the top four teams usually being better than the teams in 5-8, as it is the significant advantages received by finishing in the top four. This year (more than ever), there are obvious factors that suggest that the some of the teams in 1-4 may not be as good as some other teams below them.

 

[winty]

I'm convinced Collingwood and Hawthorn will both win in week one whether they play interstate or in Melbourne. Which would mean that if we beat whoever we play in week one, we're likely to travel to Sydney or Adelaide for a semi-final. Definitely winnable if we play like we have been. It would be an advantage to play Sydney at ANZ as well, they're nowhere near as formidable there as they are at the SCG.

I can see Collingwood going out in straight sets myself. Both their key forwards are woefully out of form, their defence is extremely suspect when isolated one on one and they seem overly reliant on Swan, Pendlebury, Beams and Sidebottom. In finals, that quartet won't be afforded as much space as they get during H&A games.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I'm convinced Collingwood and Hawthorn will both win in week one whether they play interstate or in Melbourne. Which would mean that if we beat whoever we play in week one, we're likely to travel to Sydney or Adelaide for a semi-final. Definitely winnable if we play like we have been. It would be an advantage to play Sydney at ANZ as well, they're nowhere near as formidable there as they are at the SCG.

If we're good enough to get to the third week, we'll almost certainly have to travel (at least once) at some stage anyway, so we might as well get it out of the way. I'd give us every chance of knocking off Sydney at ANZ.

 

[fpm84]

I can see Collingwood going out in straight sets myself. Both their key forwards are woefully out of form, their defence is extremely suspect when isolated one on one and they seem overly reliant on Swan, Pendlebury, Beams and Sidebottom. In finals, that quartet won't be afforded as much space as they get during H&A games.

Fair enough. They remind me a bit of us in 2009 - a bit over playing H&A games and waiting for the real stuff to start. In terms of pure talent, I think they're in the top 2-3 in the league. They may struggle against the Hawks in a final, but I can see them beating anybody else - including us if we dish up what we did against them this year.

The other thing to remember is that Collingwood is the best travelling side in the league - they've lost one game interstate since 2008, and it was against Brisbane (in Collingwood's premiership year), of all teams. If they play Sydney or Adelaide away in week one, I'll be extremely confident that they'll win.

 

[Strangled Cat]

I'm convinced Collingwood and Hawthorn will both win in week one whether they play interstate or in Melbourne. Which would mean that if we beat whoever we play in week one, we're likely to travel to Sydney or Adelaide for a semi-final. Definitely winnable if we play like we have been. It would be an advantage to play Sydney at ANZ as well, they're nowhere near as formidable there as they are at the SCG.

We owe those pricks a semi-final knockout! How awesome would it be to win our first final, travel to Sydney for a semi and knock them out, beat Collingwood in a Prelim and make it 3-1 our way, and finally knock the Cawks for 6 in the big dance and make it 2-2 for GF's. Where's the Devil when you need him, I want to make a deal...

 

[winty]

Fair enough. They remind me a bit of us in 2009 - a bit over playing H&A games and waiting for the real stuff to start. In terms of pure talent, I think they're in the top 2-3 in the league. They may struggle against the Hawks in a final, but I can see them beating anybody else - including us if we dish up what we did against them this year.

The other thing to remember is that Collingwood is the best travelling side in the league - they've lost one game interstate since 2008, and it was against Brisbane (in Collingwood's premiership year), of all teams. If they play Sydney or Adelaide away in week one, I'll be extremely confident that they'll win.

That stat sounds impressive, until you see who they've played interstate in that time:

2008
Lost to Brisbane by 2 points (Brisbane finished 10th)
Beat Sydney by 29 points (Sydney finished 6th)
Beat Port Adelaide by 31 points (Port finished 13th)
Lost to Fremantle by 24 points (Freo finished 14th)

2009
Beat Brisbane by 17 points (Brisbane finished 6th)
Beat West Coast by 22 points (West Coast finished 11th)
Beat Sydney by 23 points (Sydney finished 12th)
Beat Adelaide by 21 points (Adelaide finished 5th)

2010
Beat Fremantle by 36 points (Fremantle finished 6th)
Lost to Brisbane by 8 points (Brisbane finished 13th)
Beat Sydney by 25 points (Sydney finished 5th)
Beat Port Adelaide by 26 points (Port finished 10th)

2011
Beat Sydney by 6 points (Sydney finished 7th)
Beat Gold Coast by 54 points (Gold Coast finished 17th)
Beat Port Adelaide by 138 points (Port finished 16th)
Beat Fremantle by 80 points (Fremantle finished 11th)

2012
Beat Brisbane by 58 points (Currently 13th)
Beat Adelaide by 26 points (Currently 3rd)
Beat GWS by 120 points (Currently 18th)
Beat Sydney by 8 points (Currently 1st)

Apart from the Crows and Swans wins this year, you could use the argument that supporters use about our record at Simonds, in that the teams they've played interstate haven't been much.

 

[Strangled Cat]

It's not too dissimilar from the path that Brisbane (2003) and West Coast (2006) travelled to win the flag. Brisbane lost to Collingwood (MCG), then beat Adelaide (Gabba), Sydney (Homebush) and Collingwood (MCG); while West Coast lost to Sydney (Subiaco), then beat the Bulldogs (Subiaco), Adelaide (AAMI) and Sydney (MCG). Brisbane travelled three times and West Coast travelled twice and still got it done.

As much as anything, I'd say it's simply a case of the top four teams usually being better than the teams in 5-8, as it is the significant advantages received by finishing in the top four. This year (more than ever), there are obvious factors that suggest that the some of the teams in 1-4 may not be as good as some other teams below them.

If we got to swap Adelaide their two games against Port, GWS and Gold Coast for Collingwood, Sydney and Hawthorn it may have been a different ladder we'd be looking at. Adelaide beat Sydney who we didn't, but they also got pantsed by Hawthorn who we beat twice. It's fair to say that had we swapped draws we would be 2 games higher and they'd be 2 games lower which means almost certainly a top 4 finish from this point. It's all academic now, as I think we are good enough to win it in just about any position we finish in the 8.

 

[iameviljez]

We owe those pricks a semi-final knockout!

Don't agree. If we don't make it through, I definitely want the Swans to get up.

 

[Senatorguesty]

If we got to swap Adelaide their two games against Port, GWS and Gold Coast for Collingwood, Sydney and Hawthorn it may have been a different ladder we'd be looking at. Adelaide beat Sydney who we didn't, but they also got pantsed by Hawthorn who we beat twice. It's fair to say that had we swapped draws we would be 2 games higher and they'd be 2 games lower which means almost certainly a top 4 finish from this point. It's all academic now, as I think we are good enough to win it in just about any position we finish in the 8.

What cost us was our inability to win the close ones this year.
The freo game.
The pies game.
The Swans game.
The Eagles game.
All winnable. All would have us comfortably in the 8 and 2 of those wins would have us looking at a top 4 spot.
All we lost.

 

[iameviljez]

What cost us was our inability to win the close ones this year.
The freo game.
The pies game.
The Swans game.
The Eagles game.
All winnable. All would have us comfortably in the 8 and 2 of those wins would have us looking at a top 4 spot.
All we lost.

On the other hand,
Hawthorn
Richmond
Carlton
Hawthorn

Also, I wouldn't trade those two close Hawthorn wins for a week with a consensual Pulp Fiction-era Uma Thurman.

 

[SuperCats9]

A prelim final, i'm convinced we are good enough to get that far, but not good enough to reach the GF.

 

[Strangled Cat]

Don't agree. If we don't make it through, I definitely want the Swans to get up.

That's fine, but 2005 is still raw for me and hurt almost as much as 2008. I agree in that if we do not play Sydney I'd be happy for them to win the flag, but it would still be awesome to play them and knock them out straight sets in a semi in Sydney.

As long as Collingwood or Hawthorn don't win I could live with us not going back to back. I am not confident that if we don't win it someone other than those two will, I really think it's all or nothing and that qe must win the flag not just for ourselves, but so those two don't either.

 

[fpm84]

When you think about it, making the GF from outside the top 4 is no different to finishing top 4 and losing your first final. As others have pointed out, Sydney in 2005 and West Coast in 2006 both won the flag despite playing four finals. Hawthorn were so close to making the GF last year, and Collingwood almost knocked us off in 2007. Sure, it's harder to get there, but it can and has been done.

 

[Senatorguesty]

On the other hand,
Hawthorn
Richmond
Carlton
Hawthorn

Also, I wouldn't trade those two close Hawthorn wins for a week with a consensual Pulp Fiction-era Uma Thurman.

Still my point.
Last year we won all of those close ones.
even previous to this year we were known for winning the close ones yet this year we are 2/7 or so (I dont consider the Blues or Tigers games, wasnt that close and we were never going to lose those).

 

[SJ]

When you think about it, making the GF from outside the top 4 is no different to finishing top 4 and losing your first final. As others have pointed out, Sydney in 2005 and West Coast in 2006 both won the flag despite playing four finals. Hawthorn were so close to making the GF last year, and Collingwood almost knocked us off in 2007. Sure, it's harder to get there, but it can and has been done.

Except you don't get a home semi final.

 

[iameviljez]

That's fine, but 2005 is still raw for me and hurt almost as much as 2008.

Really? Whilst we should have won that game, we weren't anywhere near being the best team that year. That was probably West Coast.

 

[SuperCats9]

That's fine, but 2005 is still raw for me and hurt almost as much as 2008. I agree in that if we do not play Sydney I'd be happy for them to win the flag, but it would still be awesome to play them and knock them out straight sets in a semi in Sydney. As long as Collingwood or Hawthorn don't win I could live with us not going back. I am not confident that if we don't win it someone other than those two will, I really think it's all or nothing and that qe must win the flag not just for ourselves, but so those two don't either.

We are a slight chance of winning it again this year, but it is possible.

I'm with you though, having our record of 3 premierships in 5 years, then the possiblity Hawthorn could say they've won 2 in 4/5 years and Collingwood 2 in 2/3 years just doesn't sit well with me, not with the dominance we've had over the last 5-6 years.

 

[Senatorguesty]

Really? Whilst we should have won that game, we weren't anywhere near being the best team that year. That was probably West Coast.

And we would have been pantsed the following week anyway.

 

[Strangled Cat]

Really? Whilst we should have won that game, we weren't anywhere near being the best team that year. That was probably West Coast.

We weren't the best team in 2005 that's for sure, and had we never been in that match I wouldn't have been too fussed, but it's the way we lost that really hurt. 4 goals in as many minutes by Prick Davis with the final one kicked with 10 seconds to go which sunk us by 3 points. Yeah, that really hurt! It hurt a lot more than the 04 Prelim when we almost snatched victory becuase despite getting within 7 points or so, I never really felt like we were going go win and certainly didn't expect it. 05 I genuinely thought we could push through to at least the Prelim and even challenge for the Flag. Needless to say that most of 06 was an epic failure before euphoria in 07.

 

[Senatorguesty]

We weren't the best team in 2005 that's for sure, and had we never been in that match I wouldn't have been too fussed, but it's the way we lost that really hurt. 4 goals in as many minutes by Prick Davis with the final one kicked with 10 seconds to go which sunk us by 3 points. Yeah, that really hurt! It hurt a lot more than the 04 Prelim when we almost snatched victory becuase despite getting within 7 points or so, I never really felt like we were going go win and certainly didn't expect it. 05 I genuinely thought we could push through to at least the Prelim and even challenge for the Flag. Needless to say that most of 06 was an epic failure before euphoria in 07.

Its funny because I'm the other way around.
04 hurt for me because he dominated around the ground, smashed em in inside 50s but just couldnt kick enough goals whereas I knew in 05 we were screwed fitness wise (so many injured) that we could only really go hard for 3 quarters and even if we won would have been SMASHED the week after anyway.
Although I agree the WAY we lost hurt.

 

[Strangled Cat]

Its funny because I'm the other way around.
04 hurt for me because he dominated around the ground, smashed em in inside 50s but just couldnt kick enough goals whereas I knew in 05 we were screwed fitness wise (so many injured) that we could only really go hard for 3 quarters and even if we won would have been SMASHED the week after anyway.
Although I agree the WAY we lost hurt.

We certainly played well in 04 and could have easily won, but I just never felt like we were going to get over the line. Probably pessemistic I know, but either 04 or 05 we were NOT going to win a flag either of those years as Port and West Coast were far too strong respectively. I think everything happened for a reason, and I couldn't wish to go back and change anything in light of what we have acheived in the last 5-6 years.

 

[iameviljez]

We certainly played well in 04 and could have easily won, but I just never felt like we were going to get over the line. Probably pessemistic I know, but either 04 or 05 we were NOT going to win a flag either of those years as Port and West Coast were far too strong respectively. I think everything happened for a reason, and I couldn't wish to go back and change anything in light of what we have acheived in the last 5-6 years.

I think we can all acknowledge that if that Prelim had been played up north like it should have been, we wouldn't have been within six goals of Brisbane.

Still, of all the years that I've followed the footy, 2004 was the most exciting. There was something about watching this team knit itself together and come out from the shadows of 90s Geelong that was invigorating and refreshing. 2007 was brilliant, for sure, but there was also pressure and expectation. The flag wasn't so much ecstasy as a relief.

 

[Senatorguesty]

We certainly played well in 04 and could have easily won, but I just never felt like we were going to get over the line. Probably pessemistic I know, but either 04 or 05 we were NOT going to win a flag either of those years as Port and West Coast were far too strong respectively. I think everything happened for a reason, and I couldn't wish to go back and change anything in light of what we have acheived in the last 5-6 years.

yeah exactly.
Regardless of those 2 years we were never going to win the flag, it was all about the learning experience.
I wouldnt trade 2008 in either in light of what we have been able to do since. Back to back would be nice (we will find out in 2 months ) but 3/5 (and beating the pies!) is better than back to back IMO.

 

[Aerial Ping Pong]

However far we go, remember to put your money on whoever knocks us off for the flag. My recollection is that whoever puts us out of the running for finals or eliminates us from finals always goes on to win.
That said my best scenario. 1st week either Eagles or Dockers at the G. 2nd week Hawks at the G (they lost to Crows) 3rd week. Prelim Swans at ANZ. Grand Final vs Crows. BBB (Back to Back Baby...).

 

[you pick one]

We really are defying gravity we would have been expected to be heading south out of the 8 with the Saints by now, the whole AFL system is geared that way.
Just the fact we will be there in September is enough for me.I seem to recall a Grand Final winner not long back missed the 8 the following year, so pleased our boys avoided that embarrassment.