Expectations for September

[Footy_Fan2007]

Shit if we got rolled by the Hawks in the GF Bigfooty would be unbearable. I think i'd retire.

 

[Handsuper47]

Just seeing Geelong make the finals again with a chance of winning is incredible in itself, though it may not be your year if I were to back any team in the finals this season it would be Geelong.

 

[Red Crow]

Bel, even Adelaide didn't win 4 straight finals.

We did win 4 finals in 1997. West Coast, Geelong, Bulldogs, St. Kilda. But we finished 4th that year. 1998 was when we won from 5th, but lost in week one. I think people often get the two mixed up.

If you guys can win the GF, it will be a monumental effort. This is the best chance for a team outside the top 4 to do it since the current finals system has been implemented, and if its going to be any team then you would put your money on Geelong.

Having said that I'm not so sure you will be able to, especially if you have to travel in consecutive weeks. I also think pencilling in a win against us at AAMI would be foolish (for any team, not just Geelong) despite our recent average form.

Whatever happens it will be a brilliant finals series with one or two upsets on the cards. Good luck, but I hope we don't play you. Only because the missus is a cats fan and I won't be able to gloat if we win, or stand her if we lose!

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Yeah, AAMI will be a tough gig for sure. Still think that playing at our best we can mix it with ANYONE, but yeah. Home ground advantage is exactly that.

 

[BotsMaster]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the last team to make the Grand Final outside the Top 4 was Carlton in 1999.

Another interesting fact is 10 years ago (2002) if you had a 13-9 w/l record you finished Top 4, whereas now if you had the same record you would be lucky to finish Top 8.

 

[witsend]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the last team to make the Grand Final outside the Top 4 was Carlton in 1999.

Another interesting fact is 10 years ago (2002) if you had a 13-9 w/l record you finished Top 4, whereas now if you had the same record you would be lucky to finish Top 8.

Because the draw is so skewed with some teams playing the bottom 4 times so often. The system favors teams bottoming out but with strong upside, imo, and punishes sustained excellence.
For all the talk about tanking, it's not the draft picks that help so much it's the soft draw you get. Look at Adelaide.

 

[CF]

IMHO we wont win the flag or make the prelims. The best we could achieve is winning one final and then losing in the Semi's. Our form is much better now but I think still too inconsistent to really be a Premiership threat as if the "bad cats" turn up for even a quarter we will get spanked badly in finals.

I hope I am wrong and the Cats pull off a miracle. But History clearly shows that you have to be top 4 to have a real shot at the Premiership.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

IMHO we wont win the flag or make the prelims. The best we could achieve is winning one final and then losing in the Semi's. Our form is much better now but I think still too inconsistent to really be a Premiership threat as if the "bad cats" turn up for even a quarter we will get spanked badly in finals.

I hope I am wrong and the Cats pull off a miracle. But History clearly shows that you have to be top 4 to have a real shot at the Premiership.

One day someone will change that. It's inconceivable that we'd still be sitting here 50 years from now saying 'no one has ever won the flag without the double chance'.

In a year like this, we're as a good a chance as anyone to re-write that history.

Not saying we will, I just don't know why so many people think it's impossible for someone to win from outside the 4. Whether us this year or sometime in the future, it will be done, and then people will change their mindset on it.

 

[candiehappy]

One day someone will change that. It's inconceivable that we'd still be sitting here 50 years from now saying 'no one has ever won the flag without the double chance'.

In a year like this, we're as a good a chance as anyone to re-write that history.

Not saying we will, I just don't know why so many people think it's impossible for someone to win from outside the 4. Whether us this year or sometime in the future, it will be done, and then people will change their mindset on it.

I feel like this year is that time when outside the top 4 have a real chance - if - Hawks don't win their first final and get a break. I just feel that if they do they are the one team that would be unbeatable.

 

[supahoops]

One day someone will change that. It's inconceivable that we'd still be sitting here 50 years from now saying 'no one has ever won the flag without the double chance'.

In a year like this, we're as a good a chance as anyone to re-write that history.

Not saying we will, I just don't know why so many people think it's impossible for someone to win from outside the 4. Whether us this year or sometime in the future, it will be done, and then people will change their mindset on it.

Agreed. History clearly shows that top 4 teams generally win, and top 4 teams generally are the best equipped to in any given year, but this could be the year that that all changes. It's one thing to be a student of history. Another to re-write it.

 

[CF]

One day someone will change that. It's inconceivable that we'd still be sitting here 50 years from now saying 'no one has ever won the flag without the double chance'.

In a year like this, we're as a good a chance as anyone to re-write that history.

Not saying we will, I just don't know why so many people think it's impossible for someone to win from outside the 4. Whether us this year or sometime in the future, it will be done, and then people will change their mindset on it.

I don't just base my opinion solely on the historical fact that sides outside the top 4 have never won a flag. I do agree that this year could see that change as several teams like the WCE, NM and Geelong could prove an upset and change history. I understand where you are coming from.

But...for me I just don't think we have the form and players to be a real threat this year. Oh our lads will be competitive but against the top teams we will struggle.

But it has been a great year for us from a development point of view and in I expect good things in the future.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

One day someone will change that. It's inconceivable that we'd still be sitting here 50 years from now saying 'no one has ever won the flag without the double chance'.

In a year like this, we're as a good a chance as anyone to re-write that history.

Agreed. If ever there was a year that it could happen, this was always likely to be the year. The premier almost always comes from the top four for two reasons. The easier path to the grand final is one, but the bigger factor in my opinion is that the teams that ultimately make the grand final are simply better teams. With the expansion teams being 'protected' from the top three from last year, it's quite conceivable that the best four teams in the league at the end of the season aren't the teams in the top four spots on the ladder. There was always a distinct likelihood that a team like North Melbourne or Adelaide would finish in the top four, because of their easy fixtures, and then go out in straight sets.

I'm not predicting premierships (I think, on reflection, a preliminary final appearance would be an amazing achievement), but I think we can beat anyone on our day. Interstate travel is certainly a factor, but with a few curveballs in the mix (Sydney home games at ANZ, a venue they hate; the potential of a grand final against Adelaide/Sydney at the MCG, which, although grand finals are never easy, would be about as big a gift as you can imagine), we can do some damage. It's just got all the makings of one of those Lleyton Hewitt-esque grand slams, where it comes down to the team that makes the least mistakes on the day. And in that scenario, we're as good a chance as anyone.

 

[proboy]

Finals football is a whole new kettle of fish. Pressure gets to players. Cause the heat is on and the speed is up another 10 % on a normal game. Its just a matter of which team has the less strugglers.

 

[bombersboy]

At the end of the day I don't think our older players bodies will allow them to stand upto 4 weeks of finals and I don't think the younger players have the 'mental edge' yet to back up over the 4 weeks. I'll settle for getting the experience of a couple of finals into the kids.
That said would love to see us go all the way. The history of the game says that we are probably overdue for a side to go back to back.

 

[Scottland2007]

At the end of the day I don't think our older players bodies will allow them to stand upto 4 weeks of finals and I don't think the younger players have the 'mental edge' yet to back up over the 4 weeks. I'll settle for getting the experience of a couple of finals into the kids.
That said would love to see us go all the way. The history of the game says that we are probably overdue for a side to go back to back.

In answer to the thread question. I would be happy making a prelim. I think that is reasonable for the reigning premiers. I do agree with bombersboy. I think the constant grind of finals ( 4 weeks, no rest week), will be to much for the elder players, it is also likely that our prelim could be interstate. Making it even tougher.

 

[Seeds]

IMHO we wont win the flag or make the prelims. The best we could achieve is winning one final and then losing in the Semi's. Our form is much better now but I think still too inconsistent to really be a Premiership threat as if the "bad cats" turn up for even a quarter we will get spanked badly in finals.

I hope I am wrong and the Cats pull off a miracle. But History clearly shows that you have to be top 4 to have a real shot at the Premiership.

You may as well give up then and go skiing. Can I have your finals tickets when we get there?

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

I'll settle for getting the experience of a couple of finals into the kids. That said would love to see us go all the way. The history of the game says that we are probably overdue for a side to go back to back.

Too right The AFL 'gold logo' that only the reigning Premier has the right to wear has been a friggen heavy load. Since its inception we wore in in 2008 and 2010, the Pies in 2011 - all to ultimately doomed campaigns. We're wearing it again this year.

Something's gotta give!!!

 

[DrEvil]

Shit if we got rolled by the Hawks in the GF Bigfooty would be unbearable. I think i'd retire.

And vice versa, seriouly that would be the most epic game in history....

 

[Senatorguesty]

I don't just base my opinion solely on the historical fact that sides outside the top 4 have never won a flag. I do agree that this year could see that change as several teams like the WCE, NM and Geelong could prove an upset and change history. I understand where you are coming from.

But...for me I just don't think we have the form and players to be a real threat this year. Oh our lads will be competitive but against the top teams we will struggle.

But it has been a great year for us from a development point of view and in I expect good things in the future.

The difference is there has never been a time that a side outside the top 4 was one of the great sides who had won 3 of the last 5 flags and current premier.

 

[barmy44]

The difference is there has never been a time that a side outside the top 4 was one of the great sides who had won 3 of the last 5 flags and current premier.

also we could see teams as low 7th with a record (15-7) good enough for top four in every year bar 2011 the current final 8 has been in operation. if we win our last two. freo in 8th will have a record good enough for top four in a number of those years as well (13-9).

 

[_Me_]

hawks v collingwood in first final will determine our prelim - hawks should just lose that to ensure we play them in the gf, and not the prelim

we should play north, adelaide, hawks, and sydney
the game that wrries me the most is the north game

can anyone imagine how sick schoenmakers will feel all week

 

[SJ]

hawks v collingwood in first final will determine our prelim - hawks should just lose that to ensure we play them in the gf, and not the prelim

we should play north, adelaide, hawks, and sydney
the game that wrries me the most is the north game

can anyone imagine how sick schoenmakers will feel all week

Hawthorn will belt Collingwood in current form. Could be ten goals plus.

 

[Senatorguesty]

I hope we play the Hawks in the prelim, mainly so that if we lost its not as big a deal as a GF but I'd LOVE to knocked em out and stop them even getting to the GF. Also I agree the North game could be our toughest of the first 3 and schoenmakers wouldnt be getting much sleep leading into a final against the Cats

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

can anyone imagine how sick schoenmakers will feel all week

Must not... comment. I put a horrible reverse-mozz on Geelong in 2008 and I wish to avoid it here.

 

[rooie]

wow, if we don't beat sydney next week we could finish 7th with Freo in 6th due to % as they will win big against the Dees over there. This means our first final could be at Subi against Freo. Didnt see that coming.