Hawthorne always troubles me as we haven't found a way to beat them since the 2008 game here. But then we haven't played them here since then.
Sydney I gave us a 50/50 chance of winning but then I thought that they would go top 4 this year. So disapointed but I can live with it.
Norf should have been a win though. Big disappointment
Thought we might struggle against Essendon (who I had rated to go top 8) also a 50/50 for mine. So happy
Thought Collingwood wouldn't make the 8 with Buckley as coach so not surprised with a win. More surprised how they are traveling now.
GC rated to go top 8 but thought we would win easily.
For mine we were going as predicted through the first 5.
Norf put my predictions off and I had us as 60/40 to win against Port but the numbers have flipped around on us there.
On the flip side I have us only beating Richmond here and so thought they would get up at the G. given their form I think that has reversed.
So from where we are I think that ;
- We should get 9 wins against lower lights
- A loss to the Hawks in round 21 is most likely (we need to turn that around)
- I hope that we can win one of the port matches (8 and 23)
- Win one of the Cats matches (9,20) as we usually go alright against them
- Should get one of the derby matches and hopefully both (7,15)
On that basis we should have a minimum of 12 wins for the season. Port made the 8 last year with 12 wins (Carlton made it on 11 but only got in because of Essendon). Additionally Sydney made the 4 with 15 wins and a draw. Richmond missed on 15, so 16 for the top 4. This means that we need to beat the following at least once; Geelong, Eagles, Port and one of them twice if we drop the other Hawks game.
Do I think top 4 is doable? Yes. But its getting harder.