Opinion Expectations

[Taylor]

Pav in the middle during the first Port game resulted in at least one goal as Kane Cornes found himself lined up on Pav in the middle then chased him when Pav ran forward, Pav marks over the not key defender Cornes and goals.

Our game plan took a huge hit when both Morabito and Barlow were unavailable, that's where Pav fit. Now we have the big bodies.

 

[Arcassius]

It frustrates me a little when people talk about 'running out of time' ...

I don't believe we are running out of time - it's not a countdown clock after which Pav retires and we may as well just give up and shut down the club. As long as we continue unearthing good players and continue to be coached well we will always be up and around the mark required to get some September action - I honestly believe that.

Silvs while not spectacular can cover for McP, and if the new boys come along we'll be up and about. Pav didn't play for half a season last season and we still found a way.

The sky is not falling, the window is not shutting (worst media beat up term ever), we are not going away.


I see us up around 4th again. 3rd if we can stop the games where we have a collective mindblank.

 

[clogged]

I see us up around 4th again. 3rd if we can stop the games where we have a collective mindblank.

Effectively window shut then. Last time a club won from 3rd was 2005. A side has never won from 4th in the current format. You are saying that Freo has little better than a 10% chance of winning the premiership.

 

[Arcassius]

Effectively window shut then. Last time a club won from 3rd was 2005. A side has never won from 4th in the current format. You are saying that Freo has little better than a 10% chance of winning the premiership.

Since you seem to love statistics, what are the odds of any team winning the premiership in any given year, all things being equal?

I do think we will be up around that point again (top 4), not sliding as some suggest. We may do better, we may do worse - but no I don't view it as 'window shut'

 

[Boppo]

I wouldn't discount Richmond from top 4 material.

I think Geelong will slide.

Hawks and Swans are locks.

We should be stable.

Depends on how much further Port, North and others make.

I don't see massive upswing from us unless our depth players really push. Top 2 will have to be driven by 1 to 3 players from those considered fringe. By driven I mean breakout career defining years.

Someone posted a Richmond side in the best 22 2015 thread. Not even top eight.

 

[Boppo]

Its going to be all about Apeness next year. Pav will need to be managed, this will be the season we notice his decline the most.

 

[E Shed]

I like that we are going to underdogs again next year. According to the main board its a 3 horse race between Port, Hawks and Sydney with even North having gone past us in most people's opinion.

 

[Kram]

lol norf.

 

[E Shed]

lol norf.

They beat us this year. Added Waite and Higgins. Both flakey but capable.
I don't agree with what they are doing or that they are a better side than us but they are not easy beats.

 

[calaisking]

I like that we are going to underdogs again next year. According to the main board its a 3 horse race between Port, Hawks and Sydney with even North having gone past us in most people's opinion.

I like it too. Seemed as though everyone's expectations of Freo this season where so high that the team couldn't live up to it.

 

[freoextra]

They beat us this year. Added Waite and Higgins. Both flakey but capable.
I don't agree with what they are doing or that they are a better side than us but they are not easy beats.

Agreed that North are not easybeats (especially as they beat the top 4 during the year) but, so far, it is very hard for me to rate their coach as anything but average. Seems to lose the plot whenever anyone questions one of his players (too emotional) and they are flogged (not beaten - but flogged) in the pressure of finals games.

 

[Arcassius]

On what basis do you assert the side will finish top four?

The team was consistently one of the oldest in the league this year, and ended the year sixth. Next year it has a choice to make - try again with a similar line up, being one of the oldest teams in history, and thereby being at risk of faltering with injuries at the end of the season.

Or rotate in new blood, which opens gaps in terms of preparedness and discipline and therefore runs the risk of more losses.

Either way a premiership is out of the question in 2015.

5.55% by the way - the question I asked on the odds of a team winning all things being equal (which they aren't, but you can twist stats whichever way you want to make a point).

There are two parts to answering you -

The first is looking at where improvement will come from within our team. I expect Fyfe to improve again, Hilly, Neale, Sutcliffe, Crozier. Mora to at least add to depth. I expect Sylvia to have wrapped his head around what is required (going by the fact he's training early it's a good sign and fair assumption to make). I expect Ibbo and Clancee to be reliable contributors again. I expect the club to play McPharlin less, to give more game time to Silvagni and pending fitness Smith and A/C Pearce depending on needs. Apeness to play some more games this season, and Taberner to feature more reliably. I don't expect D Pearce to fix his disposal.

Rotating a new player through won't harm us as much as some suggest - as long as they are well drilled and know their role, which is something the pre-season allows us to develop, and we have a coach that enforces it. On balance if we lose a little output from the old stallions but gain some from the younger players, we should be in and about the same as this season.

The second part is the improvement in the competition around us. Port have improved, and are the biggest threat to us, as have the Hawks. Geelong, Sydney will be thereabouts. North - I won't count them as long as they continue to be flaky, and the last few seasons for them have been consistent in their inconsistency. Maybe they will click next season, or maybe not. The lower teams will have improved, some have new coaches and will take time to settle. Overall I see us sitting in amongst the same pack we were in this season, all of whom face exactly the same problem we do (apart from Port).

I'm talking top 4 quality here. You say we finish 6th but how we performed during the regular season is a better indicator of our quality as a team than anything else.

If you think we're going to slide - then so be it, I disagree. Geelong haven't been any less competitive introducing a few new youngsters while retiring the stallions - I don't see why we won't be.

 

[Purple Jesus]

Who gives a toss about being 'up and around top 4' forever? I want to be #1.

 

[Arcassius]

Who gives a toss about being 'up and around top 4' forever? I want to be #1.

Don't we all but this is the expectations thread and not the rainbows thread

 

[pavsbootlace]

Who gives a toss about being 'up and around top 4' forever? I want to be #1.

Rosich, Harris and the FFC board.

 

[Purple Jesus]

Rosich, Harris and the FFC board.

Nope.

 

[pavsbootlace]

Nope.

Well, they've said repeatedly that the aim is sustained success. That's kind of the opposite of throwing everything at a premiership. Going by our recent trading and drafting history, it appears as though the club is putting a lot more energy into success in the Post-Pavlich Era (PPE) than they are into a premiership next year. I reckon their plan is to finish top 4 as often as possible and hope that the chips fall our way in December. It makes sense from a business perspective, we'll sell more merchandise, attract more fans, etc from sustained top 4 finishes than we would from a flag followed by an eternity in the wilderness.

If we were all out for a flag we'd have offered Franklin, Taylor and Frawley more coin.

 

[Purple Jesus]

Well, they've said repeatedly that the aim is sustained success. That's kind of the opposite of throwing everything at a premiership. Going by our recent trading and drafting history, it appears as though the club is putting a lot more energy into success in the Post-Pavlich Era (PPE) than they are into a premiership next year. I reckon their plan is to finish top 4 as often as possible and hope that the chips fall our way in December. It makes sense from a business perspective, we'll sell more merchandise, attract more fans, etc from sustained top 4 finishes than we would from a flag followed by an eternity in the wilderness.

If we were all out for a flag we'd have offered Franklin, Taylor and Frawley more coin.

We offered them enough, they just didn't opt to move to WA. It's not the money really - and you can't sell the farm when you're already at the top end. Why would you go to WA for $1 mil a season when you can go to Sydney for $1 mil a season?

Believe me the board want a flag above all else.

 

[pavsbootlace]

We offered them enough, they just didn't opt to move to WA. It's not the money really - and you can't sell the farm when you're already at the top end. Why would you go to WA for $1 mil a season when you can go to Sydney for $1 mil a season?

Believe me the board want a flag above all else.

Agree to disagree.

 

[Purple Jesus]

Agree to disagree.

It's not an opinion.

 

[clogged]

5.55% by the way - the question I asked on the odds of a team winning all things being equal (which they aren't, but you can twist stats whichever way you want to make a point).

I thought it was a pointless rhetorical question.

If you think we're going to slide - then so be it, I disagree. Geelong haven't been any less competitive introducing a few new youngsters while retiring the stallions - I don't see why we won't be.

There is a massive gap between the quality of Geelong 2007-2011 and Fremantle of 2012-2014. Geelong's managed decline has still seen them lose an extra couple of games in the home and away season, and seen them win only one final out of six since their last premiership.

A similarly well managed decline for Freo puts the side out of the top four.

 

[clogged]

Well, they've said repeatedly that the aim is sustained success. That's kind of the opposite of throwing everything at a premiership. Going by our recent trading and drafting history, it appears as though the club is putting a lot more energy into success in the Post-Pavlich Era (PPE) than they are into a premiership next year. I reckon their plan is to finish top 4 as often as possible and hope that the chips fall our way in December. It makes sense from a business perspective, we'll sell more merchandise, attract more fans, etc from sustained top 4 finishes than we would from a flag followed by an eternity in the wilderness.

I would suggest retaining McPharlin is punting heavily on a premiership next year.

The argument many are making here is that Freo is faced with two choices: running with a very experienced team each week in order to win over 70% of games to squeeze into top four, or inject youth into key areas at the risk of temporarily falling down the ladder (and perhaps missing the eight altogether) with the view that will bring more sustained success.

If the side resembles the 'best' line up as developed by Lyon since late 2012, then it is highly likely it will miss top four completely. It is old, many of the players in key positions are injury prone and close to retirement. As much as people say "if Freo didn't have injuries this year the team could have gone all the way" the reality is that there were only three players missing from the 2013 Grand Final side. The Hawks had more players missing from their 2013 Grand Final side during the finals.

And two of those players that missed for Freo are on the wrong side of 30 next year and have struggled with injuries at the back end of the past two-three seasons. It's going to take an incredible amount of luck that Pavlich, McPharlin, Sandilands, Johnson play any more than a handful of games in the same side next year, let alone come finals. Then there is the next couple of players over 30 in Duffield and Crowley who it would seem would be surplus to needs quite quickly.

At least third of the side could be gone in the next two years. In the context of how little the side has changed since late 2012 (only four players different from SF 2012 to SF 2014), that is a dramatic turnover.

If we were all out for a flag we'd have offered Franklin, Taylor and Frawley more coin.

There is a salary cap.

 

[ep2018]

Effectively window shut then. Last time a club won from 3rd was 2005. A side has never won from 4th in the current format. You are saying that Freo has little better than a 10% chance of winning the premiership.

Sydney won the flag from 3rd in 2012, and Saints at least drew a GF in 2010 from 3rd.

I was thinking the other day that 4th never winning a flag was a strange stat because 3rd has won it a few times and then I remembered the teams winning from 3rd mostly had to win their QF (and thus receiving a home PF) and 3rd has a much better chance of beating 2nd in a final than 4th beating the minor premiers.

Honestly, if you make good use of your home ground advantage and win the games away you should then top 2 isn't out of the question. Hope for your sake that you pull Sydney, Hawks, Geelong, Port etc all at Subi so you can dispatch them and prevent them from gaining a win.

 

[clogged]

Sydney won the flag from 3rd in 2012.

True, but they were ladder leaders up until round 21. I dismissed Adelaide as they've been ordinary since.

For Freo to win the premiership, the best chance is if they finish top two. Ross Lyon says this all the time. Finish top two, top four in defence and attack, kick more than 100 points per game. By his own benchmarks, Freo have never been in that premiership winning contention (aside from defence), as good as the 2013 season was.

Anyway you look at it, the side has to get a lot better to win a premiership. I look at the composition of the team that has played the past three seasons, and I see an overall decline, not an improvement.

 

[ep2018]

True, but they were ladder leaders up until round 21. I dismissed Adelaide as they've been ordinary since.

For Freo to win the premiership, the best chance is if they finish top two. Ross Lyon says this all the time. Finish top two, top four in defence and attack, kick more than 100 points per game. By his own benchmarks, Freo have never been in that premiership winning contention (aside from defence), as good as the 2013 season was.

Anyway you look at it, the side has to get a lot better to win a premiership. I look at the composition of the team that has played the past three seasons, and I see an overall decline, not an improvement.

You will find your fortunes turn massively next year with Walters not missing almost the whole season. Hopefully Ballantyne stops the cheap shots too.