Opinion Expectations

[Kram]

Although the biggest disappointment for me was the Saints game. It was inexcusable, and must be a priority if we are to push again this year.

Wasn't so much we lost but just how badly that was the thing about it.

I wouldn't be surprised if there had been a virus or something that had run through the team.

 

[DardySingh360]

I expect us to win the premiership still.

Don't see anything stopping this side replicating 2013's form in 2015 apart from McPharlin's 'demise' for lack of a better word, Silvagni is a more than capable replacement anyway.

If we get our shit together mentally and hopefully get a decent run with injuries I'm sure we'll be thereabouts.

 

[Mr Peabody]

The heart says Top 2 but the head had to do the analysis and condition it....


ASSUMPTIONS TO MAKE TOP 2
1. Stability in Key Defensive Talls.
2. Play 2 Forwards that consistently contribute.
3. Improve Clearance Work.
4. Avoid suspensions.
5. Peel must improve.

Stability in Key Defensive Talls
- Only 14/25 games (56%) where we had a full compliment of 3 from Macca, Johnno, Zac D or Silvagni playing.
- In 3 of those games, Silvagni was the 3rd Tall so only 11 games (44%) where the prime 3 played together.
- This needs to push up to over 75% during the season & of these 4 talls we need 3 fit & firing at the business end.
- A.Pearce and/or T.Smith are long shots for 2015 as our Key Defensive Talls. They need big seasons at Peel.

Play 2 Key Forwards that consistently contribute
- Critically, the forward line needs Pav and one of the developing talls to work in tandem.
- Relying on the resting ruck is not enough as both are primarily tap ruckmen and don't take enough marks.
- Ross has acknowledged this in playing Taberner for the last 5 games (and stating he should have played him more earlier in the season) while venting his frustration publicly on Clarke.
- It's more likely to be Taberner than Apeness who I see as a long shot for 2015. The latter must develop at Peel.
- Ballaz & Walters to play more than 5/25 games together. Where we had neither, we lost (North, STK).
- Crozier and/or Duffy to develop and add spark. Geelong R20 last quarter - they caused havoc for the Cats.

Improve on Clearances.
- We are blessed with greater depth in the running division but we need to capitalise more on Sandi's dominance.
- We lead the comp in hitouts (by 15% over 2nd) but we are 5th in clearances (the Top 4 finalists are above us).
- His tapwork was brilliant at times, but can still be rather predictable and teams obviously still read him too easily.

General Obs
- Stay disciplined. Avoid suspensions and carry over points.
- Peel has to be more competitive with players developing and pushing up for selection.
- Injuries are inevitable - hopefully they are more evenly spread rather than concentrated in defence.
- Have to be fit and firing at the business end. We were thin and battered this year.
- Practice the art of goal kicking under fatigue and pressure.

 

[Unique Name]

Well said Peabody.

Enough can't be said about how we need Peel to improve. He wouldn't want it but if we got De Boer to be Capt of the Peel side he could provide some real leadership and direction to the side while also bolstering the midfield.

Hard for our young ones to develop and prepare for the RTB game plan when playing for the rabble that is Peel.

 

[Quokka]

Absolutely expect to be top 4 next year.

So much will depend on who we've got developing on the list already and so I'm also expecting to know by the end of 2015 if Morabito, Taberner, Crozier, Sherridan and Smith have what it takes to help us be a premiership side and to a lesser extent Apeness, A.Pearce, Ballard and Simpson as well.

 

[andrew99]

Top 4 definitely. We are better than Geelong and North, Port I feel have just about overtaken us although I still think we should beat them at Subi but we will likely lose at Adelaide Oval while Hawks and Sydney are still the top 2. Injuries next season will probably determine who finishes where but anything other than top 4 will be a major disappointment.

How have Port overtaken us if we can beat them at home but lose away, meaning a 1-1 vs them record?

Aside from the big-3 we have a young team too, like Port does. The midfield is set for the future.

In terms of talls: getting Frawley would have helped but with deft drafting and the introduction of Smith/Pearce/Apeness/Taberner the age profile of our list suddenly becomes more favourable and comparable to the "next powerhouse" Port list. Port doesn't exactly have a plethora of talls either.

 

[andrew99]

Well said Peabody.

Enough can't be said about how we need Peel to improve. He wouldn't want it but if we got De Boer to be Capt of the Peel side he could provide some real leadership and direction to the side while also bolstering the midfield.

Hard for our young ones to develop and prepare for the RTB game plan when playing for the rabble that is Peel.

I doubt MDB would be happy in that role tbh, i'd almost feel guilty doing that to him given his loyalty. I'd rather let him find a new home, he deserves a chance elsewhere if we're not going to give it to him.

 

[andrew99]

Absolutely expect to be top 4 next year.

So much will depend on who we've got developing on the list already and so I'm also expecting to know by the end of 2015 if Morabito, Taberner, Crozier, Sherridan and Smith have what it takes to help us be a premiership side and to a lesser extent Apeness, A.Pearce, Ballard and Simpson as well.

I agree. I think we have at least 1 more premiership chance with this current group (PAV/Sandi/Macca/Ryan C. generation) then there's a group under that is ready to explode, maybe in another 1-2 seasons of rebuild. Those talls of ours need to develop ASAP.

 

[gaskin]

How have Port overtaken us if we can beat them at home but lose away, meaning a 1-1 vs them record?

I said just about overtaken us not that they have.

 

[sportsmaniac89]

Honestly, anything less than Top 4 would be a great disappointment.

This year, the only times I saw us with sufficient pressure was in Round 1 against Collingwood. A lot of the season there were periods of pressure but also periods of being lackadaisical. Honestly, injuries killed us but I tell you what, Brisbane on a Sunday and then a 6 day break for Port is what ultimately bought us down. Meant we were struggling for Sydney and then playing on that dungheap of a ground left us screwed for the second Port game.

Having said that, fitness was a bit dodgy at times, goal kicking was disgraceful at times, umpiring was very ****ing shit at times and at times, we were ordinary.

We need improvement across the board and considering we've got our people at Trade Week on a junket, sitting on their hands doing nothing, it's hard to see where that improvement can come from.

We need absolutely everything to go right next season to finish Top 2 but even allowing that things will go wrong, top 4 or bust.

 

[Grandstan]

Finished top 4 h&a this year, no reason we can't do it again.

 

[Kram]

To go all the way we have to have everything go right and a fair bit of luck, other sides are a bit better.

 

[Borry]

Sydney, Hawthorn and Port will be very hard to beat next year. We are up against it in this regard. Sydney have done their homework with regards to that prelim in 2013, Hawthorn find ways to step it up in an awesome manner like they did to us in round 3 as well as the GF and the fact that port have comfortably run us off our feet in every last quarter this season we played them is a worry.

A lot of variables need to go our way to win the thing.

I think we will be top 6 again, just have no idea how far we'll go from that. At best we will give the flag a fair dinkum crack.

 

[Admiral Byng]

Definitely expecting top 4. As long as we have no stupid lapses like the St Kilda game.

 

[Silent Alarm]

How have Port overtaken us if we can beat them at home but lose away, meaning a 1-1 vs them record?

Aside from the big-3 we have a young team too, like Port does. The midfield is set for the future.

In terms of talls: getting Frawley would have helped but with deft drafting and the introduction of Smith/Pearce/Apeness/Taberner the age profile of our list suddenly becomes more favourable and comparable to the "next powerhouse" Port list. Port doesn't exactly have a plethora of talls either.

Well Port beat Freo at Subi and missed out on a Grand Final by about a goal; as opposed to Fremantle looking pretty insipid in the two finals.

The thing about Port is that their best 19-22 year olds are better than ours (Wingard and Wines > Lachie and Sutcliffe), they have more of those middle band youngsters who have played more games and shown a lot more, and they have some good positionally spread with their young guys. Plus, they're not relying on 29 to 33 year olds to keep their forward line and back line in tact.

There are two types of Freo fans; the optimist and the perennial pessimist. Quite often the two tangle and you live in that dichotomy. But there's always one side that comes out more. You are the optimist

 

[Clems Knee]

Well Port beat Freo at Subi and missed out on a Grand Final by about a goal; as opposed to Fremantle looking pretty insipid in the two finals.

The thing about Port is that their best 19-22 year olds are better than ours (Wingard and Wines > Lachie and Sutcliffe), they have more of those middle band youngsters who have played more games and shown a lot more, and they have some good positionally spread with their young guys. Plus, they're not relying on 29 to 33 year olds to keep their forward line and back line in tact.

There are two types of Freo fans; the optimist and the perennial pessimist. Quite often the two tangle and you live in that dichotomy. But there's always one side that comes out more. You are the optimist

Good post.

How old is Nathan Fyfe? Handy player for us. Over all I think you are probably right about Port.

 

[Fyfetheknife]

 

[Quokka]

Good post.

How old is Nathan Fyfe? Handy player for us. Over all I think you are probably right about Port.

Had he said under 23 he could have added Fyfe, Walters, Morabito, but that wouldn't really have suited the argument.


Of course there's also the fan that thinks everything continues on just as it did yesterday. Sydney and Hawthorn left us well behind, Port stepped past us, North closed the gap significantly and let's be honest Freo went backwards... Now project them lines out another 23 rounds and yep we're screwed, top 4 is gone.

Imo the danger with Freo and expectations for 2015 is we all know we need to change, we need real improvement from younger players, we need those players to step up and player better than they ever have. We have some younger players that could do it. I hope they do and I expect Lyon to get enough of it right to put us top 4.

But from there, F*** knows if we'll have gotten enough of the improvement we will have needed to make us a real threat.

 

[FreoBulldog]

I have never tried to predict the future....and I never will (boom boom!).

But seriously, isn't the whole point of supporting your team being allowed to dream about winning the ultimate prize. We CAN win this mutha, it'll be hard and we will need some luck, but we can do it.

 

[Square Peg]

To go all the way we have to have everything go right and a fair bit of luck, other sides are a bit better.

This sums it up for me. In an ideal competition the best 2 teams make the GF every year but we live in the AFL world of compromised fixtures and so on. We aren't in the top 2 on talent, so Silent Alarm is probably right and the dream is over, but anything can happen.

 

[Patty_Moz]

Well Port beat Freo at Subi and missed out on a Grand Final by about a goal; as opposed to Fremantle looking pretty insipid in the two finals.

The thing about Port is that their best 19-22 year olds are better than ours (Wingard and Wines > Lachie and Sutcliffe), they have more of those middle band youngsters who have played more games and shown a lot more, and they have some good positionally spread with their young guys. Plus, they're not relying on 29 to 33 year olds to keep their forward line and back line in tact.

There are two types of Freo fans; the optimist and the perennial pessimist. Quite often the two tangle and you live in that dichotomy. But there's always one side that comes out more. You are the optimist

Agree. I don't actually think we were that unlucky with injuries this year Pav and Sandi had awesome yrs but next year we will have the oldest list in the league and our injury situation will get worse. I'm willing to bet Mcpharlin will retire before the finals even start and this still one of our major problems.

Not saying we can't do it but geez we need some of our mediocre/ young players to start playing out of their skin and I'm sceptical. Ports players are doing it at 21.

Also I'm not convinced top 4 is good enough. We need to finish top 2 to be a chance and I don't think we're that good.

 

[Moist Biscuit]

I have stated this earlier, but we need less role players (Crowley, De Boer, Suban, Spurr, Clarke) and more match winners (Morabito, Crozier, Simpson, Duffy, Sylvia , Apeness) in the 22.

 

[gaskin]

and more match winners (Morabito, Crozier, Simpson, Duffy, Sylvia , Apeness) in the 22.

What have any of these guys done to prove they are match winners?

 

[Bulldocker]

Top 4.

Mora sees through a full preseason before playing half-back distributor for +20 games. Apeness at KPF for entire season. Sandi, Walters and Pav stay fit. Clarke to actually turn up for the big pressure games. No more than 1 clanger per match permitted from MJ or Ibbo. No lapses such as the Norf and Saints season breakers.

Think that about covers it.

These are my hopes..... and as such, I expect the team to carry them out (especially the Apeness one)!

Amen

 

[Moist Biscuit]

What have any of these guys done to prove they are match winners?

It's the kind of players that they are, a lot of raw skill in all of them. Our current Matchwinners, Pav, Balla , Sonny, Fyfe, Mundy, Hill. It's fine to have your Warriors (Spurr, Crowley, DeBoer) but they aren't the kind of players that will win us a premiership. Crowley needs to be able to run both ways, every centre bounce that he's involved in, we are already a man down. Spurr is probably one that I am happy to stay in the side. But DeBoer should only be depth from now on. We need elite disposers of the footy (Sylvia, Simpson, Crozier) to play the majority of next year.