Experience v Age - Hawks, Pies & Crows to Contend, Eagles to slide..

[blitzer]

The truth is no one slice of list demographics is going to tell the full story. For example: Richmond supporters might be super excited by the above stats and their young average age and high level of experience. Nothing wrong with that. But the truth is the true core of their team, their bonafide elite players are all on the older side of things. Rance, Riewoldt, Cotchin and Martin are the core of the side and are not young. They have other good players of course (Rioli, Lynch, Prestia, Edwards etc) but certainly I wouldn't categorise them as a young list in the context of will this list be a contender for 5-6 years. Well they might be but it won't be with the same core.

Despite the above paragraph I think Richmond should be very good for at least the next few years because their elite players are aging very well so far.

 

[Quinz]

I think the OP is fair. We had a great year this year but our most important players in Kennedy and NN are suffering more and more injuries. It wouldn't be a shock also if players like Shuey, Hurn, Masten, Jetta, Schofield started declining as they are getting to the age where Eagles players can quickly drop in output.

For years people were saying our age and game numbers were right in the premiership zone, and then it seemed like everyone forgot that. We're slightly passed the tipping point for our longer term players so it's a matter of our mid age tier of stars (Gov, Gaff, Yeo) leading the team going forward.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Ron The Bear has the exact stats but we essentially dropped more than two years in average age and won the flag anyway, something that only happened a handful of times in VFL/AFL history. You'd have more of a point if we won the flag this year with Mitchell, Priddis, Petrie etc making up our core.

Biggest age drop from previous season to win flag (senior team, h&a season only):

Age Diff|Club|Season
\-1.21|Ca|1945
\-1.18|Ca|1987
\-1.03|WC|2018
\-0.80|Ca|1914
\-0.79|Me|1957
\-0.74|Es|1993
\-0.69|Ge|1925
\-0.58|Fi|1904
\-0.58|Ad|1997
\-0.57|Me|1955
\-0.56|Me|1939
\-0.54|Ri|1943
\-0.48|Fi|1916
\-0.47|Es|1901
\-0.46|Ge|1952
\-0.41|Ca|1972
\-0.38|Ha|1978
\-0.38|Fi|1922
\-0.33|Me|1926
\-0.28|Ge|1951

The Eagles were a bit of a special case with their 2017 age boosted temporarily by Mitchell and Petrie, but it's still an exception to succeed when winding back.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Flags won by average age rank & average games rank. The latter can be a bit deceptive in the case of new clubs, e.g. Adelaide 1997 ranked 14th for average games but were the 6th oldest team.

1st = oldest/most experienced

Rank|Age/Flags|Games/Flags
\1st|16|29
\2nd|19|18
\3rd|17|19
\4th|9|15
\5th|11|10
\6th|17|6
\7th|11|5
\8th|4|5
\9th|4|7
\10th|1|-
\11th|4|3
\12th|5|-
\13th|-|2
\14th|3|2
\15th|1|1

The above appears to show that experience is a better indicator than age with respect to winning flags. However in individual matches, comparative age is the more reliable indicator.

 

[threesixpio]

Great stats Ron The Bear

 

[Forward Press]

Biggest age drop from previous season to win flag (senior team, h&a season only):

Age Diff|Club|Season
\-1.21|Ca|1945
\-1.18|Ca|1987
\-1.03|WC|2018
\-0.80|Ca|1914
\-0.79|Me|1957
\-0.74|Es|1993
\-0.69|Ge|1925
\-0.58|Fi|1904
\-0.58|Ad|1997
\-0.57|Me|1955
\-0.56|Me|1939
\-0.54|Ri|1943
\-0.48|Fi|1916
\-0.47|Es|1901
\-0.46|Ge|1952
\-0.41|Ca|1972
\-0.38|Ha|1978
\-0.38|Fi|1922
\-0.33|Me|1926
\-0.28|Ge|1951

The Eagles were a bit of a special case with their 2017 age boosted temporarily by Mitchell and Petrie, but it's still an exception to succeed when winding back.

Thanks very much and it's remarkable that we're the first team to 'wind back' and win a flag since the baby Bombers and Adelaide's back to back squad over 20 years ago. Which teams have dropped in age for next year?

 

[Obeanie1]

But then that would mean your depth is untried and inexperienced. This would probably mean you fall away pretty quickly when injuries strike where as a team such as Hawthorn is more even

How did that pan out this year?

Eagles lost key olayers for chunks of the season. In came the kids to play a role and add some youthfull enthusiasm and things worked out quite nicely.

Confidence in your ability and your teammates, coaches and game plan plays a massive part.

 

[Obeanie1]

I the end as long as you get up around the mark come finals time, you're a chance. Just because it happened this year doesn't guarantee anything for next year. Take my team for example. A flag followed by a fantastic season meant nothing after we didn't show up for the Prelim. Look art the Crows - who would have thought that would have happened this year but you certainly can't write them off next year. The Eagles have an older list so injures come hand in hand with that and injures to their better players too. Nothing against West Coast, just what happens.

Luck is a crucial component to any flag and you had it this year like we did last

The Eagles had a lucky year?

How?

 

[Obeanie1]

The Eagles had a lucky year?

How?

The only thing I can posibly think of is having Collingwood take out an weakend Tigers in the prelim.

The Tigers were sore at the exact wrong time of year.

 

[kid_a]

Anything other than a flag would constitute a 'slide' for us. So likely to happen I guess

 

[Kappa]

Young Pies OFFICIALLY second OLDEST list average in AFL. Will not stop - "but we are a young side excuse".

Most of our old players - Wells Goldsack Dunn Mayne ect had little to no impact on our season.

 

[Scotland]

Also LOL @ any pre-season predictions these days.

Hawthorn 14/15 would have been the last time anyone got it right. WB, Rich, WC in consecutive years, no one tipped that.

 

[threesixpio]

Also LOL @ any pre-season predictions these days.

Hawthorn 14/15 would have been the last time anyone got it right. WB, Rich, WC in consecutive years, no one tipped that.

We have all made bold predictions in our time ....

 

[threesixpio]

I don’t think this thread is necessarily about predictions - it’s exploring a myth and potentially debunking it with stats. I like this thread

 

[threesixpio]

I think the OP is fair. We had a great year this year but our most important players in Kennedy and NN are suffering more and more injuries. It wouldn't be a shock also if players like Shuey, Hurn, Masten, Jetta, Schofield started declining as they are getting to the age where Eagles players can quickly drop in output.

For years people were saying our age and game numbers were right in the premiership zone, and then it seemed like everyone forgot that. We're slightly passed the tipping point for our longer term players so it's a matter of our mid age tier of stars (Gov, Gaff, Yeo) leading the team going forward.

I’m pretty happy Kennedy got a flag. Great player

 

[shintemaster]

I’m pretty happy Kennedy got a flag. Great player

Given Carlton's pretty ruthless move many years back to swap for Judd there's a little bit of delayed justice about his eventual success.

 

[HTT]

The only thing I can posibly think of is having Collingwood take out an weakend Tigers in the prelim.

The Tigers were sore at the exact wrong time of year.

That’s a bit disrespectful to the pies who were on that night and the next week. We were off, no doubt, but our absolute best still would’ve been 2 goals down at half time - I reckon it would’ve tracked like the GF did, us getting a couple of opportunistic goals that ensure it doesn’t get out of hand. After that it’s all guesswork but I’m not sure the pies could maintain that level for 4 quarters. They understandably buttoned off in the prelim but in the GF they did seem to run out of juice - maybe that was partly due to playing 4 finals. Ultimately, even our best would’ve only given us about a 50/50 chance against Collingwood the way they played in the prelim.

If we were the ‘best team all year’ then Collingwood were at least that good, and West Coast, most importantly, better. In terms of playing the best footy in September it was undoubtedly West Coast > Collingwood >>>>> Richmond/Melbourne.

 

[BBC1967]

Gimme that salt

Did you win a premiership????

 

[BBC1967]

You were lucky to get within 80 of us in the prelim.

We had gastro.

What about the Grand Final????

 

[loki04]

Most of our old players - Wells Goldsack Dunn Mayne ect had little to no impact on our season.

Yes he forgot to separate "list" from "side" ie 22.

It's interesting as weren't we 4th youngest list last year?

 

[BBC1967]

Take two and have a good lie down.

View attachment 590089

Do you define yourself by winning PF's but losing Grand Finals? It appears SOME Pies fans still have not accepted that they were runners up in 2018. Another moral victory. Anyway young Wells and young Dunn will make a difference in 2019.

 

[Dynamics]

Do you define yourself by winning PF's but losing Grand Finals? It appears SOME Pies fans still have not accepted that they were runners up in 2018. Another moral victory. Anyway young Wells and young Dunn will make a difference in 2019.

Who hurt you?

 

[EggyTeggy]

Who hurt you?

You did when Collingwood pumped Richmond in the Prelim

 

[Dynamics]

You did when Collingwood pumped Richmond in the Prelim

Clearly.

 

[Obeanie1]

That’s a bit disrespectful to the pies who were on that night and the next week. We were off, no doubt, but our absolute best still would’ve been 2 goals down at half time - I reckon it would’ve tracked like the GF did, us getting a couple of opportunistic goals that ensure it doesn’t get out of hand. After that it’s all guesswork but I’m not sure the pies could maintain that level for 4 quarters. They understandably buttoned off in the prelim but in the GF they did seem to run out of juice - maybe that was partly due to playing 4 finals. Ultimately, even our best would’ve only given us about a 50/50 chance against Collingwood the way they played in the prelim.

If we were the ‘best team all year’ then Collingwood were at least that good, and West Coast, most importantly, better. In terms of playing the best footy in September it was undoubtedly West Coast > Collingwood >>>>> Richmond/Melbourne.

No disrespect for the Pies.....that is why I said 'possibly'.

Dusty playing on one leg and Asbury picked when earlier in the week he was crook in hostpital was fortunate for the Pies no doubts. Was that the difference? Probably not as the Pies smashed the Tigers in the first half.

So a somewhat inexperienced finals side knocking out the reigning premiers possibly was the only luck I can see the Eagles having in 2018.