Explanation for Break-evens work and Price Changes?

[GoNickGill]

sorry didnt know where to ask this ...

how much is a trade worth in dt$$$....

eg is it viable to trade player A- worth 200k for player B) worth 100k

presuming both players average the exact same , say av of 70??

after 8-10 rounds my guess would be player A would be worth 300k (plus 100k) and player B 250k (plus 150k) ... thats just a guess

so therefore in trade i pocket 100k initially and make an extra 50 k more on player B....

total profit from trade $150000

worth doing???

Depends on what you intend to do with the player and your circumstances.

If you intend to keep the player worth 200k for the entire season and not upgrade him there may not be a point to the trade because both players will score the same for the season. But it sounds like both players will be upgraded during the season. Really you have to weigh up what is more important and this is where your situation come into it. If you are struggling with injuries and omissions I'd suggest not trading because trades will be more important elsewhere, but if you have had relatively few problems with injuries this may well be a good option for you. Or then again you may be conservative and want to keep trades in hand for later in the season if you place importance on the Leagues for instance. You also have to consider both players injury records and likelihood of keeping their place in their sides.

In this situation a total profit of $150k is probably worthwhile though if you are confident of what your saying will happen and if you have trades available.

 

[CRAWF 08]

Depends on what you intend to do with the player and your circumstances.

If you intend to keep the player worth 200k for the entire season and not upgrade him there may not be a point to the trade because both players will score the same for the season. But it sounds like both players will be upgraded during the season. Really you have to weigh up what is more important and this is where your situation come into it. If you are struggling with injuries and omissions I'd suggest not trading because trades will be more important elsewhere, but if you have had relatively few problems with injuries this may well be a good option for you. Or then again you may be conservative and want to keep trades in hand for later in the season if you place importance on the Leagues for instance. You also have to consider both players injury records and likelihood of keeping their place in their sides.

In this situation a total profit of $150k is probably worthwhile though if you are confident of what your saying will happen and if you have trades available.

cheers mate..

wasnt intending on keeping either of these players....pretty confident both will keep spot in team ...
havent used any trades this will prob be my first along with downgrading hill this week...
have raines on bench planning on keeping him there

will have 200 k in bank

ready for upgrade in week or two ... think i'm making goood sense

 

[Walesy]

Round 1 2009

Total DT points: 25,150


Early rounds 2008

Round 4 - 3970 total DT points 24219
Round 5 - 3982 total DT points 24222
Round 6 - 3992 total DT points 24259
Round 7 - 4016 total DT points 23674
Round 8 - 3960 total DT points 24354
Round 9 - 3900 total DT points 24115

Dogs mate-
2008
Round 1 -23354
Round 2 -23789
Round 3 -24594

- Last year's round three got awfully close to this years round 2
2009
Round 1 -25150
Round 2 -24847

So who knows, perhaps the drop won't be as pronounced as we're all expecting?

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

I did a bit of calculating today and found that the TPP is actually approximately 160 million this year (obviously i didn't count players in multiple positions more than once).

The distribution for each position (counting players for than once in this calculation) was:

Backs - ~52.5 million (244 players)
Mids - ~65 million (271 players)
Rucks - ~14.5 million (81 players)
Forwards - ~ 49.5 million (227)

That means the 96 players that can be chosen in more than one position are worth ~20 million. Most of these 96 players with multiple positions have the forwards as one of their 2 positions.

 

[LemmingMaster]

It really depends on what you define value as. I think that value is a players scoring output relative to his price, therefore premiums that score low in the beginning part of the season do not represent good value.

If you had two options.

Ablett scores: 120, 120, 120........50,50,50
or
Ablett scores 50, 50, 50.......120, 120, 120

You would always prefer that your premiums scores are lower near the end of the season. My main thoughts behind this is due to the fact most people will be able to upgrade to your premium if he tanks at the start of the year.

This would almost be called the Riewoldt syndrome.

 

[Saint KFC]

If you had two options.

Ablett scores: 120, 120, 120........50,50,50
or
Ablett scores 50, 50, 50.......120, 120, 120

You would always prefer that your premiums scores are lower near the end of the season. My main thoughts behind this is due to the fact most people will be able to upgrade to your premium if he tanks at the start of the year.

This would almost be called the Riewoldt syndrome.

Exactly, hence why you want to get premiums from the start that will be fairly consistent over 22 rounds and not fluctuate in price and trade in the expensive players who have slow starts.

With Riewoldt, his yearly scoring is almost periodic.

2004:
Rounds 1-12 - 89.5
Rounds 13-22 - 112.5
Season avg: 99.9

2006:
Rounds 1-12 - 89.9
Rounds 13-22 - 104.9
Season avg: 96.7

2007:
Rounds 3-12 (missed 1 and 2) - 79.8
Rounds 13-22 - 108.5
Season avg: 99.3

2008:
Rounds 1-12 (missed 8) - 82.5
Rounds 13-22 -118
Season avg: 99.4

So by this, we can roughly predict his scoring patterns for the rest of the year. If you average all of those Rounds 1-12 values and Rounds 13-22 values, you get:

Rounds 1-12: 85.4
Rounds 13-22: 111
Season avg: 98.8

So far this year
Round 1: 39
Round 2: 93
Total: 132

To get to an average of 85.4 from Rounds 1-12, he will have to average about 89.5 from Rounds 3-12
To get a season average of 98.8, he will have to average about 115 from Rounds 13-22

Rounds 1-2 = 132pts
Rounds 3-12 = 895pts (avg 89.5)
Rounds 13-22 = 1150pts (avg 115)
Total: 2177pts

2177/22gms = avg 99

Fairly rough estimates, but you get the idea.

 

[WhippingCupcakes]

Have a question about break evens.
Looking at Heath Hocking. His initial score was $213,000 and increased by $38,800 after rd 3. Now his B/E is 15 according to FFGenie. Is the break even of 15 to keep his increased current price or his initial price?

 

[twarby]

Have a question about break evens.
Looking at Heath Hocking. His initial score was $213,000 and increased by $38,800 after rd 3. Now his B/E is 15 according to FFGenie. Is the break even of 15 to keep his increased current price or his initial price?

current im quite sure

 

[thebaxters]

Current. Although it's just an estimate... if every player scored 5 ppg more than their avg, then the TPP would increase, and all players prices would be scaled down accordingly. It's likely be within a few points or so of it though.