F1 F1 2024 thread

[Vader]

Why Singapore? If he's still there at Zandvoort, he'll see out the season. Three of the four races after Singapore are in North America, where Ricciardo is pretty popular.

Because there's a steady stream of races, pretty much every week, between Hungary & Singapore. After Singapore there's a 4 week break, before the final batch of 6 races. It's a logical point to put an end to Ricciardo's F1 career, and the start of Lawson's full-time F1 career (as distinct from having him filling in for Ricciardo in 2023).

 

[Barrybran]

Because there's a steady stream of races, pretty much every week, between Hungary & Singapore. After Singapore there's a 4 week break, before the final batch of 6 races. It's a logical point to put an end to Ricciardo's F1 career, and the start of Lawson's full-time F1 career (as distinct from having him filling in for Ricciardo in 2023).

Fair enough. I don't see it happening for the reasons above but I see what you're saying.

 

[happy_eagle]

Because there's a steady stream of races, pretty much every week, between Hungary & Singapore. After Singapore there's a 4 week break, before the final batch of 6 races. It's a logical point to put an end to Ricciardo's F1 career, and the start of Lawson's full-time F1 career (as distinct from having him filling in for Ricciardo in 2023).

Theres a months break after Spa

 

[99 Problems]

Don’t think it helps Lawson at all to go into that car at this point in the season. Drives are hard to find so he can’t say no, but if he’s not beating Yuki and struggles the rest of the year it would be completely reasonable, but the way the narrative works in F1 he’d be under way more pressure to start next season.

 

[Vader]

Theres a months break after Spa

View attachment 2036289

That would be the break I was looking for in the calendar, and completely failed to see.

Feel free to replace "Singapore" with "Spa" in all of my previous posts.

 

[happy_eagle]

That would be the break I was looking for in the calendar, and completely failed to see.

Feel free to replace "Singapore" with "Spa" in all of my previous posts.

There is also a months break after Singapore

 

[Vader]

There is also a months break after Singapore
View attachment 2036384

Which is the one I spotted. I missed the one after Spa.

He won't make it to Singapore.

 

[santainacathat]

I'm not so sure Dan is gone just yet though barring a miracle he won't be at RB next year. There is fierce competition to finish as high up the constructor's championship as possible. Based on last year's predictions and a slight increase there could be up to $25m difference between 5th and 7th. If Yuki arrests his slight form drop it puts the pressure right back on Dan but if it stays as it is and Dan keeps chipping away with getting a few points here and there would RB want to take the risk with Lawson when AM and Haas are so close. AM are having a bit of a slide and are definitely catchable but on the flip side Haas are improved and very close behind.

 

[Vader]

I'm not so sure Dan is gone just yet though barring a miracle he won't be at RB next year. There is fierce competition to finish as high up the constructor's championship as possible. Based on last year's predictions and a slight increase there could be up to $25m difference between 5th and 7th. If Yuki arrests his slight form drop it puts the pressure right back on Dan but if it stays as it is and Dan keeps chipping away with getting a few points here and there would RB want to take the risk with Lawson when AM and Haas are so close. AM are having a bit of a slide and are definitely catchable but on the flip side Haas are improved and very close behind.

Yuki has already been re-signed, and was never leaving while Honda remain the Red Bull engine suppliers. His form is largely irrelevant.

Red Bull have signed Max, Checo and Yuki for 2025, and they want Lawson in the other seat. That leaves no room for Ricciardo, unless he's willing to settle for being the back-up driver again.

 

[santainacathat]

I was specifically meaning for the remainder of this year. Yuki's seat is in no doubt and next year neither is Liam's. My argument is if Yuki doesn't arrest his slide and Dan keeps pulling a few points would they put Liam in anyway or wait til next season. A lot of money at stake and I remember the reaction at AT when they gained a place when Dan finished 7th last year.

 

[Vader]

I was specifically meaning for the remainder of this year. Yuki's seat is in no doubt and next year neither is Liam's. My argument is if Yuki doesn't arrest his slide and Dan keeps pulling a few points would they put Liam in anyway or wait til next season. A lot of money at stake and I remember the reaction at AT when they gained a place when Dan finished 7th last year.

They want Lawson in the car before the end of this year. It is very difficult to see him surviving beyond Spa.

I'd say the odds are roughly...
Silverstone - 30%
Spa - 60%
Singapore - 9.9%
End of Season - 0.1%
Still driving F1 in 2025 - 0%

 

[DamoESP]

Never thought I would see the day Wolff was defending Verstappen but here we are
Wolff is probably saying it just to piss Zak Brown off haha

Wolff: No ‘correlation’ between Verstappen/Norris Austria F1 incident and 2021 clashes

Mercedes boss Toto Wolff has denied the claim that Max Verstappen's clash with Lando Norris in Formula 1's Austrian Grand

www.motorsportweek.com

 

[DamoESP]

Also, rumours floating around that Danica Patrick has been sacked by Sky Sports......

 

[Bestbird]

Never thought I would see the day Wolff was defending Verstappen but here we are
Wolff is probably saying it just to piss Zak Brown off haha

Wolff: No ‘correlation’ between Verstappen/Norris Austria F1 incident and 2021 clashes

Mercedes boss Toto Wolff has denied the claim that Max Verstappen's clash with Lando Norris in Formula 1's Austrian Grand

www.motorsportweek.com

Or still hopefull of getting Verstappen

 

[Neale4brownlow]

I was specifically meaning for the remainder of this year. Yuki's seat is in no doubt and next year neither is Liam's. My argument is if Yuki doesn't arrest his slide and Dan keeps pulling a few points would they put Liam in anyway or wait til next season. A lot of money at stake and I remember the reaction at AT when they gained a place when Dan finished 7th last year.

I agree.

There's a few things going for Danny to finish out the season:

• Points. You'd be a gambling man to say Lawson will definitely score more points than Ric to finish the season. Very unlikely;
• Ric is marketable. The optics of cutting him after just bringing him back is not good.
• Feedback he gives to improve the car.

I think it's in everyones best interest for RedBull to come out and confirm Lawson for 2025 seat but Ric to finish the season.

 

[skam85]

I agree.

There's a few things going for Danny to finish out the season:

• Points. You'd be a gambling man to say Lawson will definitely score more points than Ric to finish the season. Very unlikely;
• Ric is marketable. The optics of cutting him after just bringing him back is not good.
• Feedback he gives to improve the car.

I think it's in everyones best interest for RedBull to come out and confirm Lawson for 2025 seat but Ric to finish the season.

There's also whispers of Lawson being in the running for the Audi seat, everything seems to be on hold pending Sainz's decision.

Nothing will happen before that, and if Danny Ricc is scoring points he won't get the flick before season end.

Agreed the most likely scenario is that it's Lawson and Tsunoda at RB in 2025.

Ricciardo isn't performing at De Vries levels of poor, and the Red Bull stable respect him enough (translated: Horner still has most of the power) to at the very worst let him see out the season.

The delusional ramblings of that geriatric old git Helmut Marko mean very little.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

I think Ric is 90% gone from the sport in 2025.

But I do think there's still a way he retains a seat in 2025.

There are still a few left and Ric is experienced and marketable.

eg:
- Merc. If they miss Max they're likely to go with Antonelli. But he's a kid. In a time they need development. Russell will need to shoulder that load. I think it's risky for them. It would make sense to put someone like Ric in the seat for a year pre-2026 for further development then reassess.

Alpine. Unlikely but same reasoning. I think this is no chance though due to past history but I think there's been enough turnover in this company to perhaps make history irrelevant.

Willliams - Sainz obviously the main competitor. Then maybe Bottas?

RB - Lawson has this wrapped up for 2025 so no look in there.

Haas - Ocon and ....? Maybe Bearman but Haas really need to move away from rookie drivers. They've looked much better this year with 2x experienced drivers. There's room for Ric here. I think they'd happily take him. Depends if Ric wants to ride around at the back or move onto something else.

Sauber (audi). Development and marketability make sense. 2026 opportunities.

Main competitors:
Ocon - He is not advertising himself well at the moment
Bottas - Performance hasn't been great. I think he'll retire?
Sainz - Gets first pick of the above list.
Antonelli - Young but gets the Merc seat if they want him.
Lawson - RB seat is his for 2025.
Bearman - Haas seat.

I count 7x seats available and 7likely drivers for seats (incl Ric).
Zhou / Sargent / Magnussen to lose their seats and not return.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

There's also whispers of Lawson being in the running for the Audi seat, everything seems to be on hold pending Sainz's decision.

Nothing will happen before that, and if Danny Ric is scoring points he won't get the flick before season end.

Agreed the most likely scenario is that it's Lawson and Tsunoda at RB in 2025.

Ricciardo isn't performing at De Vries levels of poor, and the Red Bull stable respect him enough (translated: Horner still has most of the power) to at the very worst let him see out the season.

The delusional ramblings of that geriatric old git Helmut Marko mean very little.

What exactly is Sainz waiting for at this point?

He knows the options left. He's risking being left out of options getting worse and worse. He's fortunate for now that he appears to be the stopper on everything but soon teams just won't wait around any longer.

I can't help but think behind the scenes the elephant in the room is what is Max doing? He's signed until 2028 but exit clauses appear to suggest he could walk if he wanted end of this year.

Imagine if Max is considering that move to Mercedes... then it would really be on.

Who would Red Bull turn too in that scenario after having just resigned Perez?
Likely Sainz if he were still available.
Backup would probably be Ric for a year or two?

 

[skam85]

What exactly is Sainz waiting for at this point?

He knows the options left. He's risking being left out of options getting worse and worse. He's fortunate for now that he appears to be the stopper on everything but soon teams just won't wait around any longer.

I can't help but think behind the scenes the elephant in the room is what is Max doing? He's signed until 2028 but exit clauses appear to suggest he could walk if he wanted end of this year.

Imagine if Max is considering that move to Mercedes... then it would really be on.

Who would Red Bull turn too in that scenario after having just resigned Perez?
Likely Sainz if he were still available.
Backup would probably be Ric for a year or two?

Holding on until the very last I guess in case something crazy happens with Max/Red Bull/Kimi/Mercedes.

Sounds like Alpine will be getting Mercedes engines from 2026 which is more appealing than Williams.

 

[Jatz]

I'd be staggered if Max actually goes anywhere else.

 

[Vader]

I think Ric is 90% gone from the sport in 2025.

But I do think there's still a way he retains a seat in 2025.

There are still a few left and Ric is experienced and marketable.

eg:
- Merc. If they miss Max they're likely to go with Antonelli. But he's a kid. In a time they need development. Russell will need to shoulder that load. I think it's risky for them. It would make sense to put someone like Ric in the seat for a year pre-2026 for further development then reassess.

Alpine. Unlikely but same reasoning. I think this is no chance though due to past history but I think there's been enough turnover in this company to perhaps make history irrelevant.

Willliams - Sainz obviously the main competitor. Then maybe Bottas?

RB - Lawson has this wrapped up for 2025 so no look in there.

Haas - Ocon and ....? Maybe Bearman but Haas really need to move away from rookie drivers. They've looked much better this year with 2x experienced drivers. There's room for Ric here. I think they'd happily take him. Depends if Ric wants to ride around at the back or move onto something else.

Sauber (audi). Development and marketability make sense. 2026 opportunities.

Main competitors:
Ocon - He is not advertising himself well at the moment
Bottas - Performance hasn't been great. I think he'll retire?
Sainz - Gets first pick of the above list.
Antonelli - Young but gets the Merc seat if they want him.
Lawson - RB seat is his for 2025.
Bearman - Haas seat.

I count 7x seats available and 7likely drivers for seats (incl Ric).
Zhou / Sargent / Magnussen to lose their seats and not return.

Except that Ricciardo himself says that he's not talking to any other teams. For him it's VCARB or bust - there is no Plan B (and none of the other teams would take him anyway).
https://speedcafe.com/ricciardo-not-focused-on-lawson-f1-threat/

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Holding on until the very last I guess in case something crazy happens with Max/Red Bull/Kimi/Mercedes.

Sounds like Alpine will be getting Mercedes engines from 2026 which is more appealing than Williams.

Alpine are a proven basket case regardless of the equipment.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

I'd be staggered if Max actually goes anywhere else.

Norris has challenged him the past 3 races now. And a real chance of beating him all 3 times.

If the pack closes on Max, and the dollars come from Merc... why not?

Perez' performance is another indicator to max that if he leaves then whoever fills his seat at RB is not necessarily going to be any competition for him.

 

[happy_eagle]

I'd be staggered if Max actually goes anywhere else.

For next year yes. He'd be crazy to go anywhere else in the current regs.

For 2026. I can see him leaving

 

[Vader]

For next year yes. He'd be crazy to go anywhere else in the current regs.

For 2026. I can see him leaving

I can see quite a few driver changes happening in 2026, when the new regs kick in. Honda will be switching from Red Bull to Aston Martin, so that will spell the end of Tsunoda's time at VCARB. Perez has a 1+1 deal, and it's becoming increasingly hard to see him achieving the trigger conditions now that the Red Bull's car dominance has gone. I'm sure there will be other changes as well.