Agreed an average card, all the nice horses out at this time of the year resting up for next week. It's Saturday tho so there is to money to be won (most likely lost) will quickly go through the card.
Race 1 - A nice race. True Persuasion was good at the Valley a couple of weeks ago, Newitt probably got him going a bit early. Launay the Snowden runner, another Lohnro, opened up very short. Was about as impressive as you could be in a weaker race a few weeks ago. No Vacancy won well at the Valley in what was also quite a weak race by 2 lengths or so. War Ends the interest runner in the race, was very nice on debut, looked a bit raw, got home really well, the extra distance will suit out to 1200, A Kav runner who usually places his horses well.
My Tip - War Ends @ $7 is value...
Race 2 - Jeez this is a poor race, $70000 prize money and just a lack of quality horses, looks like a Thursday afternoon field.. Acquired just didn't seem to get through the ground last start in a stronger race, 3rd up doesn't go well, Probably won't be winning here. Ariani has been running consistently in similar races for a while, a good last start winner where it got on the back of Marchelle Belle and forged past it approaching the 100. Avionics comes out of the same race as Ariani and it was on the back of Ariani and had it's chance but just seemed to feel the pinch late. Double Crossing has seemed to of been placed well here, is a consistent runner who tries to run on in it's races and has the ability to win here, just not sure if their is enough pace up front, which will be the telling factror.
My Tip - Probably not worth playing this race. Double Crossing e/w probably the only way i could point you.
Race 3 - Another tough race here, many unproven 2yo's but Not A Pretenders form looks pretty nice for this race. Running home well behind Beneteau two starts ago and then again behind Decision Time more recently seems to bode well for this race. Mick Price will debut Renounce in this race aswell, who seems to be well bred and has opened up a $3 favorite. The only other horse that I could point you in the way of would be The Firefly who was pretty unlucky in debut but this field is probably a bit tougher than what the field was that day at mornington.
My Tip: I think Not a Pretender will be there abouts, and if I had to play i'd be on that. Don't think this race is one to be putting your hard earned on tho.
Race 4 - Seems to be one of the better races of the day which is disappointing, considering it's not great. General Truce was punished by a bad gate in the Diamond and I think it's a forgive. Was fairly solid before Benatau previously to that at Caufield where he kind of loomed up like it was going to get a bit of a buffer before the winner zoomed past it, beat the rest home clearly. Toorak Toff was fantastic on debut at Sandown, running on well once it saw daylight to win comfortably. Crystal Lily ran a nice 6th in the Diamond where it zoomed across from a wide gate to lead them up the straight and still looked a good chance at the 150, felt the pinch a bit. Probably will get an easier lead here, will be tough to beat. Thegreatandthegood was fantastic on debut, where it dropped out clear last in the Prelude before really stretching out and getting 3rd, the run would've done it the world of good and I think might be a major player n this race, include it in your multiples. Parisian Sunrise had a very nice debut where it probably deserved to win, looking at the field I think it should get the run of the race behind the leaders.
My Tip: General Truce @ $7, again i think it's the value of the race, cross out it's last run. E/W. One of the better chances of the day IMO.
Race 5 - Zavite is down in class here after struggling in the stronger races, has always struggled at Caufield and with the big weight I can't have him in this one. Salbadari has been running nicely and consistently in similar races and will be in the finish you'd have to think, 2000 seems to suit. My Bentley who was running well in the spring has come back in great order, before being a touch unlucky in it's last start where the speed just wasn't on and while making it's move where it looked like running into the top 6 was checked and then blocked for a run, can almost discount the run, there is $4.80 around for it which is interesting. Bertonic probably the biggest query runner in the race, out to 2000 for the first time, I actually think this could be it's first time over 1600? Watching the replay again of it's last race just before you can't help but think that the extra distance will suit. Took lengths off Scenic Scene last start over the last 150 or so.
My Tip: My Bentley for mine. Probably has more ability than Salbadari for mine and seems to be at solid odds. If the speeds on it will be hard to beat, again there doesn't seem to be a heap of speed.
Race 6 Time Matters has been running well since returning from the paddock in all three runs has seemed to have been a bit off them before finding the line late. Back to 1200 which IMO isn't a good thing but loves the track and should be close enough. VELOCITEA looks very well placed here. Fought on well first up to win, is great second up, is great over 1200, is great at the track. Just about the good thing of the day for mine, barrier 3 is also a plus. Should sit just off the leaders and get a good trail into the race. Stanzout won well first up and has never been out of the first 3 over this distance at Caufield. Lighthorseman seems to have a fair bit of ability and looked fantastic two starts back when defeating Motspur, can put a line through it's last run where Corey Brown somehow had it 4 wide out the back despite jumping from barrier four.
My Tip: Velocitea straight out. Exactas with 2 and 8.
Race 7 Gut feel is that there is an upset on the cards, not sure why. Typhoon Tracy has been just about as impressive as possible and won quite easily against a resuming lot of stayers first up. That said Snipers Bullet FLEW home at the Valley and will appreciate 1600 which was proven in Perth when it performed really well. Dao Dao the lightly raced 6yo who was just beat by Rangirangdoo up in Sydney in it's last run on what was a heavy track, 7 wins out of 15 to date and 12 out of 15 in the top 3....it knows how to race. Joku has won 3 on the trot and is in fantastic form, 3.5 length winner in the Kilmore Cup. Got over the top of Danzylum and Zarita not long ago....In a race like this I can't back the $1.60 shot with much confidence despite it being one of the better horses in Australia, if not the best. It probably wins. But theres enough chances in this field to go a bit wider.
My Tip: Snipers Bullet.
Race 8 Extra Zero was friendless in the betting prior to it's last run where it drifted from a warm fave to third or fourth fave before running an honest fifth behind Linton and Take the Rap has opened up quite short here again though will appreciate the 1800. Take The Rap a group 3 winner got home very well with Linton in the same race as Extra Zero to go down by around a length. Query on the distance but has raced as tho 1800 will be no problem. Viking Hero i am warming too in this one, was really good over 1800 in the spring where it got over the line first before being demoted to 3rd after the protest at good odds and has seemed to of come back in good order. Has ran encouragingly in it's first two runs back from the spell and 1800 definitely suits. Salinas and Absolute Faith also seem to have a chance.
My Tip: Viking Hero for mine. I dunno, another tough race.
Race 9: Jeez this is a tough race to finish the day with. Berringama has opened up favorite following 5 placings on the trot and probably deserves to have a win here, but just not sure if it wants to win? Should take a forward role and will have every chance here you'd think. Light Vision resumes but not sure if it can win over 1400, although it's only other run over 1400 resulted in a second. Struggles first up, although with all the speed in this race might be flashing home late.. Still Me won well at the Valley last start over 1500, will probably try and lead or at least sit in the first couple due to it's wide gate. Confidence Reef has been running in career best form and is another who will try and zoom across the field to lead. Delta Gee, who raced unkindly for Oliver last start could be a chance here. Should sit somehwere in the second half of the field and will be running on, if it can settle in transit it should be in the finish. Reverend Lovegoy goes well first up and goes well at the distance and is another who could be there abouts
My Tip: Really hard to split this lot, Delta Gee would probably be my pick if I needed to pick.
Quaddie: 2,4,8/1,6/1,2,3,7,8/1,2,3,5,8,9,11
Rapping up
Race 1 - War Ends
Race 2 - Double Crossing
Race 3 - Not a Pretender
Race 4 - General Truce#
Race 5 - My Bentley
Race 6 - Velocitea*
Race 7 - Snipers Bullet
Race 8 - Viking Hero
Race 9 - Delta Gee
# - Best e/w bet
* - Best bet