Face-Off: Adelaide vs Fremantle, Round 5, Sunday April 18, 12:40pm CST

Are you team Jacob or Edward?


  • Total voters
    4

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Coopers

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 23, 2007
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Traditionally, a face-off thread is where we come together for some detailed and well researched insights into an upcoming game.
And that's totally what you're getting. Absolutely. Focusing on the right things in here.

I've done face-off's before (they always seem to be in April?), so was shocked to find it’s been a couple of years since football depression has allowed me to lift my typing fingers.
If you're keen to harken back to 2017 and 2018, feel free. I checked out my own sh*t for inspiration, not gonna lie. It's some of the best football analysis you will ever see. Old names. Hampton, remember him? Yeah.

So anyway, now that we're all in the mood, let's get into it:


VS


WHEN?
Sunday April 18th 12:40 CST (so like 8am in Perth)
WHERE?
Adelaide Oval


FACE OFF!!!!!!! 🕺 🕺 🕺 🕺

WOOOOOOO FACEEEEE OOOOOOFFFF!!!!!! WOOOOOO!!!

BAM BAM BAM, BAM BAM BAM, BAM BAM! 🎍
(That's the BAM! smiley apparently?)

In your faaaaaaace!



FORM ANALYSIS
I have to be up front about this: I am somewhat surprised that we crows are playing so well this year. It's good to see.

I know why. I know the secret. Has anyone noticed a trend with our small "pressure" forwards this year? The ones that play up forward but also get runs through the middle: Murphy, McHenry, Schoenberg. All 3 have stepped up and are in surprising form: Murphy and Ned are playing well enough to... maybe keep having careers I guess, and Schoenberg looks like a future mainstay of the midfield. Guess what?

Same Haircut.

Now I won't go as far as saying that the trio have discovered an untapped source of footballing power and skill using dark magic and haircut related rituals, possibly involving a Dungeons & Dragons session, but I'm also not not saying that.

Look closely: The 3 of them essentially rotate through similar positions, and all of them have the huge fuzzy do on top with the shaved sides (for speed).

So what's more likely?
  • They live together and therefore attend a local hairdresser who can only do one cut, or
  • They all lost the same bet, or
  • Nicks has a Mr Burns-esque issue with sideburns, or
  • Dark magic.
You be the judge.

There's also like, 19 other guys that are on the field. Some of which do football things too.
And then there’s Fremantle, who have also… been a team this year. Probably anyway. I haven’t paid attention.

Murphy.PNG

Murph, mate, c'mon.

THE STATE OF FOOTBALL IN 2021
I spent a lot of time (literally zero) wondering about the effect of the injury sub rule on the season, and given it was sprung as a surprise twist on the league by the AFL (in all likelihood to try to help Geelong’s Zimmer frame brigade get into another granny (double entendre meant), given their arthritis, osteoporosis and other age-related illnesses) I think the effort put in by myself (go me, well done coopers) I think I deserve a commendation for it (and my use of bracket(s) in sentences).

The conclusion I have come to is that the medical sub is a waste of a weekend for a young kid and probably also a waste for a senior, who statistically will only get less than a quarter on the field. May as well be helping the SANFL team.

So, here’s my proposal: assuming we have a tough time of the mid-season stretch and are tanking for draft picks (not that we’d do that *cough* Melbourne *cough*) I reckon we use the mid-season draft to pick up one of Otten, Mattner or Wright. Hell, Wright’s played games for us… last year-ish?

Stick with me. The game spent on the bench still counts to the player's game tally. They are on 98, 98 and 96 games respectively for the club. Surely they could (maybe contractually if required?) also have kids.

So thinking it through:
  • Unlikely to play.
  • If they have to play, we don’t really want to win anyway.
  • More father son/daughter selections.
Make it happen AFC.

Oh, titus.


FREO’S FENG SHUI
Also, I think it’s important to take this opportunity to have a go at Freo: I know it’s unwarranted, but “unsociable football” is still cool right? So logically we apply the same concept to our message boards. I have several issues.

Firstly, their symbol is an anchor. I can’t claim that psychologically this is an issue for a footballer. I do know that I worked for an organisation who had a poo emoji as their corporate logo, and it was hard to be taken seriously as a dairy products manufacturer.

Secondly, I simply can’t handle clubs that have “concepts” as their mascot. I mean the giants and the suns… that’s dumb, but those are at least “things”. A “Docker” is a job title, and the “Power” I mean, that’s a unit of measurement. This must get under control. What does the future hold if we continue to tolerate the intolerable? Tasmania’s expansion team to be called the “Tassie Cognitive Dissonance”? Where does this end?

Thirdly,
their song is something like “Freeeeeo, heave ho ho, tug and pull and give a ro-sham-bo, Freeeeo, yo ho ho, bottle of rum and a reindeer show”. Something along those lines. I’m not sure if it’s about Christmas, Pirates, swift kicks to the nuts or violent gastro. I am sure it’s not about football.


You poor kenny! Ah, it's 1995 again.


GOING ON RIGHT NOW - AFLW GRAND FINAL
Just pointing out that the grand final is on Saturday afternoon – get yourself there. Happy to say I saw the 2019 win live, looking for another one this year. Randall is out with concussion, so we don’t all get to see our favourite player play, unless your team Phillips. Which is reasonable, and I have a lot of respect for that perspective, but much like those creepy middle-aged women fangirling over the twilight movies appx 10 years ago, just pick team Jacob or team Edward and stick with it. They'll have more silverware than the mens team when we win this btw.
Chelsea.PNG

Goddamit.


SELECTIONS AND CONCERNS
So Freo’s midfield has Fyfe, Mundy and Brayshaw as a starting line-up. That’s pretty bloody good. Those guys are also huge in comparison to our midfield. Hopefully getting old. I think it’s a worry: for anyone paying attention it’s clear that we have periods (and they go for 15 minutes) where we can’t win a clearance and the ball spends the entire time in our defence. There’s significant risk this happens again, except unlike the Suns and Roos, Freo are likely to… actually be capable of kicking goals.

That leads to the next concern which is our defensive matchups, with Taberner, Meek and Darcy all being enormous man-mountains. Butts is big enough for one of them, but either Meek/Darcy will be roaming there at any point (the other one rucking). Without a change into the team then it’s Kelly or Doedee matching up on those guys. A lot of height to give away.

There’s also a rumour that Freo will select an underdone Rory Lobb which will make the above comment… even worserer. I’m actually in favour of that, as he’s… Ok as a footballer. Probably not that good if underdone. We should put Kelly on him to even out the Ok’ness. Then we can all go mild with ambivalence.

Changes for the crows – I think the reasonable consensus is that Frampton should play left-right-out. So given there’s no tall in the SANFL bashing the door down – I reckon it’s time to debut Riley Thilthorpe. We need to fast track the guy, he can’t be worse than Frampton, and a home ground debut against a not-top-8 team seems like the way to go.

We’re going to hit a patch of games in a few weeks where we play like… most of the current top 8 sides in a row. It’s going to be a tough stretch and Thilthorpe should be given the opportunity to debut in a game where the ball will actually be down his end a bit.

So that’s my one change – Thilthorpe in for Frampton.


CONCLUSION

Really not very confident about this one, but there’s a lot to like about what the crows have been doing in 2021. It’s at home.
Crows by 15 points.
 

Murray2503

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Freo don't travel well. In saying that they have a very good midfield which we will need to match. From what I saw last week their backline is a bit of a weakness and they can get scored against. Tbh I wouldn't have a clue which way this goes. I wouldn't be surprised if we win by 15 points or drop this one after our form last week.
 
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pjcrows

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Our first month has significantly exceeded expectations, but there were some signs on Sunday that we might hit a bit of a wall soon. Freo are a couple of years ahead of us in development, and have some big bodies. Their midfield is better than ours without Sloane. I think we might drop this one, actually.
 

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Betts are off

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 28, 2016
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Our first month has significantly exceeded expectations, but there were some signs on Sunday that we might hit a bit of a wall soon. Freo are a couple of years ahead of us in development, and have some big bodies. Their midfield is better than ours without Sloane. I think we might drop this one, actually.
I know what you mean, I feel like if we break even in the middle we go a long way to winning the game, as I believe our FWDs and Backs are playing better then theirs. But if their midfield dominates ours then we could be in for a long afternoon!
 

kulak

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STATS

Freo and Crows are both around 6th-8th for clearance differential and contested possession differential. Fremantle slightly ahead. However we won’t have Sloane so we probably get smoked.

Crows have uncontested possession differential of -2.2. Ok.

Fremantle have uncontested possession differential of -30! That’s awful!

They can win the ball but they can’t keep it / they can’t win it back off their opposition

Keys to the game:
1. Neutralise their clearance advantage
2. Go small and overwhelm their slow tall forwards with run
 

BACCS

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STATS

Freo and Crows are both around 6th-8th for clearance differential and contested possession differential. Fremantle slightly ahead. However we won’t have Sloane so we probably get smoked.

Crows have uncontested possession differential of -2.2. Ok.

Fremantle have uncontested possession differential of -30! That’s awful!

They can win the ball but they can’t keep it / they can’t win it back off their opposition

Keys to the game:
1. Neutralise their clearance advantage
2. Go small and overwhelm their slow tall forwards with run
Laird and Keays say hello to your comment about missing Sloane.
5F7D1DAB-D560-4505-ABC9-04ED2FCA54C7.jpeg


7C9F6830-38D3-4501-8C38-B02CD7FAD9BE.jpeg
 

GreyCrow

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Not sure what to think about win/loss on this game.

Is our position inflated or have we genuinely improved enough to beat Freo who were expected to be where we currently are

I havent been overly impressed by Freos form . 2 home wins and 2 away losses

A loss to Melbourne isnt now surprising given Melbournes form but the loss to Carlton (away) would have stalled any momentum they felt they had. Beating Hawks at home didnt seem convincing

I think Freo are relying on one or two again and hoping they have enough contributors to get by

I think this comes down to a home ground advantage - Crows by 15
 

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GreyCrow

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I would be using our lack of height as a positive. Instruct the backline to run off the taller players as much as possible - be the link person in a chain etc

Fremantle havent scored 100 points this year with 87 and 96 being their winning scores and 58 and 64 their losing scores. I would back Adelaide - our lowest score was 88 in our loss to Sydney - when it could have easily passed 100. Our wins have been 103,95 and 109
 

kulak

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Laird and Keays say hello to your comment about missing Sloane.
View attachment 1103520

View attachment 1103522
Thanks. The numbers really bring through how much of a downgrade Keays is from Sloane.

Sloane - 14.3 contested, 73.7 percent kick efficiency, 80 percent disposal efficiency, 16.5 metres gained per possession

Keays - 10.0 contested, 58.1 percent kick efficiency, 71.3 disposal efficiency, 19 metres gained per possession.

Sloane wins vastly more contested, uses the ball vastly more effectively, with almost the same distance per possession.

Obviously anyone who has ever watched the two players can tell the difference but it seemed worth spelling out to you since you posted that misleading summary.
 

Glenno23

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Hey guys,

Remember when we kept Freo to 1 goal in a match? That was a fun one

I also remember that Freo's only goal kicker was dropped the week after too. Harsh! :D

What a game that was

But i think Freo may kick more than 1 goal this weekend. We just need to ensure we score more than them to win it though
 

BACCS

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Thanks. The numbers really bring through how much of a downgrade Keays is from Sloane.

Sloane - 14.3 contested, 73.7 percent kick efficiency, 80 percent disposal efficiency, 16.5 metres gained per possession

Keays - 10.0 contested, 58.1 percent kick efficiency, 71.3 disposal efficiency, 19 metres gained per possession.

Sloane wins vastly more contested, uses the ball vastly more effectively, with almost the same distance per possession.

Obviously anyone who has ever watched the two players can tell the difference but it seemed worth spelling out to you since you posted that misleading summary.
Cool story, never said Keays was better than Sloane 🤪. Just pointing out that Keays and Laird are both also having very good seasons and mitigate the loss of Sloaney.
 

PCORF

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 3, 2007
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Should be a great game Sunday, the weather is going to be perfect, will suit Walker. Hopefully a nice close battle, anybody's game but a Crows win is always a bonus. Win this and we start the season 4-1 and could be a potential finals chance.
 

PCORF

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 3, 2007
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Hey guys,

Remember when we kept Freo to 1 goal in a match? That was a fun one

I also remember that Freo's only goal kicker was dropped the week after too. Harsh! :D

What a game that was

But i think Freo may kick more than 1 goal this weekend. We just need to ensure we score more than them to win it though
They only scored 1.7 that chilly night at footy park back in 2009.
 

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