T
Tim
Guest
In a thread earlier Dan24 posted the following which summarises well what many people feel about the home ground advantage/travelling issue:
"As for Crowmad. The non-victorian teams have to travel 10 time a year. Victorian teams have to travel 4 or 5 time a year. True.
BUT, Victorian teams don't have a home ground advantage (except Geelong). Vic teams play a hepa of neutral games (like Carlton home natch today against Richmond), where there is no advantage whatsoever.
This year, Essendon played 4 games where we had an advantage (when we payed interstate sides at Colonial). We also had 4 games where we were at a disadvantage (where we had to travel). The other 14 games were neutral.
So, our draw consisted of 4 advantageous games, and 4 dis-advantageous games.
Now look at West Coast and Adelaide. They had 10 games where they had an advantage. They also had 10 games where they were at a disadvantage (where they travelled)
They then had two neutral games (the local derbies)
So, as you can see, West Coast, Adelaide and Essendon are all treated the same in the draw. These three teams all had the exact same amount of advantageous games, and dis-advantageous games each, which cancel each other out."
Unfortunately this argument requires that the teams are all equally strong - ie chance decides the outcomes of neutral games.
To illustrate what I mean, assume that the HGA in a match against a team from another state is 20 points and there is no HGA in any neutral match.
Scenario 1: All teams are exactly the same strength except Essendon, who are 10 points per game better than every other team in the competition. How does their season look? 4 matches at home against non-Vic teams for 4 wins(10 point edge plus 20 point HGA), 14 neutral games against Vic opposition for 14 wins (each by about 10 points), 4 matches interstate for 4 losses (the 10 point superiority isn't quite enough to overcome the 20 point HGA). Net result 18-4.
Scenario 2: All teams are exactly the same strength except Adelaide, who are 10 points per game better than every other team in the competition. How does their season look? 10 matches at home against non-SA teams for 10 wins, 2 neutral games against Port for 2 wins (each by about 10 points), 10 matches interstate for 10 losses (the 10 point superiority isn't quite enough to overcome the 20 point HGA). Net result 12-10.
If you reverse it to make the team under question 10 points WORSE than all the other teams the results are Essendon 4-18 and Adelaide 10-12.
In conclusion, though this is a crude example , it suggests that the non-Vic teams have a propensity to be in the middle of the pack by winning at home often and losing away often. It is very hard for a non-Vic team to be minor premier or wooden spooner. That's why I expect the flags won by Adelaide to be more representative of the way flags are won by non-Vic clubs in the future than those by WCE who, despite the odds, managed to finish at or near the top of the ladder.
Note this statistical bias in the draw doesn't go away in a full 30 round H/A situation as the figures just change to Essendon 24-6 (or 6-24) and Adelaide 16-14 (or 14-16).
"As for Crowmad. The non-victorian teams have to travel 10 time a year. Victorian teams have to travel 4 or 5 time a year. True.
BUT, Victorian teams don't have a home ground advantage (except Geelong). Vic teams play a hepa of neutral games (like Carlton home natch today against Richmond), where there is no advantage whatsoever.
This year, Essendon played 4 games where we had an advantage (when we payed interstate sides at Colonial). We also had 4 games where we were at a disadvantage (where we had to travel). The other 14 games were neutral.
So, our draw consisted of 4 advantageous games, and 4 dis-advantageous games.
Now look at West Coast and Adelaide. They had 10 games where they had an advantage. They also had 10 games where they were at a disadvantage (where they travelled)
They then had two neutral games (the local derbies)
So, as you can see, West Coast, Adelaide and Essendon are all treated the same in the draw. These three teams all had the exact same amount of advantageous games, and dis-advantageous games each, which cancel each other out."
Unfortunately this argument requires that the teams are all equally strong - ie chance decides the outcomes of neutral games.
To illustrate what I mean, assume that the HGA in a match against a team from another state is 20 points and there is no HGA in any neutral match.
Scenario 1: All teams are exactly the same strength except Essendon, who are 10 points per game better than every other team in the competition. How does their season look? 4 matches at home against non-Vic teams for 4 wins(10 point edge plus 20 point HGA), 14 neutral games against Vic opposition for 14 wins (each by about 10 points), 4 matches interstate for 4 losses (the 10 point superiority isn't quite enough to overcome the 20 point HGA). Net result 18-4.
Scenario 2: All teams are exactly the same strength except Adelaide, who are 10 points per game better than every other team in the competition. How does their season look? 10 matches at home against non-SA teams for 10 wins, 2 neutral games against Port for 2 wins (each by about 10 points), 10 matches interstate for 10 losses (the 10 point superiority isn't quite enough to overcome the 20 point HGA). Net result 12-10.
If you reverse it to make the team under question 10 points WORSE than all the other teams the results are Essendon 4-18 and Adelaide 10-12.
In conclusion, though this is a crude example , it suggests that the non-Vic teams have a propensity to be in the middle of the pack by winning at home often and losing away often. It is very hard for a non-Vic team to be minor premier or wooden spooner. That's why I expect the flags won by Adelaide to be more representative of the way flags are won by non-Vic clubs in the future than those by WCE who, despite the odds, managed to finish at or near the top of the ladder.
Note this statistical bias in the draw doesn't go away in a full 30 round H/A situation as the figures just change to Essendon 24-6 (or 6-24) and Adelaide 16-14 (or 14-16).
