Analysis Father Son and Academy players bidding system

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RussellEbertHandball

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Nov 16, 2004
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Given we continually talk about father sons on this board and last year we snagged Howard and Austin from the GWS Academy, as they were overlooked by them, and future we might want to draft a player and might make the northern teams pay proper amount, I figure a refererence thread rather than stuff all over the Genral AFL thread is better.

My personal belief is that this system will eventually open it up for Port Adelaide to one day have a fully integrated Academy program, even more so than currently and we will use this bidding system as a way to get access to top end talent out of the Port Adelaide Football Academy.

Emma Quayle in her article gave a good summary of the basic workings. She also talks about how if the bidding one day will be done live on draft day it will make it a better system

New bidding system looks fairer for all
.......
GWS has two players likely to attract top-10 bids this year – Jacob Hopper and Matt Kennedy. Sydney has Callum Mills and potential father-son Josh Dunkley on the way.

So, do those clubs trade out a star this year to gain extra "points"? Do they decide they're well placed enough to concede their first pick in the 2016 draft? Do they wait until then to trade out for points they need? One thing is for sure: they're going to have to cast ahead as comprehensively as possible.
.....
Having to make tough decisions will mean the four clubs simply won't have the capacity to take every available player. They will have to let some go. Some of those players will be good players, who will strengthen the draft pool. What will make the new system perfect is if bidding is done live on draft night. Hopefully that will happen as soon as this year.

Under the outgoing system (where bidding was done before trading) clubs have not wanted to risk bidding picks they already have tied up in looming trades, or got together with others that morning to make sure someone sticks their hand up. They've bid for players knowing full well that the bid would be matched and that any bluff would not be called. Live bidding would mean recruiters know exactly which other players are still on the board when deciding whether to place a bid or match one. It would also liven up draft night.


New bidding system looks fairer for all
The new bidding system explained
  • Applies to father-son and northern academy players (Swans Academy, Giants Academy, Suns Academy and Lions Academy).
  • Every pick from 1-73 has been assigned a number of points on the Draft Value Index, which was created using player salary data from 2000-14 – ie, what the players chosen at each pick have gone on to earn. From pick 74, picks have zero value.
  • A minimum 20% discount has been applied to both father-son and academy players, to encourage clubs to continue investing in their eligible players.
  • From pick 19 onwards, the percentage discount will increase with each pick. A maximum 197 point discount (20% of pick 18) will instead be applied.
  • If a club chooses to match a bid for one of its player, it must effectively "buy" the pick used to bid for him using its points.
  • If a club doesn't have enough points to match the bid with its next available selection, further points will be deducted from its subsequent pick (and possibly one or two after that), with those picks moving down the order or to the back of the draft.
  • Draft picks will move up and down as bids are made and matched.
  • Clubs that do not have enough picks in one draft to match all bids will be in deficit heading into the following year's draft, with the remaining points to be deducted from their first round selection.
New bidding system looks fairer for all

another article from Emma explaining it further.
Clubs to pay high price for top-end draft talent under new bidding rules

You can download the 15 page booklet either at the first link as a pdf or the second as power point
Biding System PDF
Bidding System Power Point

A cut and paste from the document

AFL Draft Value Index Graph
upload_2015-5-22_17-54-57.png

Blue line - Raw data (AFL player salaries)
Red line - AFL Draft Value Index graph


AFL Draft Value Index
upload_2015-5-22_17-55-13.png




upload_2015-5-22_17-52-51.png



upload_2015-5-22_18-33-43.png


upload_2015-5-22_18-34-13.png


upload_2015-5-22_18-34-36.png



upload_2015-5-22_18-35-7.png



upload_2015-5-22_18-35-33.png






Here are a couple of long articles on the AFL site explaining things and northern clubs saying they are happy.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-05-...ed-for-fatherson-and-northern-academy-players

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-05-...system-closes-fatherson-and-academy-loopholes

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-05-21/northern-clubs-in-favour-of-new-bidding-system

 
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Boxx

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So, basically the picks that are "spent" on a player are just removed from the draft order and all the other teams move up into the vacant positions??
 

RussellEbertHandball

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How a father son example works. The lower value a father son or academy player is, the easier it is to work out the result.
Here Melbourne gives up 38 and ends up with Stretch and pick 71 when Adelaide put in pick 30 as their bid for him.

upload_2015-5-22_19-19-17.png



This examples shows how little you have to give up if someone bid a late 3rd round pick for the son and your next pick is early round 4. Freo bids pick 52, but the doggies get Cordy and only drop 5 spots in the draft from pick 61 to 66.

upload_2015-5-22_19-23-58.png
 

RussellEbertHandball

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So, basically the picks that are "spent" on a player are just removed from the draft order and all the other teams move up into the vacant positions??
Yep - and that's why Emma Quayle said Live bidding would mean recruiters know exactly which other players are still on the board when deciding whether to place a bid or match one. It would also liven up draft night.
 
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RussellEbertHandball

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I saw the graph on 360 and wondered if FS picks have skewed the value of the third rounders.
You probably have some bad ones to go with the good ones. Geelong had 3 or 4 duds to go with their 3 or 4 rippers. Its probably why the blue line salaries line goes dramatically above the read line at pick 36 or 37.
 

*PAF

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Have to say that at first glance I'm not a fan of the changes.
Make 2 rules one for FS and another for academies but give the new clubs FS rules for academies for a set period until they can catch up.

The way that picks devalue so quickly and some teams may need to use all of their picks to match an offer, give them the choice to use their higher pick, if they have one, for the player PLUS whatever pick makes up the difference.
 

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philthy05

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Hmmm your first three draft picks for Isaac heeney? That's a big risk for a club if the player may not turn out.

Oh well. Priority picks got turfed as soon as port started bottoming out, can't wait to see when a port boy through and through requires us to throw in o ur entire draft just to get him while vic clubs run around with sons of hundred gamers they got with 3rd picks help them to grand final wins.
 

Porked04

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Nice work REH. Really excited about the Academy possibility. We've done a fantastic job the past few years developing our draft picks and I'd back our coaches to unearth some gems.

From a supporters perspective who followed the Maggies, it's such a thrill to see a local kid represent the club in the AFL. If it all comes together, a terrific initiative
 

RussellEbertHandball

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Hmmm your first three draft picks for Isaac heeney? That's a big risk for a club if the player may not turn out.

Oh well. Priority picks got turfed as soon as port started bottoming out, can't wait to see when a port boy through and through requires us to throw in o ur entire draft just to get him while vic clubs run around with sons of hundred gamers they got with 3rd picks help them to grand final wins.
Look what Carlton gave up for Judd in 2007 - he went pick 3 back in 2001 which was a Superdraft and 2007 was relatively average. They gave up 3, 20 and Kennedy, so a top 3 pick is probably worth 3 player/pick combo.
 

FallingLiefs

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This is by far the best equality measure of the last few years. People can complain about the complexity but if a simpler system was available it would have been used. my mind is probably more mathmatically based than others but this is an extremely succinct and clean way to deal with pick valuation. As far as acadamies go this is perfect to allow both equality for all clubs and incentives for the few that are able to run them. father sons wise I can see why
some of us don't want this involved, however GWS and GC will still be years away from being able to deliver on some F+S's. If the AFL is truely going to preach equality they need to introduce the rule for father sons even if it is handicapping every club bar GC and GWS who are already kissed on the dick. Live draft bidding with a full draft board of ANY kid will make the draft a much better spectacle also.
 

simmo_bc

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how does the bidding system work, if for example, the PAFC has x2 gun selections in the same year? would we have to forgo one?
 

RussellEbertHandball

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how does the bidding system work, if for example, the PAFC has x2 gun selections in the same year? would we have to forgo one?
What do you mean? The Academy players only mean the Sydney, GWS, GC and Brisbane acadamies. There arent 2 gun father sons around on the horizon so the question is mute.

But if you want to see the example of how Sydney would have had to deal with Heeney and Hiscox in 2014 under the system see page 13 at the link below which goes with the Heeney bid on page 9 and i put in post # 1.

Bidding System Power Point
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
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how does the bidding system work, if for example, the PAFC has x2 gun selections in the same year? would we have to forgo one?
I think I know what you are getting at now. You have to keep giving up all your draft picks, and if you are still in deficit after all your picks are exhausted, then you carry those negative points into next draft.

So lets say you have a carry forward of negative 80 points and our first pick is pick 11.
Pick 11 1,329
Pick 12 1,268
Pick 13 1,212

so 1,329 - 80 = 1,249 means pick 11 drops to pick 13.
 
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TeeKray

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I've got a better idea. Allow all academy players to be selected in the main draft and if not selected then Sydney/GWS/Brisbane/Gold Coast are allowed to draft them onto a supplementary list as some kind of extra category of rookie. If those academies were all about developing talent and providing a pathway to the elite level then that solution would work perfectly. But they aren't about that. They are about providing unfair advantages to clubs in developing markets. And this is a pathetic attempt at appeasing the other 14 clubs that are put at a distinct disadvantage.
 

Portmanteau

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On a closer look, the system actually seems half decent.

Melbourne bidding pick 2 for Heeney, with Sydney having pick 18 is an extreme example. It's the difference in values of the first round picks that make a big difference.


Seems like in other scenarios, it'll pretty much pan out as is.
 

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