Fault Lines emerge on the Gulf as Qatar is cut off

[Sydneyfan]

Interesting developments in the Persian Gulf yesterday as Saudi Arabia - quickly followed by the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt along with other nations such as the Maldives and Mauritius cut ties with Qatar. These cuts are said to be regards to Qatar's funding of terror groups such as the Islamic Brotherhood and, though not explicitly stated, related to Qatar's healthy relationship with Saudi Arabia's arch-nemesis, Iran.

Qatari citizens have been given two weeks to leave the nations involved in this blockade, and air, freight, land and water links have already been closed and/or diverted as well as Qatar being ordered to cease its joint involvement with other Gulf states in Yemen.

Ignoring the incredible irony of Saudi Arabia, the founder and chief financier of Wahabbist Islam - the draconian sect of Islam which is the source of the vast majority of Islamic terrorism, and these other nations ceasing trade and relations with Qatar over terrorism concerns; this is a significant and rapidly escalating development that could spiral out of control quickly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...eak-diplomatic-ties-with-qatar-over-terrorism

 

[rippersnipper]

Lol, the saudis are the biggest load of campaigners going around. Qatar must be funding the wrong kind of terrorists i guess.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Pretty sure we've been on this merry go round before - gives the Saudis a convenient "look over there!" issue to distract from the fact their citizens remain the biggest private funders of extremism on the planet.

The Qataris will huff and puff for a week, then they'll symbolically deport a couple of Muslim Brotherhood and/or Hamas members, then things will revert to normal.

 

[cartwright]

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Unlikely-Alliance-Between-Russia-And-Saudi-Arabia.html

feel like its less about terrorism, and more about $$

 

[Brunswick Trap King]

It's time to turn the OPEC into the NOPEC

 

[Total Power]

As a QR platinum member this affects me a lot. Supposed to fly into Dubai in 14 days on Qatar Airways, not sure what will happen now.

 

[cannot]

house of saad taking the piss lol

 

[Sydneyfan]

Not directly related but in the past two hours there's been the first IS attacks on Iranian soil at Ayatollah Khomeini tomb and Parliament while Germany has decided to withdrawal troops and surveillance planes from Turkey's Incirlik air base.

The Middle East is extremely unstable at the moment - even by its standards - can't help but think Saudi Arabia, emboldened by Trump's visit, is ratcheting up the stakes. Think public opinion in the West, outside of the US, re Saudi Arabia is finally changing with people realising which nation is the greatest destabiliser and threat to the region and beyond.

 

[szhengd]

Turkey now supporting Qatar. Given Trumps support of Erdogan and the Saudi's, this must be starting to get confusing for him

 

[Mofra]

Turkey now supporting Qatar. Given Trumps support of Erdogan and the Saudi's, this must be starting to get confusing for him

Almost as confusing as Syria once you throw in the PKK & the Russians and Israel's fear of a consistent supply line between Hamas and Tehran which means proxy support for IS. Almost.

 

[Total Power]

They are trying to point at Russia for a hack of Aljazeera at the moment. IMO Israel may be the culprit. Leaked UAE emails also suggested a sustained campaign against Qatar has been planned. Qatar main 'mistake' was trying to juggle a double edged game. It should have kept out of regime change in both Libya and Syria.

 

[szhengd]

MSNBC reporting that white house officials are stating that Trump may not have known that Qatar housed the US Middle East operational centre for the US Army. (No link) Mindblowing if true, but with the bar quite low, not surprising.

 

[Sydneyfan]

Shirvan at Caspian Report has a great breakdown of the Qatar Crisis. No innocent parties in this mess, though I have particular disdain for Qatar, Saudi Arabia & Turkey - and to a lesser degree Russia and the US along with others - for their meddling in Syria and before, Libya. Trump's recent actions in regards to Saudi Arabia are incredibly reckless, naive and stupid - even by his lofty standards - Riyadh must be loving this administration.

 

[Elroo]

Now Turkey has committed to deploying military forces to Qatar in support of the government against SA.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

My guess, SA et al. want to use Qatar as a future staging point against Iran.

Despite religious differences, Iran and Qatar have warm diplomatic relations as they share a gas field and have long been forced to work together. Qatar has indicated it doesn't want to take a hard line against Iran. That is what has likely emboldened the Saudis.

It is no surprise Trump's winding up of rhetoric, has corresponded with the attack on Iran and isolation of Qatar.

The thing is, Iran and Qatar control huuuuuuge gas resources, plus both Turkey and Russia, are a gateway to Europe. Iran has also carved a path through Syria and Iraq to the sea, by defeating Sunni militants and forming strong ties with locals. For control of future gas supply, this emboldens Turkey to form an alliance with Qatar and not get in Iran's way, since an overland pipeline, or port could sit within Turkish soil. Huge money to be made for Qatar, Turkey and Iran.

It is also why Germany is getting involved. They want to ensure European energy security. And one reason Trump has probably been encouraged to be pissed at Germany.

So where do things get messy. The Israelis hate Iran. Partly justified and partly about wanting to be the only dominant regional advanced economy. Iran is in a shambles now, but have a long history of scientific and engineering achievement. They also have a high research output despite hardship. If given access to the global market, the country would likely modernise and develop rapidly, stepping up as a regional force in trade and industry.

Turkey also buys cheap oil from extremists in Syria. The current government also back extremists in Yemen. This has caused issues with Iran. But, Turkey is the largest investor in Iranian Natural as extraction. $30 billion in trade, which could skyrocket as Iranian and Qatari fields are developed and Europe moves away from coal, should defeat sectarian fighting.

The Sauds also hate Iran. Their reasons are religious. Iran has also been the biggest enemy of Saud funded extremists. Not Israel, not the US, not Turkey.

SA, Qatar, Iran and Russia also all compete in an oversupplied oil market and one where the previous biggest global consumer now produces most of it's own supply or buys off Canada.

Finally the US. There is no one agenda. Israel sympathetic politicians want to target Iran. Those who hate Obama want to undo the deal. Neocons believe in playing Sunni and Shiite against one another. Many generals bear a grudge over past proxy fights. Trump is just a maniacal goof.

The thing is, they would make a great US ally.

 

[Roylion]

The Israelis hate Iran.

Not surprising given the constant anti-Israeli rhetoric coming from the Iranian leadership, including the oft-reperated desire that Israel be destroyed. Earlier this year for example, Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani pledged more aid for Palestinians fighting against Israel. He called Israel a "fake regime". Only a day earlier Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called Israel a "cancerous tumour".

 

[DivideandMultiply]

Not surprising given the constant anti-Israeli rhetoric coming from the Iranian leadership, including the oft-reperated desire that Israel be destroyed. Earlier this year for example, Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani pledged more aid for Palestinians fighting against Israel. He called Israel a "fake regime". Only a day earlier Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called Israel a "cancerous tumour".

TBH, 90% of it is theatre. They would never wage war against Israel if given the opportunity and most of the population are trying to move past the nutty Mullahs and religious extremists.

I see it as no different to Bibi, or Bush's inflammatory rhetoric, or the extreme opinions you read in the press and social media, calling for Iran to be nuked and so on. How many Republican politicians have declared Iran should be attacked or wiped out? A lot.

It's all self reinforcing idiocy, conservative extremists in the three countries feed of the oppositional rhetoric. However it is the US and Israel which have pushed for war, which is unfortunate.

My position, I have no sympathy for the Iranian theocrats, who are chronic violent rights abusers. I do however, wish that the US would stop pushing for conflict as a free and open Iran would likely diminish the extreme political forces. It is the regular people of the region, Israel, Iran etc. that suffer. Iran's government is the result of UK/US meddling, for once we need to step away from the region.

 

[Roylion]

TBH, 90% of it is theatre. They would never wage war against Israel if given the opportunity and most of the population are trying to move past the nutty Mullahs and religious extremists.

Of course it is. However the fact remains that Iran rejects a two state solution in Palestine and consequently does not recognise Israel's right to exist, continues to fund Hezbollah and reportedly until 2015 Hamas.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

Of course it is. However the fact remains that Iran rejects a two state solution in Palestine and consequently does recognise Israel's right to exist, continues to fund Hezbollah and reportedly until 2015 Hamas.

Many in the Israeli government would not support a two state solution either. That is an intractable mess with little chance of resolution. The support for Hezbollah is inexcusable, but so is our support for SA and various rebel groups.

I just see so little gain in Western involvement in the ME. US businesses have a fair few dollars tied up there, but really it is Europe, not the US/Aus/Canada which need their resources. It poses a security risk, costs billions, leads to death and destruction.

 

[Maggie5]

Must admit that I don't know enough about the boycott/blockade but found that listening to BBC Radio last night was very interesting.
I do think that even if we cut the head of ISIS, another one will pop up, the area is stuffed.
Had a varied group of guests (although one was very pro SA) and well moderated if you want to listen:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p055c9hl

 

[Northalives]

On Friday, the 9th of June, 2017, Donald Trump said, "The nation of Qatar unfortunately has historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level so we had a decision to make, do we take the easy road or do we finally take a hard but necessary action. We have to stop the funding of terrorism. I decided ... the time had come to call on Qatar to end its funding,” whilst stressing that he had helped plan the move by Gulf states to cut ties.

On Wednesday, the 14th of June, 2017, Donald Trump and his United States Government signed a deal with Qatar whereby Qatar agreed to buy 36, F-15 fighter jets from the United States for $12 billion.

War Against Terror American style.

 

[Established1870]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-issues-qatar-with-13-demands-to-end-blockade

Now those Saudi turds want al-Jazeera shut down along with Qatar to fall in line with other countries like the UAE and Bahrain for the blockade to be lifted.

The 13 demands in full

1. Curb diplomatic ties with Iran and close its diplomatic missions there. Expel members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and cut off any joint military cooperation with Iran. Only trade and commerce with Iran that complies with US and international sanctions will be permitted.
   
2. Sever all ties to “terrorist organisations”, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, al-Qaida and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Formally declare those entities as terrorist groups.
3. Shut down al-Jazeera and its affiliate stations.
4. Shut down news outlets that Qatar funds, directly and indirectly, including Arabi21, Rassd, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed and Middle East Eye.
5. Immediately terminate the Turkish military presence in Qatar and end any joint military cooperation with Turkey inside Qatar.
6. Stop all means of funding for individuals, groups or organisations that have been designated as terrorists by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, the US and other countries.
7. Hand over “terrorist figures” and wanted individuals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain to their countries of origin. Freeze their assets, and provide any desired information about their residency, movements and finances.
8. End interference in sovereign countries’ internal affairs. Stop granting citizenship to wanted nationals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. Revoke Qatari citizenship for existing nationals where such citizenship violates those countries’ laws.
9. Stop all contacts with the political opposition in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. Hand over all files detailing Qatar’s prior contacts with and support for those opposition groups.
10. Pay reparations and compensation for loss of life and other, financial losses caused by Qatar’s policies in recent years. The sum will be determined in coordination with Qatar.
11. Consent to monthly audits for the first year after agreeing to the demands, then once per quarter during the second year. For the following 10 years, Qatar would be monitored annually for compliance.
12. Align itself with the other Gulf and Arab countries militarily, politically, socially and economically, as well as on economic matters, in line with an agreement reached with Saudi Arabia in 2014.
13. Agree to all the demands within 10 days of it being submitted to Qatar, or the list becomes invalid.

 

[76woodenspooners]

On Friday, the 9th of June, 2017, Donald Trump said, "The nation of Qatar unfortunately has historically been a funder of terrorism at a very high level so we had a decision to make, do we take the easy road or do we finally take a hard but necessary action. We have to stop the funding of terrorism. I decided ... the time had come to call on Qatar to end its funding,” whilst stressing that he had helped plan the move by Gulf states to cut ties.

On Wednesday, the 14th of June, 2017, Donald Trump and his United States Government signed a deal with Qatar whereby Qatar agreed to buy 36, F-15 fighter jets from the United States for $12 billion.

War Against Terror American style.

"Who's your daddy?" Qatari style

 

[szhengd]

It's similar to the demands Austria made on Serbia to start WW1. I wonder what the end game is for the Saudi's? Annexation of Qatar? I'm also pretty sure that the White House has no contingency plan for this, if it does turn into a shooting war

 

[madmug]

It's similar to the demands Austria made on Serbia to start WW1. I wonder what the end game is for the Saudi's? Annexation of Qatar? I'm also pretty sure that the White House has no contingency plan for this, if it does turn into a shooting war

Donnie the deal maker will win, by selling arms to both sides. He's probably cooking up a deal now to sell arms to NK. Imagine the repeat business for US arms makers. Donnie would get a decent service fee of course.