Favourites from here

[fishardansin]

Ok ladies and gents. We've seen all the teams play now and the quarter finals look pretty much established. With

NZ vs Ire/WI .......... SA vs SL ............ Aus vs Pak ....... Ind vs Bang
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Any of NZ, SA, India and Australia can win from here. I think Australia will beat Pakistan in Adelaide, India in Sydney and NZ at MCG.

What are your feelings about the tournament from here?

 

[Power Raid]

So it gets interesting pretty soon then?

 

[The Passenger]

The QF spots in Group B are kinda weird.

Windies should finish 4th, with whoever winning out of Ireland and Pakistan finishing 3rd and the loser finishing 5th.

If Ireland lose they can't finish 4th because their NRR is already worse than the Windies. if Pakistan lose they could finish 4th, but you'd reckon they would drop below the Windies on NRR.

The above all assumes Windies beat the UAE, and quite heavily. An NR between Ire and Pak would knock the Windies out.

As for the OP question? Too hard to say. Hard to see anything other than the four favourites in the SF, and from there it's about as open as you could possibly get.

 

[Pera]

Who knows what Pakistan will do. Their bowling when on song is right up there. Probably one of the few sides who can skittle the opposition for under 200.

I think NZ are due a slip up and a loss for them in the group stages wouldnt have done them any harm. Australia IMO are the favorites.

South Africa scratchy and too many question marks on the XI heading into a major cup knockout clash. Maybe the Windies will surprise everyone?

 

[ioppolo]

I just want Bangladesh to beat India. The uproar back there would be huge. Effigies will be burnt.

 

[Oaktree]

There's usually one upset in the quarters.

Out of the 4 teams as underdogs, Sri Lanka on form and paper are the strongest.

All the other three teams have the ability to upset though, so I don't expect to see 4 blowout victories by the favourites.

Even if Ireland get through, if they are chasing anywhere around 300, they too are a chance.

 

[Aussie_boy]

I will say one thing, Australia vs Pakistan in Adelaide should be a lot closer than what people will expect. If it was anywhere else in Australia then i'd say Australia easily.

 

[footyfan1978]

I will say one thing, Australia vs Pakistan in Adelaide should be a lot closer than what people will expect. If it was anywhere else in Australia then i'd say Australia easily.

Cannot see it. Think Australia will make mince meat of Pakistan in that game.
South Africa if playing Sri Lanka will be favourite, but boy if South Africa get nervous they could seriously get done.

India should account for Bangladesh but Bangladeshi's will go in with freedom of nothing to lose and daring to win. On the flipside India could feel the heat of 1.2 billion people expecting them to win and fearing the horror of a loss at that stage as the defending title holders.
Makes for interesting Quarter Finals and finally the World Cup hitting serious stage after a long drawn out wait to get to the real deal.

I'm still seeing Australia v New Zealand final at MCG as most likely but would be just as happy to see Australia and South Africa play off. AB de Villiers and Steyn on the big stage would be good to see and same with some of Aussie stars. I'd expect a great final. From memory we not really had a good final since the 1987 World Cup. I remember some of the semi-finals as being the better games to watch. In any case cannot wait for the real World Cup to start of 8 nations trying to win 3 knock out games to take the World Cup title.

 

[PTizzle]

Really rooting for Ireland to get into the QFs, going to be a very tense game on Sunday. Has some bearing on Australia too - if I've got the format right (I may not) and they win (and the Windies beat the UAE by enough) then we could well be playing them.

Apart from that it really looks pretty open like others have said. All the quarter finalists have a realistic chance to win their match-up with a bit of luck. India are definitely the villain for me after England got knocked out but apart from them I reckon all the possible final matchups look very enticing. Hell, India may well make it (they've been pretty bloody impressive, especially given their performances leading up to the WC) but tbh it'll make for a fantastic atmosphere so can't really complain there either.

Group stages have definitely petered out, the last few days especially have shown how silly it is to stick with their 1 game a day except on weekends format. But getting excited now that the big games are coming up fast.

 

[the_interloper]

I will say one thing, Australia vs Pakistan in Adelaide should be a lot closer than what people will expect. If it was anywhere else in Australia then i'd say Australia easily.

I think Pakistan could beat us anywhere anytime on their day. They're also just as likely to get skittled for 130 as well which always makes their games interesting. We should beat them but you never know.

 

[fishardansin]

We haven't seen NZ bowling in Australia where there seems to be less swing.

I also think NZ and SA are too dependent upon one batsman. Both have been great but I'm not sure you could rely upon them to go well in 3 knockout games in a row. Australia have three dynamic batsmen in Finch, Warner and Maxwell but despite a big score against a minnow for Warner I'm not confident in either opener's form. Finally batting Watson down the order makes a much better batting line up too.

Australia has some great bowling fire power and Johnson will be better when he starts bowling to better plans. However no good spinners will hurt. Vettori will be even more valuable on the MCG with the bigger boundaries.

I have the two home teams as favourites because of more sustained recent form, home ground advantage and more depth.

SA can beat anyone as they have the batsman and bowler with the highest ceiling. I won't back India in to beat either home side at home. I actually think that while form has taken longer to improve for Australia it has improved more as a side since triseries than India has, Watson down the order plus Clarke and Johnson.

My gut is telling me that SA will upset NZ and meet Australia at the G.

 

[fishardansin]

Also re the format two pools of 8 is a disgrace.

16 teams is right but I'd have top eight teams seeded and then make 4 groups of four with a draw for the placement of non seeded team. Three games each in group stage, two from same group each day. That way group will be over in twelve days of cricket and with one day a week with no games will see group stage done 12 days. Each group will have one day where two seeded teams play each other and winner will guarantee a quarter final and the bottom two will play their mini final with the loser having no chance of progressing from the group stage.

Group stage games can be Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday.

The quarter finals can be played one at a time Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, followed by semifinals Thursday, Friday and final on Sunday.

Tournament done in 3.5 weeks. That means it could be played every two years. This would make the lead up games more important for seeding so less junk cricket. The non test playing nations could compete in a two year cycle for the last 6 spots.

I'd also like 20twenty to be a biannual tournament. I'd also like club 20twenty in southern hemisphere to be like super rugby with teams from NZ and SA included.

 

[The Passenger]

Really rooting for Ireland to get into the QFs, going to be a very tense game on Sunday. Has some bearing on Australia too - if I've got the format right (I may not) and they win (and the Windies beat the UAE by enough) then we could well be playing them.

barring any wild results (Ire-Pak NR, UAE beating WIN) then we will play the winner of Ireland and Pakistan, with West Indies slotting in fourth.

 

[Kram]

If the planets align for them on their day Pakistan are more than capable of upsetting Australia in Adelaide.

 

[GOAUS!]

SA vs SL and India vs Bangladesh are the only QFs I'd be confident in calling now. South Africa haven't been all that convincing so far either, wouldn't be surprised if Sri Lanka got over the top of them.

Whatever happens the likely semis for me are NZ vs SA/SL and Aus vs India.

 

[1990crow]

I wouldnt be discounting SL to beat SA. And Kiwis could have a bad game. Pretty open I think.

 

[MWPP]

I also think NZ and SA are too dependent upon one batsman..

Which one batsman are NZ dependent on out of interest? I sense you were referring to BMac but apart from the SL game (where Corey Anderson starred with the bat and chipped in with the ball) and today's game against Bangladesh (where Guptill top-scored for NZ) , NZ's batsmen haven't been winning games, the bowlers have! As reflected by how 3 of NZ's bowlers feature in the top wicket takers in this tournament, but the batsmen don't really feature. If anything, Williamson/BMac have been our most consistent (with HM to Anderson), which was why today's win was pleasing (NZ won despite them both failing, though in Williamson's case, it was after limited preparation due to severe gastro)

 

[bird_man]

I'm not sure how NZ's bowlers will go when the ball isn't swinging? I think they really rely on a bit of movement to be able to win.

Then again, all sides have their weakness.

 

[evdo1706]

I'm not sure how NZ's bowlers will go when the ball isn't swinging? I think they really rely on a bit of movement to be able to win.

Then again, all sides have their weakness.

That is why I feel playing solely in NZ may turn out to be a big disadvantage if they reach the final. They haven't played in Australia for a very long time.

 

[fishardansin]

Why have Australia gone to NZ in both world cups? Surely if they want to maximise audience it makes sense to play the game at MCG.

 

[Crawb]

If the planets align for them on their day Pakistan are more than capable of upsetting Australia in Adelaide.

True. But they are a team that is either on it, or completely dreadful. Ireland are more than capable of easily disposing the later. I don't think it's a given Pakistan go through to the quarter finals.

 

[bombersfan4000]

I will say one thing, Australia vs Pakistan in Adelaide should be a lot closer than what people will expect. If it was anywhere else in Australia then i'd say Australia easily.

That depends what Pakistan side turn up. They are like the West Indies Unpredictabe. It could be a great game or a walk in the park for the Aussies

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

I just want Bangladesh to beat India. The uproar back there would be huge. Effigies will be burnt.

Remember when they played Sri Lanka in the 1996 semi finals at Kolkata? The Lankans made around 250 for memory, and the the Indians were getting bowled out for a low tally, somewhere around the 120s, and when they lost their 8th wicket the crowd didn't like the way the game was going so they rioted India's hilarious when they lose.

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

I reckon the Saffers will knock the Kiwis out. South Africa to win it.

 

[Richard Pryor]

That depends what Pakistan side turn up. They are like the West Indies Unpredictabe. It could be a great game or a walk in the park for the Aussies

Their top order is as reliable as Afridi except for Misbah