Racing February Daily Punt - Still A 100% Danny Nikolic Free Zone

[FallingLiefs]

Dreadful weekend looking to get out Pinjarra quad

Hope you had that one because I certainly didn't

 

[Gavin Excell]

Hope you had that one because I certainly didn't

Alive

 

[FallingLiefs]

There's the big boy, He has arrived

 

[juice t]

Dutch Spy making sure the First 4 didn't pay $60

 

[greekstyler]

Moral beaten there Cup Night. All that commotion behind the barriers cost it.

 

[iluvparis]

Moral beaten there Cup Night. All that commotion behind the barriers cost it.

smashed the peloton. Just forgot about the breakaway

 

[FallingLiefs]

Moral beaten there Cup Night. All that commotion behind the barriers cost it.

I don't think I have ever seen a moral beat get rolled by 4L and after that race I still haven't. Needs to put himself into races better.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Simonelly/Bring Euro really the only 2 I can find to roll Cornflower.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Mandela Effect
Deroche
Toorak Affair

multi

take 2 on Wednesday

 

[FallingLiefs]

When a large percentage of your all bets settle in the first 4, long straights feel like hell during the run.

This Straight is DEATHHHHH

Last Stride again

 

[iluvparis]

Beauty Generation squibbing Dubai

 

[Slipps]

Saw Hawkshot running around again in Honkers.. failed to run a drum thou

 

[HeathySure]

That is extremely dodgy Thought Of That.
Imagine going from opening 2nd fave in a VRC Derby to coming 2nd last at Ballarat the next start.

I have always found that horses that resume from Derbies, unless they are top class which is rare these days given most of them avoid the Derby take a while to hit top form and they are always a stay away from me. mainly because they are almost always dour stayers, BUT fillies resuming from oaks are a gold mine, most of them are 1600m horses having a fling at the stumps and have a little bit of class so when they resume over shorter distances sprint much better.
I have done well backing fillies resuming in the autumn because of this, especially if they resume in restricted races

 

[HeathySure]

I just had a look at the full VRC derby fields for the last 5 years... oh boy...ultimately full of benchmark 58 horses

 

[AvantGardener]

Adelaide Ace and a few hacks also accounted for Miami Bound easily 1st up.

 

[iluvparis]

Adelaide Ace and a few hacks also accounted for Miami Bound easily 1st up.

I get the feeling some of the O'Brien horses 'peaked' last Spring #nowhatimsayin

 

[Gavin Excell]

Just on the topic of the dearth of Australian middle distance WFA horses, anyone know anything about Addeyeb?

I see it’s $4.50 favourite for the Ranvet next month

 

[iluvparis]

Just on the topic of the dearth of Australian middle distance WFA horses, anyone know anything about Addeyeb?

I see it’s $4.50 favourite for the Ranvet next month

Poison - needs it to be bottomless to have any hope and even then it is probably unders. I'd back Avi to beat it on a bog.

 

[onebillsdrive]

Just on the topic of the dearth of Australian middle distance WFA horses, anyone know anything about Addeyeb?

I see it’s $4.50 favourite for the Ranvet next month

Beat magic wand at Royal Ascot and has a very good record....seems more like a 2000m horse and needs it wet but hey

 

[iluvparis]

Beat magic wand at Royal Ascot and has a very good record....seems more like a 2000m horse but hey

Poor mans Nature Strip who mixes his form a lot - and as I said - will need it to be bottomless. Makes the $4.50 a terrible proposition right now for mine.

DP at the same price in the QE is an infinitely better bet.

 

[mcnulty]

I just had a look at the full VRC derby fields for the last 5 years... oh boy...ultimately full of benchmark 58 horses

I wonder if the ATC Derby would be much different. Take a few decent kiwis out and the honour roll of late doesn’t look too hot.

Thought Warning was ok in what looked like a barrier trial on the weekend. Soul Patch was good last week. Hopefully a couple of these can progress to at least the Autumn 3yo features.

Then of course we can all bet around them as 4yos in early Cups markets.

 

[iluvparis]

Ok so I just looked at Ranvet market and Master Of Wine is a $3.50 fave - compared to that Addeyb is the bet of the millenium

 

[iluvparis]

I wonder if the ATC Derby would be much different. Take a few decent kiwis out and the honour roll of late doesn’t look too hot.

Yeah the Criterion-Dundeel-Mangolian Khan period has probably saved it from getting more attention for a s**t honour roll for a few years

 

[Gavin Excell]

Yeah the Criterion-Dundeel-Mangolian Khan period has probably saved it from getting more attention for a s**t honour roll for a few years

AJC Derby is the superior event for no other reason than its 6 months later in the 3yo year

 

[HeathySure]

AJC Derby is the superior event for no other reason than its 6 months later in the 3yo year

yep for sure although last years was horrendous