Racing February Daily Punt - The Messiah Returns (Winx not Palcatino)

[LukeParkerno1]

Hartnell will have Ranvet & BMW at his mercy though. That's when Oshea will clean up!

Which in typical O'Shea fashion means he won't enter Hartnell in them lol

 

[iluvparis]

Extreme Choice is a moral in Oakleigh Plate. Just load up.

Barrier won't matter. Draws well he settles close, draws out he sits off them and runs them down.

xxx 3yo is a moral in the xxx race against older horses theory has gone well so far this Autumn

And that's been WFA! Assume he will be pretty badly off at the weights?

 

[iluvparis]

Out of interest what do you make of Inference?
Last spring, first up on the weekend, and going forward this Autumn?

Gut call is its the classic horse that runs places in the VRC Derby lead ups and Derby and that doesn't do much better than that in the Autumn. Having said that all the 3yos look average to me so not ruling out any horse snagging a win somewhere.

In summary - no real thoughts - happy to watch the 3yos taking turns until something excites me (outside current 3yo of the Autumn Man From Uncle).

 

[iluvparis]

There is nothing I'd find funnier than Hartnell getting stomped by Winx a couple of times and then heading to the BMW and getting rolled by some pox 3yo who leads all the way at a crawl

Would be classic Lol'Shea stuff.

 

[iluvparis]

So have finally got around to seeing that HORROR Country/Provincial championships add the Liefz keeps talking about.

The chick in the black hat/white dress they have modeled one of the cartoon characters off is actually a friend of mine

 

[LukeParkerno1]

There is nothing I'd find funnier than Hartnell getting stomped by Winx a couple of times and then heading to the BMW and getting rolled by some pox 3yo who leads all the way at a crawl

Would be classic Lol'Shea stuff.

It will be one for the picture gallery...and typical O'Shea!

 

[FallingLiefs]

An unlucky second would be real nice re: extreme choice.

 

[rideclutch]

xxx 3yo is a moral in the xxx race against older horses theory has gone well so far this Autumn

And that's been WFA! Assume he will be pretty badly off at the weights?

Don't care if he has 70, still backing him. Not like he's $2.20 either.

Never rated the Guineas colts so no surprise they're getting beaten at Hawkesbury. Sprinters yeah, will give you the tick but that was against proper horses on the weekend, this is a G2 race at best. Can sit off them and peel or sit handy and sprint.

Fell Swoop is honest at the level but hardly a star, deadset guessing if you're backing Hellbent. Moderate conveyances the rest. #teamextreme

 

[Duritz]

Flying Artie wins the Newmarket.

#comeatmebrosef

 

[iluvparis]

Don't care if he has 70, still backing him. Not like he's $2.20 either.

Never rated the Guineas colts so no surprise they're getting beaten at Hawkesbury. Sprinters yeah, will give you the tick but that was against proper horses on the weekend, this is a G2 race at best. Can sit off them and peel or sit handy and sprint.

Fell Swoop is honest at the level but hardly a star, deadset guessing if you're backing Hellbent. Moderate conveyances the rest. #teamextreme

Fell Swoop has had the measure of Catavista for about the last year and he was too good for the A-team last week

 

[FallingLiefs]

Just got a text re: suggested stallion coverings shortlist for the comin' season for a mare.

Ranked as such

.......So barring anything jumping out of the ground in the next two months this is how it looks

Extreme Choice (NaSD) ?*
Astern ( Medaglia) ?**
Xtravagant (Pentire/ Zabeel/Centaine) 15k**
Comin' Through (Fastnet rock/mica's) ?
Denman (marjoram) 16k*
Pride of Dubai (Machiavellian) 55k
Palentino (teofilo/Sovereign red) ?*
Safeguard (marjoram) 9k

But of course the real question is what the punting board thinks. So many strong options.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Being from Tassie, I still like trying to find a winner in the Launceston Cup every year. It's tough to find a standout this year.

- Count Da Vinci won the Hobart Cup a few weeks ago, has beaten most of the horses in this race this prep, and beat home Launceston Cup favourite Big Duke in the Hobart.
- Big Duke is a Weir trained horse that has won at Moonee Valley and Caulfield this prep before losing the Hobart, and seems a touch underpriced at $2.20.
- Unfurl is another Weir trained horse who was nowhere a couple of months ago, but has since won a country cup before winning at Caulfield and seems a good insurance policy. Opened the betting at $12 and is now into $5.

It's always difficult when top trainers take 2 horses down - especially when Weir has had a few attempts at the Launceston without winning it. It'll end up being a classic "watch the money" race I think. If Unfurl shortens any further, it's clearly become one of those hot tips that you want to be on. But if Unfurl stays where he is and Big Duke shortens further from it's current price... I'm probably happy to be on Count Da Vinci and go wide of both Weir horses.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Re: the above post - Unfurl was a late scratching on vets advice, which must be heartbreaking when a Victorian horse goes down for one race.

Big Duke is still underpriced for me, so I've gone with Count Da Vinci - but also have a tri with BD,CDV/BD,CDV/most of the field.

 

[nobbyiscool]

The last of my back-to-back(-to-back) posts - Big Duke got up at around $2 (SP, NSW & STAB), giving Weir his first Launceston Cup win after 4 attempts.

Clearly the best horse in the race - apprentice jock Ben Allen didn't give him a particularly good ride, he was 3-4 wide most of the trip. He still overhauled 2nd fave Count Da Vinci relatively easily though.

In happy news for me, despite not picking Big Duke to win - the trifecta dividend still paid $107 despite the fave finishing 1st and the 2nd fave finishing 2nd.

 

[HeathySure]

Just got a text re: suggested stallion coverings shortlist for the comin' season for a mare.

Ranked as such




But of course the real question is what the punting board thinks. So many strong options.

we are going to have so many more cats than that are already running around in 3 to 4 years

 

[Duritz]

Tasmania have racing now?

 

[iluvparis]

Just got a text re: suggested stallion coverings shortlist for the comin' season for a mare.

Ranked as such




But of course the real question is what the punting board thinks. So many strong options.

But of course the real question is what the punting board thinks. So many strong options.

My thoughts are safeguard is about $8,999 too expensive

 

[HeathySure]

Just got a text re: suggested stallion coverings shortlist for the comin' season for a mare.

Ranked as such




But of course the real question is what the punting board thinks. So many strong options.

serious pick, take the risk and go xtravagant. might end up with a mental case, but 50 percent chance of getting a filly as well

 

[FallingLiefs]

serious pick, take the risk and go xtravagant. might end up with a mental case, but 50 percent chance of getting a filly as well

to be honest i pulled out 2 out of the text which were Dundeel and Real Impact for fishing purposes but at this point Xtravagant is my personal number 1 for another mare not the one the text is about

 

[iluvparis]

I agree - honestly have NFI about breeding but from a risk/reward perspective surely going to X gives you a chance of fluking something with freakish talent.

 

[Duritz]

Just did futurity and can't believe the value on palentino. $9? Won a G1 beating BHB when third up in the spring!! #moral

 

[iluvparis]

Just did futurity and can't believe the value on palentino. $9? Won a G1 beating BHB when third up in the spring!! #moral

You're not going to believe the value around next time First Seal meets Winx!!!!!

 

[iluvparis]

That's actually the only time Palentino has been first home against rivals he'll face in the Futurity.

BHB has beaten him thrice (twice in G1s over this exact distance), Rokki beat him home in the Cantala, and FnR beat him home first up last spring.

 

[iluvparis]

I see European also ran/Australian WFA star Beautiful Romance goes around in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy in Dubai tonight.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Who did it beat again? I know it was a bunch of sandown mugs that haven't won a good race in decades, but just need reminding.