Racing February Daily Punt - The Messiah Returns (Winx not Palcatino)

[The Dawes]

anyone keen on exospheric? probably the best horse in it, second prep in aus, his right distance range, especially first up. WFA is a bonus. double figures.

worth a bet as long as he's fit i would have thought.

Not sure he was the best in the race, but it was a very good run - really hit the line strongly.

The BMW over 2400m will be right up his alley.

 

[Gavin Excell]

different times different eras but her 3 cups she had 51, 55.5 and 58, as a comparison Think Big went 53 to 58.5 and didnt win a race in between, and Rain Lover went 51kgs to 60 kgs.. and the minimums were lower, you could argue that The Diva was 2kgs under weight for her 2nd melb cup and 3 to 4 kgs underweight for her last one given the races she won in between...

Possibly but isnt there a general compression now of weights melbourne cup which makes the era comparison tricky. Doubt we will ever see a horse weighted 60kgs in the Cup again. Also would there have been some sort of allowance/reduction in Divas weight given shes a mare?

 

[iluvparis]

Tosen Stardom going to be extremely hard to beat in the Australian Cup

Can roll my BHB winnings from Saturday onto him now that I know he has come back alright

 

[iluvparis]

All the more reason to run. Fitness plus if you lose who cares its not your main goal anyway. There is no reason not to run her other than the fact conditions aren't 100% perfect and there could be a SLIGHT chance Hartnell beats her and ruins "record"

Lol on what planet was Hartnell ever a chance of beating her despite the conditions - they have pretty much met on all possible distances and conditions and she has destroyed him every time.

What is it going to take for people to see the light that he has zero chance of ever beating her - at least Hay List got within 2.5L of Cav at times FFS

 

[iluvparis]

Does Gator still do best bet comments that pop up on racing.com? Apparently 1800 too short for the 10f horse exospheric.

Some random guy was doing the Caulfield tests in BB this week. Having said that Gator thought that Malaguera loved 1400m ahead of the Orr so might have drawn that from the same book.

 

[iluvparis]

I'm surprised that the NZ horse drifted so much, would have thought it would be used to the wet

Wut? Was something like $13 into $9.50 on track

 

[iluvparis]

Visually impressive but i doubt she had much left in the tank on the line. Tough tough run by the Oaks winner, she will be hard to beat when she gets over a trip

Even more garbage from you after Hartcat went looking for his heart at the 600m.

You won't see a more easier win than that in a Group 1 - never out of second gear

 

[iluvparis]

A firmer track

But he is a threat of beating winx in wet conditions second up over a mile!!!!!!!!

Needs to come south for Oz Cup

 

[iluvparis]

Too good Sheidel, deserved that big win. Magic Man on fire.

Extreme Choice pretty good but big ask to win from that position. Keep him away from the straight, should be fine.

And older horses

 

[iluvparis]

Extreme choice is the best horse in that by a long way. Very stiff.

lel #3yo hype

0-5 against the older horses this Autumn

You fappers must be gagging for Astern to get back

 

[iluvparis]

Does anyone else think they should forego the 3rd Cox Plate and go to Ascot this year?

They have tentative plans for a 2018 assault, but she'll be rising 7 by that time. Will she be still as good?

For me, taking her abroad to win a G1 would be the ultimate pinnacle. Will you remember her any more fondly if she beats Hartnell again at the Valley? Her CP wins are already historic.

She's in her prime now, give me a SYT or BC below their best vs a backyard champion anyday.

50/50 on this

After SYT didn't do it I'd love a horse to have a genuine crack at the 3 CPs. Against that, as you say, hard to see her still being at her top by June 2018. Also European 2000m division is pretty weak at the moment so you'd think she'd s**t in the Prince of Wales's.

I'm thinking of hitting the 2018 festival though so I hope they wait

 

[iluvparis]

Also had the track watered for her. Champions do get special treatment though. Black Cavier had an empty barrier next to her so she wasnt next some barrier headcase in a moonee valley race once

Watered so much it was immediately upgraded to Good following the Cup.

If it's so piss easy feel free to tag me in a post next time someone does the threepeat. Doubt BF will still be around when it happens.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Lol based on what? Geez you have some truly random horse rankings at times

According to the handicapper. Rated 112, awesome rock and jameka ahead at 113 but trending downward. i personally have jameka and SS and awesome rock and real love ahead. he's obviously got most upside.

 

[iluvparis]

According to the handicapper. Rated 112, awesome rock and jameka ahead at 113 but trending downward. i personally have jameka and SS and awesome rock and real love ahead. he's obviously got most upside.

So not according to the Handicapper - not sure how Jameka was trending downwards BEFORE the race on Saturday.

How you can have Real love anywhere near them is mind boggling given she repeatedly gets flogged by them.

 

[FallingLiefs]

So not according to the Handicapper - not sure how Jameka was trending downwards BEFORE the race on Saturday.

How you can have Real love anywhere near them is mind boggling given she repeatedly gets flogged by them.

well i'll help you out here, pre race she was 113, that's less than the 114 she was allotted for her CC win so again that is less than 114 and therefore trending downward. then i'll include the generalization that 90% of g1 handicap winners will record their peak rating at that start, because it's a g1 handicap. i think i included a probably in there because she could well be the 10% chance that doesn't and then can improve off it. exospheric only 12 or 13 starts from memory and plenty of room to improve off his rating in his second prep in aus so it seems the handicapper predicts Exospheric is a better horse however has yet to win the race to give him that peak rating. regardless the price was incorrect at $34 because it seems most people didn't do their homework on him after the MC run they assumed he was a 2 miler. was a terribly negative ride and finished off well in a on pace dominated race.

then the real love question is she is WFA competitive with BHB and has beaten jameka and awesome rock and anytime a horse starts $6 and best backed in a CC i think it has a reasonable talent.

 

[iluvparis]

well i'll help you out here, pre race she was 113, that's less than the 114 she was allotted for her CC win so again that is less than 114 and therefore trending downward. then i'll include the generalization that 90% of g1 handicap winners will record their peak rating at that start, because it's a g1 handicap. i think i included a probably in there because she could well be the 10% chance that doesn't and then can improve off it. exospheric only 12 or 13 starts from memory and plenty of room to improve off his rating in his second prep in aus so it seems the handicapper predicts Exospheric is a better horse however has yet to win the race to give him that peak rating. regardless the price was incorrect at $34 because it seems most people didn't do their homework on him after the MC run they assumed he was a 2 miler. was a terribly negative ride and finished off well in a on pace dominated race.

then the real love question is she is WFA competitive with BHB and has beaten jameka and awesome rock and anytime a horse starts $6 and best backed in a CC i think it has a reasonable talent.

If you think a 1 point move in the ratings is anything but noise you are kidding yourself - thats literally less than half a length.

And on what planet is Exospheric, a 5yo, more exposed than a 4yo mare just because its had less starts. That's because it started it's career in Europe! This is the same fallacy you used to back Secret Number in the Melbourne Cup - exposure is not a function of number of starts - especially when it comes to European horses. You make this mistake time and time again. Exoshperic is fully exposed by any sane metric.

So no - the handicapper doesn't think Exospheric is a better horse as the handicapper would understand its fully exposed and it is rated lower even before the mares allowance is taken into account.

$34 seems a fair price for a horse that didn't look like winning the race at any stage.

 

[FallingLiefs]

The logic behind secret number was it was a 6% chance to run to its peak or close to, 80% chance to bomb and whatever's left to run ok. Some horses running well like as you explained in exospheric never were really going to win but still run well. Sometimes performing on the day isn't relative to their chances of winning. SN bombed and I have no problem backing horses like SN, Tavago, any horse coming off a single bad prep. Secret number had good performances in Australia and had nothing to do with his supposed unexposed euro form, I was backing him on exposed Australian form. So no exospheric wasn't on that basis, Exospheric was on the basis I expect him to be one of our better WFA horses in the next year.

 

[iluvparis]

exospheric only 12 or 13 starts from memory and plenty of room to improve off his rating in his second prep

This sounds to me like someone backing a horse because they think it is unexposed.

And he has to improve to be anywhere near one of our top WFA horses on his EXPOSED form so far.

You also said it was the best horse in the race pre-race so excuse me for not picking up your mixed messages.

I'll concede he could win a Doomben Cup

 

[FallingLiefs]

This sounds to me like someone backing a horse because they think it is unexposed.

And he has to improve to be anywhere near one of our top WFA horses on his EXPOSED form so far.

You also said it was the best horse in the race pre-race so excuse me for not picking up your mixed messages.

I'll concede he could win a Doomben Cup

he is (probably) the best horse in the race. he's exposed. but not by the handicapper. if you think the likes of Jameka, Tosen Stardom and Awesome rock will stop him at WFA then be my guest and load up, while your at it why not have a few $'s each way on Jameka in a KG at royal ascot too could be every chance she strikes a field like the juddmonte then.

 

[iluvparis]

he is (probably) the best horse in the race. he's exposed. but not by the handicapper. if you think the likes of Jameka, Tosen Stardom and Awesome rock will stop him at WFA then be my guest and load up, while your at it why not have a few $'s each way on Jameka in a KG at royal ascot too could be every chance she strikes a field like the juddmonte then.

Lol wut? Seriously mate you have NFI what you are taking about!! No way would Exospheric get near them in a KG. He was beaten over 4 lengths in one of the weakest Juddmontes in years and still started 30/1. He'd be even longer odds in a King George.

You are kidding yourself if he was the best horse in the race on Saturday. As usual your relative rankings of top horses is completely non-nonsensical and has no basis in fact.

 

[FallingLiefs]

enough of exospheric anyway.

just saw on twitter that Jukebox burst a hoof abcess on saturday morning. did LOL. Gelagotis looks like a ******* moron once again (i've lost count what number that is). Syndicators make themselves look terrible after their big chest beating exercise and Ciaron Maher can't see a lame horse in front of him.

 

[iluvparis]

Seriously, I've never had a city winner in my life but if any of mine looks any good and there is even a sniff of an offer from HK/breeding syidicators I wouldn't be able to sell it quick enough

 

[Jugada]

Lol on what planet was Hartnell ever a chance of beating her despite the conditions - they have pretty much met on all possible distances and conditions and she has destroyed him every time.

What is it going to take for people to see the light that he has zero chance of ever beating her - at least Hay List got within 2.5L of Cav at times FFS

Lol classic after the fact. Keep dealing in absolutes on the punt though, sure fire way to success

Anyway i wasn't even saying that Hartnell could beat her, i was saying that was the reason they were on the edge of bitching out and scratching

 

[Jugada]

Even more garbage from you after Hartcat went looking for his heart at the 600m.

You won't see a more easier win than that in a Group 1 - never out of second gear

and my point is if they tried to go to 3rd or 4th gear i dont think she would have won by that much more

 

[iluvparis]

Lol classic after the fact. Keep dealing in absolutes on the punt though, sure fire way to success

Anyway i wasn't even saying that Hartnell could beat her, i was saying that was the reason they were on the edge of bitching out and scratching

Lol what are you talking about after the fact!?! That's as bad a call as Liefzy's Exo rubbish.

Liefzy had this hypothesis straight after the Apollo and I called it our for the garbage call it was then - TWO WEEKS before that hypothesis was tested on the track. And this wasn't by dealing in absolutes it was by looking at the fact that even prior to Saturday Hartnell had been absolutely raped by her every time they'd met under all conditions and distances.

You're also taking the piss if you think the reason they were considering scratching was because of Hartnell. I'd wager it was because they were worried the track might not be safe or the run could bottom her ala the Doncaster. But that's just guessing which you guys just love to specialise in.