Racing February Daily Punt- The Winx Farewell Tour

[AvantGardener]

Happy Clapper $1.45 place looks a moral surely?

 

[bigpapagman]

Happy Clapper $1.45 place looks a moral surely?

Well there's only 7 in the field so NTD. You'd be better off taking the Exacta, it was $2.10 last time. Winx/HC/Field tri will cost you $5 for 100%, and the dividend will be more than $7.28. There's 2 better ways of backing Happy Clapper to come second. You could also take a F4 for Winx/HC/Field/Field ($20 for 100%) and bank on the dividend being more than $29, but that's maybe a bit dicier, You'd need Egg Tart or Unforgetten to s**t the bed.

 

[bigpapagman]

Dude, i am so passionate about Horse Racing its not funny. Didn't come from a racing family. I started reading the paper when i was 5 and went straight to the horses names. I was hooked then. Pretty much devoured anything on horse racing from then . I still look forward to Saturday racing no matter how crap it is these days and its not about the punt, its about discovering a great horse and watching them develop even though i like to have an interest,
I rarely bet on the big races. Melbourne cup has too many unknown factors but i still love the day and the big carnivals.

I was spoilt growing up. Horses raced way more than they do now and they had to race against each other because the race program was set up so that there was no group 1s clashing so we got champs racing champs
That changed when the breeders took over administration to serve their own purposes but thats another story.

I know i have different views to most, always have, I dont particularly care if you take notice or not. But one thing i do know and and absolutely love is my horse racing

At no point was I attacking your love for horse racing, and the problem is you probably care about the spectacle too much. Just be analytical for a second and think about what you would do.

 

[iluvparis]

Also what is glaringly missing from the racing calendar is a 2000m HCP Gp 1.

Lol what - we are a laughing stock globally already for having G1 handicaps - why do we need one over a distance where there are a billion at WFA - that is one of the worst suggestions I've heard on here and that is saying something.

 

[AvantGardener]

Well there's only 7 in the field so NTD. You'd be better off taking the Exacta, it was $2.10 last time. Winx/HC/Field tri will cost you $5 for 100%, and the dividend will be more than $7.28. There's 2 better ways of backing Happy Clapper to come second. You could also take a F4 for Winx/HC/Field/Field ($20 for 100%) and bank on the dividend being more than $29, but that's maybe a bit dicier, You'd need Egg Tart or Unforgetten to s**t the bed.

For the risk of those other dividends potentially being smaller and the risk HC wins I am content with the $1.45.

 

[iluvparis]

Well there's only 7 in the field so NTD. You'd be better off taking the Exacta, it was $2.10 last time. Winx/HC/Field tri will cost you $5 for 100%, and the dividend will be more than $7.28. There's 2 better ways of backing Happy Clapper to come second. You could also take a F4 for Winx/HC/Field/Field ($20 for 100%) and bank on the dividend being more than $29, but that's maybe a bit dicier, You'd need Egg Tart or Unforgetten to s**t the bed.

HC was $11 last time out though whereas he has opened $6 here (solid poison for the win just quietly). I think you will be pushing s**t up hill to get $2.10 the exacta this time around.

 

[bigpapagman]

For the risk of those other dividends potentially being smaller and the risk HC wins I am content with the $1.45.

There's more risk of Egg Tart running past Happy Clapper than there is Happy Clapper winning.

 

[bigpapagman]

HC was $11 last time out though whereas he has opened $6 here (solid poison for the win just quietly). I think you will be pushing s**t up hill to get $2.10 the exacta this time around.

Less than $1.45 though?

 

[AvantGardener]

Lol what - we are a laughing stock globally already for having G1 handicaps - why do we need one over a distance where there are a billion at WFA - that is one of the worst suggestions I've heard on here and that is saying something.

Handicaps over 1200, 1400, 1600, 2400m and 3200m. I would suggest changing possibly the Turnbull or Caulfield Stakes

 

[AvantGardener]

There's more risk of Egg Tart running past Happy Clapper than there is Happy Clapper winning.

Yes but irrelevant.

 

[iluvparis]

Handicaps over 1200, 1400, 1600, 2400m and 3200m. I would suggest changing possibly the Turnbull or Caulfield Stakes

Legitimately the worst idea I've heard since George Pell was appointed to the Vatican.

 

[iluvparis]

Less than $1.45 though?

Probably not - feels like around a $1.50 result

 

[bigpapagman]

Yes but irrelevant.

Oh god, how?

 

[bigpapagman]

Probably not - feels like around a $1.50 result

* yeah, that's an extra $500.

 

[iluvparis]

**** yeah, that's an extra $500.

Well if you are betting those volumes its now $1.30 given the size of Exacta pools these days

 

[bigpapagman]

Well if you are betting those volumes its now $1.30 given the size of Exacta pools these days

 

[AvantGardener]

Oh god, how?

Egg Tart beating home HC would make the place bet HC, and Exacta Winx/HC & tri W/HC/F & F4 W/HC/F/F lose. All four of those bets carry the same risk of losing if Egg Tart beats HC home.
If HC beats Winx then Winx-HC Exacta, W/HC/F tri and W/HC/F/F F4 all lose but the HC place bet still wins.

 

[iluvparis]

For the risk of those other dividends potentially being smaller and the risk HC wins I am content with the $1.45.

Explains your illogical desire for a G1 2000m handicap

 

[TBellicious]

Bowman taken off DREAMFORCE... #justice #moral

 

[iluvparis]

Bowman taken off DREAMFORCE... #justice #moral

Watch him roll it on the import now

 

[AvantGardener]

Explains your illogical desire for a G1 2000m handicap

There is a risk factor HC wins. Whether that is 1% or 99% risk there is risk involved in taking an exacta that isn't involved in taking him place only. $7 odds suggest risk factor is about 14%. Personally I think its much less than 14% but evidently there is a risk factor.

 

[AvantGardener]

If there are Gp1s at 1200m, 1400m 1600m, 2400m, 3200 it would be logical to have one at 2000m.

Perhaps there is an argument for no Gp1 HCPs and I don't have a strong opinion either way on that, but given there are Gp1 HCPs at every other common distance it is logical to have a 2000m Gp1 HCP as well.

 

[juice t]

That last race at Doomben is the epitome of how crooked Queensland racing is

 

[come on oliver]

.

That last race at Doomben is the epitome of how crooked Queensland racing is

Not sure how that got beat. Feels like déjà vu tho.
That was Betjams best for the day

 

[king rising]

Clarice Cliffs in the last at HQ on Sat a good bet. Deserved favourite. Been smashing the clock in first two prep runs, maps to box seat, is rock hard fit racing against horses who are beginning their campaigns and looking for further. Like it