Federal Budget 2021

[Not Important]

howard was the master of the small target politics going into an election, take your LNP blinkers off

if you walked down the street today, how many people out of 1000 do you think watched the opposition reply?

think that applies to the budget too,ned. most wait until the next day and sift through the info then is my take.

 

[Rotayjay]

People don't need to *actually* benefit in order to vote for a political party - they just need to be duped into thinking they benefit. At the last election, poorer areas swung towards the Coalition and richer areas swung towards Labor. Look at America. Despite Biden's victory, that country is completely mired in policies and systems that work against the interests of most Americans. And they keep voting for them.

How? One word: spin. Politicians have been doing it since ancient Greece. It is a fine art that the Coalition and Murdoch have mastered.

 

[tandino]

People don't need to *actually* benefit in order to vote for a political party - they just need to be duped into thinking they benefit. At the last election, poorer areas swung towards the Coalition and richer areas swung towards Labor. Look at America. Despite Biden's victory, that country is completely mired in policies and systems that work against the interests of most Americans. And they keep voting for them.

How? One word: spin. Politicians have been doing it since ancient Greece. It is a fine art that the Coalition and Murdoch have mastered.

Why did society ever give poor people the vote if they were just going to vote the wrong way?

 

[Vindicater]

the election is in 2022, no idea why your getting so excited about something a year away. its way - WAAAAAY - too early to start campaigning.

I cant see where the alp gets any wins. qld and nsw will go further to the libs (i genuinely cant see them losing anything there), and in vic i only see one, maybe two seats being picked up

people dont like voting a govt out in a crisis

The libs will lose seats in QLD and WA for sure but may gain some in NSW.

ALP should gain in WA and QLD but might also lose a seat or two to the greens in VIC and Queensland.

Will be interesting.

 

[random260]

Have you gamed this out or is it just a vibe?

Cause I can't come up with any realistic set of numbers that gets the Coalition to 76

They have so little room to move with the 23 seats they hold in Queensland


yes yes, everything is different so nothing can be compared

The point is that every successful opposition leader in the last 40 years has used their final budget reply to mark some palpable policy differences between them and their opponent

Not saying it's a prescriptive rule, just pointing out that Albanese is taking a novel approach

LNP stand to gain 4 seats in NSW. NSW has the most marginal seats. People can stick their heads in the sand and point to other states for labor but at end of day NSW is the battleground

The libs will lose seats in QLD and WA for sure but may gain some in NSW.

ALP should gain in WA and QLD but might also lose a seat or two to the greens in VIC and Queensland.

Will be interesting.

*WA has the most rock solid seats.

To put it in perspective the seat ALP tried to target in 2019 was Swan. They ran Hannah Beazley against steve irons. The result barely moved. Hannah Beazley was actually a star candidate


Look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2019_Australian_federal_election_in_Western_Australia

Which electorate do you see? All of them have huge margins and are rock solid. If you say Swan again I'll literally roll over and laugh

Winning the next election is not an issue, the Coalition are cooked. They are dead in the water in Victoria, which means they desperately need to sweep Queensland to get to 76. There is just no realistic way for them to do that without the confluence of one-off factors that killed Labor in that state last time.

The only question is whether Labor gives them a kicking a la Keating '96 or Howard '07, or whether they fall across the line with a weak majority

If Labor goes in timid to the election, they will come out as a weak government with no mandate

BAHAHAH so out of touch. God damm. It's not that you are a lab supporter its because you make stupid ass statements with so much certainty without any touch of reality.

howard was the master of the small target politics going into an election, take your LNP blinkers off

if you walked down the street today, how many people out of 1000 do you think watched the opposition reply?

Exactly. Surprised at a good point no wonder AndrewsM mentioned you as having "good takes"

The only people watching it were political hack jobs + hardcore labour voters

the one lesson from last election is small target

if they offer policies the election becomes a referendum on them (as happened last time)

Funnily enough that would be the case.

However, the irony and something I'm grinning about is that this period is the top 5 worst times to run a small target campaign.

This period

small target > medium target
small target >> big target

Normal periods (eg: 2019)

small target >> medium target
small target >>>>>>> big target



In saying that it's still their best option.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

View attachment 1124875
No need to even try in Vic when Labor get voted to most seats, and Murdoch and Co do enough to coax the rest into thinking they are getting a good deal.
We are getting RORTED down here.

Victoria is a lost cause. It should be cut adrift from the rest of Aus. It's an absolute toilet.

The fact anyone could support Dan Andrews after the events of the last year speaks volumes about the intelligence (or lack thereof) of the average Victorian. A bunch of soy boys who just want big daddy government to solve all their problems.

 

[Doss]

Soy boys!

It’s hard to make ‘woke’, ‘PC’ and ‘latte sipper’ seem intellectual, but you just managed it Baz.

 

[Rob R]

Victoria is a lost cause. It should be cut adrift from the rest of Aus. It's an absolute toilet.

The fact anyone could support Dan Andrews after the events of the last year speaks volumes about the intelligence (or lack thereof) of the average Victorian. A bunch of soy boys who just want big daddy government to solve all their problems.

It talks more to the stupidity of the LNP, a disciplined well thought out campaign would have seen the ALP remove Andrews long before now but instead of saying " things like we will follow medical advice and support the lockdowns but condemn the Andrews govt whose faiures made them a requirement and killed so many", they attacked the lockdown creating the impression they would have been worse.

On SM-G570F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[sherb]

Victoria is a lost cause. It should be cut adrift from the rest of Aus. It's an absolute toilet.

The fact anyone could support Dan Andrews after the events of the last year speaks volumes about the intelligence (or lack thereof) of the average Victorian. A bunch of soy boys who just want big daddy government to solve all their problems.

Where would Richmond's new home ground be based?

 

[Christopher Buttersnip]

Bingo! A leader in waiting is Jim.

 

[Billy ray]

Super Nintendo Chalmers!

 

[andrewmillman]

Bingo! A leader in waiting is Jim.

Leader of Logan City Council maybe.

 

[Number37]

Great budget bounce for Frydenderrr and #Scottyfromcarpeting. NOT.

 

[Rotayjay]

Great budget bounce for Frydenderrr and #Scottyfromcarpeting. NOT.







View attachment 1129794

Labor's primary vote is still pretty bad however.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Never, ever trust Newspoll

 

[Caesar]

Never, ever trust Newspoll

If you're going to trust any polling, Newspoll is pretty much the best available

Generally leans a little to Labor but overall a lot more robust and accurate than the competitors

 

[Gough]

Archive passes the hat in desperate bid to save Australia’s history

The National Archives has resorted to taking public donations to help digitise disintegrating records after the federal budget didn’t give it any extra money.

www.smh.com.au

A statutory body tasked with collecting and preserving our country's history is putting out the begging bowl because of lack of funding. Just staggering in a budget like the one that's been passed down.

 

[Caesar]

Pretty terrible. I understand that these days there's so much information that it's not financially viable to preserve everything, but potentially losing stuff like John Curtin's speeches because of budget constraints is inexcusable. If things are really that dire, they need emergency funding.

On a separate note:

However, it only received a minuscule boost to its operating budget of $700,000 and no funding for extra staff last Tuesday.

Whoever subbed that sentence should be sacked

 

[Pessimistic]

Archive passes the hat in desperate bid to save Australia’s history

The National Archives has resorted to taking public donations to help digitise disintegrating records after the federal budget didn’t give it any extra money.

www.smh.com.au

A statutory body tasked with collecting and preserving our country's history is putting out the begging bowl because of lack of funding. Just staggering in a budget like the one that's been passed down.

and yet they legislated to make communications companies save x days of people’s ‘lol’s and dick picks. Priorities?

 

[random260]

This is the budget LNP had to have. That's why most Australians don't know whether its good for them . Because in reality it to shore up the ship with women + elderly only. Doesn't really mean it helps majority of Australians but it's popular since its the budget LNP needed to have. This budget will not be handed down each time since it's doesn't really shore up LNP seat.

Next budget will be flat out appealing to quiet Australians. So expect infrastructure spending + some left over women funding.

But good on Josh Frydenberg his popularity is sky high along with Hunt!!! He has shown he isn't tone deaf with fiscal s**t. So he has my support and confidence if he wants to lead LNP!

 

[Fire]

What a weird little troll. 'This is a brilliant budget and everything's going well with the LNP, they will win sgsin easily because everyone's popular and also I support another leadership spill.'

I understand that letting obvious trolls post ups engagement here, but the quality of them is important. Low quality trolling just makes interacting eith this place an unpleasant experience.

 

[cartwright]

Meanwhile the national archives have cap in hand

 

[Kwality]

We've seen the budget, now for the reality !! Here are the economists:
'Australia’s economy will limp along after recovering from the pandemic, failing to regain the growth it had either in the years leading up to the crisis or the much higher growth in the decades before.

That’s the consensus of the 23 leading Australian economists assembled to take part in The Conversation’s July 1 forecasting survey — a panel that includes former Treasury, Reserve Bank and International Monetary Fund officials and modellers and policy specialists from 13 Australian universities.

On balance, the panel expects year-average economic growth (the measure reported in the budget) to slide from 4% this financial year to just 2.2% by 2024-25, well below the average of 2.6% assumed in this week’s intergenerational report.

The panel forecasts much weaker business investment than does the budget and lower household spending, but higher wage growth and lower unemployment. It expects a flat share market, and slower growth in house prices.'

Economy will be weak and in need of support after pandemic, say top economists in 2021-22 survey

The Conversation’s panel expects weak economic growth, weak investment, even lower unemployment and two more years of ultra-low interest rates.

theconversation.com

Anyone prepared to tackle the issues? I thought the end of Jobkeeper would bring doom & gloom so wont even try my hand.

 

[Gough]

We've seen the budget, now for the reality !! Here are the economists:
'Australia’s economy will limp along after recovering from the pandemic, failing to regain the growth it had either in the years leading up to the crisis or the much higher growth in the decades before.

That’s the consensus of the 23 leading Australian economists assembled to take part in The Conversation’s July 1 forecasting survey — a panel that includes former Treasury, Reserve Bank and International Monetary Fund officials and modellers and policy specialists from 13 Australian universities.

On balance, the panel expects year-average economic growth (the measure reported in the budget) to slide from 4% this financial year to just 2.2% by 2024-25, well below the average of 2.6% assumed in this week’s intergenerational report.

The panel forecasts much weaker business investment than does the budget and lower household spending, but higher wage growth and lower unemployment. It expects a flat share market, and slower growth in house prices.'

Economy will be weak and in need of support after pandemic, say top economists in 2021-22 survey

The Conversation’s panel expects weak economic growth, weak investment, even lower unemployment and two more years of ultra-low interest rates.

theconversation.com

Anyone prepared to tackle the issues? I thought the end of Jobkeeper would bring doom & gloom so wont even try my hand.

Keeping wages low has literally been the only successful policy that this government has achieved.