Federer - a return to #1?

Pedantic

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What say you, tennis board, do you think he can make it all the way back to the top this year?

He's had his best start to a season in a decade and is currently on 3045 points for the year. Meanwhile, the two best players of the last few years, Djokovic and Murray, have started the year relatively poorly and are currently on 475 and 840 points, respectively. They will both also miss the Masters in Miami next week.

And if you don't think Federer will get the #1, do you think we might see a non-big 4 world #1 for the first time since Roddick in 2004?
 

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BobbyMorri

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#3
No.

Fed wont play enough to reach number 1. his goal or aim are the grand slams and especially Wimbledon.

Murray still has won a tournament this year and his 2nd half of the year was unbelievable. i reckon he will regain form again around Wimbledon and finish year end number one. so he wont lose his number 1 ranking for the year.
 

ozgamer

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#4
Only if the rest of the season was on grass.
 

pepsi

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#5
Only if the rest of the season was on grass.
Seeing as he has won the AO and IW on hard I dont think this is an accurate statement. There are hardcourt masters tournaments in miami, cincinatti, montreal, shanghai and year end tournament in London where he can gain big points, along with wimbledon and the US open.

Too early to judge but there is a chance.
 

gaelictiogar

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#6
Seeing as he has won the AO and IW on hard I dont think this is an accurate statement. There are hardcourt masters tournaments in miami, cincinatti, montreal, shanghai and year end tournament in London where he can gain big points, along with wimbledon and the US open.

Too early to judge but there is a chance.

There is a chance but surely it has to be a slim chance. After Miami I suspect Roger will use the clays to stay fit for the July/September assault on Wimbledon and New York. I can't second guess a genius but surely he won't run himself into the ground on an unforgiving surface which negates talent and favours grinders. This will make top position depend of absolutely everything going right on the hards and in London and surely not everything will go right for a man who will be 36 come NY.
 

Broar

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#7
He's what 7000+ ranking points behind Murray? No chance.
 

Demosthenes

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#10
The fact it is even in the conversation is simply remarkable, there is no one on the planet that has been consistently this good for so long. A truly incredible freakish athlete.
It is not in the conversation for anybody who knows anything about how the points system works.

Federer has zero chance of regaining number one. Zero.
 

HODGEYROAD

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#11
It is not in the conversation for anybody who knows anything about how the points system works.

Federer has zero chance of regaining number one. Zero.
If he plays enough tournaments this year he has a chance, its a 12 month system and he cleaning up everyone so far this year.
 

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Demosthenes

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#12
He won't play enough tournaments and if he plays enough tournaments he won't win enough anyway.
 

HODGEYROAD

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#13
He won't play enough tournaments and if he plays enough tournaments he won't win enough anyway.
Well if he wins Miami this week he's already 3/3 in the major tournaments so far this year. Its more open if Djokovic & Murray don't have the standout years they have been having in recent times. I do think however Federer will conserve lots of energy over the European Clay court season for Wimbledon.
 

pepsi

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#15
It is not in the conversation for anybody who knows anything about how the points system works.

Federer has zero chance of regaining number one. Zero.
Coming in to the tennis forum acting as if you are the only one aware of the ranking system is a bit much. Most of us are well aware of how it works.

Let's see, you need somewhere between 10000-12000 points to get to number 1. With Murray having a tonne to defend in the 2nd half of the year and djokovic defending a high number in the clay season, the #1 spot is up for grabs without a doubt. Nasal is every chance if he has a quality clay season, which I think he will.

But federer could be at 4000 points before April even starts. To say he has no chance is incredibly nieve.
 

Demosthenes

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#16
Fed won't go close to number one, the trajectory is utterly unsustainable for him at this stage of his career.

Incredible how he wins a couple of titles and people get on the hype train. I understand the nostalgia, but the drooling is a bit embarrassing.
 

pepsi

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#17
Fed won't go close to number one, the trajectory is utterly unsustainable for him at this stage of his career.

Incredible how he wins a couple of titles and people get on the hype train. I understand the nostalgia, but the drooling is a bit embarrassing.
I would have said winning a slam at 35 is impossible, but he's done that. Would have said winning a masters at 35 is nearly impossible, but he's done that. He's had a phenomenal start to the year for his age and you are right, he could get an injury that stops his run. But that's not a certainty.

I'm not sure why you are so certain about his ranking peak this year. Not even close to #1 you think? He's already almost at 4000 points with 7500 points available solely from the remaining slams and yec. He's every chance to get there the way this year is tracking. But I do think nadal could do it with a great clay season.
 

Demosthenes

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#18
You're not really looking at the situation objectively. What is the reality of the situation? Federer has won two tournaments in the last 12 month period. This is not unusual- throw a dart in a calendar for the last five years and you'd struggle to find a date where Federer didn't hold at least 1 or 2 titles.

What is unusual is that (1) they're both high level titles, and (2) they've occurred close together. But then, if we go back and look at recent history again, even when Federer wasn't winning he was often in the latter rounds of most high profile tournaments. e.g. in his last injury free season (2015) he made top-level finals at IW, Rome, Wimbledon, the USO and the Tour Finals (in addition to winning Cincy). If a couple of results had fallen the right way, it's quite possible he could have won a similar cluster. So whilst this season's run is impressive it's not exactly out of pattern in a broader sense.

What IS out of pattern in recent history is Federer stringing together the sheer, constant winning consistency at top level tournaments over an entire year to threaten for #1. It is just not something there is any evidence for whatsoever and you'd have to be incredibly naive to think this season will be any different.
 
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pepsi

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#19
You're not really looking at the situation objectively. What is the reality of the situation? Federer has won two tournaments in the last 12 month period.
You cannot use the last 12 months as evidence as Federer was injured or not playing for a significant part of that. The reality of the situation is that Federer has won 2 tournaments in the last 2 months and is in the semi of a 3rd. He has almost accumulated 4000 points this year. If you look at past history, it is usually Federer's 2nd half of the season where he has done well (Wimbledon, US open, yec) and if follows in the same vein he could get the #1 spot.

I think you are ignoring the elephant in the room and that is the significant drop of form of Djokovic. The one player over the past few years who has really stopped Federer. I have doubts as to whether Murray will replicate the 2nd half of 2016 this year either.

I see it as being entirely possible that at some stage this year the player ranked #1 will only have about 10000 points. If that occurs Federer has the possibility of getting to that level. I also think Nadal could get to that figure if his clay season goes well.

I look forward to having this discussion in late September this year to see how things are tracking. I don't really care whether Federer gets back to #1, I'm just stating that it is a possibility.
 

Demosthenes

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#20
I am not using the last 12 months as evidence for anything. I am just saying, it is an objective fact that Federer has won 2 titles in the last 12 months. Speculation on what he would have done had he not been injured is irrelevant.

Federer does have a record of clustered good results at major tournaments in recent years. He does not have a record of sustained points accumulation that puts him in contention for #1. You and others are confusing the former for the latter.
 

pepsi

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#21
it is an objective fact that Federer has won 2 titles in the last 12 months.

Federer does have a record of clustered good results at major tournaments in recent years.

You and others are confusing the former for the latter.
It is also an objective fact he has won a slam and masters series in the last 2 months, with his biggest competition for the #1 spot earning very few points over the same period.

He does have a good record of clustered results. Let's say he does nothing for the next 3 months then comes out and does extremely well with the Wimbledon/US open swing. Do you think that's possible?

I'm not confused at all.
 

Demosthenes

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#22
I'm not going to speculate on what he will do in the future. I'm just saying there's zero evidence to suggest he can put together sustained results over a 12 month period to challenge for number one.

People are getting way too excited about a very small sample of tournaments. e.g. this period he has just gone through is not too dissimilar to the his last US hardcourt season in 2015, and he finished that year many thousands of points behind #1. Never in contention.

In reality these sorts of results are nothing new from Old Federer and there is no substantive reason to think the ranking results this time will be any different from previous.
 

pepsi

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#23
nothing new from Olderer
As soon as you use a word like that I'm not going to bother with further debate. I'm not even a Federer fan, but his age isn't holding him back this year.

Speak to you in September.
 

Demosthenes

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#24
I was merely using it as shorthand for Federer in his later years, but you're clearly looking for an excuse to bail out of a sinking ship so I'll give you a pass.
 

pepsi

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#25
I was merely using it as shorthand for Federer in his later years, but you're clearly looking for an excuse to bail out of a sinking ship so I'll give you a pass.
You won't change your mind and I've given fair points to his return to #1. You won't change your mind and we can't predict the future. Let's see what happens over the next few months and you can brag about being right, if it happens, later in the year.
 
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