Federer - a return to #1?

[Demosthenes]

I'm not trying to predict the future, just illustrating that your points are neither rational nor evidence based. Nostalgia is clouding your judgement.

I quite like Federer and would love for him to get back to number one. If he did it would be a freakishly unpredictable confluence of events, quite unlike his wins to date.

 

[gaelictiogar]

The Miami win gives him another 1,000 points but does it matter? I suspect number 1 is hardly in his mind. The rest of his year will be devoted to trying to peak for Wimbledon and NYC. Literally nothing else matters.

Masters wins, whilst hugely gratifying I'm sure and doubly so if they can be achieved against Nadal, are not going to seriously impact on how his legacy is seen and make no mistake he is deeply competitive and playing to secure his legacy as GOAT from any late career surge in slam winning from either Nadal or Djokovic.

When thinking of the Big 3 ( Fed, Rafa, Djoker )the broader sporting public think of the numbers 18, 14 and 12. Only core fans care or know how many weeks a player spent at Number 1 or indeed how many non slam titles he won. I suspect Fed has the magic rounded number of 20 in his mind.

 

[pepsi]

He won't play any clay court tournaments apart from Roland Garros. Says his body needs to heal. Thought he might have played somewhere like Monte Carlo which has a small draw. It will come down to whether he can replicate this form post Paris.

He's certainly playing like the #1 player in the world. In saying that, Rafa is in with a big chance as he's had a fantastic start to the year and has only been stopped by fed.

 

[pepsi]

it is an objective fact that Federer has won 2 titles in the last 12 months.

Make that 3 titles in 2 months. He's skipping the clay session though which hampers his ascension to #1. Rafa is in with a big chance though. Should be pretty exciting to follow the ranking battle as the year progresses.

 

[Demosthenes]

By the time the FO rolls around it will be 3 titles in 18 months.

He's had a nice injection of form recently but unless something special happens during his time off then it's not going to be sustained.

At a minimum he needs to double his current performance to be in contention - i.e. another GS and 2x MS. If he can't do that he'll need a bunch of finals appearances.

 

[pepsi]

By the time the FO rolls around it will be 3 titles in 18 months.

At a minimum he needs to double his current performance to be in contention - i.e. another GS and 2x MS. If he can't do that he'll need a bunch of finals appearances.

I'm unsure why you continue to use stats, first over the past 12 months and now 18 months?

In his last full season, 2015, Federer gained 5500 points from the grass court season til the end of the year. In 2014 he achieved 6400 points over the same period.

He achieves a similar result in 2017 and he is every chance at the #1 ranking.

 

[Demosthenes]

Just pointing out the dangers of taking a small sample of results and extrapolating wildly, something you seem quite prone to.

Federer's 2014 and 2015 second halves were great, but those results exist in the context of patchy seasons, which is the norm for older Federer.

He achieves a similar result in 2017 and he is every chance at the #1 ranking.

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

 

[pepsi]

Just pointing out the dangers of taking a small sample of results and extrapolating wildly, something you seem quite prone to.

Federer's 2015 second half was great, but those results exist in the context of a patchy season

He gained more points in that period in 2014 compared to 2015.

Look for yourself Federers ranking points gain from the start of the grass court season to the world tour finals. I'm not making things up, he averages 5000 to 6000 points over that period over the last 10 years.

 

[Brad Goodman]

Nobody's performance 18 months ago has any relevance to their performance currently.

 

[Maester]

The Miami win gives him another 1,000 points but does it matter? I suspect number 1 is hardly in his mind. The rest of his year will be devoted to trying to peak for Wimbledon and NYC. Literally nothing else matters.

Masters wins, whilst hugely gratifying I'm sure and doubly so if they can be achieved against Nadal, are not going to seriously impact on how his legacy is seen and make no mistake he is deeply competitive and playing to secure his legacy as GOAT from any late career surge in slam winning from either Nadal or Djokovic.

When thinking of the Big 3 ( Fed, Rafa, Djoker )the broader sporting public think of the numbers 18, 14 and 12. Only core fans care or know how many weeks a player spent at Number 1 or indeed how many non slam titles he won. I suspect Fed has the magic rounded number of 20 in his mind.

I largely agree, though I think getting to number 1 again, especially year end number 1 would be a pretty big deal in the legacy stakes. He'd tie Sampras for most years as the year-end number 1, and he'd put more of a gap between him and Djokovic for most weeks at number 1. Djokovic is 79 weeks behind so is within sight if he can reproduce somewhere near his best form in the next 2-3 years.

But Federer shouldn't think about the ranking unless it gets super close near the end of the year. He just has to prioritise the big tournaments he has a decent chance of winning. If he wins enough the ranking will take care of itself. Playing too many tournaments would decrease his chances.

 

[pepsi]

Just back on this topic, it's looking more and more likely that it will be Nadal that finishes as the #1 in 2017. The points race as it stands today (Nadal or Wawrinka will add 800 points today) has Rafa 2100 points clear of Fed and 4000 ahead of Murray and Djokovic:

1 - Rafael Nadal 31 ESP1 6115
2 - Roger Federer 35.8 SUI2 4045
3 - Dominic Thiem 23.7 AUT1 3165
4 - Stan Wawrinka 32.2 SUI1 3140
5 - Alexander Zverev 20.1 GER1 2140
6 - Novak Djokovic 30 SRB1 1975
7 - Andy Murray 30 GBR1 1930
8 - David Goffin 26.5 BEL1 1820
9 - Pablo Carreño Busta 25.9 ESP2 1740
10 - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 32.1 FRA1 1570

 

[Pedantic]

Just back on this topic, it's looking more and more likely that it will be Nadal that finishes as the #1 in 2017. The points race as it stands today (Nadal or Wawrinka will add 800 points today) has Rafa 2100 points clear of Fed and 4000 ahead of Murray and Djokovic:

1 - Rafael Nadal 31 ESP1 6115
2 - Roger Federer 35.8 SUI2 4045
3 - Dominic Thiem 23.7 AUT1 3165
4 - Stan Wawrinka 32.2 SUI1 3140
5 - Alexander Zverev 20.1 GER1 2140
6 - Novak Djokovic 30 SRB1 1975
7 - Andy Murray 30 GBR1 1930
8 - David Goffin 26.5 BEL1 1820
9 - Pablo Carreño Busta 25.9 ESP2 1740
10 - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 32.1 FRA1 1570

Yeah I agree, Nadal's clay season has been phenomenal. I think Federer would need to win both Wimbledon and the US Open to get to #1.

 

[BobbyMorri]

Yeah I agree, Nadal's clay season has been phenomenal. I think Federer would need to win both Wimbledon and the US Open to get to #1.

If Fed cared for the #1 ranking, he would have played the FO. I wouldn't be surprised if he missed more masters trophies before the US Open.

Fed won't finish in the top 3. He is defending Wimbledon Semi Final points dont forget. he has a clean slate after that

I think people are writing off Murray a bit early. He is no Novak. He has had injuries and was short of confidence. I think that FO performance has him set for a good Wimbledon. He would need to do what he did last year to keep number 1 at the end of the year though. (as long as Nadal doesn't get injured)

 

[Pedantic]

If Fed cared for the #1 ranking, he would have played the FO. I wouldn't be surprised if he missed more masters trophies before the US Open.

Fed won't finish in the top 3. He is defending Wimbledon Semi Final points dont forget. he has a clean slate after that

I think people are writing off Murray a bit early. He is no Novak. He has had injuries and was short of confidence. I think that FO performance has him set for a good Wimbledon. He would need to do what he did last year to keep number 1 at the end of the year though. (as long as Nadal doesn't get injured)

Yep, clearly Federer is more focused on maximising his chances at winning slams than getting back to #1.

I struggle to see him not being top 3 at year end though. He will most likely defend his Wimbledon points and he has been the best hard court player this year so you'd think he will pick up plenty of points at eg Cincinnati and the US Open. Who do you think will be in the top 3 ahead of him (apart from Rafa obviously)?

 

[BobbyMorri]

Yep, clearly Federer is more focused on maximising his chances at winning slams than getting back to #1.

I struggle to see him not being top 3 at year end though. He will most likely defend his Wimbledon points and he has been the best hard court player this year so you'd think he will pick up plenty of points at eg Cincinnati and the US Open. Who do you think will be in the top 3 ahead of him (apart from Rafa obviously)?

Murray, Rafa and maybe Stan. but i reckon someone will surprise at the US Open(it normally happens) and Fed will miss more tournaments.

 

[pepsi]

Murray, Rafa and maybe Stan. but i reckon someone will surprise at the US Open(it normally happens) and Fed will miss more tournaments.

I think Murray turned a corner in Paris this fortnight, he played the best he has all season and would not be surprised if he has a really good grass court season. Federer is once again a bit of an unknown because he's had 10 weeks off. Stan doesn't do that well on the grass. It's going to be an interesting 4 months ahead to see how the rest of the season pans out.

I think Nadal and Murray go in as equal favourites for the Wimbledon title right now.

 

[ozgamer]

I think Nadal and Murray go in as equal favourites for the Wimbledon title right now.

I give Murray the nod. I'd like to see Nadal get through to the qtrs first. Something he hasn't done in years.

 

[BobbyMorri]

I give Murray the nod. I'd like to see Nadal get through to the qtrs first. Something he hasn't done in years.

yeah, i think someone will over power Nadal at Wimbledon. Indeed, i would rate Milos and Kyrgios(to name 2 of the biggest hitters) as favs against Nadal if they played later this month.

read today that Fed plans to not have another break this year. if that is the case, it is tough to see how he will be overtaken if he showcases his early form. i thought he would miss at least one masters and perhaps the Year ending champs to give him a bigger break before Australia.

 

[pepsi]

yeah, i think someone will over power Nadal at Wimbledon. Indeed, i would rate Milos and Kyrgios(to name 2 of the biggest hitters) as favs against Nadal if they played later this month.

I'm not convinced he will be overpowered. I was interested to find out his Wimbledon record so I looked at his career statistics at SW19.

Out of the 6 times he has made the 4th round on the grass, he has gone on to make the final 5 times. He's only ever had 1 loss in the 4th, 1/4 final or 1/2 final stage and that was to a young Kyrgios who played a blinder that day and was a relative unknown.

What it shows me is that once he finds his game and groove on the grass, he is very difficult to stop. And let's be honest, you can't say anyone is near his level of form at the minute. Federer, Raonic and Kyrgios have all had significant layoffs and interruptions from the game over the last 3 months. It's in those early couple of rounds where Nadal might find trouble if he cops a big hitter or grass court specialist.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

I think Federer will end 2017 as world number 2 and Nadal will be the world no 1.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Federer will win wimbledon, 1 rusty tournament out of the way and he is back dominating again, Is 24-2 for the year heading into the part of the year he loves the most. The best grass court player on tour. Watched him against zverev and he just played lights out the whole match. Winners everywhere and almost impossible to break his serve. Zverev is playing like a top 10 player right now and could do nothing about it.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Federer will win wimbledon, 1 rusty tournament out of the way and he is back dominating again, Is 24-2 for the year heading into the part of the year he loves the most. The best grass court player on tour. Watched him against zverev and he just played lights out the whole match. Winners everywhere and almost impossible to break his serve. Zverev is playing like a top 10 player right now and could do nothing about it.

I'd agree that he's the favourite with Murray and Djokovic's poor form and Fed having the edge over Rafa on this surface.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

 

[gaelictiogar]

He playes Raonic in the round of 8 doesn't he? No easy draw. Raonic can beat him and has in the past. However you have to make him favourite.

Semi V Djokovic? Potential epic.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

He playes Raonic in the round of 8 doesn't he? No easy draw. Raonic can beat him and has in the past. However you have to make him favourite.

Semi V Djokovic? Potential epic.

Raonic isnt in the form he needs to be to beat him, would have to go up a couple of notches from what ive seen.