Son of a dictator wins.
Cannot believe they trust this corrupt family.
Incredible.
Cannot believe they trust this corrupt family.
Incredible.
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Ferdinand Marcos son wins election, like WTF?
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A well organized army of trolls and bloggers flooding the socials with disinformation.
Combine this with a young voting demographic,
millenials and gen z make up 37% and 16% of the population respectively,allowed Bongbong to smoke the opposition.
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How long do we give it until he has maneuvered himself from being elected based on disinformation being spread in an imperfect democracy to being able to wield power as a full blown dictator like his old man? What triggers do we think he will use?
The Communist Party of the Philippines through it's armed wing, the New People's Army have been waging an insurrection since the late 1960s at about the beginning of the reign of Ferdinand Marcos, in fact Marcos used the conflict as the main driver in declaring a state of martial law, thus beginning the dictatorship in earnest.
There are estimated to be roughy 1,000 or so active soldiers in the NPA as well as perhaps 5 times more that amount assisting with non combat roles. This doesn't seem like enough justification to declare martial law, but it is crucial to remember that the government regards the party itself as not just an illegal party, but as a terrorist organisation in and of itself and even conservative estimates put the party membership at up around 100k, with millions more members of explicitly communist controlled trade unions, peasants organisations and even youth social clubs coming under the broader 'National Democratic Front' which troublingly, has also been declared to be a terrorist organisation.
So in that sense, Marcos can already claim the 'terrorist' problem is literally in the millions, even though in reality the vast majority of these 'terrorists' are ordinary workers or pinko uni students.
The other terrorist angle he could go after is in the region of Mindanao, which has long been the site of conflict between various armed local groups and the central government. I don't know as much about this conflict so I'll keep it short. The region has many differences from the rest of the Philippines with the residents feeling they are ethnically and culturally independent of the rest of the Philippines. Notably, unlike the rest of the country being largely Catholic, Mindanao is largely Islamic.
Again, conflict kicked up here (surprise, surprise) around the start of Ferdinand's rule. Various guerilla armies fought here, some secular nationalist and some also nationalist but with more focus on Islam. Some wanted total independence, some just wanted a special type of administrative status. The conflict has died down in recent years, but the groups that are still armed and considered most dangerous are radical Islamist groupings.
This is obviously interesting as hypothetically, if a jihadist group managed to gain momentum in a country as big and strategically based as the Philippines, Ferdinand could possibly 'suspend democracy' with tacit support from the West in the interests of the never-ending 'war on terror'.
Anyway, I might be coming across as a bit over the top, but I know quite a few Filipino trade unionists here in Melbourne quite well who were tortured under Marcos and haven't felt safe enough to head back over there even for a visit in the 36 years since Marcos was overthrown because the police never really evolved and still quite viciously attack anything or anyone seen as a fellow traveller of the CPP-NPA. I asked them how long they thought it would take for Marcos to effectively shut everyone bar himself, the military and the coppers out of power and the common thought seems to be within 2 years.
If you've made it this far, you must be as boring a prick as I am lol.
What are your thoughts on how this will pan out?
The Communist Party of the Philippines through it's armed wing, the New People's Army have been waging an insurrection since the late 1960s at about the beginning of the reign of Ferdinand Marcos, in fact Marcos used the conflict as the main driver in declaring a state of martial law, thus beginning the dictatorship in earnest.
There are estimated to be roughy 1,000 or so active soldiers in the NPA as well as perhaps 5 times more that amount assisting with non combat roles. This doesn't seem like enough justification to declare martial law, but it is crucial to remember that the government regards the party itself as not just an illegal party, but as a terrorist organisation in and of itself and even conservative estimates put the party membership at up around 100k, with millions more members of explicitly communist controlled trade unions, peasants organisations and even youth social clubs coming under the broader 'National Democratic Front' which troublingly, has also been declared to be a terrorist organisation.
So in that sense, Marcos can already claim the 'terrorist' problem is literally in the millions, even though in reality the vast majority of these 'terrorists' are ordinary workers or pinko uni students.
The other terrorist angle he could go after is in the region of Mindanao, which has long been the site of conflict between various armed local groups and the central government. I don't know as much about this conflict so I'll keep it short. The region has many differences from the rest of the Philippines with the residents feeling they are ethnically and culturally independent of the rest of the Philippines. Notably, unlike the rest of the country being largely Catholic, Mindanao is largely Islamic.
Again, conflict kicked up here (surprise, surprise) around the start of Ferdinand's rule. Various guerilla armies fought here, some secular nationalist and some also nationalist but with more focus on Islam. Some wanted total independence, some just wanted a special type of administrative status. The conflict has died down in recent years, but the groups that are still armed and considered most dangerous are radical Islamist groupings.
This is obviously interesting as hypothetically, if a jihadist group managed to gain momentum in a country as big and strategically based as the Philippines, Ferdinand could possibly 'suspend democracy' with tacit support from the West in the interests of the never-ending 'war on terror'.
Anyway, I might be coming across as a bit over the top, but I know quite a few Filipino trade unionists here in Melbourne quite well who were tortured under Marcos and haven't felt safe enough to head back over there even for a visit in the 36 years since Marcos was overthrown because the police never really evolved and still quite viciously attack anything or anyone seen as a fellow traveller of the CPP-NPA. I asked them how long they thought it would take for Marcos to effectively shut everyone bar himself, the military and the coppers out of power and the common thought seems to be within 2 years.
If you've made it this far, you must be as boring a prick as I am lol.
What are your thoughts on how this will pan out?
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It didn't surprise me that he got in he also has Duterte daughter as vice president and she sounds like a chip off the old block. I would imagine with the amount of money the Marcos allegedly pilfered first time around Marcos Jnr was probably the best funded candidate as well.
Doesn't seem to have any solid policies but rumoured to be looking at changing the law around how long presidents can serve. Has already said he won't prosecute Duterte for any of his excesses.
Ferdinand Marcos was a very well spoken pro western president who was useful during the cold war but was an absolute thug and thief to his own people.
Even after he was forced from power his wife and son and daughter have all been elected as senators !!. You sort have to give up and say well you keep voting for this your going to get what you deserve.
2 years sounds about right there will be another trumped up 'emergency'....
Doesn't seem to have any solid policies but rumoured to be looking at changing the law around how long presidents can serve. Has already said he won't prosecute Duterte for any of his excesses.
Ferdinand Marcos was a very well spoken pro western president who was useful during the cold war but was an absolute thug and thief to his own people.
Even after he was forced from power his wife and son and daughter have all been elected as senators !!. You sort have to give up and say well you keep voting for this your going to get what you deserve.
2 years sounds about right there will be another trumped up 'emergency'....
The benefits of being able to steal so much money as a US-backed dictatorship (who got flown to Hawaii by the US Air Force, lived with their wealth there and were provided a security detail by the US Government) is you can afford to have people bought off and rewrite history.
Work with a few Phillipino guys.
Old mate explaining to me 'The Phillipino Solution'.
Build smaller prisons,build bigger cemeteries.
I wouldn't be surprised to see this expanded on in the next few years .
Good history/summary.
Probably should consider the focus on China more too. All that social media/trolling assistance might have come from one of their many bot farms.
Democracy really is under attack from misinformation spread on social media. While the Marcoses were ousted, corruption was never really rooted out of the system. The police were still corrupt, the system was still corrupt.
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Currently they can only serve one 6 year term I think.
It was bad enough they voted for Duterte now they double down with the son of a dictator! My wife is Filipino and her family are upset/stunned that a Marcos could be voted in. I've seen comments from some of their FB friends that the electronic voting system has been corrupted but then others have commented their support for him! Unbelievable. Apparently Marcos was in Melbourne on Wednesday and some of my in laws friends went to the city just to see him! I was just shaking my head, what can you do...
The progress of a democracy isn't not a straight line. THere's always bumps in the road. There were a lot of monarchies which came back after democracy had been perceived a failure, before being revived again.
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Oh they are hardcore Catholic which I just don't get. My kids don't even know who Jesus is though (discussing with my 6yo the other day he thought "Jesus" is just something people say when they're angry
).I asked my wife why they would continue to worship a religion foisted upon them by their colonisers but it's just something I haven't had to deal with I guess so I don't get it.
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