Prediction Final Ladder Predictions - Give me yours

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Pretty simple concept. Go here - http://www.afl.com.au/ladder/ladder-predictor - fill out the ladder predictor and post what your ladder looks like at the end of the minor round. Add in the finals as well if you like.

Here's mine:

 

[Scorpus]

1. Adelaide (66 points) - WLW
2. GWS (60) - LWL
3. Richmond (60) - LWW
4. Sydney (56) - WWW
5. Bulldogs (56) - WWW
6. Geelong (54) - WLL
7. Port Adelaide (52) - WLW
8. Melbourne (48) - WWL

Essendon missing the 8 on percentage

I'd then have us facing Sydney in the Qualifier, and either the Bulldogs in a Semi if we lose, or Geelong in a Prelim if we win

Ouch.

 

[crows dude]

 

[Vooligan]

This is with us losing the Sydney game next week.

A Qualifier vs Geelong scares the heck out of me...

 

[Vooligan]

Scorpus & crows dude I think you're both underrating Richmond. They will beat a very undermanned Geelong this week, and then cruise home to easy wins against Freo and Saints.

 

[Scorpus]

Scorpus & crows dude I think you're both underrating Richmond. They will beat a very undermanned Geelong this week, and then cruise home to easy wins against Freo and Saints.

I think Richmond are a much better side than Geelong this week, but I see them getting bamboozled by Simonds Stadium. They look at their best on a wide open ground like the MCG; I think the stupid dimensions of Simonds will play into Geelong's hands.

Plus we'll see a very defensive game as both teams have weakened forward lines but strong defences.

 

[Vooligan]

I think Richmond are a much better side than Geelong this week, but I see them getting bamboozled by Simonds Stadium. They look at their best on a wide open ground like the MCG; I think the stupid dimensions of Simonds will play into Geelong's hands.

Plus we'll see a very defensive game as both teams have weakened forward lines but strong defences.

I hope you're right.. As I said in the Finals Watch thread, it would be blessing for us, for Geelong to beat Richmond this week. It would go a long way to helping us cement a top 2 spot.

 

[Simmo28]

Scorpus & crows dude I think you're both underrating Richmond. They will beat a very undermanned Geelong this week, and then cruise home to easy wins against Freo and Saints.

The only argument against this is Richmonds mental fortitude. They are known to implode at times and maybe it will come in last few rounds. Don't discount a wounded Geelong, I think they will bounce back this week.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[adelaidecrows]

I've done this a few times now and I can't see us losing another match for the year......unless we really drop off. Anyways, there is no excuses to dropping a game for the rest of the year. I predict we will encounter GWS at AO which will be a tough game. They don't play well from home and they are falling away pretty badly. However they are capable of playing scary football like us. Its probably better to get them now then in the prelim. Port I think we finish anywhere from 5th to 7th. Either way to face one of Melbourne, Bulldogs or Sydney will be not what they want and I can't see Richmond dropping down into the bottom 5, its more likely to be GWS. Can't see Port making it past the 2nd week of finals even if they do surprise and win their elimination final. Big week in Adelaide if both teams get home finals thats for sure.

 

[Vooligan]

I had forgotten that the Geelong vs Richmond game was in Geelong. I guess that brings it more towards a level playing field then. But if Richmond are serious about contending this year, they simply must beat Geelong when they're missing that many of their stars.

I wish we could get a shot at Geelong in Geelong when they're that wounded.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

View attachment 402100

View attachment 402101

So I'm guessing you have the Tigers losing to Fremantle and GWS to the Bulldogs (plus both losing to Geelong)?

Interesting picks.

 

[Maddogmetro]

I've got us finishing second below Richmond, with GWS third and Cats fourth.

Richmond has a good chance of winning all three remaining games, while the pessimist in me (the one that has watched losses at the end of our seasons kill our chances) sees us losing both to Sydney and West Coast.

 

[GameofSloanes]

Richmond 64
Adelaide 62
GWS 60
Geelong 58
Sydney 56
Port 52
Melbourne 52
Bulldogs 52

Given my performance in the tips there is no chance of this actually occurring. But vooligan and maddog have similar thoughts it seems

Extremely important to win the qualifying final regardless of who we play

 

[PCORF]

1 Adelaide
2 Richmond
3 Geelong
4 Sydney
5 Western Bulldogs
6 Port Adelaide
7 GWS Giants
8 Melbourne

If we want to win the flag this year we have to beat Sydney or Geelong. Both teams are intimidating and both have a key former Crows player on their team. But if we focus we can beat them. Maybe a loss to Sydney in R22 may be the best thing that will ever happen to this club shall we rematch them in the finals.

Adelaide finishes 1st, but the bad news is that Sydney finish 4th. Adelaide has never reached the Grand Final from the top 2 so they have to make history this year. I think Richmond can grab 2nd spot now even if they did lose to Geelong this weekend but won their last 2 games.
I think one of the two Qualifying finals is the Grand Final matchup for 2017. But if Adelaide can win their QF, goodness me what a moment that will be. It is hard enough to win in this league. I still think Adelaide can reach the GF even after losing the QF, but winning the next 2 games especially if they met Richmond in the preliminary final. But we'll see who makes it there.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

1 Adelaide
2 Richmond
3 Geelong
4 Sydney
5 Western Bulldogs
6 Port Adelaide
7 GWS Giants
8 Melbourne

If we want to win the flag this year we have to beat Sydney or Geelong. Both teams are intimidating and both have a key former Crows player on their team. But if we focus we can beat them. Maybe a loss to Sydney in R22 may be the best thing that will ever happen to this club shall we rematch them in the finals.

Adelaide finishes 1st, but the bad news is that Sydney finish 4th. Adelaide has never reached the Grand Final from the top 2 so they have to make history this year. I think Richmond can grab 2nd spot now even if they did lose to Geelong this weekend but won their last 2 games.
I think one of the two Qualifying finals is the Grand Final matchup for 2017. But if Adelaide can win their QF, goodness me what a moment that will be. It is hard enough to win in this league. I still think Adelaide can reach the GF even after losing the QF, but winning the next 2 games especially if they met Richmond in the preliminary final. But we'll see who makes it there.

So you don't think GWS wins any of their last 3 games?

 

[Huntercrow]

Just some interesting comparisons with 2016. I think it's easy to forget how well we were travelling heading towards the finals last year.

Round 20 2016 Crows were 3rd with 14 wins 5 losses percentage of 141.2%
Round 20 2017 Crows are 1st with 14 wins 4 losses and a draw Percentage of 141.5%

The 2016 Crows had won 54 quarters to 52 in 2017

The 2016 Crows had scored 20 more points and won 14 first qtrs to 8 this season.

Just on these few stats the 2 Crows teams are pretty much neck and neck on the back of their own performances.
The main difference being the evenness of the competition this year and the slow start by Sydney.

Considering the 2016 Crows won 2 of their last three minor round games they were pretty stiff to finish as low as 5th.
That round 23 loss arguably cost us a premiership. The Dogs took their chances and we blew it in the space of 1 game.

So trying to predict who will win the premiership in a year where the competition is so even is problematical.

I predict the Crows will be smarter with selection, that they will not play anyone with suspect fitness and they will not enter round 23 in holiday mode.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Just some interesting comparisons with 2016. I think it's easy to forget how well we were travelling heading towards the finals last year.

Round 20 2016 Crows were 3rd with 14 wins 5 losses percentage of 141.2%
Round 20 2017 Crows are 1st with 14 wins 4 losses and a draw Percentage of 141.5%

The 2016 Crows had won 54 quarters to 52 in 2017

The 2016 Crows had scored 20 more points and won 14 first qtrs to 8 this season.

Just on these few stats the 2 Crows teams are pretty much neck and neck on the back of their own performances.
The main difference being the evenness of the competition this year and the slow start by Sydney.

Considering the 2016 Crows won 2 of their last three minor round games they were pretty stiff to finish as low as 5th.
That round 23 loss arguably cost us a premiership. The Dogs took their chances and we blew it in the space of 1 game.

So trying to predict who will win the premiership in a year where the competition is so even is problematical.

I predict the Crows will be smarter with selection, that they will not play anyone with suspect fitness and they will not enter round 23 in holiday mode.

The biggest difference is there aren't as many dominant teams this year. We could finish top this year with less points than we had last year.

 

[Scorpus]

Just some interesting comparisons with 2016. I think it's easy to forget how well we were travelling heading towards the finals last year.

Round 20 2016 Crows were 3rd with 14 wins 5 losses percentage of 141.2%
Round 20 2017 Crows are 1st with 14 wins 4 losses and a draw Percentage of 141.5%

The 2016 Crows had won 54 quarters to 52 in 2017

The 2016 Crows had scored 20 more points and won 14 first qtrs to 8 this season.

Just on these few stats the 2 Crows teams are pretty much neck and neck on the back of their own performances.
The main difference being the evenness of the competition this year and the slow start by Sydney.

Considering the 2016 Crows won 2 of their last three minor round games they were pretty stiff to finish as low as 5th.
That round 23 loss arguably cost us a premiership. The Dogs took their chances and we blew it in the space of 1 game.

So trying to predict who will win the premiership in a year where the competition is so even is problematical.

I predict the Crows will be smarter with selection, that they will not play anyone with suspect fitness and they will not enter round 23 in holiday mode.

I think we're playing better football than last year but I'm not sure whether that's because we are better or because our opponents are worse

 

[Huntercrow]

I think we're playing better football than last year but I'm not sure whether that's because we are better or because our opponents are worse

We were flying by round 20.
That Perth game was an absolute gem. Broke records that day.
Sloane made us forget about whats his face. We knocked off Sydney. Young Mitch kicked 30 odd goals Betts kicked over 60. Jenkins kicked off his career, Mrouch and Lyons stepped up. All of this after only 1 jouno picked us to make the 8. It was a seriously good season against better opponents I think. Hawks and Sydney have both slipped since. Geelong are faltering. Our biggest threat is a team that lost their first 6 games but GWS will get players back from their huge injury list so they may be cherry ripe by the finals.
We could blow it all in the last 3 games. I dont think we will but we could easily lose all 3. This season aint over yet.

 

[John Who]

Just some interesting comparisons with 2016. I think it's easy to forget how well we were travelling heading towards the finals last year.

Round 20 2016 Crows were 3rd with 14 wins 5 losses percentage of 141.2%
Round 20 2017 Crows are 1st with 14 wins 4 losses and a draw Percentage of 141.5%

The 2016 Crows had won 54 quarters to 52 in 2017

The 2016 Crows had scored 20 more points and won 14 first qtrs to 8 this season.

Just on these few stats the 2 Crows teams are pretty much neck and neck on the back of their own performances.
The main difference being the evenness of the competition this year and the slow start by Sydney.

Considering the 2016 Crows won 2 of their last three minor round games they were pretty stiff to finish as low as 5th.
That round 23 loss arguably cost us a premiership. The Dogs took their chances and we blew it in the space of 1 game.

So trying to predict who will win the premiership in a year where the competition is so even is problematical.

I predict the Crows will be smarter with selection, that they will not play anyone with suspect fitness and they will not enter round 23 in holiday mode.

The stats you highlighted probably shows more that we had blew our chances last year when we were also the clear front runners, along with GWS and Sydney; and we certainly deserved to make it in the top 4 last year. The Doggies showed that the main thing is to have winning momentum leading towards the Finals, and other stats and position on the ladder doesn't really matter so much. If you end up near the top of the ladder and you have winning momentum leading towards the Major rounds, then that sets you up the best for a Premiership tilt.
In saying all this, we have definitely improved despite our percentage being relatively the same as last year. More so due to the fact the teams in the midsection of the ladder have generally all improved and are a genuine chance to make it into the Finals this year. Looking at the other teams percentages this year as well as last year, we are clearly the best performing percentage team. Whereas last year, I remember there was a logjam of all huge percentages for the top 5 teams last year.
Also, we are in a better position to cover 1 or 2 injuries this year compared with the last. We've given more opportunities of trialling a few more players, and can be more confident of giving them a chance should injuries occur. Otten is a perfect example. Even though likely he isn't in our best 22, but should there be injuries, he'd slot in ok, judging from past performances this year.

 

[Huntercrow]

Just some interesting comparisons with 2016. I think it's easy to forget how well we were travelling heading towards the finals last year.

Round 20 2016 Crows were 3rd with 14 wins 5 losses percentage of 141.2%
Round 20 2017 Crows are 1st with 14 wins 4 losses and a draw Percentage of 141.5%

The 2016 Crows had won 54 quarters to 52 in 2017

The 2016 Crows had scored 20 more points and won 14 first qtrs to 8 this season.

Just on these few stats the 2 Crows teams are pretty much neck and neck on the back of their own performances.
The main difference being the evenness of the competition this year and the slow start by Sydney.

Considering the 2016 Crows won 2 of their last three minor round games they were pretty stiff to finish as low as 5th.
That round 23 loss arguably cost us a premiership. The Dogs took their chances and we blew it in the space of 1 game.


So trying to predict who will win the premiership in a year where the competition is so even is problematical.

I predict the Crows will be smarter with selection, that they will not play anyone with suspect fitness and they will not enter round 23 in holiday mode.

Well...seems we have not learned anything from 2016!

 

[WetCrow1991]

Well...seems we have not learned anything from 2016!

The difference is last year we could see players were injured by how they were playing. This year the players are performing and it is just media fluff doing the rounds.

 

[huludicidal]

1. Adelaide (66 points) - WLW
2. GWS (60) - LWL
3. Richmond (60) - LWW
4. Sydney (56) - WWW
5. Bulldogs (56) - WWW
6. Geelong (54) - WLL
7. Port Adelaide (52) - WLW
8. Melbourne (48) - WWL

Essendon missing the 8 on percentage

I'd then have us facing Sydney in the Qualifier, and either the Bulldogs in a Semi if we lose, or Geelong in a Prelim if we win

Ouch.

You have Geelong and GWS both losing to each other in Round 23.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Don't we have several other threads about pretty much exactly the same thing?

 

[huludicidal]

View attachment 402111

I've done this a few times now and I can't see us losing another match for the year......unless we really drop off. Anyways, there is no excuses to dropping a game for the rest of the year. I predict we will encounter GWS at AO which will be a tough game. They don't play well from home and they are falling away pretty badly. However they are capable of playing scary football like us. Its probably better to get them now then in the prelim. Port I think we finish anywhere from 5th to 7th. Either way to face one of Melbourne, Bulldogs or Sydney will be not what they want and I can't see Richmond dropping down into the bottom 5, its more likely to be GWS. Can't see Port making it past the 2nd week of finals even if they do surprise and win their elimination final. Big week in Adelaide if both teams get home finals thats for sure.

Geelong 2nd? Yikes. Don't count on it!