Final Series Predictions - 2008

[Test Tickle]

OK, bit early i know, but I'll put my neck on the line here .

Taking into account that after Rd 7 the top 4 and bottom 4 will stay the same, ( i think we can all agree on that) it looks like a race between 5 teams to grab 5th and 6th place on the ladder.

I have Cobram into 5th place on 12 wins, then we have Tongala, Numurkah and Deniliquin (will have a better last half of the year, trust me on that one) all on 10 wins, and Tocumwal with 6 wins (hard draw).
So i guess it will come down to percentage for those 3 teams to take 6th place on the ladder, for me top 6 to look like this, in order, Barooga, Rumbalara, Nathalia, Moama, Cobram, Deniliquin.

Interested in everyones thoughts, Good luck .

 

[hank1]

Re: 2008 Final Series Predictions

OK, bit early i know, but I'll put my neck on the line here .

Taking into account that after Rd 7 the top 4 and bottom 4 will stay the same, ( i think we can all agree on that) it looks like a race between 5 teams to grab 5th and 6th place on the ladder.

I have Cobram into 5th place on 12 wins, then we have Tongala, Numurkah and Deniliquin (will have a better last half of the year, trust me on that one) all on 10 wins, and Tocumwal with 6 wins (hard draw).
So i guess it will come down to percentage for those 3 teams to take 6th place on the ladder, for me top 6 to look like this, in order, Barooga, Rumbalara, Nathalia, Moama, Cobram, Deniliquin.

Interested in everyones thoughts, Good luck .

Homer, sorry but going to have to slot Tongala in ahead of Deni, think you blokes will end up with 8 or 9 wins, will be a fair bit riding on our game mid year at Tonny, but still think even if u got up there you won't get the 10 wins needed. 5th and 6th will come from Numurkah, Cobram and Tongala.

 

[Test Tickle]

Re: 2008 Final Series Predictions

Homer, sorry but going to have to slot Tongala in ahead of Deni, think you blokes will end up with 8 or 9 wins, will be a fair bit riding on our game mid year at Tonny, but still think even if u got up there you won't get the 10 wins needed. 5th and 6th will come from Numurkah, Cobram and Tongala.

Fair enough , i might be a little biased on that one

 

[hank1]

Re: 2008 Final Series Predictions

Fair enough , i might be a little biased on that one

After todays results Homer does that change a couple of calculations?
Toc beating Numurkah, Tongala beating Cobram

 

[Test Tickle]

Re: 2008 Final Series Predictions

After todays results Homer does that change a couple of calculations?
Toc beating Numurkah, Tongala beating Cobram

Yep it does, think Tonny will definatley make it now, that a great win for you guys, still very interesting, especially for that 6th spot, Cob or Num or Deni. .

 

[tuckylives]

Re: 2008 Final Series Predictions

I've had a look at the run home for the top eight sides in the competition and compiled a ladder which I think may be what we'll be looking at come September. There may be one or two changes depending on percentage and a couple of other factors, but I think I might have it pretty right. Any criticism/input/discussion is encouraged.

 

[Test Tickle]

Re: 2008 Final Series Predictions

i've Had A Look At The Run Home For The Top Eight Sides In The Competition And Compiled A Ladder Which I Think May Be What We'll Be Looking At Come September. There May Be One Or Two Changes Depending On Percentage And A Couple Of Other Factors, But I Think I Might Have It Pretty Right. Any Criticism/input/discussion Is Encouraged.

Doh!!

 

[tuckylives]

Re: 2008 Final Series Predictions

Doh!!

Sorry to burst your bubble Homer, but I based my ladder on wins and losses for each team for the remainder of the season.
In your final nine games of the season, you come up against Tongala, Tocumwal, Numurkah, Cobram, Moama, Rumbalara, Mulwala, Finley and Nathalia.
I penciled the boys to win against Tocumwal, Mulwala and Finley, but you could also come close to Cobram, having only lost to them by 22 points in round three.

 

[hank1]

Re: 2008 Final Series Predictions

Tucky you have me a bit worried here, I thought we only played 18 games for the year, do we have to front up against someone else that I don't know about?
Your ladder looks about right to me, when I went through and did that back in May when this thread started I think I had Deni winning 8 or 9 if they knocked us off (We will have that answered at half 4 Satdy), had us winning 11, didnt have us beating Rumba, and to lose one of our last two against Numurkah or Cobram. Had Numurkah on 11 to take the other spot in the 6. I'll stick with that order, games won may be different.

Barooga and Moama will finish top 2, whoever wins their game in Rd 19 will finish on top with 17 wins, the other 16.
Nathalia to finish 3rd on % from Rumba with both on 14 wins
Tongala 5th on 13 wins IF we win the games we are expected & lose to Nath & Barooga.
Numurkah to finish 6th on 10 wins maybe 11 if they beat us at their deck.
Cobram 9 wins
Deni 8 wins.

 

[tuckylives]

Re: 2008 Final Series Predictions

Tucky you have me a bit worried here, I thought we only played 18 games for the year, do we have to front up against someone else that I don't know about?

You're right mate, just had another glance over the draw to find that there are two rounds (round 9 & round 22) which the Murray League only has ten teams playing and one listed as having the bye - so there's our problem.
I must say, something that has kind of irritated me this season is the way they have fixured the games. Nathalia had two byes prior to round 11, yet Moama didn't have their first bye until round 13, and wont have their second until round 20.

 

[hank1]

Re: 2008 Final Series Predictions

You're right mate, just had another glance over the draw to find that there are two rounds (round 9 & round 22) which the Murray League only has ten teams playing and one listed as having the bye - so there's our problem.
I must say, something that has kind of irritated me this season is the way they have fixured the games. Nathalia had two byes prior to round 11, yet Moama didn't have their first bye until round 13, and wont have their second until round 20.

And then another Round 22 and more than likely another the week after for finishing in the top 2. Four weeks one game of football could be their undoing when they more than likely come up against Barooga in the 2nd semi.
Must say Moama were worried about this before the season started and tried to get our game from round 9 played in Round 22 instead, didnt suit us as it meant we would only play 2 home game in the first 10 rounds. All to do with the Good Friday game so not the leagues fault on that one.

 

[tuckylives]

Re: 2008 Final Series Predictions

And then another Round 22 and more than likely another the week after for finishing in the top 2. Four weeks one game of football could be their undoing when they more than likely come up against Barooga in the 2nd semi.
Must say Moama were worried about this before the season started and tried to get our game from round 9 played in Round 22 instead, didnt suit us as it meant we would only play 2 home game in the first 10 rounds. All to do with the Good Friday game so not the leagues fault on that one.

Ah yes, makes sense now. And yes, you're right, four weeks and only one game could really throw them around. I guess the coming weeks will really show whether they are pretenders or contenders.

 

[Test Tickle]

Numurkah to grab 6th place this year i feel, have a much better run home than Rams and Cobram.

Nathalia v Barooga Grand Final.

Tongala, have had a great draw this year and wont cause to many problems for the "Big 4" in the final series.

 

[hank1]

Numurkah to grab 6th place this year i feel, have a much better run home than Rams and Cobram.

Nathalia v Barooga Grand Final.

Tongala, have had a great draw this year and wont cause to many problems for the "Big 4" in the final series.

Have said all along that I was happy with our draw, but I will put the facts out to show that we are no better off than anyone else vying for the last couple of spots.

I have listed the sides that each team plays twice.
Deni - Moama, Nathalia, Rumba, Cobram, Mulwala, Finley
Play three top 6 sides who are all in the top 3, one other contender and two bottom 4 sides.
Cobram - Barooga, Tongala, Deni, Toc, Ech Utd, Congupna
Play two top 6 sides including only one top 4, two other contenders and two bottom 4 sides.
Numurkah - Barooga, Nathalia, Tongala, Toc, Ech Utd, Congupna.
Play three Top 6 including two in top 4, one contender and two bottom 4.
Tongala - Moama, Numurkah, Cobram, Toc, Ech Utd, Congupna
Play two Top 6, only one in Top 4, two contenders, two bottom 4.
Toc - Barooga, Tongala, Numurkah, Cobram, Ech Utd, Congupna
Play three top 6, only one top 4, one contender and two bottom 4

And one just for interest
Rumba - Nathalia, Deni, Ech Utd, Mulwala, Congupna Finley
Play One top 6 side, one contender, and all of the bottom 4 sides.

I'd be more than happy to swap with Rumba, would have no problem taking on Cobram or Tocs draw, Numurkah is slightly harder and Deni play 3 top 4 sides, but that is not why Deni won't make the finals the reason for that is because they lost against Cobram, Numurkah and Tongala all of whom they were vying for the final two spots with.

 

[morgs01]

Have said all along that I was happy with our draw, but I will put the facts out to show that we are no better off than anyone else vying for the last couple of spots.

I have listed the sides that each team plays twice.
Deni - Moama, Nathalia, Rumba, Cobram, Mulwala, Finley
Play three top 6 sides who are all in the top 3, one other contender and two bottom 4 sides.
Cobram - Barooga, Tongala, Deni, Toc, Ech Utd, Congupna
Play two top 6 sides including only one top 4, two other contenders and two bottom 4 sides.
Numurkah - Barooga, Nathalia, Tongala, Toc, Ech Utd, Congupna.
Play three Top 6 including two in top 4, one contender and two bottom 4.
Tongala - Moama, Numurkah, Cobram, Toc, Ech Utd, Congupna
Play two Top 6, only one in Top 4, two contenders, two bottom 4.
Toc - Barooga, Tongala, Numurkah, Cobram, Ech Utd, Congupna
Play three top 6, only one top 4, one contender and two bottom 4

And one just for interest
Rumba - Nathalia, Deni, Ech Utd, Mulwala, Congupna Finley
Play One top 6 side, one contender, and all of the bottom 4 sides.

I'd be more than happy to swap with Rumba, would have no problem taking on Cobram or Tocs draw, Numurkah is slightly harder and Deni play 3 top 4 sides, but that is not why Deni won't make the finals the reason for that is because they lost against Cobram, Numurkah and Tongala all of whom they were vying for the final two spots with.

I'm pretty sure we play Barooga twice as well. hank. Have some good news for Deni Rams. Last year it was the "Dreamtime @ the 'G' game, this year it's the Australian Counrty Football Champions with up to 6 of Rumbalara's best players selected to play for the Aboriginal All Stars team in Div 2. I think it's fair to say we will be well below our best side for the return Deni game next weekend.

But having said that good luck to Clinton Edwards, John Jackson, Darren Turner, Rex Taylor and Corey Wanganeen(who where both due to play this game with the Bendigo Bombers having the bye). With Josh Wanganeen on standby.

 

[Test Tickle]

I'm pretty sure we play Barooga twice as well. hank. Have some good news for Deni Rams. Last year it was the "Dreamtime @ the 'G' game, this year it's the Australian Counrty Football Champions with up to 6 of Rumbalara's best players selected to play for the Aboriginal All Stars team in Div 2. I think it's fair to say we will be well below our best side for the return Deni game next weekend.

But having said that good luck to Clinton Edwards, John Jackson, Darren Turner, Rex Taylor and Corey Wanganeen(who where both due to play this game with the Bendigo Bombers having the bye). With Josh Wanganeen on standby.

We very lucky last year morgs, this year to by the sound of it, but we still need to play 110% to beat you guys, very classy outfit and deserve to play finals no doubt.

 

[hank1]

I'm pretty sure we play Barooga twice as well. hank. Have some good news for Deni Rams. Last year it was the "Dreamtime @ the 'G' game, this year it's the Australian Counrty Football Champions with up to 6 of Rumbalara's best players selected to play for the Aboriginal All Stars team in Div 2. I think it's fair to say we will be well below our best side for the return Deni game next weekend.

But having said that good luck to Clinton Edwards, John Jackson, Darren Turner, Rex Taylor and Corey Wanganeen(who where both due to play this game with the Bendigo Bombers having the bye). With Josh Wanganeen on standby.

I'm sure your glad to find out that no you don't play them twice, the abnormality comes from the 2nd time you were due to play them on Aug 9th you both have the bye.
Having all those blokes out will really test you against Deni for sure, but I am sure those players will come back better for the experience.

 

[morgs01]

I'm sure your glad to find out that no you don't play them twice, the abnormality comes from the 2nd time you were due to play them on Aug 9th you both have the bye.
Having all those blokes out will really test you against Deni for sure, but I am sure those players will come back better for the experience.

Well there you go Hank we don't get to play barroga twice. Shame as i think back at our home ground we would avenge that 3 piont loss earlier this season up there.

Also just had a look at the draw for the ACFC and there is a rest day on the Saturday soooooooo you never know, Deni might not be that lucky yet.

and good luck to Phil Guthrie on his return to senior footy this weekend.