Finals predictions

[Crusha]

Did you have us losing a game, or Giants, Cats and Port all winning both their remaining games?

I'd be shocked if Freo dropped both their games against GWS and Port - surely they'll win at least one of those two.

As I indicated, I was still suffering from Round 22 depression at the time ..... (and not yet fully recovered).

Had us losing one ... either an away struggle this week or a shock home capitulation the next (like last week).

Of the others contending, allowing same win one , lose one record (except for Geel):

Freo - L away v 4th, W at Home v 3rd
Port - W home v 15th, L away v 9th
Giants - W home v 9th, L away v 6th (at Ballarat)
Cats - W both, v 14th & 16th, both in Melbourne

Hoping for 2 wins, and top 4 (so long as Port & Giants don't win both) ............. and Friday optimism may well factor in when the Predictor is rerun.

 

[Paul Mac]

If we played Hawthorn or GWS ( no Riccardi), I would consider adding some further speed off CHB and whilst he has been solid all year, Lester who usually gets the 4th or 5th forward would be my out, with possibly McKenna or Answerth included.

Lester may not be quick but he is still a smart footballer. McKennas disposal when last in the team was schizenhousen. Only my opinion but no way is Lester coming out for McKenna specifically or answerth. Adding a little bit of speed in Mckenna is not going to solve the speed issues, we will be more goals down in mckennas turnovers and lack of accountability in picking up a player.
Just remember we kick just abit better in the GWS game and they aint coming back from 50 points down in first quarter.
My opinion no changes bar the injuries coming in re hipwood for joyce or smith. Collingwood dont have massive talls on forward line so hipwood may not need to go play back.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Colour me shocked.

I believe it when I see the finals schedule.

 

[Dom PC]

In all honesty I think we'll lose this weekend and win next weekend. Which means we finish 5th. It's a shame, because I think our best is the best in the league and we have last years GF loss as motivation. But winning 4 finals in a row (three away from the Gabba) would be a minor miracle.

I know the media throw this line out all the time and I don't agree with them in any prior years, but this year was our best chance at winning it IMO. I think most top 8 teams have natural improvement in them, for us I am not so sure. We will start to have a few key players 31 or older on the wane (Neale, Daniher, Zorko, Cameron and Big O). Which I think will mean we might be a top 5 list still, but probably not a top 2 list.

At least we have a GF to show for our 5 year dominance (I was worried we'd be a Western Bulldogs of 07 to 10 type era where they were good, but never made a GF).

 

[M Malice]

In all honesty I think we'll lose this weekend and win next weekend. Which means we finish 5th. It's a shame, because I think our best is the best in the league and we have last years GF loss as motivation. But winning 4 finals in a row (three away from the Gabba) would be a minor miracle.

I know the media throw this line out all the time and I don't agree with them in any prior years, but this year was our best chance at winning it IMO. I think most top 8 teams have natural improvement in them, for us I am not so sure. We will start to have a few key players 31 or older on the wane (Neale, Daniher, Zorko, Cameron and Big O). Which I think will mean we might be a top 5 list still, but probably not a top 2 list.

At least we have a GF to show for our 5 year dominance (I was worried we'd be a Western Bulldogs of 07 to 10 type era where they were good, but never made a GF).

IMO those 5 players you mentioned still have at least 1 top level year in them, exception is if any of them cops a significant injury before the 2025 season starts.

Of the ACL 5 a fit Kiddy Coleman has a big positive impact, Tom Doedee would too but I am doubtful he gets back to his best after 3 ACLs.

Natural improvement from younger guys like Lohmann, Brain, Reville, Morris, plus W.Ashcroft with a full pre season post ACL, L.Ashcroft coming to the club... and I think there is still improvement in Rayner with another pre season into him as well.

I am also bullish on McLachlan and Beecken.

IMO with a decent injury run we will be better in 2025 regardless of how 2024 ends.

 

[On the quiet]

Lester may not be quick but he is still a smart footballer. McKennas disposal when last in the team was schizenhousen. Only my opinion but no way is Lester coming out for McKenna specifically or answerth. Adding a little bit of speed in Mckenna is not going to solve the speed issues, we will be more goals down in mckennas turnovers and lack of accountability in picking up a player.
Just remember we kick just abit better in the GWS game and they aint coming back from 50 points down in first quarter.
My opinion no changes bar the injuries coming in re hipwood for joyce or smith. Collingwood dont have massive talls on forward line so hipwood may not need to go play back.

My proposal only related to two teams and especially Hawthorn. Lester (who has been very solid) would be the one to go IF we were looking for more speed across CHB playing Hawthorn and possibly GWS. As for the other possible top 8 contenders I would be keeping Lester for the reasons you have articulated.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

In all honesty I think we'll lose this weekend and win next weekend. Which means we finish 5th. It's a shame, because I think our best is the best in the league and we have last years GF loss as motivation. But winning 4 finals in a row (three away from the Gabba) would be a minor miracle.

I know the media throw this line out all the time and I don't agree with them in any prior years, but this year was our best chance at winning it IMO. I think most top 8 teams have natural improvement in them, for us I am not so sure. We will start to have a few key players 31 or older on the wane (Neale, Daniher, Zorko, Cameron and Big O). Which I think will mean we might be a top 5 list still, but probably not a top 2 list.

At least we have a GF to show for our 5 year dominance (I was worried we'd be a Western Bulldogs of 07 to 10 type era where they were good, but never made a GF).

I still maintain that 2020 & 2023 were our years but we failed to capitalise. We should have won 2 premierships since our renaissance started in 2019.

We were never supposed to be in serious contention by the midpoint of this season with our injuries and our losses yet somehow we went on a 9 game winning streak. This time last week we were half a game from top spot and got ourselves into a position where we were in the box seat to go all the way back to the grand final.

We still might, that remains to be seen in the next month or so. But I think 2025 will be our best opportunity yet with better injury luck hopefully and key inclusions into our best 22.

 

[martinson]

I still maintain that 2020 & 2023 were our years but we failed to capitalise. We should have won 2 premierships since our renaissance started in 2019.

We were never supposed to be in serious contention by the midpoint of this season with our injuries and our losses yet somehow we went on a 9 game winning streak. This time last week we were half a game from top spot and got ourselves into a position where we were in the box seat to go all the way back to the grand final.

We still might, that remains to be seen in the next month or so. But I think 2025 will be our best opportunity yet with better injury luck hopefully and key inclusions into our best 22.

The thing everyone who supports any team completely underestimates is how big the gap is between generational A Graders and the capacity of the next generation to reach that level.

I don't see how any of those coming through could be guaranteed of being near as good as Neale , Zorko , Daniher , Cameron , Andrews for a start, so we really need to win one while they're still playing otherwise we'll drop off to some extent , if not a lot imo.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

 

[notliondown]

It says a lot about the strangeness of this season that we are still 2nd fav for the flag really.

I have a feeling we will fall short this year... and initially I was pissed when I came to that conclusion but in reality it's hard to be given our injuries. Making finals will be a huge accomplishment and top 4 will be some sort of bonus. If we go all the way I'll be ecstatic but I won't be devastated if we don't.

The biggest win this year is unearthing talent we didn't know we had. I dare say Fages would have kept it that way too knowing his selection conservatism had the original mainstays been available.

Next year I hope we continue to expose AND PLAY the guys we have come to rely on this year. Coleman (and Doodee?) might be the only real certainty to get his spot and that's how it should be.

Think we win 1, maybe 2 finals then bow out.

 

[Big Sauce 21]

I think the importance of top 2 this year could very well win you the big one. No Big MCG home teams going to be an issue. Fair chance it will be interstate v interstate. Marvelous thing if it was to occur.

 

[lionsrules]

This is what kills me; had we been able to get top two, there was a strong chance that the GF would have been against a fellow non Victorian team which let’s be honest is far easier winning it than against a Victorian team. Hearing the likes of Dunkley and Neale in the media this week, it didn’t appear to bother them or certainly acknowledge what a lost opportunity that has been wasted by losing last weekend.

And before banging on about them not saying it publicly, I ask why not because most Lions fans I know are thinking it or do we just pretend these things haven’t happened?

I don’t think anyone denies that it didn’t happen. I don’t want the players to say it publically …. Because it’s admitting defeat to a campaign that isn’t over. It’s a real crap mentality for a player to have to be honest. I want the players during the week to talk about the upcoming game and the opportunity to get back on track. Supporters can discuss it and say “oh if only that Carlton game in round one or if ah Chee just soccered a behind to
Snatch a win against the crows we would have breathing space” this is a mental game as well as a physical game. Why would they discuss the past ? For a player it’s moving on getting on with it. The opportunity this weekend is playing at the G heading towards September …. Beating the team that pinched the flag off us and burying their finals aspirations. It’s got nothing to do with “had we kicked straight then blah”.
We’ve won 6 at the Gabba and won 7 on the road. Think we are doing ok. The start of the year was a mental thing more than anything. Mental scars and complacency.

 

[Paul Mac]

My proposal only related to two teams and especially Hawthorn. Lester (who has been very solid) would be the one to go IF we were looking for more speed across CHB playing Hawthorn and possibly GWS. As for the other possible top 8 contenders I would be keeping Lester for the reasons you have articulated.

Yep Got ya, thats why my point was im not making any changes to that GWS team. Kick straighter and that game is done and dusted at quarter time . Im keeping Froggy in against both those of teams. Hipwood would be only inclusion when playing GWS again.

 

[Section 5]

It says a lot about the strangeness of this season that we are still 2nd fav for the flag really.

I have a feeling we will fall short this year... and initially I was pissed when I came to that conclusion but in reality it's hard to be given our injuries. Making finals will be a huge accomplishment and top 4 will be some sort of bonus. If we go all the way I'll be ecstatic but I won't be devastated if we don't.

The biggest win this year is unearthing talent we didn't know we had. I dare say Fages would have kept it that way too knowing his selection conservatism had the original mainstays been available.

Next year I hope we continue to expose AND PLAY the guys we have come to rely on this year. Coleman (and Doodee?) might be the only real certainty to get his spot and that's how it should be.

Think we win 1, maybe 2 finals then bow out.

Bolded: After round 7 that result would not have been considered by most of us.
After round 22 i would still take 1 win and possibly 2 finals as a fair result for season 2024.

A lot will depend on if we finish top 4 or bottom 4 of the 8.

A win if we finish top 4 changes things completely. A home Gabba PF. Could bow out but i would take that.
Every other win/loss scenario makes things much harder.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

Best potential pathways to the grand final from 5th.

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Top 4 will likely be locked in, now. QF Sydney v Geelong at The SCG, Port v GWS at either Adelaide Oval or The Sydney Showgrounds. My prediction for the EF will be Brisbane v Carlton at The Gabba, and Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn at The MCG.

I think it'd likely be a Port Adelaide v GWS Grand final, but a Hawthorn v GWS Grand final would be my second choice, since Hawthorn will be the sleeper team, their current form is the best in the competition atm. I predicted Hawthorn to make the top 4 in 2024, last year, people thought that was absurd.

 

[JasRulz63]

It'll be an interesting finals series. Every team has shown they can completely s*** the bed at any moment this season, and most teams have done it more than once.

 

[Bucking Beads]

Won’t watch if we aren’t there. Don’t care but I’d prefer a non vic GF.

 

[Perrip]

Going to get Hawthorn in Brisbane for the first time in years in the worst way possible lol

 

[DreadBat5701894]

Going to get Hawthorn in Brisbane for the first time in years in the worst way possible lol

View attachment 2083020

Isn’t that just current ladder position?

 

[dlanod]

Isn’t that just current ladder position?

The give away is the last line. But yeah, I think it'll be unlikely to end up being Hawthorn even before today's results.

 

[BRAB]

Home final
Geelong at neutral venue
Away against our bogey team

Win by 97 points against Sydney

Easy.

 

[dlanod]

View attachment 2083117

Home final
Geelong at neutral venue
Away against our bogey team

Win by 97 points against Sydney

Easy.

You've convinced me. I can't see how we're not premiers from here.

 

[M Malice]

I can not see us losing another game this season.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

View attachment 2083117

Home final
Geelong at neutral venue
Away against our bogey team

Win by 97 points against Sydney

Easy.

I do think we'd be a better match against Sydney in the semi final.