Finals predictions

[BRAB]

You've convinced me. I can't see how we're not premiers from here.

Pretty obvious we’re tanking for 5th

 

[vic_LION]

Getting Carlton at home finals week 1 would be a good way to start September. Games from there probably a 50/50

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

Hopefully this makes us elevate like in 2022 where we finished 6th and won finals against Richmond and Melbourne for the away final at the MCG. Obviously if we made the prelim I'd like to see a 10x better effort from us then that game against the cats.

 

[M Malice]

Looking like a good chance that we will be facing either the Blues or Bulldogs in an elimination final at the Gabba.

Other team in the bottom half of the 8 the Hawks have a soft kill v the Kangaroos next week so they are an unlikely opponent... Pheeew!

I am assuming we beat the Bombers and the Cats destroy the Eagles in the last round.

Bulldogs could miss the 8 altogether if they lose to the Giants next week and the Dockers beat Port.

 

[Sproj]

Man, if we've avoided Hawthorn, which it looks we have, that in itself is a win.

 

[Knight82]

Avoiding the hot Hawks in the bottom half of the 8 will be a huge win.

I still think our best footy can win it this year - we have actually played some good footy away from home this year. Maybe a Bulldogs 2016 type scenario coming up? The top 8 as a whole have all been rather flaky from time to time.

 

[Paul Mac]

Hopefully this makes us elevate like in 2022 where we finished 6th and won finals against Richmond and Melbourne for the away final at the MCG. Obviously if we made the prelim I'd like to see a 10x better effort from us then that game against the cats.

We let Tom Stewart roam around the half back line on his own that night. Hopefully we have learnt our lesson if we cop them again.

 

[vic_LION]

Man, if we've avoided Hawthorn, which it looks we have, that in itself is a win.

Carlton could still jump the hawks on percentage though, if the hawks have a close win and Carlton win by around 40 pts against the saints.

Let’s hope that doesn’t happen

 

[DreadBat5701894]

Feels like we're pretty comfortably the weakest team in the 8

 

[Sproj]

Goes to show how far we’ve fallen when so many are now wanting to avoid Hawthorn at all costs. How the might have fallen.

I mean it’s not like us not being able to beat them started a week ago, it’s been going on some time.

 

[dlanod]

Feels like we're pretty comfortably the weakest team in the 8

Carlton were getting flogged not too long ago. Freo have been on a bigger slide than us. Sydney has had losses 100 times worse than ours in the last month. Geelong just lost comprehensively to the Saints who we destroyed a few weeks back.

Not sure how two close losses fuels that logic. Yes it's disappointing the way they happened with us getting a lead and then getting run over in the last, but pretty much every other team in the top 8 has had games in the last month or two where they've been completely uncompetitive. We have not.

 

[mpal6]

Best potential pathways to the grand final from 5th.
View attachment 2082739View attachment 2082738View attachment 2082735View attachment 2082733

Last one I think is the most likely, but with a minor tweak.

EF against Carlton would be the start I'm after. If we win against Essendon and we beat Carlton at home then there is a 2 game winning run and a chance of us getting on a roll against Sydney away, Port away.

 

[M Malice]

Carlton were getting flogged not too long ago. Freo have been on a bigger slide than us. Sydney has had losses 100 times worse than ours in the last month. Geelong just lost comprehensively to the Saints who we destroyed a few weeks back.

Not sure how two close losses fuels that logic. Yes it's disappointing the way they happened with us getting a lead and then getting run over in the last, but pretty much every other team in the top 8 has had games in the last month or two where they've been completely uncompetitive. We have not.

Yes the catastrophising of our form has been a tad over the top from some.

It was not that long ago that pundits were saying the Swans were just too good for the rest of us and a flag was a shoe in.

I really do think this is one of the most open seasons in my time following the AFL(late 90s), my rating of the current top 9 is >

I would be surprised but not stunned if Port, Cats, Blues or Dockers won the flag.

Giants and Swans joint favourites simply because they will finish top 4.

Bulldogs, Hawks, Lions even though bottom half of the 8 are well and truly in it, just need to get on a roll in September, the pre finals bye is a godsend for them.

 

[mpal6]

Yes the catastrophising of our form has been a tad over the top from some.

It was not that long ago that pundits were saying the Swans were just too good for the rest of us and a flag was a shoe in.

I really do think this is one of the most open seasons in my time following the AFL(late 90s), my rating of the current top 9 is >

I would be surprised but not stunned if Port, Cats, Blues or Dockers won the flag.

Giants and Swans joint favourites simply because they will finish top 4.

Bulldogs, Hawks, Lions even though bottom half of the 8 are well and truly in it, just need to get on a roll in September, the pre finals bye is a godsend for them.

This year looks like a Giants flag to me. They've been answering and taking on all comers. While true that they've managed to sneak a win against Hawks at the last minute, it's their persistence and not giving up that seems to stand out for me. I've noticed they seem to have this extra gear in 3rd and 4th quarters where the smalls start buzzing and opposition can't keep up with them. We struggle on this aspect as well and might potentially be our undoing. They are amazing to watch, similar to Hawks.

It's an omen of sorts that McRae won a premiership in his second year as coach and Kingsley might do the same this year.

 

[irish]

Getting Carlton at home finals week 1 would be a good way to start September. Games from there probably a 50/50

unless its like round 1

 

[mpal6]

unless its like round 1

Well if we play like round 1 there is no point in trying to go deep in finals anyway.
We need our 9 game winning style back and real quick.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

We'll win it from here. Bookmark it.

 

[dlanod]

This year looks like a Giants flag to me. They've been answering and taking on all comers. While true that they've managed to sneak a win against Hawks at the last minute, it's their persistence and not giving up that seems to stand out for me. I've noticed they seem to have this extra gear in 3rd and 4th quarters where the smalls start buzzing and opposition can't keep up with them. We struggle on this aspect as well and might potentially be our undoing. They are amazing to watch, similar to Hawks.

It's an omen of sorts that McRae won a premiership in his second year as coach and Kingsley might do the same this year.

I've watched the Giants every week. They just haven't sold me that what they're doing is sustainable. The number of comebacks (Brisbane, Hawthorn, Carlton) or just holding on (Fremantle, Melbourne, Carlton again - that game was wild) in their win streak is crazy. Even the Suns game, which ended up being comfortable, didn't feel like it live because the Suns basically kicked themselves out of the game despite being a lot more even on the field.

 

[mpal6]

I've watched the Giants every week. They just haven't sold me that what they're doing is sustainable. The number of comebacks (Brisbane, Hawthorn, Carlton) or just holding on (Fremantle, Melbourne, Carlton again - that game was wild) in their win streak is crazy. Even the Suns game, which ended up being comfortable, didn't feel like it live because the Suns basically kicked themselves out of the game despite being a lot more even on the field.

Yep, that comeback aspect looks exactly like Pies last year to me. GWS are just riding the wave and believing the comeback is on, bang they kick a couple and find their run along the way.

We on the other hand look defeated the moment the lead starts crumbling. Not to mention our goalkicking woes and players struggling to stay motivated / focused throughout the game.

 

[RU_]

Actually think this ladder might play out in our favour, weirdly enough.

Carlton with significant injury woes in week 1. Geelong likely in week 2 at a neutral venue. Port in Adelaide week 3.

Hawks at the G. What a time to break the drought.




.. a lot of wishful thinking here.

 

[lionsrules]

This is not a post to say the lions are going to go all the way (because I doubt that can happen now) But with the crazy madness season that this has been it still would not surprise me if this narrative has still some playing out to do. With that in mind it wont surprise me if both grand finalists come from the 5-8 group.
based on inconsistent form over the last 10 weeks my list of most likely to least likely of the top 4 going out in straight sets is
Geelong
Port
Sydney
GWS

(I have Sydney v Geelong and Port v GWS 1st week hence that ranking)


from 5-8 (current ladder) the ones most likely NOT appearing in a prelim are ranked as:

Carlton
Hawks (think dogs will beat them first week)
Dogs
Brisbane

with those rankings as is My prelim predictions are:


Sydney V Dogs (friday night)
Giants V Lions (saturday twilight)

 

[dlanod]

Giants V Lions (saturday twilight)

Well that's a great way to ruin my weekend.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I've watched the Giants every week. They just haven't sold me that what they're doing is sustainable. The number of comebacks (Brisbane, Hawthorn, Carlton) or just holding on (Fremantle, Melbourne, Carlton again - that game was wild) in their win streak is crazy. Even the Suns game, which ended up being comfortable, didn't feel like it live because the Suns basically kicked themselves out of the game despite being a lot more even on the field.

Yes the Giants are weird. They are miles behind in all the premiership metrics. Basically if they win it all this year they will literally force Champion Data to rewrite their entire framework.

 

[Paul Mac]

Feels like we're pretty comfortably the weakest team in the 8

Weakest team? As in the worst side in the 8 or just weakest as in mentally and physically?
Only my opinion but I still think we are the most talented and dangerous list in the 8. Therefore, IMO i would nowhere near rank us as the weakest in the 8.
If somehow we can just get thinks to click for one month because it hasn't clicked all year. ( bar a game against St Kilda at Marvel but the saints were VFL level at best in that game), just one month of consistent buy in, straighter kicking, mentally locked in on our defensive structures, getting numbers around the footy when we desperately need a stoppage and not allowing opposition clearance, team orientated footy, we can maybe just maybe do it, on current form probably not but just one month of it that's all and who knows..

 

[martinson]

For us we need players fit and healthy especially Hipwood and Andrews . I can't see Payne being a factor after his layoff but just perchance he can turn up fit and well that would be a massive boost.

There's some possibility that we perk up for the finals after the week off and really kill it for a couple of weeks.

After that it's about maintaining a healthy list ,not getting stage fright and being able to sustain consistent 4 quarter efforts.

I'm hopeful without having much confidence. We're on a par with a few other teams so it's really a matter of who can turn it on on the day.