Finals predictions

[Dalions]

Catching up on some of the footy shows and some pretty damning records.

First is our record at the MCG in 5 of our last 6 games there.

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Second is our away record since we’ve consistently made finals since 2019

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To go with our home record of 4 wins and 4 losses.

And we’re expecting to go one home win and 3 away wins when we’ve only one once away in the finals and also win at the MCG where our recent record is even worse.

Hell of an ask and completely squandered a golden opportunity all due to our past games.

Records are there to be broken.

 

[Squizz89]

The one metric, which none of us will know on here perhaps until this Saturday night, is how the last 2 weeks have effected the group mentally.

They would know they’ve pissed up against the wall a top 2/4 spot largely off the back of their own doing and with that they would also know that it has got a lot harder if we want to make it back there on GF day.

Now that can either spur the group on to prove people wrong, or have the opposite effect and completely flatten the group and it could see them just let the season just peter out.

This is the unknown for me. We have the talent. Do we have it between the ears now and the motivation to kick again after we’ve already had to do it once this year just to get back to the finals?

 

[Dalions]

The one metric, which none of us will know on here perhaps until this Saturday night, is how the last 2 weeks have effected the group mentally.

They would know they’ve pissed up against the wall a top 2/4 spot largely of their own doing and with that they would also know that it has got a lot harder if we want to make it back there on GF day.

Now that can either spur the group on to prove people wrong, or have the opposite effect and completely flatten the group and it could see them just let the season just peter out.

This is the unknown for me. We have the talent. Do we have it between the ears now and the motivation to kick again after we’ve already had to do it once this year just to get back to the finals?

I reckon 90-95% wrote us off after round 7 and the boys got themselves back into contention by pure guts and determination and talent and by fixing up the poor goal kicking.

We have now had 2 poor goal kicking weeks similar to the start of the year and 90-95% have written us off again.

Time will tell how we respond, but I will back them in for now.
And personally think our best football is as good as anyone’s.

 

[vic_LION]

The pre finals bye can’t come soon enough for us. After a long winning streak we’re looking tired - hard to maintain that for too long. There’s a lot of experience now coming into finals with this group, I reckon we’ll see a newly energised team coming into finals in a couple of weeks, and from there anything can happen.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I agree. I get that sports fandom can lean towards the negative (at the end of the day the person we feel most sorry for when we lose is ourselves) but we still have a great shot here. The difference between 4th and 5th is basically one more away game, and only if we would have won week 1 to Sydney - otherwise it's instead of away, home, away, neutral we will get home, away, away, neutral. And we're probably now on the better side of the draw if results go as expected.

Still a red hot chance for mine and accuracy is some skill but a lot of luck - Champion Data often point to the fact it evens out over time. I'd have us favourites for all of Blues at home, Geelong at G (arguably neutral), Port away (probably no Houston too) and then a 50/50 GF.

To be clear, I don't any real science around my claim. It just feels like it's the kind of thing that is likely to happen in this season.

 

[Dalions]

I want to be proven wrong but I don't think we do; I think the loss to the Giants knocked any hope they had, it all just became too hard for them.

Even with a win or a convincing win against Essendon won't change my mind. Had we beaten Collingwood, I would have been hopeful, but that loss last Saturday was so diabolically bad that they've no hope now. Our finals record since 2019 says as much.

Its all well and good for Lachie and Harris to group them in the middle last week and be saying things like we can't let this happen again and everything else, but when one of those finals away games is in the heat battle and become all too hard, do you really reckon anyone will remember Lachie and Harris little talk in the middle of the MCG?

It may well have been a loss that shouldn’t have happened on the weekend but it wasn’t a Grand Final.
So emotionally there is no reason why they can’t bounce back.
We are still in with a chance.

 

[M Malice]

 

[Dalions]

I am

 

[morsie]

The one metric, which none of us will know on here perhaps until this Saturday night, is how the last 2 weeks have effected the group mentally.

They would know they’ve pissed up against the wall a top 2/4 spot largely off the back of their own doing and with that they would also know that it has got a lot harder if we want to make it back there on GF day.

Now that can either spur the group on to prove people wrong, or have the opposite effect and completely flatten the group and it could see them just let the season just peter out.

This is the unknown for me. We have the talent. Do we have it between the ears now and the motivation to kick again after we’ve already had to do it once this year just to get back to the finals?

We will get a pretty good idea this week against Essendon.We should dominate this game.If not we are not in the frame of mind to do any damage in teh finals.

 

[martinson]

I think it all gets back to the health of our list.

Mental scars aren't an issue if you can get on a roll. It's more that we've failed in pressure situations probably more than we should have so is that because we're not quite good enough and/or don't handle those situations particularly well ? If it's the former then we're not quite good enough, if it's the latter then that's the mental battle win have to win ,which is doable.

I'm more concerned with whether we're a bit tired and spent with too many injured . Any update on Berry ? He's crucial.

 

[luthor]

We will get a pretty good idea this week against Essendon.We should dominate this game.If not we are not in the frame of mind to do any damage in teh finals.

I don't care about domination.

Just kick even reasonably straight and get the win

Then we will have two weeks to get our minds (and bodies) in shape

 

[RU_]

I just want to beat another club than Melbourne at the G in the last 11 years!!

How bad are Melbourne though to lose to us not once, but twice at the G!

 

[M Malice]

I think it all gets back to the health of our list.

Mental scars aren't an issue if you can get on a roll. It's more that we've failed in pressure situations probably more than we should have so is that because we're not quite good enough and/or don't handle those situations particularly well ? If it's the former then we're not quite good enough, if it's the latter then that's the mental battle win have to win ,which is doable.

I'm more concerned with whether we're a bit tired and spent with too many injured . Any update on Berry ? He's crucial.

On the bolded, that could be it, a lot of people say we have the best team "on paper" in the AFL but maybe it is as simple as we aren't the best, maybe we are overachievers with the list we have. The health of your list come September is a massive factor in who the eventual Premiers are.

Give Berry the extra week off, he should then be 100% for the first final.

 

[braddsey]

On the bolded, that could be it, a lot of people say we have the best team "on paper" in the AFL but maybe it is as simple as we aren't the best, maybe we are overachievers with the list we have. The health of your list come September is a massive factor in who the eventual Premiers are.

Give Berry the extra week off, he should then be 100% for the first final.

The season's not over yet so we can still go forward to prove everyone we are the best list when we get it all together.

That said, I think this season again shows how important it is to bank wins early. It's got to be much easier to get through the backend of the season without every match having incredible meaning to it. Sydney are obviously the poster-club for this, but also Geelong. Both clubs had a strong start, they were able to have a mid-late season slump, and then stabilise. Sydney are still the best team in it on their day, Geelong are not.
We've been playing catchup the entire second half the season and did an amazing job... but perhaps the mental battle to stay up did become too much. Like when a team chases all day, finally gets a point in front and relaxes a bit "phew, we made it" and then goes on to lose the match.

I think we should still expect to make a PF. The question then becomes if we've had 2 bruising battles to get there, are we capable coming up against a team that has played 1 game in 3 weeks.
or... does Fagan's claim from early attempts to reach a GF come true... teams that play 1 game in 3 weeks... do they lose a little bit of form against other good teams? we can only hope so!

 

[Sproj]

I reckon we're primed. If we can avoid Hawthorn until the GF, we can make it back there. I still think we will win it.

 

[braddsey]

I reckon we're primed. If we can avoid Hawthorn until the GF, we can make it back there. I still think we will win it.

Get through Essendon without further injury.
Hope like hell Payne and Hipwood come back in for the finals and find form quickly, we'll be a much better proposition!

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

Get through Essendon without further injury.
Hope like hell Payne and Hipwood come back in for the finals and find form quickly, we'll be a much better proposition!

I'd add Bruce & potentially Dev in finals.

 

[braddsey]

I'd add Bruce & potentially Dev in finals.

Definitely Bruce. We know Dev is a competitor, but there's got to be a reason he hasn't been selected all season.

Will be interesting to see how Morris holds up through 4 weeks. He's been great for a first year player, but makes me a little nervous if he can sustain through a finals campaign.

 

[Gadzorks]

Are you really going to take much from this game though.

I personally think the damage is already done and nothing from this game will change my mind.

Perhaps it might if we won our home final and then the next away game and we are in good shape but geez thats a lot of water to go under the bridge if we even get the far down.

This year had shown we can do anything from lose badly. Win majestically, be accurate, be inaccurate, control the game, be controlled etc. Basically anything goes.

Don't think we can take anything from any game, just have to accept that every game is independent of the last one.

Bit like Joe's kicking, can and is often both brilliant and awful in the same game.

I think going out in the first elimination is just a likely as winning the grand final. Only one thing is certain, the last game and the final series are going to be tough on supporter nerves.

 

[Sproj]

Get through Essendon without further injury.
Hope like hell Payne and Hipwood come back in for the finals and find form quickly, we'll be a much better proposition!

If Payne and Hippy are fit, massive bonus but the reality is, it is all on the goal kicking accuracy. If we can somehow fix that, we win it all. And that is the biggest of all ifs unfortunately.

 

[Ceebee]

Definitely Bruce. We know Dev is a competitor, but there's got to be a reason he hasn't been selected all season.

Will be interesting to see how Morris holds up through 4 weeks. He's been great for a first year player, but makes me a little nervous if he can sustain through a finals campaign.

Be asking a lot of him , going to be a great player for us long term though .

 

[On the quiet]

I reckon 90-95% wrote us off after round 7 and the boys got themselves back into contention by pure guts and determination and talent and by fixing up the poor goal kicking.

We have now had 2 poor goal kicking weeks similar to the start of the year and 90-95% have written us off again.

Time will tell how we respond, but I will back them in for now.
And personally think our best football is as good as anyone’s.

I too think our best is right up there, but we rarely sustain it for 4Q's, we are just not consistent enough, and some of our goal kicking...well it has been said by others.

Our form may have been a bit misleading, From R8 to R21 (bye in R12) we played 13 games and 9 were against teams currently out of the top 8. We had a comfortable win against the Dogs and flogged Port back in June, but it's now the end of August, so don't believe that form is relevant.

After the R7 loss to GWS, I had Lions not making the 8 or just sneaking in 7th or 8th so have done better than I thought. As mentioned by Browny last night, it is much harder for an interstate team to win it from the bottom 8, unlike a Melbourne team which may have a couple of Melbourne finals.

 

[On the quiet]

Get through Essendon without further injury.
Hope like hell Payne and Hipwood come back in for the finals and find form quickly, we'll be a much better proposition!

if any doubt on Berry, rest him, especially with the Bye the following week.

 

[Dalions]

I too think our best is right up there, but we rarely sustain it for 4Q's, we are just not consistent enough, and some of our goal kicking...well it has been said by others.

Our form may have been a bit misleading, From R8 to R21 (bye in R12) we played 13 games and 9 were against teams currently out of the top 8. We had a comfortable win against the Dogs and flogged Port back in June, but it's now the end of August, so don't believe that form is relevant.

After the R7 loss to GWS, I had Lions not making the 8 or just sneaking in 7th or 8th so have done better than I thought. As mentioned by Browny last night, it is much harder for an interstate team to win it from the bottom 8, unlike a Melbourne team which may have a couple of Melbourne finals.

After all the time playing finals we still don’t know how to close out games and that will always be our biggest concern as fans especially in Finals.
What they do well is get themselves into winning positions.
But closing it out, that’s another thing entirely.

 

[Section 5]

After all the time playing finals we still don’t know how to close out games and that will always be our biggest concern as fans especially in Finals.
What they do well is get themselves into winning positions.
But closing it out, that’s another thing entirely.

I think we tend to try and shut down game before we should.
Not talking about just in the last quarter.
We tend to do this at varying times of a game when we are the dominant team