Finals predictions

[M Malice]

Looks like a lock now.

EF- Bulldogs v Hawks
QF- Swans v Giants
QF Port v Cats
__________________

EF- Lions v Blues or Dockers

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

Looking like we’ll most likely be travelling to Syndey week 2 if we win our EF

Question is who would we rather play.

Swans at the SCG?
or
GWS at Giants Stadium?

 

[M Malice]

Looking like we’ll most likely be travelling to Syndey week 2 if we win our EF

We are on the tougher side of the draw, que sara sara.

I would back the winner of Hawks v Bulldogs to beat loser of Port v Cats.

 

[M Malice]

Question is who would we rather play.

Swans at the SCG?
or
GWS at Giants Stadium?

Swans for me.

 

[FFB1]

So it's either Blews or Fremantle.

 

[Perrip]

Looks like a lock now.

EF- Bulldogs v Hawks
QF- Swans v Giants
QF Port v Cats
__________________

EF- Lions v Blues or Dockers

If Freo win by 23+ points, it'll be Cats v Port @ the 'G.

 

[vic_LION]

We are on the tougher side of the draw, que sara sara.

I would back the winner of Hawks v Bulldogs to beat loser of Port v Cats.

Not entirely sure. Not playing bulldogs or hawks week 1, semi will be hard, but then port or cats in prelim isn’t bad

 

[lionsrules]

If Freo win by 23+ points, it'll be Cats v Port @ the 'G.

If freo pump port …. Port can go
To 4th

 

[braddsey]

Question is who would we rather play.

Swans at the SCG?
or
GWS at Giants Stadium?

I’d prefer GWS. Our loss 2 weeks ago was self-inflicted. Our loss earlier in the season was an odd one, but i’m putting it at least partially down to playing in a hurricane against Geelong 5 days earlier - we were well and truly in it at half time.
Sydney at SCG are a seriously tough team if fully back in form.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

I’d prefer GWS. Our loss 2 weeks ago was self-inflicted. Our loss earlier in the season was an odd one, but i’m putting it at least partially down to playing in a hurricane against Geelong 5 days earlier - we were well and truly in it at half time.
Sydney at SCG are a seriously tough team if fully back in form.

I think 3rd time will be the charm against the Giants this year if we'll have another crack at them. We barely got over the line against a depleted cooked Sydney at the Gabba several weeks ago.

 

[braddsey]

my hope for the remainder of the day - Carlton go down, Freo get beaten in a thriller. Make Carlton feel like they’re imposters in the finals.

 

[Perrip]

Week 1 finals fixture will be released at 8am tomorrow according to Fox.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

The good thing if we play Freo is that they don't have a huge supporter base in Queensland compared to Carlton.

 

[Dalions]

I think 3rd time will be the charm against the Giants this year if we'll have another crack at them. We barely got over the line against a depleted cooked Sydney at the Gabba several weeks ago.

Worked for Collingwood against us last year.

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

The Live Ladders site has had a bit of fun with the "Next Week" column for those teams not making the finals

Live Ladders by Ranking Software

Live AFL Ladders

www.liveladders.com

 

[jumbojet]

Headlines. “Saints defeat Carlton and the ump’s”

 

[Grasshopper17]

If Geelong finish 2nd, they will have to play on Thursday/Friday, same as Hawthorn/Bulldogs.

So if we were to play Freo, this would have to be a strong chance of being a day game on Saturday, to give Freo a chance to fly home the same day.

Still a bit to play out today tho first.

As forecast.

 

[braddsey]

my hope for the remainder of the day - Carlton go down, Freo get beaten in a thriller. Make Carlton feel like they’re imposters in the finals.

I picked the wrong thriller, but same result!
Will be an interesting evening on the Carlton boards…

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

 

[Tom14]

Power Ranking the finalists

Thought I'd try to take an unbiased look at each finalist, giving weight to how good I think a team is, their recent form, their likely draw, etc. I've left us out as I don't think I can be unbiased but if I had to pick I'd slide us in at 3 or 4.

This is a super weird year - a lot of advanced models have the top 3 ranked teams being the ones that finished 5, 6 and 7 on the ladder with the Swans' recent drop off in form.



1. Sydney
Of the top 4, Sydney is the only team that I can back in as having the quality of a traditional premier, but I'm basing it on the first half of the season. If they turn up like they did against port, then they'll squander it.

I'm putting my faith in teams not being able to control the ball as much against them as they have in the back half of the year. In all their losses except against the dogs, they conceded over 100 uncontested marks. Uncontested mark numbers drastically drop in finals as the game becomes more contested and in chaos, and I think that will help them. They have to calm down on the kamikazee ball movement into the corridor and learn to just take profit if their opponent is stacking it against them.

A lot rests on papley coming back fit becuase otherwise that forward line is sluggish, and the defence isn't great either. Not a confident pick for #1, but I wasn't going to pick a team in the bottom half of the 8 so Swans were the best option.

2. Bulldogs

Totally weird to have a team at 2 when they had to win their final game to get into the 8 right? Why pick a team that is playing a 'home' final at their opponent's home ground?

But it is a bizarre year and I put my faith in Bont, those forwards, and the best defence in the comp in the second half of the season. If they'd found a way to get into 4th, they'd be my easy #1 seed. As it is, they have the toughest elimination final matchup but if they get through it, look out.

Incidentally - the Dogs missing top 4 again means that the last team that is a primary docklands/etihad/marvel tenant to make top 4 remains the Saints in 2010. Its been 14 years since one of those teams made top 4, and that probably says quite a bit about how poor the HGA is for marvel tenants.

3. GWS

GWS is winning on pure talent and voodo goalkicking magic. Their opponents have on several occasions managed to miss so badly there has twice been a 60 point expected score turnaround.

The expected score ladder has them 13th:



Why are they 3 over Port, Geelong and the Hawks? I'm backing talent again. They have gamebreaking players, the best defender in the competition, and the form key forward in the game. Their gamestyle is a tough matchup for a lot of teams, and the small forwards are quick, dangerous, and defensively sound.

My head is telling me their run has to come to an end and some point. The sinking feeling in my gut tells me they scrape through a bunch of finals in the same way they have all year.

4. Port

I already made my feelings on Port's performance this year clear in the non-lions thread (spoiler, I'd rename them the Port Fraudelaide Power). They finished second on the back of going 6-1 in games decided by 12 points or less and by having an extra home game compared to all of the finalists.

Why are they ahead of the Hawks? Draw - if they beat Geelong, who are on paper the weakest finalist being held together by Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

33

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

, Dangerfield's aging soft tissues and the incredible coaching of Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

49

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

, then Port are into a prelim. Hawthorn has to beat the Dogs.

Recipe is simple for the Power - win clearances heavily so their weaker backline is protected, and they get good looks forward and can set up the high press and lock it in their forward half. JHF, Rozee and Butters are great, and they have a good matchup against Sydney having beaten them the last 8 times they've played.

But I'm predicted a prelim loss, barring Carlton somehow winning through to face them.

5. Hawks

Clearly the form team of the back half of the year. THey play an incredible brand of footy, and are exciting and young. They are 5 because they face the dogs first up, aren't in the top 4, and I think that youth/lack of experience can be a disadvantage. If they get going look out though.

There's also a bit of cope/hope in this ranking, because how disgusting would it be if the hawks had a deep finals run after not sucking for nearly long enough.

6. Cats

Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

49

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

is a genius. Clearly my #1 coach in the competition. That they've managed to win enough games to get top 4 without a functional midfield is amazing, and what he did to get Stewart out of his mid-year form slump was super impressive. I don't expect them to be able to carry it on, but who knows, maybe he outcoaches Ken and then they have an MCG prelim.

7. Carlton

The formline is brutal leading into finals. The injury list is long. They finished 5th in points against. Really, we shouldn't be losing to them but can we be trusted?

 

[martinson]

Power Ranking the finalists

Thought I'd try to take an unbiased look at each finalist, giving weight to how good I think a team is, their recent form, their likely draw, etc. I've left us out as I don't think I can be unbiased but if I had to pick I'd slide us in at 3 or 4.

This is a super weird year - a lot of advanced models have the top 3 ranked teams being the ones that finished 5, 6 and 7 on the ladder with the Swans' recent drop off in form.



1. Sydney
Of the top 4, Sydney is the only team that I can back in as having the quality of a traditional premier, but I'm basing it on the first half of the season. If they turn up like they did against port, then they'll squander it.

I'm putting my faith in teams not being able to control the ball as much against them as they have in the back half of the year. In all their losses except against the dogs, they conceded over 100 uncontested marks. Uncontested mark numbers drastically drop in finals as the game becomes more contested and in chaos, and I think that will help them. They have to calm down on the kamikazee ball movement into the corridor and learn to just take profit if their opponent is stacking it against them.

A lot rests on papley coming back fit becuase otherwise that forward line is sluggish, and the defence isn't great either. Not a confident pick for #1, but I wasn't going to pick a team in the bottom half of the 8 so Swans were the best option.

2. Bulldogs

Totally weird to have a team at 2 when they had to win their final game to get into the 8 right? Why pick a team that is playing a 'home' final at their opponent's home ground?

But it is a bizarre year and I put my faith in Bont, those forwards, and the best defence in the comp in the second half of the season. If they'd found a way to get into 4th, they'd be my easy #1 seed. As it is, they have the toughest elimination final matchup but if they get through it, look out.

Incidentally - the Dogs missing top 4 again means that the last team that is a primary docklands/etihad/marvel tenant to make top 4 remains the Saints in 2010. Its been 14 years since one of those teams made top 4, and that probably says quite a bit about how poor the HGA is for marvel tenants.

3. GWS

GWS is winning on pure talent and voodo goalkicking magic. Their opponents have on several occasions managed to miss so badly there has twice been a 60 point expected score turnaround.

The expected score ladder has them 13th:



Why are they 3 over Port, Geelong and the Hawks? I'm backing talent again. They have gamebreaking players, the best defender in the competition, and the form key forward in the game. Their gamestyle is a tough matchup for a lot of teams, and the small forwards are quick, dangerous, and defensively sound.

My head is telling me their run has to come to an end and some point. The sinking feeling in my gut tells me they scrape through a bunch of finals in the same way they have all year.

4. Port

I already made my feelings on Port's performance this year clear in the non-lions thread (spoiler, I'd rename them the Port Fraudelaide Power). They finished second on the back of going 6-1 in games decided by 12 points or less and by having an extra home game compared to all of the finalists.

Why are they ahead of the Hawks? Draw - if they beat Geelong, who are on paper the weakest finalist being held together by Jeremy Cameron, Dangerfield's aging soft tissues and the incredible coaching of Chris Scott, then Port are into a prelim. Hawthorn has to beat the Dogs.

Recipe is simple for the Power - win clearances heavily so their weaker backline is protected, and they get good looks forward and can set up the high press and lock it in their forward half. JHF, Rozee and Butters are great, and they have a good matchup against Sydney having beaten them the last 8 times they've played.

But I'm predicted a prelim loss, barring Carlton somehow winning through to face them.

5. Hawks

Clearly the form team of the back half of the year. THey play an incredible brand of footy, and are exciting and young. They are 5 because they face the dogs first up, aren't in the top 4, and I think that youth/lack of experience can be a disadvantage. If they get going look out though.

There's also a bit of cope/hope in this ranking, because how disgusting would it be if the hawks had a deep finals run after not sucking for nearly long enough.

6. Cats

Chris Scott is a genius. Clearly my #1 coach in the competition. That they've managed to win enough games to get top 4 without a functional midfield is amazing, and what he did to get Stewart out of his mid-year form slump was super impressive. I don't expect them to be able to carry it on, but who knows, maybe he outcoaches Ken and then they have an MCG prelim.

7. Carlton

The formline is brutal leading into finals. The injury list is long. They finished 5th in points against. Really, we shouldn't be losing to them but can we be trusted?

Some very thoughtful observations there Tom.

What it does illustrate is that it's wide open.

We face on paper and form the worst finalist in Carlton at home so there's no excuses for us and then we reassess after the first week.

 

[Tom14]

Some very thoughtful observations there Tom.

What it does illustrate is that it's wide open.

We face on paper and form the worst finalist in Carlton at home so there's no excuses for us and then we reassess after the first week.

My head says we right the ship and win, and then really push whoever we face in the semi final. If we get through to cats or port after having won 2 finals, I'll feel pretty happy with our effort and also quietly confident about our ability to win away.

Heart/gut isn't convinced.

 

[martinson]

My head says we right the ship and win, and then really push whoever we face in the semi final. If we get through to cats or port after having won 2 finals, I'll feel pretty happy with our effort and also quietly confident about our ability to win away.

Heart/gut isn't convinced.

Well we can talk all we like about all we could do but my heart/gut says that if we make a prelim that'll be about it.

The key is what sort of physical condition we'll be in if we get to face a refreshed Prelim .finalist away.

The good thing is we know we can beat any of them on our day but I wouldn't be overly confident against GWS or Sydney in Sydney if we get over Carlton. That'd be a tough match.

 

[mpal6]

Well we can talk all we like about all we could do but my heart/gut says that if we make a prelim that'll be about it.

The key is what sort of physical condition we'll be in if we get to face a refreshed Prelim .finalist away.

The good thing is we know we can beat any of them on our day but I wouldn't be overly confident against GWS or Sydney in Sydney if we get over Carlton. That'd be a tough match.

I'm not fussed with playing either but I'd prefer playing Sydney. Their form isn't as hot as earlier this season and they'll give us some good looks going our way. Sometimes I feel they have equal amount of front runners / downhill skiiers like ours so it'll be a good chance for us.

 

[Dalions]

I'm not fussed with playing either but I'd prefer playing Sydney. Their form isn't as hot as earlier this season and they'll give us some good looks going our way. Sometimes I feel they have equal amount of front runners / downhill skiiers like ours so it'll be a good chance for us.

I would personally prefer to meet Sydney in a Grand Final rather than week 2.
We would get more confidence in beating GWS, moving forward.
If we have Payne back, there will be no ring-a-rosie and whoever Hogan wants to play on out of those 2 we give him.
And just wear him like a glove.