Prediction Finals Scenarios

[magpiemaniac44]

Thought we should start a thread discussing finals scenarios for this season, where we could finish, if we will even make finals and if we make finals who our opposition could be.

We sit 6 points ahead of 8th but of the teams 8th to 12th have a game in hand.
One win will likely get us to finals, but I think we’d want to avoid 8th as that would likely mean we play West Coast or Richmond. 2 wins of our remaining three will definitely see us safe from 8th and will likely mean 6th vs 7th elimination final.

We should beat Gold Coast but who knows with Brisbane and Port games.

The draw we have will come into our favour as teams like Melbourne, Bulldogs and GWS now have to win 2 more games than us to jump us.

 

[gouki88]

I actually think we could get up on Brisbane. They beat St Kilda by 2 and North by 1. Their woeful goal-kicking combined with our rock-solid defence should give us a red hot chance. I would also love to see the Pig tag Neale.

I'd love to come up against the Saints or the Dogs in the finals. Just think that we'll have the edge on them with JDG, Sidebottom, Howe, Treloar and Sier back with Kelly also looking a chance. Those are huge ins

 

[mikel3030]

Don't rate Brisbane at all, they go to water when they play a decent opposition. Did a ladder predictor and if Richmond or West Coast stumble we can snare a top 4 spot if we keep winning, West Coast have a tricky draw and will drop the bottom lip in the hub again, if they lose 2 of Essendon (no Kennedy), Bulldogs and Saints then we steal their spot. Regardless we fear no one above us, we made Geelong and Richmond look second rate at the start of the season and West Coast away from Perth are beatable.

 

[mikel3030]

oh and Port are squibs who cant handle pressure

Don't rate Brisbane at all, they go to water when they play a decent opposition. Did a ladder predictor and if Richmond or West Coast stumble we can snare a top 4 spot if we keep winning, West Coast have a tricky draw and will drop the bottom lip in the hub again, if they lose 2 of Essendon (no Kennedy), Bulldogs and Saints then we steal their spot. Regardless we fear no one above us, we made Geelong and Richmond look second rate at the start of the season and West Coast away from Perth are beatable.

 

[chop_me]

I actually think we could get up on Brisbane. They beat St Kilda by 2 and North by 1. Their woeful goal-kicking combined with our rock-solid defence should give us a red hot chance. I would also love to see the Pig tag Neale.

I'd love to come up against the Saints or the Dogs in the finals. Just think that we'll have the edge on them with JDG, Sidebottom, Howe, Treloar and Sier back with Kelly also looking a chance. Those are huge ins

Is Howe coming back?


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[Harry O]

If we finish 5th or 6th we get to choose the venue. Assume it will be the Gabba

 

[stormskye]

Haven’t looked at the numbers but pretty sure all the teams competing with us are playing each other at some point, Saints, melb and gws so that should help us out maybe

 

[Chrispiesssss]

made a very very conservative prediction last night

 

[legendstatus]

Cats v Pies, just the way I like it


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[magpiemaniac44]

Don't rate Brisbane at all, they go to water when they play a decent opposition. Did a ladder predictor and if Richmond or West Coast stumble we can snare a top 4 spot if we keep winning, West Coast have a tricky draw and will drop the bottom lip in the hub again, if they lose 2 of Essendon (no Kennedy), Bulldogs and Saints then we steal their spot. Regardless we fear no one above us, we made Geelong and Richmond look second rate at the start of the season and West Coast away from Perth are beatable.

Yep Brisbane are definitely beatable and Port away from home are as well. (They could maybe have locked up top by then if we beat Brisbane). I could see us going 3-0 or 1-2. If we lose to the suns, we could still make finals but I think that would suck the life out of the group.

 

[mikel3030]

Yep Brisbane are definitely beatable and Port away from home are as well. (They could maybe have locked up top by then if we beat Brisbane). I could see us going 3-0 or 1-2. If we lose to the suns, we could still make finals but I think that would suck the life out of the group.

not losing to the Goldy- too much class and experience on every line. they will get a lesson.

 

[stormskye]

Just used Ladder predictor, geeze if we only win one of the last 3 games, we may very likely drop out. melb,gws, Saints, dogs all have very winnable games. It’s going to be tight.

 

[Finn Jim]

Finn Jim's long prediction post:

The win today puts the pies on 34 points. Mathematically we can no longer finish worse than 14th, as Hawthorn and below lack the games to catch us.
Team by team, behind us:

The Pretenders:
Freo, 20pts, games remaining: Richmond, Melbourne, North, Bulldogs. Richmond should dispatch them, as should Melbourne and the Bulldogs. I see them going at best 2 for 4 and ending on 28 pts. No threat.

Gold Coast: 22 points, Brisbane, PIES, Hawthorne. If they win out they tie us on 34 points. Utterly destroyed north today and hungry for first finals in club history. If a team is going to make a surprise run it's this bunch, but they only threaten US on percentage, and they are in too deep of a hole.

Carlton: 24pts, GWS, Adelaide, Brisbane: they will lose to GWS, implode, be Adelaide's only win of the season, and lose to Brisbane in a game they don't care about. No in seriousness, if they lose to GWS (and I expect them to) then they max out at 32 points.

Essendon: 26pts, WCE, GEE, Port, Melbourne. Do you see the Bombers getting 2+ wins out of these games? I see at most 2, but not the +. We have them on % right now too.

The Contenders:
Bulldogs: 28 pts, WCE, Hawthorn, Freo. I could see the dogs beating Hawks and Dockers, and almost expect them to to end on 36pts.

GWS 28pts, Carlton, Adelaide, Melbourne, St Kilda. I see them ending at either 36 or 40 points from these games. Good news is their joy comes at the expense of two other contenders.

Melbourne: 28pts, Syd, Freo, GWS, Bombers: They should be a lock to 36 points unless Sydney or Freo pull off a miracle.

St. Kilda: 32pts, Hawthorn, WCE, GWS: I give them Hawthorn, take west coast, toss up the giants. 36 or 40 points

IN SUMMARY:

If the pies go 0/3 in these last 3 games, it is very possible, I think likely, that we miss finals. I think 8th will be decided on % at 36 points. A win and 38 points should be enough, but not necessarily if results go exactly against us.

We control our destiny and in my opinion, if we can't win one of these games we don't deserve finals anyway. Win a single game and we are 90% in. Let's make it easy on ourselves and run the table?

 

[gouki88]

Just used Ladder predictor, geeze if we only win one of the last 3 games, we may very likely drop out. melb,gws, Saints, dogs all have very winnable games. It’s going to be tight.

I'd be very surprised given how unreliable the form of Melb, GWS and Footscray have

 

[magpies42]

I’m comfortable playing anybody but West Coast, I think they are the bench mark. I hope to god the grand final is in Queensland for that reason.

We are in good form, we have a third of our 22 missing...once some polish comes back into the side we’ll be cherry ripe come finals. I think we need to rest and manage our stars over the next month, any loses to injury now and you’d think that’s the season gone!

Cox’s performance last night really gave me confidence, he wasn’t outstanding but he is trending in the right direction. That was the missing piece. We just need to improve our ball movement, I thought that was improved last night also.

 

[gouki88]

I’m comfortable playing anybody but West Coast, I think they are the bench mark. I hope to god the grand final is in Queensland for that reason.

We are in good form, we have a third of our 22 missing...once some polish comes back into the side we’ll be cherry ripe come finals. I think we need to rest and manage our stars over the next month, any loses to injury now and you’d think that’s the season gone!

Cox’s performance last night really gave me confidence, he wasn’t outstanding but he is trending in the right direction. That was the missing piece. We just need to improve our ball movement, I thought that was improved last night also.

West Coast are a real problem team. Pillars at every key position spot and good smalls. I would love to see us get them fully healthy though

 

[Markfs]

progress report.... we might make finals, we might not. If we get there, we might win some. It depends on form.

 

[stormskye]

West Coast are a real problem team. Pillars at every key position spot and good smalls. I would love to see us get them fully healthy though

If we make finals they are the one team I’d want to avoid at all costs, and would hope they get knocked out!

 

[gouki88]

If we make finals they are the one team I’d want to avoid at all costs, and would hope they get knocked out!

Gotta pray that if we do meet them it's in QLD!

 

[stormskye]

Gotta pray that if we do meet them it's in QLD!

Good point

 

[unplugged]

Think they should avoid home finals at all costs this year. Brisbane at Metricon, Port not at AO, WCE not at Optus Stadium, etc.

Of course the potential gatekeepings will make that irresistible for the AFL.

 

[stormskye]

Think they should avoid home finals at all costs this year. Brisbane at Metricon, Port not at AO, WCE not at Optus Stadium, etc.

Of course the potential gatekeepings will make that irresistible for the AFL.

I don’t think Bris, port eagles etc need/deserve a reward of a home final, given they’ve already been gifted finals, that’s enough! Bris left Queensland twice, once in round one and lost to hawks in melb, and in round 6 flogged by Geelong in syd! Def do not deserve a home final, been gifted a second chance. I agree all finals should be neutral.

 

[stormskye]

From afl site
6. Collingwood
34 points (eight wins, one draw, five losses), 111.7 per cent
Things look pretty good for Collingwood. Its victory over Carlton on Sunday will ensure one more win should virtually guarantee finals footy. It will perhaps make coach Nathan Buckley sleep a little easier at night, given his side still has to play the first-placed Port Adelaide and the third-placed Brisbane. With troops still to return, including important trio Steele Sidebottom, Jeremy Howe and Jordan De Goey, just making it to the post-season is the priority. Once those key names return, who knows how far Collingwood could progress? - Riley Beveridge

imortant trio? Forgetting someone Riley?

 

[manicmagpie]

If we only win 1 more game then we need two of St Kilda, Melbourne, GWS or Carlton to fail to reach 40 points. Not concerned about the Bulldogs or Essendon getting there.

St Kilda - 32 points (Haw, WC, GWS)
Melbourne - 28 points (Syd, Freo, GWS, Ess)
GWS - 28 points (Carl, Adel, Melb, StK)
Carlton - 24 points (GWS, Syd, Adel, Bris)

GWS is the key as they play the other 3 teams. If we could rely on Brisbane to beat Carlton in Round 18 then it would be best if Carlton beat GWS in a few days time. That would then make it very improbable for us to miss if we win 1 more game.

Of course we could take all of this out of the equation by beating Brisbane on Friday.

 

[Maggie5]

If we only win 1 more game then we need two of St Kilda, Melbourne, GWS or Carlton to fail to reach 40 points. Not concerned about the Bulldogs or Essendon getting there.

St Kilda - 32 points (Haw, WC, GWS)
Melbourne - 28 points (Syd, Freo, GWS, Ess)
GWS - 28 points (Carl, Adel, Melb, StK)
Carlton - 24 points (GWS, Syd, Adel, Bris)

GWS is the key as they play the other 3 teams. If we could rely on Brisbane to beat Carlton in Round 18 then it would be best if Carlton beat GWS in a few days time. That would then make it very improbable for us to miss if we win 1 more game.

Of course we could take all of this out of the equation by beating Brisbane on Friday.

Do Essendon and Melbourne still have a game in hand?