Unofficial Preview Finals Week 1 - 2nd Qualifying Final - Geelong VS Fremantle @ Simonds Stadium

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Mar 2, 2010
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Well done to mattis117 for organising this weeks preview thread, going to be an interesting one for the Qualifying Final against the Cats with a big spotlight on this game.

All those authors involved post your work in this thread and I will create a link to it from the headings below as the content will be too large for one post.

Introduction - Frigate

Head to Head between the two clubs - Beeawwb SP

Rivalry between the two clubs - Wizard

Freo Backs & Cats Forwards - caterina

Midfields (Freo & Cats) - Kaney321

Freo Forwards & Cats Backs - go_the_dockers

Form guide - estibador

Likely changes leading into the match, including WAFL, VFL potential inclusions - stormee

Stats that everyone loves - Seppo

Coaches - mattis117

Depth - samcoppo11

Fremantle Rhapsody - Arcassius

Conclusion and predictions - Moo
 

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Damn Ross sounded intense in his 6PR interview. I'm so spewing i will be on site for this game. Although I'll probably just hang around the radio and watch the replay of us winning when I get home :)

I dreamt we won by 13 points but we were down by 46 at half time. We kicked 10 goals to none in the 3rd and they only kicked a behind. After that we went goal for goal and held on for the win.
 
The Rivalry:

It’s now one of the hottest rivalries in Australian Football, has been for a few years now.

But why?

Firs you have to look back in time 1995 when Fremantle accounted for last years "bridesmaids" for their first ever AFL win on home turf. Were the Cats just grumpy at WA after 92 & 94 or did discard Cat Andrew Wills upset that Pussy Cats?

Probably not as the rivalry died off again until 2005 when now Cats public enemy #2 Ryan Crowley debuted at sleepy hollow, a 9 point win and a 3 goal effort from the new villain certainly didn’t help.

Things really hotted up in 2008 though when Dean Solomon decided to play a game of tomato smashing utilising Cameron Lings face at Skilled Stadium, this was just months after a Geelong defender pushed the post into the way of a Matthew Pavlich goal on ANZAC Day.

Its fair to say Solly won the day, but the war was just beginning.



Are the Cats just grumpy because of Crowley though? He liked to beat up on their golden boy and Daddys little man.



Or finally is their disdain just a matter or disliking Hayden Ballantyne? Cat’s players like to hit him for some reason as evidenced by the most overrated full back the game has seen. Cat’s fans like to call for him to be burnt on a stick as evidenced by their parochial chants of BUUUU-RNS in recent match ups.



So the question remains, is it Crowley, Ballantyne or Solomon? Is it because Geelong doesn’t have a nice café strip? Is our wharf better? Or are Geelong folk genuinely just upset because their town is a bogan backwater town and their citizens are all meth head bogans?
 
Freo Forwards & Cats Backs

Likely Line up
Geelong Back line
B: Mackie, Taylor, Rivers
HB: Lonergan, Enright, C Guthrie
Possible Reinforcements: Kelly, Varcoe, Podsiadly, Motlop, Bartel

Fremantle Forward Line
F:Ballantyne, Sandilands , Walters
HF: de Boer, Pavlich, Mayne
Reinforcements: Mundy, Fyfe, Clarke, Barlow


Key Areas
The cats zone defence\loose man
The cats will continually drop off their man to help a team mate, if we become too predictable going forward then they will take mark after mark. Rivers, Taylor, Lonergan and Mackie are all 190cm's plus and Enright is 186cm's. We must lower our vision and if Pav has two on him, then hit up de Boer or Mayne.

When we played Adelaide we had 33 inside 50's for 20 scoring shots. I expect us to be aware of this zoning technique and to lower our eyes and hit the open target like we did versus Adelaide and Port Adelaide.

Ross Lyon mentioned Port played similar to Geelong, so I had a look at the game highlights. The key moment for me is around the 3 minute mark when Danyle Pearce lowers his eyes and sees there is no one free in the forward 50 and then passes to Pav, who handballs to Zac Clark who kicks the goal. This is exactly what we need to do versus Geelong


Ross Lyon quote Post match vs Adelaide - We just thought, we won’t kick it to them, look off our line and lower our eyes. It was 14 marks to seven, eight marks to three. So we will take it and move on.

Geelong's lack of Small Defenders
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-new...ng-for-selection/story-e6frfkp9-1226709067323
Ash McGrath tormented the Cats' taller back half, there were sighs around Simonds Stadium. The Cats missed the underrated youngster who has grown in stature by the week in 2013. He may well return against the Dockers and could be handed one of footy's most niggling assignments - minding Hayden Ballantyne.

I expect Guthrie to come back in to take one of Ballas or Walters, but unless Mackie can hold the other one, he could kick 3-4. I rate Ballas and Walters a lot higher than I rate Ash McGrath.

Matchups
Sandilands - Lonergan - I expect Sandilands to stay close to goal when he is playing in the forward line, hopefully forcing Lonergan to be accountable. Sandilands has 15+ cm's height advantage, so he has to make this count as once the ball hits the ground Lonergan should be able to run off him.
Pavlich - Taylor - Taylor has been in brilliant form, and he held Tippett very well. We know Pavlich wants this so badly, and I expect him to lift like he did last year although that was against Lonergan. If Pavlich can kick 3 or 4, then we will be a big chance to win this.
Mayne - Rivers - Should be a close battle. We must hit Mayne up if Rivers zones off.
Ballantyne - C Guthrie - If Ballantyne can get on top of Guthrie I do not see another player they can move onto him, Maybe Mackie or Enright. See below for more info.
Walters - A Mackie -If Walters can get on top of Mackie I do not see another player they can move onto him except maybe Guthrie or Enright. See below for more info. ()
De Boer - Bartel - De Boer has to keep Bartel accountable, and to make sure he isn't allowed to play the general role. I expect de Boer to

Enright - Will play the loose man in defence. Expect him to switch on Ballas or Walters if one of them get the upper-hand. He will spend the rest of the day sitting in front of Pav and trying to pick up intercept marks.

Ballantyne\Walters - Have been in great form the last 4 games, but really need to step up to the next level in a big final. There were question marks on Pavlich going into this game last year, and he delivered but this year we cannot rely on Pav to kick 6. If we are to win, they must kick at least 4 goals between them. I expect Guthrie and Mackie to take both of these players, although I am not sure either of them have the speed to match them. If Ballas can get goal side then I think he should be able to out run them.

How can the Fremantle forward line help Fremantle Win
Fremantle must have a great spread of goal kickers. It is important that Fyfe, Barlow, Mundy, Hill and Pearce all get forward and at least provide an option or kick a running goal. Fyfe and Mundy have been consistently pushing forward and kicking goals and this needs to continue this week.
The delivery into the forward line must be great, poor delivery means the ball will rebound quickly and put the rest of the team under pressure.

Our forward pressure must be excellent, if it is not excellent then the Cats will rebound quickly and put the rest of the team under pleasure.

We need to maintain structure and space in our forward line. I would back Pav vs Taylor, Sandilands vs Lonergan, Ballas vs Guthrie and Walters vs Mackie to win the 1v1 5 times out of ten, and breakeven 2 more times out of ten. (Assuming the delivery is good)
de Boer, Mayne, Walters and Ballantyne must put on a huge amount of forward pressure and Pav and Sandilands must help where possible.

Sandilands and\or Pavlich need to take a few marks early, as this will force Geelong to get the extra man back and open up the forward 50 for other people.

Bartel has been playing as a loose man in defence, it is important he isnt allowed too much freedom. I expect de Boer to be moved to him, and ensure he doesn't have any space all night.

How can the Geelong back line help Geelong Win
The Geelong has one of the most experience and tall back line in the AFL. They know exactly where to place themselves to have the greatest chance of getting an uncontested mark and will zone off Fremantle players if they are not in a dangerous position.
If the Cats can take a large number of marks in their backline and rebound quickly, then it will limit the number of crumbing goals we can get and put pressure on our midfield and defence to get the ball back.

Harry Taylor is an elite defender, and Lonergan is also very good. If Harry Taylor gets on top of Pavlich and Lonergan gets on top of Sandilands, and then Pavlich and Sandilands allow them to run out our forward line unmanned it will be a long day.

Either Enright or Mackie will be loose man (there is no chance RTB will let Bartel be the loose man), they have to make sure they are getting full use of this extra man as we know how good Michael Johnson or Paul Duffield can be in this role.
 
Likely changes leading into the match, including WAFL, VFL potential inclusions
Fremantle
Oh boy, where do I even begin? Round 23 of the season and Fremantle made a massive 12 changes, giving a number of stars and first team players a rest. History will show the team on the park got an absolute belting, but tactically most believe it was a sound decision.
Likely changes to the team that played the Saints in round 23 are as follows:

INS
David Mundy, Michael Barlow, Nat Fyfe, Hayden Ballantyne, Michael Walters, Zac Clarke, Michael Johnson, Luke McPharlin, Zac Dawson, Chris Mayne, Lee Spurr, Nick Suban, Steven Hill.

This is essentially the ‘core nucleus’ of our midfield and backlines, minus a few key players such as Mick Barlow, Duff and Danyle Pearce, a number of whom have missed games recently and could be considered slightly fresher. A few individuals are under possible injury clouds, and might be considered less likely to get up, including Steven Hill, Michael Walters and Nick Suban. The most critical inclusion here, and the biggest question mark in my mind, is over Luke McPharlin. We are all aware that he is an amazing athlete, but can he step back into a finals intensity game after the time he has had off? Time will tell.
OUTS
Clancee Pearce, Peter Faulks, Jesse Chrichton, Josh Mellington, Alex Forster, Hayden Crozier, Matthew Taberner, Alex Silvagni, Jack Hannath, Craig Moller, Josh Simpson, Tom Sheridan (possible), Cameron Sutcliffe (possible), Lachie Neale (possible).

Well, a lot of players are going out of the side, that much is obvious. 10 out of 13 are obvious choices, assuming all of the ins get up. The last three are more difficult. I think it will be Lachie Neale that stays in, having been a proven performer over the last month or so. He’s also a harder body than Sheridan and Sutcliffe, and more likely to be able to handle finals pressure.

Overall, the difference between this week and last week is like night and day. A massive injection of rested, quality players into the side, all of whom will be primed for a week one finals win.

Just for the record:
Players who played last week and will play again this week are likely to be:
Matthew Pavlich, Danyle Pearce, Matt de Boer, Tendai Mzungu, Ryan Crowley, Michael Barlow, Aaron Sandilands, Paul Duffield, Lachie Neale.


539w.jpg

An artist's impression of Fremantle's reinforcements arriving for this week's game.


002842-luke-mcpharlin.jpg

The king returns!


Geelong
After last week’s close call against Brisbane, don’t expect too many changes from the cats leading into this week’s final. The Cats have had a relatively stable side for the last few weeks. Paul Chapman has returned from injury and appears to have had no problems readjusting to the tempo of AFL football. A couple of selection headaches are posed for the cats, including whether to risk an underdone and clearly injured Hawkins in a final, whether Taylor Hunt stays in, as he has a history of completely neutralising Steven Hill in past encounters, and whether Bliclavs comes up from an apparent concussion last week. The ruck appears to be a key weakness for Geelong, and it will be interesting to see whether they attempt to remedy this at the selection table, or concede the battle and simply look to shark taps.

INS
Guthrie, Vardy

OUTS
Hawkins, West, T.Hunt, Bliclavs (concussion)

These seem to be the possible ins and outs that keep coming up on the Geelong board.
Nobody wants to say that Hawkins might be an out, but everyone has seen the effect that carrying injured players into the finals can have. I’d suggest an injured Hawkins would be a perfect first up matchup for a returning McPharlin, and if his mobility is limited would provide excellent opportunity for McPharlin to run off him and rebound at will. On the flip side, he’s such a dangerous forward target that even his presence might allow opportunities for Podsiadly and others to take advantage of.

Vardy seems to be the preferred ruck/forward option for most Cats fans, and it seems if he comes in, it will either be for West, or for Bliclavs if he fails a concussion test. I must admit I haven’t seen him play much, and I’m not sure how he would match up on the Sandi/Clarke combination. However, he is listed at 198cm and would give away significant height to both of our rucks.

Guthrie appears to come in for Taylor Hunt, who has not managed to regain any form after an injury layoff earlier this season.

716690-tom-hawkins.jpg

Tom Hawkins is in doubt, with the club unsure if can find a sports bra that provides adequate support to his growing womanhood.
 
I think there might be some biff

There will be plenty of biff. Geelong will instigate it at or before the first bounce to try and rattle our boys. They will then try it on again when they fall behind and begin to get desperate. The MRP may have to sit until Wednesday to hear all the charges.
 
They were at pains not to get carried away last time, although they were targeting Crowley and Ballas with some physicality. This alone would make me like to see SCNOS retained. Shame Clancee won't be there too.
 
Motlop, Christensen, Stokes, Johnson, Chapman, Varcoe ... I think this group is our main concern. Our bigger/slower mids like Crowley, Mundy, Fyfe and Barlow should be able to match it with Corey, Kelly, Bartel, Selwood. But do we have enough to go with the other guys? Of course Geelong have to worry about Walters, Hill, Pearce, Ballantyne ... but I think the scales are tipped in the Cat's favour. Geelong has more talent in the smalls, can we overcome/stifle it with our gameplan?

I think the odds are a good reflection of the likelihood of us winning the game. Think/hope we have the potential to do it, but hard to see it happening. Hoping Pav has a blinder and the Cats are slightly off the boil, just like last year.
 

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Coaches

Ross Lyon:

Ross Lyon (46) begun his apprenticeship at the Fitzroy Football Club, moving to Brisbane for a couple of games, before retiring due to injury. Ross was a decent AFL player, playing 129 games over a 10 year career (1985-95). After retirement, RTB accepted an assistant coaching role to Robert Walls at Richmond in 1996 before moving to Carlton in 2000. He spent five years working under Parkin and Pagan before joining Paul Roos at Sydney in 2004.

It is by this stage that RTB was developing well as a coach and had significant input to the structures and tactics that took Sydney to a premiership in 2005 and a grand final appearance in 2006. His talents were recognised by the St Kilda board during 2006, who appointed him to replace Grant Thomas for the 2007 season and beyond. While coaching at St Kilda, RTB operated with a 64.5% winning record, easily the most successful coach for St Kilda in their history.

While at St Kilda RTB took time to drill his players to adopt his style of play, a style that after missing the finals in 2007, would see the club reach a Pre-Lim in 2008 and then back to back grand finals in 2009 and 2010, that would ultimately fall agonisingly short of a premiership.

Due to a number of incidents at St Kilda, RTB decided to leave their club after a disappointed 2011 season, heading to Fremantle on a four year deal. RTB approached this young and exciting club with a plan in place. He would go on to break the habits of the undisciplined squad, using all the experience he gained at St Kilda to drill the young men into high quality AFL players. RTB has developed a reputation for turning around the careers of average players. Examples of this are Ryan Crowley, Clancee Pearce, Zac Dawson and Michael Walters.

Fremantle appear to be tracking very similarly to St Kilda during RTBs tenure, albeit quicker. The Freo players have fully bought in to the Lyon game plan and have a firm belief they can beat anyone anywhere anytime. Ross is known for being a no excuses coach and is tactically very strong.





For a few of RTBs favourite quotes, have a look here: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/ross-lyonisms.1018265/

Chris Scott:

Chris Scott (37) began his career in 1994 after being drafted by the Brisbane Bears. He would go on to play 215 games over a 14 year career (1994-2007). Scott was a tough, uncompromising defender who played in two premierships (2001, 02) and won the AFL Rising Star in 1994. After retiring in 2007, Scott immediately joined the Fremantle coaching panel under Mark Harvey. Scott received significant credit for the improved performance of Fremantle players during his tenure, with some commentators suggesting he was a better coach than the Harvey, and had significant input to the successful 2010 season.

Scott's talent was identified by Geelong, who appointed him head coach at the conclusion of the 2010 season after Mark Thompson announced he no longer wished to coach the Cats. Scott’s coaching career got off to a flying start, taking Geelong to the 2011 premiership flag in his initial year as coach. Scott is known to be a very astute coach who is able to read in game situations clearly and respond adequately. Under Scott Geelong are never considered to be out of the contest and have a never give up attitude that means you can never discount this team.



The Battle at the Bridge:

One of the most important battles on the day will be between the coaching panels. Each will be doing what they can to outsmart the other at both team selection, match ups and in game switches. Will RTB implement a run and gun approach, similar to the game plan that destroyed Port Adelaide, or will he demand a more defensive game plan and keep the scores low? Both teams can play different styles of football, the choice of which style to adopt and the reactions of both coaches to in game scenarios could be the deciding factor in this game.
 
Depth 17-22 players

" I always feel that it's the 15-22 in a team that determines the outcome of a grand final". Paul Roos 2013
How right Paul Roos is, just look at last year's Grand finalists. On paper Hawthorn had the better side, but it was the unheralded Swans players such as, Mitch Morton, Nick Smith, Mike Pyke, Alex Johnson and Craig Bird that played pivotal roles in winning the 2012 premiership. This weekend's game between Fremantle and Geelong will feature many household names from both sides. But the game may be won depending on how the players at the lower ends of both sides perform.
Fremantle



#13 Tendai Mzungu
Strongly built midfielder capable of pushing forward and playing inside or outside. Can also play a run with role and has been very consistent for the second half of the season.
#5 Garrick Ibbotson
Good defender capable of playing a 3rd man up roll or playing a lockdown role. Very good overhead mark and reliable kick. Only concern with Ibbotson will be his match fitness heading into the game.
#27 Lachie Neale
Ball magnet that has been likened to Hawthorns Sam Mitchell. Quick hands, good kick and is a clearance king. Very capable of kicking goals from stoppages.

#8 Nick Suban
Touted as a future captain of the club and Wears Shaun McManus's old number 8, Nick Suban may be the wildcard for Freo come finals time. Strongly built, Courageous, tough and a penetrating left foot, Suban has all the tools to become an elite midfielder and will be pivotal if Freo are to beat the cats.
#9 Matt De Boer
De Boer rounds out a Fremantle forward line devoted to forward pressure. Heart and soul player, great leadership qualities, tough as nails and would be the first person picked to head to the trenches with.
562162-matt-de-boer.jpg


#34 Lee Spurr
Tough, Good kick and a reliable 1 on 1 defender. Spurr had to come through the SANFL and has been a favourite of Ross since debuting in 2012. His long kicks out to the wing are very important to Fremantle's game and he also takes the big intercept marks when the games on the line.

Unlucky
Tom Sheridan
Cam Sutcliffe
Jack Hannath
Hayden Crozier





Geelong



#22 Mitch Duncan
Good young midfielder, capable of pushing forward and kicking a goal, vital part of Geelongs midfield rotation.
#35 Paul Chapman
Norm Smith medalist, all class is Chappy, knows how to kick a goal and will be looking to push forward to test the two way runners Fremantle have in the team.

#23 Josh Caddy
Struggled early in the year after moving over from Gold Coast late last year. But has really come on in the last few weeks, Tough bodied midfielder who loves winning the contested ball.
#29 Cam Guthrie
The bloke who wears Geelong royalties number on his back, Cam Guthrie has had a terrific year down back, keeping duel premiership defender Josh Hunt out for much of this season.
#25 Jared Rivers
Very underrated defender is the former rising star winner. Great get for Geelong during the off season, as Rivers can play a variety of rolls which includes lock down key defender or a rebounding half back flanker in the Andrew Mackie role.
#5 Travis Varcoe
Absolute jet when he is up and going is Varcoe, he is all class, a smooth mover and will be a wildcard for Geelong throughout the finals.
Unlucky
George Horlin Smith
Jordan Murdoch
Billy Smedts
Trent West.
 
I know Chapman has been injured, but how the hell do you put him in the bottom 6 for Geelong? More like best 6, with potential to be BOG if he hits his stride.
 
Gee they have some talent in their bottom 6, especially when talents like Murdoch cant get a game. We need to put a clamp on Mitch Duncan, her scores a lot of goals late in qtrs/matches and is a potential match winner.
 
Fremantle Backs versus Geelong Forwards

achilles-tendon.jpg


Achilles. Our weakness. A single word that may yet describe the clash between our backs and the Geelong forwards.

How is it possible that the main threat to the best defensive team in the league in a big final is our defence, the very thing that has gotten us to where we are? Well the answer is Achilles, or more to the point the Achilles of two of our best mid sized defenders.

It is pretty hard to look at the breadth of talent in the small to mid sized Cats forwards and work out how we can contain them with Clancee and Ibbo out. More than ever, the midfield will need to make it happen. If the Cats can move the ball quickly and get some clean entry, we simply don’t have the defenders to contain them.



Motlop, Varcoe, Chapman, Stokes, SJ, Duncan and Christensen will all be rotated through the forward line at various points. All are potential matchwinners on their day and we can’t and won’t even try to shut them all down playing man on man. Add to that Selwood who has gone forward more in the second half of this year and uses his strength and infuriating ability to draw soft free kicks to pinch a couple of goals, and you can see the problem.

The talls

First the good news, their tall forwards are slow, injured, overrated or all of the above. McPharlin on Hawkins is the obvious matchup. Luke is within a few centimetres of technically being another Achilles victim, there would have to be some doubt about him entering this match, but he will have Hawkins covered. Some talk on the Geelong board that Hawkins could be dropped, but Scott has made it pretty clear he wants him to play. Hawkins got away from Luke at Simonds earlier this year, but it won’t happen again.

Dawson did a good job on Hawkins in the final last year, but do not be surprised if Vardy plays most of the game forward and if so he will be matched by Dawson. Zac will have his measure and do his usual job at setting us up structurally, but this will mean that Johnson goes to Pods, and I think Geelong would love to engineer this matchup if they could. Pods will then spend most of his time sacrificing his own game by leading into the pockets and wings to draw Johnson away from the play. MJ has been brilliant this year at zoning off his man to be the plus one at contests, and then create when we have the ball to launch attacks from half back. I think Scott will try and nullify him.

The mid-smalls

See above, has me scared. Spurr will play on Motlop and will have the one true shut down role. Duffield will try and take the guy we think will not run very hard the other way, Varcoe looks to me like he still is not running as he was pre-injury and could be the one.

The question is which of our midfielders will play more off half back, so that in the same way Geelong rotate SJ/Duncan/Stokes forward we will be rotating mids back. We can expect to see Suban, Mzungu, Hill and DPearce behind the ball at various times, maybe Sutcliffe if he plays. Suban looks like a good match for Chappy.

The unknowns

Will the match committee be as petrified as I am of the potency of Geelongs mid-smalls, and play an extra shutdown defender in Silvagni or Chrichton?
Will Geelong play Bartel forward? He has been brilliant for them behind the ball but he could be given a specific job on Duffield.

The projected matchups
Spurr McPharlin Dawson
Motlop Hawkins Vardy

Duffield Johnson Suban
Varcoe Podsiadily Chapman


The summary

In Greek legend, Achilles eventually died via his vulnerable heel, but he did a hell of a lot of damage along the way. Simonds stadium can be our gates of Troy, but a bit of help from our midfield to stop those little Geelong Trojans won’t hurt
 
As much as it will be heresy to many, when it comes to shutting down the Geelong smalls, Mullet man Crighton didn't do a bad job on Milne last week.
 
Great write up mattis117 I think the only thing you neglected mention was Bartel.

He is probably top 3 in our BnF playing as an mostly attacking lose defender. I think Enright will play a lock down role on either Balla or Walters with Mackie and Bartel roaming. This might be the job for De Boar rather than Enright.
 

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